Anybody win with the Russian ?

[NavalNewZ]

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[squatter]

Okay, don't want to be to blame for putting people off from posting AARs. Apologies for rudeness/boastfulness/put downs. Have removed offending material from earlier posts.

I really think people should be clear about the odds in question though.

I needed to retake Mogilev from a long-range sneak attack by soviet cavalry. Two regiments sat unentrenched on the hex. For my first effort I lined up odds that meant I needed EITHER an overrrun (with a 3,4, or 5) OR a retreat (for which I needed a 3, 4, or 5 on another dice.) So I had two seperate 50-50 chances of taking the hex. The overall probability of success for me making one or other was thus 75%. I made the roll and retook the hex. In fact, in the end, I made both rolls, which was unneccessary, but welcome. In the follow up attack on the retreat hex, I lucked out with a six to force another retreat, and ultimate death of the cavalry and their support units. This was also welcome, but unneccessary as the cavalry had been sent on a suicide mission deep into enemy territory, were instantly surrounded, and their HQ destroyed, meaning that they would not be able to go anywhere even had they survived. The whole cavalry attack was a desperate lunge to steal some points for sitting on Mogilev for a turn, doomed to failure 75% of the time (and this doesnt even factor in my follow-on forces that would have attacked the mogilev hex once again had the first attack failed).

In this instance, the player who lost the cavalry should be looking at how he has used and deployed his units as the reason for their loss, not the dice. Blaming the dice is both a dig at how well the game is built, and at the prowess of your opponent. I want to stick up for both.

I doubt if anyone's even bothered to read through this latest bout of self-justifying drivel from me, but if you have, thank you.

And in the spirit of not wanting to lessen the amount of AARs around, I may even do one myself.

[Carl Myers]

But the rest of the story would be interesting, the die rolls between the close combat die roll and the retreat die roll, what were the outcomes of Direct Attack die roll and Direct Defense die roll?

[ComradeP]

Interesting observation that on two die rolls that your opponent got what had a 25% chance of happening. But the rest of the story would be interesting, the die rolls between the close combat die roll and the retreat die roll, what were the outcomes of Direct Attack die rolls and Direct Defense die roll?

I can't run the replay now as I haven't completed the turn, I'll get back to you on that. From memory, I believe mostly my units in the marshes Northwest of Smolensk made their Direct Defence roll and the other units didn't.

In this instance, the player who lost the cavalry should be looking at how he has used and deployed his units as the reason for their loss, not the dice. Blaming the dice is both a dig at how well the game is built, and at the prowess of your opponent. I want to stick up for both.

In a direct sense, I of course blame the dice for their loss, as it was what caused it, but I naturally didn't expect my cavalry to survive.

It was, by no means, a desperate lunge. Having a feeling that there would be no combat unit in Mogilev, I thought that maybe I could capture it for a turn, which would give me 200 points and lose you 5. The cavalry units are only worth 3 VP's each, so for a maximum loss of 26 VP's if the HQ and the cavalry all died, I could gain 205 points (points withheld from the enemy also count) and that's for no casualties on the German side. I killed an HQ and a security battalion, which gave me 105 points. The incursion also diverted the strength of an infantry division and assorted support units from the front. I also cut off one, possibly two, supply sources and one OMA. An OMA where, according to the arrival schedule, units were supposed to arrive.

Thus far, the incursion has cost me 20 VP's and I've gained 105. Given the minimal chance that all my cavalry would die (and the 2 regiments that didn't go to Mogilev are still alive), it was certainly worth the risk and the loss of units that come back.

[squatter]

Fair enough, I take back the 'desperate lung' comment.

When you beat me by 100 points you can refer me back to my pompous comments on your tactics!

[hank]

Now that I've reached turn 7 against the Axis AI (historical AOs and recommended strength level) I can see the frustration playing as Ruskies.  The Axis is ahead by ~850 but projected the Russians should win by nearly 9000.  Now that's going to be a challenge.

At turn 7 they still have a long way to go before taking Damidov, Mstlovl(?), and Smolensk.  But I have found a couple of things I don't like.
The russians only get one artillery strike on a hex.  The Axis gets three.  Why is this?  That really handicaps the Russians.

Also, I've had several units get caught by overruns and they suddenly lose the ability to move.  These are foot soldiers, they still have bullets and jerry cans but can't move a single hex.  I would think as long as they have supply they could at least move a hex or two.  Sure they're cut off from further supply but for the turn after they get isolated they should be able to move a little. (are they just frozen in terror)

Other than that ... its a real slaughter goin' on.  Hope I can hang on to enough units to finish the game.

regards

[ComradeP]

The russians only get one artillery strike on a hex. The Axis gets three. Why is this? That really handicaps the Russians.

Poor Soviet artillery doctrine is probably the main culprit, although I'm not sure why the Soviets get 2 artillery strikes/hex on turn 11. It might be because of the historical counterattack, but that started earlier.

The Germans also have several heavy artillery units split up into battalions, which is one of the reasons why they have so many artillery units.

I would think as long as they have supply they could at least move a hex or two.

That's probably due to OP penalties from adjacent enemy units, mixed with interdiction and/or artillery residue. Rifle Regiments only have 18 OP's, so they can quickly get stuck somewhere.

[hank]

two more turns and the score is still holding ... but I really am starting to wonder if I will have any units left to defend Smolensk with in another 10 turns.
 
I can live with the foot soldiers losing their movement capability after overrun but I think doctrine for Soviet artillery can be modelled differently.  Instead of simply restricting them to only one shot at a hex per turn make the die rolls higher to mimic their lack of effectiveness (if that's what its suppose to be doing).
 
If I want to roll the dice time after time to get a 5 or 6, at least I have that option.   ... just my 2 pennies FWIW

[TheWombat_matrixforum]

I finished my first game (against the AI) as the Russians. I won handily, without even a moment's doubt about the outcome. Which is odd for me, as I generally suck pretty badly. The key seemed to be the failure of the Germans to take the front line cities expeditiously. Whether do to luck or whatever, they took a long time to take the cities, particularly Mogilev and Orsha, so that I was able to rack up the big points after turns four and five. They only took Mstislavl on the last turn, and I retook it with a counterattack; they never got close to taking Smolensk or Yartsevo.

This was probably a combination of bad die rolls, the difficulty of the AI handling a long attack plan, and maybe some good luck on my part with some of my local counterattacks, but I did find a boatload of German arty units waaaaay back at the western edge of the map when I examined the map after the game ended. A lot of smaller units scattered between the front lines and the map edge, seemingly doing--nothing. But as the AI routinely kicks my butt when I'm playing the Germans, I'm loathe to criticize it. And I'll have to try another go as the Russians (where I'll probably die horribly).

I think though that even when winning as the Russians it can require a certain mindset to avoid becoming demoralized. Some of your units are not quite ready for prime time, and really melt away. But infantry + AT/armor + engineers + NKVD in a city hex are damn hard to winkle out.

[ComradeP]

The German AI often attacks Soviet units with 1 or 2 units, which can in some cases kill the attacker. I'm surprised the Soviet AI seems to be better than the german AI, especially as the armies in reserve need to be moved to the front, which would seem to be a more complex operation than moving from West to East. I guess the lack of AO's really hinders the AI, because it will just crawl all over the map like in the DB series.

[TheWombat_matrixforum]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

The German AI often attacks Soviet units with 1 or 2 units, which can in some cases kill the attacker. I'm surprised the Soviet AI seems to be better than the german AI, especially as the armies in reserve need to be moved to the front, which would seem to be a more complex operation than moving from West to East. I guess the lack of AO's really hinders the AI, because it will just crawl all over the map like in the DB series.

I think you may be correct. In the post-game inspection of the map, I found German units scattered all over Mother Russia (perhaps they were hunting for black bread or borscht or something). The Germans I was able to kill (as opposed to those that killed themselves, as it were) were little one and two step units left by themselves or in small stacks adjacent to rather large gatherings of Ivans. Toss in some artillery and being easily able to trade step for step losses, and poof! Vanishing Germans.

Still, it's very unnerving to watch your units evaporate before the German advance. The AI does a good job sometimes in exploiting all the attacks and movement capabilities of the attackers, even if it doesn't seem to be as capable of rooting out dug in defenders as a real person--the focus isn't there, as one would expect of course. Truth be told, I'll be playing mostly as the German against the AI, so it's ok that the game gives a better fight that way. I think the AI actually benefits from the restrictive AOs, as it helps channel and guide its actions in effect.

[ComradeP]

I think the AI actually benefits from the restrictive AOs, as it helps channel and guide its actions in effect.

It helps the Soviet AI a lot, I'm pretty sure of that, but the Germans basically have no AO's, which seems to thoroughly confuse the AI like in the DB series.

There are lessons to be learned from victory and from defeat, but I'm learning quite a lot by playing against Squatter, even though my chances of managing to get a draw are dropping/non-existent. I'd be pretty happy with a German marginal victory or a low point Decisive Victory too at this point. Some of my cities fell like domino stones, way earlier than I had hoped/predicted.

Although I've held most objectives except for Smolensk (far) longer than the Soviet player in the official AAR, I guess my losses and the reasonably low German losses due to a lower than expected attrition are the really crippling thing when it comes to the total score. Or maybe the German losses were really significant in the game detailed in the official AAR.

[Gregor_SSG]

Interesting thread, I can't wait to see the outcome of the AAR. One thing I would say is that it would be hard to draw definite conclusions on some issues until a few games have been played.

On the question of Soviet Artillery, they are restricted to one shot per hex precisely to simulate the situation in which the Soviets found themselves.

I remember that before the First Gulf War some people in Australia had looked up Janes and worked out that Saddam Hussein had purchased some fearsome artillery (South African from memory) and were wringing their hands over potential Allied casulaties.

Now its true that Saddam had some good guns. What he lacked was a front line that would stand still, reliable information about the location of the enemy, adequate command and control to order the guns into action against an actual target, robust mechanisms for spotting and correcting fire or a logistics system capable of resupplying guns that did manage to fire at something. As a result, his guns were worthless.

The Soviets face all these problems, to varying degrees, which is why their guns are limited in the game.

Gregor

[ComradeP]

Gregor, does Roger recall how many units he lost in the official AAR game? The total losses were not mentioned or shown.

[hank]

Game Over

Soviets win an overwhelming victory (+1898 points) I was deeply concerned around turn 12 or 13 I was going to loose too many units to defend Smolensk and the few objectives I still held. I was very careful to preserve my three elite divisions and had all but two units were alive on turn 20 (one TD and one Arty got killed about mid game)
(setup:  recommended level, historic AO for Axis, no AO for me)

some stats:

                Soviet        Axis
VPs             6905          5007
Towns/VP    71/6170     122/2075
Forts/VP      0/    0         21/   42
KIA/VP        21/ 735      375/2890

Die Avgs
Close C        3.57           3.51
Direct F       3.55           3.71
Retreat        4.07           3.29
Arty/Air       3.64           3.43

If the scenario lasted another 10 or 20 turns, Smolensk would fall with what's left of the Soviet units still alive and in the oob (which is what happened obviously). If more elite units (gold) could arrive the soviets may be able to counterattack and hold back the Hitlerites but there are only three elite divisions (127th RD, 24th RD, and 17th TD).  Counter attacking with any of the other units is tough if not impossible in most situations.  You have to use the mechanized and tank divisions and with bad rolls you'll lose many steps that you can't afford.

A fun game it was.  I'm doing it again as Axis this time.

I made screen shots of my victory screen and map but don't have the time to figure out how to post it.  Off to work I go.

[TheWombat_matrixforum]

I think it's a very good challenge for the Soviet player to manage the artillery--you have a lot of them, but they aren't individually as effective as the German arty, and the frequency of German breakthroughs means you lose a lot of battalions to marauding Nazis. But the heavier Soviet guns in particular can be crucial for breaking up German attacks on key cities, so you have to figure out how to best use them.

And I agree, questions about the AI won't be answered before many more games are played. I'm pretty happy with the challenge right now, as I lack the patience to be meticulous and the AI, even as the Germans, makes me pay for my impatience.

ORIGINAL: Gregor_SSG

Interesting thread, I can't wait to see the outcome of the AAR. One thing I would say is that it would be hard to draw definite conclusions on some issues until a few games have been played.

On the question of Soviet Artillery, they are restricted to one shot per hex precisely to simulate the situation in which the Soviets found themselves.

I remember that before the First Gulf War some people in Australia had looked up Janes and worked out that Saddam Hussein had purchased some fearsome artillery (South African from memory) and were wringing their hands over potential Allied casulaties.

Now its true that Saddam had some good guns. What he lacked was a front line that would stand still, reliable information about the location of the enemy, adequate command and control to order the guns into action against an actual target, robust mechanisms for spotting and correcting fire or a logistics system capable of resupplying guns that did manage to fire at something. As a result, his guns were worthless.

The Soviets face all these problems, to varying degrees, which is why their guns are limited in the game.

Gregor

[jjdenver]

EDIT: apparently the AAR is not over so ignore this post.

[ComradeP]

My AAR? That isn't over, we're at turn 14.

Due to a number of festivities in the Netherlands, the last two weeks have been fairly hectic and went by rather quickly, which is why there have been no updates for a while.

[Tempest_slith]

Comrade P said:

Gregor, does Roger recall how many units he lost in the official AAR game? The total losses were not mentioned or shown.


The Axis lost 120 units for 5180 VPs and the Soviets 482 units for 3531 VPs in the official AAR.

The Axis lost rate is misleading, as I had the luxury of spending 3 or 4 hours on a turn vs 1 hour for Roger. My experience in other games is a careful Axis can keep his losses down to 3 or less a turn.

[ComradeP]

In my game, Axis losses stand at around 60 for 2700 points and my losses are 444 units for around 3300 points.

120 Axis KIA's is pretty impressive, even if most of them are 2 step recon/pioneer units.