Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Keunert

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:04 am

Turn 4, A deep line of defense....[:(]

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:12 am

turn 4, north. Huge pocket [:D]. Hope Keunert won"t break it again [8|]

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:20 am

Turn 4, south

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:12 pm

Turn 5, 6 July
Here is a screenshot of my oil reserves. Sounds good to me because I have use for the past 8 days all my units (air, tanks...).
OKH gave me a minor objective, the first one: Take Rowenku for 1 pp...
Here are the lost so far : (German / soviet )

men 25 900 / 105 000
Dive Bomber 30 / 45
Fighters 50 / 125
Level Bomber 30 / 50

Guns 200 / 1315

Heavy tank 0 / 100
Medium tank 295 / 260
Light tank 60 / 220

The losses are heavy but I can now say that around 60 soviets units are encircle and will surrender in a few days !

I was happy when I saw that Keunert decided finaly to withdraw and let my huge pocket close...

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:18 pm

Turn 6, Bataille navale
Keunert joue avec mes nerfs ! [:@] . I think that I have won the first week of this campaign but I have definitly lose the naval war. I will ask the luftwaffe to sunk those insolent soviet ships.

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:41 pm

Turn 6, north

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:42 pm

Turn 6. I follow the order of OKH, Let's drive to Rowenku

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:48 pm

Turn6 south

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:52 pm

Turn 6. Von Manstein should launch his operation in two turns. Look at all those command points. I don't know yet if I will use all those cps and the 11A and try to take Rostov in a front assault. It could be very costly. I will do some recon above the city next turn.

balto · Post by **balto** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 3:38 pm

Post 24. I do not think that OOB window is what you lost. I think what that represents what you need to be at 100% (I think this may be referred to as the TOE, but I am not sure).

Unless you started with your units at 100% (which I am positive you did not), then that tool is not as useful as it could be. If there were four numbers instead of two numbers it would be very useful -- For example (1) showing what 100% of the forces should be (the way it is now), then (2) what you started the scenario with (not shown), (3) how many were replacements (not shown), and (4) what you have now (the way it is now). With the addition of numbers (2) and (3) you would be able to see what you have lost in battle and where you need to use PPs to request units.

As far as the Naval warfare in the south-- Forget it. Even if you had paid attention, the Soviet Navy is about 10 times stronger than yours. And to use Air on them is a waste. Not only are the Cruisers and Battleships armed with great AA, only the Stukas can put a small dent in those behemoths. And you need those Stukas for the land.., so just take a zero on the Naval fire and keep units away from the coast when you can. AIR can help you with Transports and unescorted subs and torpedo boats, but none of those can bombard, so forget it.

Please keep this up, its great. Back to your comment about your Post #4, I still do not see any references to how you calculate the 3 to 1. You mention 140 to 40, I do not see anything. Related to this, is 3 to 1 the MAGIC number for you?

As I read your posts, you seem to feel Entrenchment is a THE BIGGEST factor for the Soviets. Am I understanding your comments correctly?

balto · Post by **balto** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 3:41 pm

Also, see that Gamble card under Manstein. I have never had that fail, but it can. When it works, man, you get a HUGE bonus. Give it a whirl. Of course if it fails and you get negative numbers, well, I will delete this post so it appears you screwed up.

british exil · Post by **british exil** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 8:36 pm

Olivier.

Tres bon. Very intersting AAR, like the way you bring in your thoughts and plans.

Keep up the good work. I'm sure it is enjoyed by many here in the forum.

Bon Voyage.

Mat

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sun Jul 29, 2012 1:59 pm

Balto, you are right about this OOB window. The panzers were not at full at the beginning. I will check that.
I will follow you about this "naval war". But do you think I could fear a soviet amphibious operation in the future ? What should I leave in Crimea ? Some german divisions or only axis allies...Any thoughts would be appreciated !
3 to 1...I have red that when you want to attack, a 3/1 factor is the least that you need...
About entrenchment, I have red (I think ComradeP AAR) that the autoentrenchment of the soviets could be to high...right now I find that everything works good. Now, when I will play the soviet, I will try my best to give enough time to my troops to dig. That what I did when I played the french or polish in DC1 and it works very well.

Thanks british exil, I am in vacation right now so I have the time to do this AAR. Don't hesitate to give your thoughts and maybe a plan so to take Rostov !

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Sun Jul 29, 2012 2:04 pm

The gamble card ! Never tried it ? Will it works every time ? I will do some testing...but if I use it and it fails, you will be good for the "peleton d'execution"

If it works,

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:39 am

8 July,
Less battles now. I played the turn in 1h15 min (the previous one in 1h30).
I begin to clean the pockets.

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:40 am

8 July
Center.

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:47 am

8 July, south

Blind Sniper · Post by **Blind Sniper** » Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:50 pm

Olivier, mirror post from the other AAR:

I would add my compliments too, you are the first players posting the big campaign.
I'm following both AARs therefore I will be neutral.

Congrats for your pockets, you are doing a good job.
How many replacements do you get every turn? Because your losses seem a bit high, every battle that you lost 1000 men is a Russian victory in the long term.

But do you think I could fear a soviet amphibious operation in the future ? What should I leave in Crimea ? Some german divisions or only axis allies...Any thoughts would be appreciated !

I don't know how many units but take into consideration that he controls the sea and can attempt an amphibious operations, not sure if is worth.

olivier34 · Post by **olivier34** » Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:14 pm

hi blind sniper,
i will study my losses closely when I have time. My first 4 turns have been costly. I had to break the front line...turns 6 and 8 of july have been more calm. I have mostly move my units and attack only if I had a good superiority. I have use less oil as well. But the soviets are holding a line, withdrawing in good order. Does my opponent launch to the front every units he can get ? I hope so...
I have played a lot of time Dc1 and I have allways move my forces around if I could instead of attacking. Here, I am not in this situation.
It seems that the taken of Voronetch should be possible without to much fighting. Now, I have not decided if I will launch a full assault toward Rostov. I like to play test the power of von manstein cards in this mission but it will be costly in men. I have test a small attack on this sector but the soviets are in the open. On a town hex if the soviets had time to dig, I know that it will be much more difficult...so I may decide to turn Rostov instead and encircle it. it has to fall the 5th of August.

balto · Post by **balto** » Mon Jul 30, 2012 10:02 pm

Great.

Your post #35. You say that the 11th and 24th Pz take the rail, yet both are not on Rail hexes. How did you do that? And if they just de-railed, wouldn't their readiness be reallly really low - yet you have them at the front lines?

Also in post #35, the two units circled in Blue with the AIR indicator over them. I am a little unclear. It appears that you attacked them by AIR this turn to help you with an attack next turn.., a sort of preliminary air raid. I am sure this caused very few casualties, so I am assuming you did this to lower Entrenchment and Readiness? If that is the case, doesn't the unit recover most of that by next turn?

Post #37, how did you get 2v1? With the Armor, how come that is not a 3 v 1?

Thanks again, looking forward to the next turn.

Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Keunert

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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?