A Grey Steppe Eagle (loki100 vs Vigabrand)

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: morvael

Lovely to see Pavlov executed, like in history. Does not happen often in the game, as there are other candidates with low POL

IMHO the second map is a bit more readable, but this may have to do with clear terrain underneath, rather than opacity settings. Other than that I can't spot many differences.

The shift to the north and center from Ukraine is very visible. Nothing can be helped that LG and Moscow is a priority target in 1941.

Oddly, he seems to go in most of my games. I think its because I leave a number of the weaker commanders in place up to about T6 so they can absorb all the inevitable easy victories the Germans will score (and especially for Western Front there is nothing your command chain can do in any case).

Vigabrand has done a good job eating up SW Front. Its down to the equivalent of just over 2 armies already (26 is sitting empty in the rear), at some stage I'm going to have to send fresh units to this sector but at the moment I'm worried at what is building up around Leningrad

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Under the old airgroup creation rules ,the game you are playing, would not be in your favour .

You have about 1 recon regiment per front (20 ac) versus 14 german aufklarung gruppe (36- 72 aircraft )

+ 4 allied recon groups .

Must confess my only point of comparison is the game against SigUp, at the end we both were running out of recon assets, as sending them into areas where we were engaged in our fighter wars was near suicide. I was back to relying on R-5s ... of course now I'd simply raise as many as I could (given all the other demands on admin pts).

I do really like the air systems for 1.08.02/3. Its just so much easier to ensure that your elite formations have the most modern planes while new squadrons tend to get the second line equipment

ORIGINAL: 821Bobo

ORIGINAL: loki100

...and Konev being transferred from the Caucasus to take control of the freshly raised Reserve Front.

Konev needs to be promoted. Did he not lost any of his valuable stats? I am usually leaving Konev at Caucasus MD as I won't risk it.

I got away with it this time, I find his particular set of stats really fits what I want Reserve Front to do at this stage of the war so it seems a good gamble. Also the chance of finding an army command that might allow him to gain a few wins is a real challenge ... here the no +1 comes into play again. It used to be feasible to build a couple of armies that were useable for sustained counterattacks esp around Moscow and use those to gain rank for selected generals.

[loki100]

Turn 5: 17 – 23 July 1943

Mid July saw a lull in the fighting in the north. The Germans captured Pskov and were only 40 miles to the west of the Narva but seemed unwilling or unable to commence a battle for Leningrad. All the Soviet forces in Northern and North Western Fronts could do was to prepare defensive lines and wait for the inevitable onslaught.

In the centre, there was some fighting around Vitebsk, Mogilev fell and the Germans managed to estabish some small bridgeheads over the Dnepr between Gomel and Mogilev.


Soviet artillery in action near Mogilev



Overall it appeared as if the Germans were content to maintain pressure on the Smolensk-Moscow axis but were either holding back the bulk of their armour for later battles or had weakened AGC to reinforce the drive on Leningrad and the Ukrainian offensive.

The Ukraine saw the final destruction of the Zhitomir-Vinnitsa pocket while their motorised units probed at the outer edges of the Soviet defences from Kiev to Cherkassy.



Mainly due to the destruction of 16 and 26 Armies Soviet losses for the week were 150,000 men, 1200 tanks and 275 planes. The axis forces lost almost 11,000 men, 60 tanks and 55 planes.


AT gun team retreating in the Ukraine

4 Panzer Corps had reached to within 20 miles of Kiev (a fifth was suspected to be to the west of the new Kornin pocket). So far it appeared as if the focus of the German offensive was Kiev and to force the Dnepr. Success here opened the opportunity to attack towards Kharkov or to swing onto the weak southern flank of the formations defending Orel and Bryansk. So far, Soviet evacuation of the industrial regions of the Dnepr bend and the eastern Ukriane continued unhindered.



Overall it appeared as if the situation on the approaches to Leningrad and Moscow had been stabilised. The Soviet front was weak but slowly multiple defensive lines were being prepared.

In the Ukraine, South-Western Front appeared to be on the brink of disaster having lost half its strength in the last few weeks. However, till the industrial evacuation of the Dnepr bend, the Donets and Kharkov was complete, Kirponos had no choice but to try and delay any German attempt to cross the Dnepr.

[morvael]

So he's not going for the Dnepr bend, but rather for a crossing in Kiev. Repaired rail will be faster over the river if he manages to do it, might help southern pincer attacking Moscow. But this gives time to evacuate industry from south-eastern Ukraine. Short term gains, long term losses.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: morvael

So he's not going for the Dnepr bend, but rather for a crossing in Kiev. Repaired rail will be faster over the river if he manages to do it, might help southern pincer attacking Moscow. But this gives time to evacuate industry from south-eastern Ukraine. Short term gains, long term losses.

that is my guess. With one less FBD, operating in the south Ukraine east of the Dnepr is going to be a real challenge against any opposition in 1941.

I think he may well be planning a double envelopment of Moscow - its clear he has committed a lot (3 Pzr corps?) at Leningrad in an attempt to take the city quickly and that I'm only facing relatively limited pressure from AGC at the moment. If so effectively reinforcing AGC from AGS once he's reached Kursk etc is a sound plan.

One reason its actually fun with the Soviets in 1941 is you know that you have to leave one avenue of attack basically undefended so as to concentrate elsewhere.

[morvael]

So maybe less factory evac from the south, more from LG and Moscow?

[swkuh]

Compliments for nicely presented AAR!

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: morvael

So maybe less factory evac from the south, more from LG and Moscow?

Leningrad is pretty empty. Basically between Tula, Kharkov, Stalino and Dnepropetrovsk my logic is I will lose all of one and most of a second. If I can keep it to that, and evacuate most of the smaller industrial sites, I'll do better than I need ... but still struggling to really understand the relationships between HI - arms pts and army size

ORIGINAL: rrbill

Compliments for nicely presented AAR!

thank you

[loki100]

Turn 6: 24-30 July 1941

The last week of July saw the German offensive briefly stall. However, this was less due to an effectve Soviet resistance and more that the July weather proved to be variable. Brief storms hit the main battle front, turning roads to mud.



The result was to allow Stavka to reinforce key sectors. It also, fatally, led to over-confidence that the German offensive was already in trouble. As August was to show, Soviet over-confidence was to lead to a series of major defeats.






(Soviet troops digging in at Novgorod)


(Industrial production)

[JAMiAM]

Nice to see you and your opponent using random weather. I've always hated non-random weather in this game, as it lends itself to a "paint-by-numbers" mentality for the players.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: JAMiAM

Nice to see you and your opponent using random weather. I've always hated non-random weather in this game, as it lends itself to a "paint-by-numbers" mentality for the players.

aye, I agree. Fixed weather is completely unrealistic and provides too much certainty. Random favours the Soviets in 1941 but the Germans later on. There was an AAR between Oshawatt and Stef78 that showed how easy it is for the Soviets to exploit perfect knowledge of the sequence of mud and clear turns in May and early June.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: JAMiAM

Nice to see you and your opponent using random weather. I've always hated non-random weather in this game, as it lends itself to a "paint-by-numbers" mentality for the players.

aye, I agree. Fixed weather is completely unrealistic and provides too much certainty. Random favours the Soviets in 1941 but the Germans later on. There was an AAR between Oshawatt and Stef78 that showed how easy it is for the Soviets to exploit perfect knowledge of the sequence of mud and clear turns in May and early June.

Changing over to random weather myself.

Great AAR as always.

[morvael]

Who will tell the story of the brave division near Tallin? It took some ground!

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: JAMiAM

Nice to see you and your opponent using random weather. I've always hated non-random weather in this game, as it lends itself to a "paint-by-numbers" mentality for the players.

aye, I agree. Fixed weather is completely unrealistic and provides too much certainty. Random favours the Soviets in 1941 but the Germans later on. There was an AAR between Oshawatt and Stef78 that showed how easy it is for the Soviets to exploit perfect knowledge of the sequence of mud and clear turns in May and early June.

Changing over to random weather myself.

Great AAR as always.

thank you ..

I think the fixed weather is essential for the shorter scenarios but variable weather is so much better for the campaign

ORIGINAL: morvael

Who will tell the story of the brave division near Tallin? It took some ground!

Ah that was a *good* idea that went wrong. I was hoping that Vigabrand would only commit limited forces to Estonia so left a fairly powerful rifle division in Talinin to catch him out. But he has sent a pretty powerful force that way, including at least 1 Pzr Corps

Now, as will be obvious in the August reports, I've pulled the same stunt at Odessa and that seems to have caused him real problems - probably not helped by the relative lack of rail repair capacity in the Ukraine

[loki100]

Turn 7: 31 July – 6 August 1941

Although the ground dried out from the rains of late July, the first week of August saw relative calm across the front. At Leningrad, the Soviet defences on the Luga were strengthened as it was clear the Germans were building up both north of Pskov and on the Narva. Leningrad Front's assessment was that the opening blow would fall on 33 Army.



At Smolensk the front remained static. The Germans forced the Dnepr at Mogilev but made no attempt to breach the outer Soviet defences on the Oster or the upper Dnepr.

Equally, in the Ukraine, the impression was of the Germans building up for their next offensive. They had briefly encircled Kirovgrad but a localised counterattack by 19 Army in turn threatened to encircle the German spearheads.


(Soviet KV-1 in action near Kirovgrad)

Soviet estimates were that 2 Panzer Corps were still in the Kiev sector. Given likely supply problems, the expectation was that the Germans would struggle to capture the industrial centres in the Dnepr bend and to cross the Dnepr near Kiev.

With this rather optimistic interpretation of German capacity, Stavka ordered both South-Western and Southern Fronts to hold the line of the Dnepr while key industrial centres were evacuated.






Stavka authorised a build up of Soviet units in the southern Ukraine, especially in the Dombas. South-Western Front was reduced to two under strength armies but was expected to rely on the Dnepr to provide defensive cover. The other priority sector was Leningrad were it was clear the Germans were building up for a major offensive.

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Yes suddenly the war seemed so very personal. Both my brothers were now serving on the Leningrad Front. Sacha's squadron was pulled out of training and committed to the sector. Vladimir was with the 30 Army at Novgorod. Our home city was shortly to be on the front line.




(Stormoviks deployed near Novgorod)

[loki100]

Turn 8: 7-13 August 1941

The relative lull of the last two weeks was shattered on 7-8 August as the Germans renewed their offensives at Leningrad and the Ukraine as well as exerted some pressure in the Smolensk sector. By the middle of August Stavka was facing crises at Leningrad and in the Ukraine. South Western Front had effectively ceased to exist as a combat formation at the time when all reinforcements and replacements were needed in the brutal defensive battles in the north.

Leningrad

The Soviet line on the Luga was breached in the western sector. As the Germans pushed almost to the Black Sea at Pushkin they encircled the bulk of 33 Army. Soviet combat reports suggested that Leningrad Front was facing 3 full Panzer Corps (41, 56 and 57P) and 4 Infantry Corps (38, 50, 2 and 10) indicating the Germans had committed the equivalent of 3 full armies to the battle.

The result was to bring the Germans to less than 20 miles south of Leningrad. However, 30 Army's positions at Novgorod had not been attacked and Stavka was able to replace the losses in 33 Army allowing a new defensive line to be constructed.



At the same time the Finnish army forced back 7 Army, securing control of the northern end of Lake Ladoga.



Stavka's response was to make the defence of Leningrad the priority. If the Germans had committed so much of their elite forces then as long as they were involved in this campaign they were not available to attack Moscow.


(Soviet reserves moving up from Leningrad)

Smolensk

In the centre the Germans completed the destruction of the small pocket on the Dnepr and pushed over the Pronya. However fierce resistance by 13 Army limited their gains.



The result was to stall the German drive on Moscow and allow Stavka more time to build up the defences on the Rzhev-Vyazma-Tula line. The limited German pressure allowed the Soviets time to pull back out of the threatened encirclement and deploy to new defensive positions along the Desna.



Overall it appeared as if the Germans had weakened their forces in the centre, reducing the pressure on Moscow. The bulk of their armour on this sector was in the Vitebsk sector in preparation for an attack on Smolensk. Their main offensive was being led by 4 infantry corps just north of Gomel.

Ukraine

However, the largest disaster fell on South Western Front. 5 Army was encircled at Kiev as the Germans managed to cross the Dnepr to the south and 12 Army was pocketed along the Dnepr north of Cherkassy.

Further south the Germans were less successful. Southern Front managed to fend off a German offensive in the Dnepr bend. German Panzers and motorised troops reached the outskirts of both Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhe early on 12 August [1]. In response, 9 and 49 Armies counter-attacked at Dnepropetrovsk, routing the LAH SS [2] and relieving German pressure on this major industrial city.



In turn 18 Army attack on the Ingulets river, driving back a Hungarian unit and re-establishing communications with units in the Kirovgrad pocket. The only set back was the failure of 19 Army to over-run the 16 Pzr division trapped on the east bank of the Dnepr.


[3]

This left a confusing situation all along the lower Dnepr. At Kiev and north of Cherkassy, the bulk of SW Front was encircled. To the south, Southern Front had managed a series of bruising counter-attacks that had seriously disrupted the German offensive towards Dnepropetrovsk. Even where these had failed, the German forward units east of Cherkassy were now cut off.



Despite the disaster of SW Front, it was clear that all the German motorised formations in the Ukraine were now fully committed. Across the entire battle front from the Baltic to the Black Sea the only German mobile units not fully engaged were the estimated 4-5 Panzer Corps in the Smolensk sector.

Commentary





This turn I spend some of the admin points from the activation of Reserve Front on removing the worst of the army commanders. This does indicate which armies are weak as a full strength army should have 100-120,000 men. Note that 6 and 26 Armies of SW Front have almost no combat units.


[1] – both still full of industry ..
[2] – even better I managed to rout it twice more as it kept on arriving where I could reach with units in the pockets to the west
[3] – the no +1 rule is really changing my approach. Its clear the Germans can push spearheads into what would have been risky situations (of course this is balanced by their new supply problems).


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Sacha's squadron did their best to support 33 Army. Their first mission on 8 August was swamped by the number of German planes – perhaps fortunately all their fighters were trying to protect their own bombers rather than stop our Sturmoviks



On the 11th it was much worse. This time the Luftwaffe targetted our bombers. Fortunately for Sacha their escorts were using Yak-1s not the I-16s that most of our fighter squadrons relied on.

His plane was badly damaged but he managed to land safely. Whether it was worth the loss of so many new pilots and some of our best planes?




(Sturmoviks in action near Leningrad)

[morvael]

Disaster in the north, disaster in the south, why not launch an offensive? [:)]

In my PBEM game cpt flam also approached Leningrad from the west, and even though the front line was at Pushkin and in the rough terrains south, the defenses held in the end. It's tempting for the Axis to go where terrain is more friendly than the swamps north of Novgorod, but this leads to a front based on urban, rough and swamp terrain. End of panzer use.

How's the "fac evac" progressing?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: morvael

Disaster in the north, disaster in the south, why not launch an offensive? [:)]

In my PBEM game cpt flam also approached Leningrad from the west, and even though the front line was at Pushkin and in the rough terrains south, the defenses held in the end. It's tempting for the Axis to go where terrain is more friendly than the swamps north of Novgorod, but this leads to a front based on urban, rough and swamp terrain. End of panzer use.

How's the "fac evac" progressing?

aye I think the apparent ease of moving through Estonia really doesn't pay off in the end. I was able to place a decent defence on the SE side of Lake Ilmen and then pour units into the Leningrad-Novgorod sector. We are up to T13 and he's isolated Leningrad but his main assault forces are fully engaged with my units along the Volkhov so I'd be surprised if he could manage to attack the city itself at the same time.

I think I've managed a good trade off of losses for factories. I don't think Moscow is at risk this year now so I can move those factories at my leisure over the winter. Add the Moscow factories to what I've moved and I've saved 55 HI (so only need to move 14 more from the eastern Ukraine for the 200 target), 89 arms pts (50 more to meet the minimum target, but yet to even start on Stalino) and have lost no trucks.

The price is in losses (again for end T12): 120,000 dead, 260,000 disabled/not returned and 1.4m million prisoners. I think he'll get another 300,000 or so before the autumn mud so that is relatively high and going to cause me arms pts shortages in early 1942. But I can replace them by the 'reserve army' trick over winter so would reckon on 6.5-7m by summer 1942. If so, the game is pretty well balanced.

But that will mean, esp with mild winter and no +1, a relatively ineffective winter offensive

[loki100]

Turn 9: 14-20 August 1941

By mid-August the focus for both armies was Leningrad. The Germans made limited gains around Smolensk and destroyed the trapped Soviet forces at Kiev. However, they made no attempt to renew their offensive in the Dneipr bend. The Soviet defence at Odessa was adding to their problems in the south with an entire Romanian army pinned down around the city.




(Soviet Marines in action near Odessa)

The fighting in the north was bitter. On the 14th the Finns launched a massive attack at Hanko and overwhelmed the Soviet garrison following a massive air bombardment.

However, the main action was the area south of Leningrad and north of the Luga. The initial German attacks were designed to secure their rear by eliminating the units of 33 Army trapped the previous week. They followed this by breaking through at Stworzy and Pushkin to reach the outskirts of Leningrad. In turn this trapped a small Soviet force at Oranienbaum and the Leningrad command quickly built up this small bridgehead with sailors from the Baltic Fleet.

Despite the significance of their breakthrough at Pushkin the main fighting took place in the 33 Army sector as they tried to reach Novgorod and cut the Moscow-Leningrad rail lines.

The opening attack was led by their 2 Infantry Corps backed by substantial artillery that managed to dislodge 151 Rifle from Divenskaya despite the intervention of the VVS.



Forced out of its entrenchments, 151 Rifle fell back, only to be overwhelmed by 12 Panzer Division backed by 80 Ju-88s and substantial axis fighter cover to prevent any more Soviet air interdiction.

By the 17th the situation was becoming critical as an SS Motorised Division sought to exploit these gains by attacking at Jamtestowa in an attempt to break open 30 Army's positions.

Again, their attack was supported by a massive air attack but they had become over confident and and had to stop the offensive when it was clear that 187 Rifle Division had made the most of the poor terrain to improvise a make-shift defence.



A follow up attack on the 18th was also fended off when Soviet Il-2s evaded the German fighters and struck their command centres.




(Evacuating Soviet wounded at Jamtestowa)

As a result both 30 and 33 Armies were able to slip out of the threatened encirclements and fall back to new defensive lines. 33 Army held the wooded terrain south of Kolpino and 30 Army hastily dug in along the Oredezh.



Recognising the critical nature of these battles, Stavka allocated all possible reserves to Northern Front. Some were used to improve the Soviet front line positions but most were held back in reserve along the Volkhov.

OOB and discussion



Overall, the destruction of SW Front meant the Soviets lost a net 38,000 men, 2,000 guns and 1,000 tanks (but this was partly balanced as the manpower in reserve increased from 333,000 to 342,000). SW Front itself has now shrunk to 260,000 men compared to 434,000 last week.

The combination of the intense battles at Leningrad, the effective destruction of a complete front in the northern Ukraine and the desire to ensure the defences at Moscow were as strong as possible was putting the Red Army under impossible strain. In the Ukraine the only real hope was that the Germans were facing severe supply problems and would be unable to exploit the situation.

In the meantime, Stavka scraped together a small force to defend Kharkov (which was now the priority for industrial evacuation) [1] and steadily built up a reserve in the Donets under the notional control of the North Caucasus Military District. This would be enough to defeat a limited German attack on this vital region and could be released to either Southern or South Western Fronts in case of opportunity. The reality was that from Orel to the Dombas, there was no structured Soviet defence. What was left was a set of isolated defensive positions around key cities or rail junctions.

German losses in the week were 17,000 men, 56 tanks and 52 aircraft. The Soviets lost 190,000 men (165,000 taken prisoner), 353 tanks and 220 aircraft.


[1] – I'll do a detailed report on the industrial situation once we reach the mud turns, think it will make more sense in that context.

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How did that affect you?

How do you think. My mother and sister were still in Leningrad. I heard that my sister was drafted to near the front to dig trenches.


(soviet defensive preparations on the outskirts of Leningrad)

Worse news was that Sacha's plane had been shot down on 18 August. All we knew was it went down behind the German lines but in an area only weakly held by their troops.

Did it affect your work?

How, why? Others were from the Ukraine and the Germans had just captured Kiev. We lost the last small area of eastern Bielorussia as they completed their encirclement at Smolensk. We had no time for such indulgences.

[gingerbread]

What units does the Urals MD control?

You are through the reinforcement doldrums, T7-9, so this does not look too bad.

When you do your industry report, please comment on if you think the No Lvow is too much a give.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

What units does the Urals MD control?

You are through the reinforcement doldrums, T7-9, so this does not look too bad.

When you do your industry report, please comment on if you think the No Lvow is too much a give.

at this stage Urals has the units that I intend to throw straight into the fighting, so they spawn with morale >42 and a decent TOE. South Urals are units I want to hold back, these are either the very weak or the very good, in both cases its a sort of mental reminder not to just link them up to an army and hurl them into the line

I've learnt a lot from my last PBEM and generally got better at managing the arms pts/admin pts/manpower cycle in 1941 so hopefully can get as much into the line for as little investment as possible

re Lvow, more in my favour than I realised when we discussed the game. I hadn't realised the patch removed FBD5 - or more strictly hadn't understood the implication. Lvov is not just a means to cull the SW Front (which Vigabrand now has done) but allows an unrealistic transfer of FBD into Romania. Problem is you sometimes need some unrealism in order to get a good balanced game so I'm really hoping that what I thought was a pretty neutral idea hasn't become a source of long term inbalance.

But we're up to T14 and he's making pretty good progress everywhere apart from the S Ukraine and I don't think that would have been helped, in that instance the loss of FBD5 is fundamental in terms of resupply (but is one reason why I've decided to deny him Odessa as long as possible).