Crowd-sourcing a curriculum: Using BASPM as a teaching tool

[rommel222]

Greetings CV60,
You would be getting an A+ in my lab course for such a superb analysis. The Buzz-opedia already earns you an A+ in the online course. I upgraded to version 1.5 and have been trying out extreme fast track strategies for U.S.S.R. with mixed results (not unlike Marshal Nedelin's pressure for results leading to disaster).

Look forward to you getting back to the regularly scheduled AAR.[&o]

[CV60]

Thanks!

Greetings CV60,
You would be getting an A+ in my lab course for such a superb analysis. The Buzz-opedia already earns you an A+ in the online course. I upgraded to version 1.5 and have been trying out extreme fast track strategies for U.S.S.R. with mixed results (not unlike Marshal Nedelin's pressure for results leading to disaster).

Look forward to you getting back to the regularly scheduled AAR.

[CV60]

Before risking a monkey on a high-risk flight in space, I first test the effects of zero-g on lower forms of Vertebrates.[;)]

[CV60]

Q1 1960

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$20,226.0 $4,154.1 $5,845.9

Actions

-Fly unmanned Mercury suborbital flight

Events/Observations

-The unmanned suborbital Mercury mission is successful, and "Ham," the astrochimp, enjoys his subsequent celebrity. (Image 1)
-One astronaut resigns to go to private industry.

Analysis

The unmanned suborbital flight is successful, increasing the Mercury/Atlas to approximately 87% reliability. Despite this high reliability, I'm still concerned about my controllers, as the Flight Director skill is still only around 75%, althought the rest of the MC staff is in the 85% range. To minimize risk, the next flight will be a unmanned orbital flight, which will hopefully increase the reliability of the Mercury/Atlas system and minimize the risk for the subsequent manned flights.

The resignation of the astronaut is unfortunate. Fortunately, NASA had seven astronauts in the training pipeline, so there will be a sufficient number available for Mercury and Gemini.

Image 1

[CV60]

2Q 1960

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$14,905.9 $4,172.1 $5,827.9

Actions

-The unmanned suborbital Mercury flight is launched

-Mariner 6 is opened

-The Level 2 VAB and SET facilities are started in preparation for Project GEMINI. A astronaut is hired to replace the one that resigned.

Events/Observations

The unmanned suborbital Mercury flight is successfull, increasing the Mercury/Atlas to approximately 89% reliability.

Analysis

I’m still concerned about the relatively low (76%) capability of the Flight Director and CAPCOM. However, the remainder of the mission control personnel are at an acceptable levels of skill. (Image 1). Additionally, the Mercury/Atlas system will be at over 90% reliability next quarter. In the 3 quarters necessary to train the Flight Director to over 80%, the USSR could orbit a manned spacecraft. Because of these factors, I evaluate the risks as acceptable, and schedule a manned suborbital flight for 3Q 1960.

Image 1

[CV60]

Q3 1960

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$13,361.8 $4,393.6 $5,606.4

Actions

-Launch manned suborbital Mercury flight


Events/Observations

The sub-orbital Mercury mission is successful. However, on two separate occasions, there were glitches that risked the crew, despite the booster and capsule being at over 90% reliability.

Analysis

The series of glitches on this flight despite the high reliability of the systems are a warning of the importance of having both astronaut and mission control personnel as possible, at least on manned missions.
Aside from the successful manned Mercury flight, the next most important event is the significant depletion in my resources. Two quarters ago, NASA had a balance of $20,000. It is not $13,000. While not yet unduly alarming, this rate of burn is unsustainable, and risks the ability to open the Gemini/Titan program. Fortunately, the reason for part of this expenditure is the upgraded VAB/SET infrastructure, which is now paid for, so the dollar burn rate should decrease.

Image

[CV60]

Q4 1960

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$14,721.2 $4,846.6 $5,153.4

Actions

-Launch the Manned Mercury Obital mission. The average reliability of the Atlas-Mercury system is now at 97.7%, so it should be relatively safe.


Events/Observations

Successful manned orbital flight

Analysis

The successful orbital flight gives me a lead over the USSR both in achieving a man in space and a man in orbit. Although I could fly an extended level Mercury mission and accomplish one of the pre-requisites for a lunar landing, I instead decide to close down the Mercury program. Primarily, this is to allow time to train the controllers before beginning to fly the Gemini missions. Additionally, it will save a small amount of money in the near term, which I will use to open the Gemini program.

[CV60]

Idea for a Student Paper/Essay

In my Mercury flights, I balanced need to beat the USSR into space with the requirement for crew safety. While I minimized the risk to the extent possible, I acknowledge that there were safety gaps in my operations scheme, primarily with my level of controller training. If a student in BASPM has a fatality in their program, ask them to review the following speech (available here: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=10176 ) by Gene Kranz and compare his philosophy with their decisions that led to their (virtual) fatality:

"Space flight will never tolerate carelessness, incapacity and neglect. Somewhere, somehow we screwed up. It could have been a design in build or in test, but whatever it was, we should have caught it. We were too gung-ho about the schedule, and we locked out all of the problems we saw each day in our work."
"Every element of the program was in trouble and so were we. The simulators were not working, Mission Control was behind in virtually every area, and the flight and test procedures changed daily. Nothing we did had any shelf life. Not one of us stood up and said, `Damnit. Stop.'"
"I don't know what the Thompson Committee will find as the cause, but I know what I find. We are the cause. We were not ready. We did not do our job. We were rolling the dice, hoping that things would come together by launch day when, in our hearts, we knew it would take a miracle. We were pushing the schedule and betting that the Cape would slip before we did."
"From this day forward, Flight Control will be known by two words, `tough' and `competent.' Tough means we will forever be accountable for what we do or what we fail to do. We will never again compromise our responsibilities. Every time we walk into Mission Control, we will know what we stand for."

[CV60]

1-4Q 1961

Expenditures/Budget (Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$6,787.1 $5,933.6 $4,066.8 1Q
$10,853.5 $5,508.6 $4,491.5 2Q
$2,359.6 $6,959.4 $3,040.6 3Q
$2,359.6 $6,959.4 $3,040.6 4Q

Actions

1Q Close Project Mercury
1Q Open Titan II GLV (manned) and Atlas-Centaur (unmanned) rocket programs
1Q I send all astronaunts and MC personnel to training
3Q Open Project Gemini

Events/Observations

1Q USSR Opens Luna 2 Lunar Impactor
4Q USSR-The USSR successfully launches the Soyuz 7K-L1 on an uncrewed orbital flight test.

Analysis

In the first quarter, I close project Mercury. My budget is rapidly being drained, so I will be unable to start Project Gemini right away. Instead, I open up the manned Titan II Gemini Launch Vehicle (GLV) booster in preparation for the Gemini program. I also open up the Atlas-Centaur to both give NASA a booster for heavier scientific probes, such as Surveyor. An equally important reason to open this particular booster is that development of the by liquid hydrogen /oxygen fueled Centaur will help speed the development of the Saturn V, which I need for the Apollo program. While these systems are in development, all controllers and astronauts begin an intensive training program.

I will leave unchallenged the USSR’s opening of the Luna 2 impactor. Although I could probably get the Ranger probe to the moon first, my budget situation is such that I do not want to spend either the money or the time that could be used to train my controllers.

In the 3rd quarter, I have enough funds to open Project Gemini, and initially put all available SET personnel on capsule development. However, I will shortly have to begin development of both the Agena and an EVA suit to accomplish the rendezvous and spacewalk missions that are an important prerequisite for the Apollo lunar landing mission.

The launch of the Soyuz in the 4th quarter is a bit of a shock. I was confident that NASA was significantly ahead of the USSR. The successful launch of a Soyuz 7K-L1 on an unmanned orbital mission challenges that assumption. While the Soyuz is inferior to Gemini, is still sufficient to perform a manned circumlunar voyage, if the USSR has a sufficiently capable booster. I will continue to monitor Soviet developments. If necessary, I can shorten the NASA timeline to a lunar landing by either scrapping some missions, or by scrapping the Apollo program and developing Gemini EOR or Direct Gemini.

[CV60]

1-4Q 1962

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$846.1 $6,959.4 $3,040.6 1Q
$3,824.8 $7,027.4 $2,972.6 2Q
$4,697.3 $7,027.4 $2,972.6 3Q
$3,069.9 $7,027.4 $2,972.6 4Q

Actions

1Q Launched Pioneer Solar mission
1Q Gemini EVA spacesuit sub-program opened
2Q Gemini Agena Target Vehicle sub-program opened
3Q Begin Construction on Astronaut Level 2 Complex

Events/Observations

1Q US loses an astronaut in a training accident (Random Event)
1Q USSR successfully drop tests the PKA space plane
2Q USSR finally has a man in space-They successfully launch a crewed suborbital flight on the Soyuz 7K-L1
3Q USSR conducts an uncrewed orbital flight test using the Soyuz 7K-L1


Analysis

In the first quarter, NASA launches the Pioneer solar mission (Image 1). This mission takes six quarters to complete, so it is a good “gap filler” to fly between major manned programs. It also allows NASA to use the Atlas-Agena booster and increase its reliability prior to using it on an expensive and time-critical Gemini rendezvous mission. NASA also suffers its first astronaut loss in a training accident. Of the original seven astronauts, only five remain. A Gemini flight takes a minimum of three astronauts, two to fly the capsule, and one as CAPCOM. Because of crew rest requirements, this means that a minimum of five astronauts are necessary to fly a constant one mission/quarter flight schedule. NASA now has only the minimum number of trained astronauts to fly the aggressive Gemini flight schedule, and an insufficient number to fly Apollo. Given the length of time it takes to train an astronaut, this shortage will require expanding the astronaut corps to approximately 10-12 astronauts soon to avoid an astronaut shortage affecting the flight schedule.

I am constantly surprised by the USSR. I had assumed the PKA space plane project was dropped, as the program was opened in 1Q 1955. The USSR is apparently having difficulty in developing spaceplane technology. The successful drop test indicates that they are near a manned orbital mission. This opinion is confirmed in the second quarter, when the USSR puts its first man in space, onboard a sub-orbital Soyuz 7K-L1 flight.

In the 2nd and 3rd quarters, NASA begins to develop both the Gemini EVA spacesuit and the Agena GATV. These will be used in the Gemini spacewalk and rendezvous missions, which are crucial steps towards a lunar landing.

Image 1

[CV60]

1-4Q 1963

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$21,742.6 $26,250.0 $18,736.6 1Q
$39,179.2 $26,250.0 $18,736.0 2Q
$55,098.0 $26,250.0 $18,663.9 3Q
$45,781.2 $26,250.0 $17,216.6 4Q

Actions

1Q Hire 3 astronauts for Apollo program
3Q Open Pioneer 2 Lunar Orbiter
3Q Gemini Uncrewed Suborbital Test
4Q Mariner 6 Mars Flyby Launch
4Q Gemini Uncrewed orbital Test
4Q Open Saturn 1B Program

Events/Observations

1Q USSR conducts a lunar impactor (Luna 2) mission
2 Q The USSR conducts two crewed flights: an orbital flight of Duration Level 1 using the Soyuz, and a suborbital PKA flight.
2Q Pioneer Solar mission Completed
3Q USSR opens the Zond 5 circumlunar flight program
4Q The USSR successfully orbits the PKA space plane


Analysis

NASA successfully meets its prestige goals, giving it the maximum possible budget for the 1963-67 cycle. This will allow the aggressive Gemini and Apollo flight program be flown during this cycle. To prepare for Apollo, I hire three new astronauts, bringing the corps up to a total of ten, which will be the minimum number for the current schedule. The current year group of astronauts will not be sufficiently trained for the Gemini flights, but should be marginally capable for either later Apollo flights or duty as CAPCOM.

In the second quarter, the Soviets again surprise me by flying two crewed flights: a suborbital PKA flight and a duration Soyuz orbital mission. This aggressive flight schedule indicates they have a trained mission control staff sufficient for lunar flights. The orbital Soyuz flight also indicates they can launch a circumlunar flight if they have a sufficiently powerful booster. The opening of the Zond 5 circumlunar program in the 3rd quarter indicates that the USSR is close to achieving a manned circumlunar flight. The Zond is simply an unmanned version of the Soyuz 7K-L1, so it will probably become operational quickly. The opening of this program further indicates that the USSR has almost finished development of a lunar-capable booster. The subsequent successful orbiting of the PKA spaceplane in the 4th quarter confirms the USSR has both a capable mission control staff and cosmonaut corps, and appears only lack the lift capability to get to the moon. Fortunately, there is no indication that the USSR has opened a lunar landing program yet, so even if they beat NASA to a circumlunar flight, the US may still beat them to the lunar surface.

The pause in flying manned missions becomes a heyday for the NASA unmanned probe missions. The Pioneer solar program successfully completes its 18-month flight in the second quarter. The two-season duration Mariner 6 Mars mission launches in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the Pioneer 2 lunar orbiter program is opened, to gain experience for the subsequent experience for the Lunar Orbiter program, which is important for site selection for the manned Apollo landings.

Because the Soviet successes, NASA accelerates the Gemini flight schedule. The Gemini/Titan system achieves 80% reliability in the second quarter. While not sufficiently safe for astronauts, an unmanned suborbital and orbital missions are flown in the last two quarters of the year to increase system reliability and to prepare for manned flights in 1964 (Image).

The Saturn 1B program is opened to both shorten the development time of the Saturn V, and to provide an inexpensive booster for Apollo testing.

Image

[CV60]

Interregnum-Learning Objectives Addressed in BASPM from Mercury to start of Gemini

At the beginning of this AAR, I set out the following teaching objectives for using BASPM:

• Learn about the history of space exploration in the context of the "space race."
• Learn about basic principles of program management
o Setting an Objective/Goal
o Setting Strategy (Project Plan) to reach the objective
o Resource Allocation
o Risk Management and Mitigation Strategy

At this point in the game, a student has been partially exposed to each of these objectives. The student's strategy is now being tested, and they should have an idea of whether it will lead to them successfully accomplishing their goals, or whether alteration in their strategy is needed. Resource allocation, in particular, the impact of budgeting on their goals, and their success or failure on their budgets should also be evident. Finally, the student should begin to understand how the various manned programs complemented and built on its predecessor.

[CV60]

1Q 1964

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)


$54,962.1 $26,250.0 $17,216.6 1Q

Actions

Launch manned Gemini Orbital mission
Successful Mariner 6 Mars flyby (Image 1)

Events/Observations
NSTR


Analysis

The hiatus in manned flights allowed NASA to accumulate sufficient funds for the Gemini flight program. Although having $54,000 on hand sounds like a lot, I believe that opening the Apollo program and flying the Gemini missions will significantly cut into that pot of money.

The successful launch of the manned orbital Gemini mission brings the Gemini/Titan reliability to 88%. This is sufficiently high to actively begin flying the Gemini R&D missions (Duration, Spacewalk, and Rendezvous).

Image 1 (source:http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/history/hires/1 ... ollage.jpg)

[CV60]

2Q 1964

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$44,401.7 $26,250.0 $16,052.3


Actions

Launch Gemini Spacewalk mission
Launch Pioneer 2 lunar orbital flight
Open Lunar Orbiter Program
Open Saturn V Booster

Events/Observations

Pioneer 2’s retrorocket failed, resulting in the probe not entering lunar orbit.
The Gemini spacewalk is successful

Analysis

The Gemini spacewalk mission is successful (Image 1). Although all components were at +85%, this is still a high-risk mission, so its success is a relief.
Although Pioneer was at 85% reliability, it still failed. Its failure reinforces the importance of having qualified mission controllers on manned flights. While the controllers on Pioneer 2 were qualified, they weren't as qualified as those assigned to the Gemini spacewalk. They will receive additional training prior to being assigned to the Apollo flights.

Image 1

[CV60]

3Q 1964

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$47,962.0 $28,664.8 $18,467.1

Actions

Launch Gemini Agena Rendezvous and Docking


Events/Observations

The Gemini Agena Rendezvous and Docking mission is successful

Analysis
NSTR


Image

[CV60]

Q4 1964

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$58,293.4 $28,664.8 $18,467.1

Actions

Launch the Gemini Level III long duration flight.

Events/Observations

The USSR successfully flies a joint manned flight
The Gemini Level III long duration flight is successful


Analysis

I fly the long duration flight last. In retrospect, this mission should have been flown earlier, before the spacewalk and rendezvous, as it is a safer mission, and would provide system reliability increases before engaging in the higher-risk rendezvous and spacewalk. In a departure from my usual practice of accomplishing all prerequisite flights to avoid the reliability penalties, in this case the mission in flown despite not having accomplished a duration II level flight. The penalty is only a -5% reliability hit. However, Gemini/Titan has an average reliability is 96%, so the flight should be safe. I take the risk simply to achieve a duration record ahead of the USSR. Accomplishing this duration flight is also the last mission profile needed before flying the Apollo missions without reliability penalties.

The USSR's successful joint manned flight is not unduly concerning. The USSR space program appears to have stalled. The launch rate is significantly slower than the NASA's, and there is no indication that they have begun to fly a lunar capable booster.

[CV60]

1-4Q 1965

Expenditures/Budget (Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$23,596.1 $28,664.8 $15,753.1 1Q
$29,494.7 $28,664.8 $15,650.9 2Q
$43,545.5 $28,664.8 $15,974.2 3Q
$56,228.2 $28,664.8 $16,278.2 4Q

Actions

1Q End Project Gemini
1Q Start Project Apollo
1Q Fly Pioneer 2
2Q End Pioneer 2
2Q Begin Surveyor
2Q Fly Lunar Orbiter
3Q End Lunar Orbiter
3Q Begin LEM sub-program
4Q Opened up Pegasus Satellite program

Events/Observations

1Q Pioneer 2 successfully enters lunar orbit
2Q USSR Opens the Luna 15 soil sample return program



Analysis

In 1965, the US program hits its stride. Although no manned flights occur this year, two important lunar missions, Pioneer 2 and the Lunar Orbiter successfully orbit the moon, providing important photo reconnaissance of potential landing sites (Image 1). Project Gemini, having achieved all of its goals is closed and Project Apollo begun. In the third quarter, the Apollo LEM sub-program is opened to prepare for the lunar landing. Additionally, the Pegasus satellite program is opened as a means of testing the Saturn IB before beginning Apollo flights.

The USSR program has been strangely quiet. There is no indication that it has developed a booster capable of reaching the moon, nor is there any indication it has opened a lunar landing program. It does open the Luna 15 program, but even if it is successful, it will not endanger NASA’s lead.

Image 1

[CV60]

1-4Q 1966

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$65,404.8 $28,664.8 $16,278.2 1Q
$66,759.7 $28,664.8 $16,249.9 2Q
$62,884.0 $28,664.8 $16,249.9 3Q
$63,137.2 $28,664.8 $16,437.2 4Q

Actions

1Q Fly Pegasus Satellite
1Q Open Apollo Lunar Spacesuit sub-program
2Q Close Pegasus
2Q Open Biosatellite
2Q Fly Apollo unmanned suborbital
3Q Launch Surveyor
3Q Launch Biosatellite
4Q Open Mariner 5
4Q Open Frog Oalith satellite
4Q Close Surveyor
4Q Close Biosatellite
4Q Fly uncrewed Apollo Orbital flight

Events/Observations
2Q Apollo unmanned suborbital successful
3Q Surveyor lunar lander is successful
3Q Biosatellite is successful
4Q Uncrewed Apollo Orbital flight is successful


Analysis

Although flying no manned missions in 1966, the NASA program continues to speed towards the goal of landing on the moon The Pegasus satellite is flown early to both free up controllers for an unmanned Apollo test in 2Q, as well as test the Saturn 1B booster prior to use in the Apollo program. A 2Q unmanned test flight of the Apollo capsule is successful, In 3Q both the Biosatellite and Surveyor are successfully launched. Historically, the Surveyor mission was important, as it tested engineering concepts used in the manned LEM. Finally, an uncrewed Apollo orbital flight is successfully launched in 4Q. The Apollo capsule is now ready for crewed missions. However, the development of the LEM is lagging potentially delaying the Apollo landing. It is rated at only 60% reliability at the end of the year. Additional SET personnel are assigned to speed its development.

[CV60]

1-2Q 1967

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$83,146.0 $43,750.0 $31,522.4 1Q
$105,930.3 $43,750.0 $31,522.4 2Q

Actions

1Q Launch manned Apollo Orbital flight
2Q Launch Mariner 5 (Venus Probe)
2Q Launch Frog Otolith satellite


Events/Observations

2Q Launch manned Apollo Orbital flight is successful
2Q Frog Otolith satellite and Mariner 5 (Venus Probe) are successful
2Q USSR opens the 7K-OK (Earth Orbit) and 7K-L3 LOK Earth Orbit

Analysis

After two successful unmanned tests of the Apollo/Saturn system, NASA flies the first manned Apollo orbital test flight, which is successful. However, because of delays in LEM development (79% reliability) and the Apollo spacesuit (75% reliability), a pause in flying Apollo flights is ordered for 2Q. This pause should give these critical subprograms a chance to develop.

Instead of flying Apollo missions, NASA launches a NEO “Orbiting Frog Otolith” satellite mission (image), and the Mariner 5 Venus probe in 2Q. The Frog Otolith mission is not necessary for the Apollo program. However, it is a low-risk mission, providing a minor level of prestige at little cost. More importantly, it will help train some controllers prior to the Apollo launch. The Mariner 5 Venus probe is likewise not a critical part of the Apollo program. Like the Frog Otolith mission, it is also low risk, and provides some training to controllers. If it is successful, NASA will have achieved visits to Venus, Mars and the Moon ahead of the USSR.

The USSR’s opening of the 7K-OK and 7K-L3 LOK Earth Orbit programs provide a bit of relief. News that the USSR is only now opening the 7K-L3 shows that they are at least two years, and more likely three or four years behind NASA in landing a man on the moon. This takes a considerable amount of pressure off the Apollo flight schedule, allowing me to concentrate on safely getting to the moon, rather than making decisions based in part on keeping the US ahead of the USSR.

Image

[CV60]

3Q 1967

Expenditures/Budget( Available/Expenditure/Balance)

$118,979.0 $43,750.0 $30,094.9 3Q

Actions

3Q Open Apollo Lunar program
3Q Close Mariner 5-Venus
3Q Close Frog Otolith
3Q Close Atlas-Agena Rocket program
3Q Close Saturn IB program
3Q Open Mariner 10 Mercury
3Q Fly uncrewed Apollo Lunar Flyby test

Events/Observations

3Q Mariner 5 (Venus Probe) successfully encounters Venus
3Q Successful uncrewed Apollo lunar flyby

Analysis

The LEM and Apollo spacesuit development subprograms still lag. However, it is possible to fly some useful circumlunar Apollo missions while waiting for these subprograms to catch up. In addition to increasing the capabilities of the mission controllers, these flights will also provide additional experience with the Apollo CSM and the untested Saturn V booster. Because the USSR’s program is far behind, and NASA’s budget is solidly in the black, I opt to adopt von Braun’s careful, systematic approach to the lunar missions, with the first circumlunar flight being an unmanned test. It is successfully flown in the 3rd quarter.

The Mariner 5 probe has a successful encounter with Venus, and the program will be closed (Image). The Mariner 10 (Mercury probe) program is opened to replace it. The reliable Atlas-Agena and Saturn 1B booster programs are closed, as neither is needed at this stage of the space program.

Image