Kursk WW2: Why Russia is still fighting world's biggest tank battle

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: ncc1701e

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

Lucky for us the Germans never took North Africa seriously.

warspite1

Maybe, maybe not. Had Hitler turned south instead of East in 1941 everything changes. Such a move may have worked in their favour - but there was plenty that could have gone wrong too.

Off topic but interesting anyway. If Germany had been able to close the Mediterranean Sea in 1940 or 1941, what would have happened? England would have always been there for sure...

warspite1

It depends. There are soooo many variables depending upon what course of action was taken to 'close' the Mediterranean. To explore its probably best to work through specific what-ifs e.g. Spain joins the Axis (if Spain joins the Axis how badly do Vichy and Italy react), Spain doesn't join the Axis but Germany heads south anyway. In that scenario is it a 100% commitment to the Med or does Hitler try and deal with North Africa and Sea Lion simultaneously? What are Hitler's goals and how much time will he give to the operation before heading east? To the autumn of 1940 a la Battle of Britain or does he decide the east can wait? whether Gibraltar is taken out (or not) then affects how the British now deal with the threat to the Atlantic never mind Egypt. Etc. etc.

So many possibilities.

[RangerJoe]

Paratroopers on Gibraltar? Could it have been taken that way if the majority of the Royal Navy ships stationed there were gone or otherwise neutralized during such an attack?

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: ncc1701e

ORIGINAL: warspite1


warspite1

Maybe, maybe not. Had Hitler turned south instead of East in 1941 everything changes. Such a move may have worked in their favour - but there was plenty that could have gone wrong too.

Off topic but interesting anyway. If Germany had been able to close the Mediterranean Sea in 1940 or 1941, what would have happened? England would have always been there for sure...

warspite1

It depends. There are soooo many variables depending upon what course of action was taken to 'close' the Mediterranean. To explore its probably best to work through specific what-ifs e.g. Spain joins the Axis (if Spain joins the Axis how badly do Vichy and Italy react), Spain doesn't join the Axis but Germany heads south anyway. In that scenario is it a 100% commitment to the Med or does Hitler try and deal with North Africa and Sea Lion simultaneously? What are Hitler's goals and how much time will he give to the operation before heading east? To the autumn of 1940 a la Battle of Britain or does he decide the east can wait? whether Gibraltar is taken out (or not) then affects how the British now deal with the threat to the Atlantic never mind Egypt. Etc. etc.

So many possibilities.

And perhaps the biggest possibility of all: what if Turkey had been persuaded to join the Axis, and get revenge for their loss in WWI? If the Middle East oil fields had been seized, and the Axis were no longer starved for fuel -- a lot of things could have changed.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Paratroopers on Gibraltar? Could it have been taken that way if the majority of the Royal Navy ships stationed there were gone or otherwise neutralized during such an attack?

warspite1

Again it depends. Firstly where are you envisaging the paratroopers come from? Spain? (which presents a whole host of problems) Vichy North Africa? (which presents a whole host of new problems).

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: ncc1701e




Off topic but interesting anyway. If Germany had been able to close the Mediterranean Sea in 1940 or 1941, what would have happened? England would have always been there for sure...

warspite1

It depends. There are soooo many variables depending upon what course of action was taken to 'close' the Mediterranean. To explore its probably best to work through specific what-ifs e.g. Spain joins the Axis (if Spain joins the Axis how badly do Vichy and Italy react), Spain doesn't join the Axis but Germany heads south anyway. In that scenario is it a 100% commitment to the Med or does Hitler try and deal with North Africa and Sea Lion simultaneously? What are Hitler's goals and how much time will he give to the operation before heading east? To the autumn of 1940 a la Battle of Britain or does he decide the east can wait? whether Gibraltar is taken out (or not) then affects how the British now deal with the threat to the Atlantic never mind Egypt. Etc. etc.

So many possibilities.

And perhaps the biggest possibility of all: what if Turkey had been persuaded to join the Axis, and get revenge for their loss in WWI? If the Middle East oil fields had been seized, and the Axis were no longer starved for fuel -- a lot of things could have changed.

warspite1

Yes, but what is the catalyst for Turkish involvement?

[RangerJoe]

Paratroopers could have flown from Sardinia. Aircraft could also have towed gliders.

Turkey could have been promised the return of the Crimea as well as control over more territories in Caucasia. It could also have been promised control over areas in the Middle East especially where Turkomen peoples were located.

[panzerwilly2]

A discussion of what would happen if Hitler turned south instead of contemplating Sealion in 1940:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnKDgC9aNu0

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Paratroopers could have flown from Sardinia. Aircraft could also have towed gliders.

Turkey could have been promised the return of the Crimea as well as control over more territories in Caucasia. It could also have been promised control over areas in the Middle East especially where Turkomen peoples were located.

warspite1

Surely that is well outside the range of a Ju-52? - but even if not there would be no fighter cover at all.

As for Turkey, she didn't join the Axis, so in suggesting she would have made a different decision, there needs to be a reason(s) for this. Turkey was concerned about the Soviet Union, she wasn't entering WWII (if at all) without some solid evidence she is going to be on the winning side.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: panzerwilly2

A discussion of what would happen if Hitler turned south instead of contemplating Sealion in 1940:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnKDgC9aNu0

warspite1

Thanks for sharing.

[RangerJoe]

I am sure that the Focke Wolf Condor had the range as well as flying boats, not to mention Italian aircraft.

[Zorch]

I think the Germans shuttled planes to Iraq, via Syria, in 1941. Which may have prompted the British/Free French invasion of Syria.

[Gilmer]

Which proves my point - Germans love David Hasselhoff.

[RangerJoe]

The Ju-52s could also have landed at any airfield there much like the Japanese did with troops. The Ju-52s could have landed in Spain and been interred. Not to mention the possibility of refueling stops in North Afrika. But paradrop at night when enemy day fighters are sleeping. There weren't many British night fighters at the time, if any.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I am sure that the Focke Wolf Condor had the range as well as flying boats, not to mention Italian aircraft.

warspite1

How many of those aircraft did they have and how many paratroops could they hold. Not nearly enough is the answer to the first question and that makes the second question moot.

ORIGINAL: Zorch
I think the Germans shuttled planes to Iraq, via Syria, in 1941. Which may have prompted the British/Free French invasion of Syria.

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
The Ju-52s could also have landed at any airfield there much like the Japanese did with troops. The Ju-52s could have landed in Spain and been interred.

Not to mention the possibility of refueling stops in North Afrika. But paradrop at night when enemy day fighters are sleeping. There weren't many British night fighters at the time, if any.

warspite1
Are you suggesting they use Algeria to attack Gibraltar? If so then how does that work? Are Vichy really going to allow this? I wonder what the US will say.... If the Vichy Government do take this dangerous step, what will they seek to extract from Germany in return?

But forget the political picture, what about the operational plan? Does Algeria have big enough airfields close enough with adequate supplies of oil? Think of the number of aircraft that are needed for the initial wave and then follow-up troops and supplies. How long is the round trip Sardinia-Algeria (I suspect this would need two stops in Algeria)-Gibraltar-Algeria-(possibly Algeria for a second time)-Sardinia? The Germans lost a ton of Ju-52 over Holland and Belgium - how many do they have for this operation? Forget losses from AA for the moment, the losses from wear and tear alone will be high and where and how are all the spares to be transported to Sardinia in the first place? The Algerian airfields are likely to be on the coast - because of the length of time this unwieldy, complex (and to my mind impossible) operation takes place over, they would make a great target for Force H's 15-inch gunned battleships too. With no Littorios (depending on the timescale for this operation) the Italian fleet aren't going to come out and play.

I'd love to see some detail on this, but intuitively I think this is an absolute non-starter right from the outset.

The aircraft can't be simply landed in Spain. They will be needed for follow-up up drops. Even if this was a possibility are you suggesting the Germans are simply prepared to lose their entire precious and very limited Ju-52 fleet?

A long distance, night paradrop over an area as small as the Rock having flown over the sea on the way? Think how scattered airborne forces were on D-Day, if paras get scattered over Gib then many will land in the drink... There wouldn't need to be many British fighters - with what you are proposing the Luftwaffe have enough problems from weather, night flying, time, distance.....

[warspite1]

Ju-52 in summer of 1940

250 of these aircraft were lost fighting in the Low Countries. In August 1940 there were just 313 left of which 193 were operational. There were only a few dozen gliders too (but I don't know if gliders would have been practicable on The Rock (probably not).

Production priority was low and about 30 replacements were being received per month. With the wear and tear such an operation would induce, I'd be surprised if that rate of replacement were possible as spares would be needed to be built up.

So assuming all aircraft could fly at once (doubtful) they all get to the destination reasonably together (doubtful - particularly if they are coming from different airstrips) and they all drop their load on target (doubtful and even more so in a night drop) then perhaps 4 battalions would be dropped. Less if aircraft are held back for dropping supplies. The round trip - I've no idea how long that would take but these troops aren't being supplied anytime soon and heavy weapons are likely out of the question.

And the chances of the Allies not getting wind of such a massive operation?

[Lobster]

Hitler had plans for Gibraltar, Turkey, Middle East, possibly a move through Afghanistan and India for a link up with the Japanese. I'm sure he also had plans for Leprechauns, Unicorns and a Nazi Fairy invasion of New York City. [:D]

I forgot. Somewhere in all of his delusions he planned on invading England. But all of this was after he conquered European Russia.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

Hitler had plans for Gibraltar, Turkey, Middle East, possibly a move through Afghanistan and India for a link up with the Japanese. I'm sure he also had plans for Leprechauns, Unicorns and a Nazi Fairy invasion of New York City. [:D]

I forgot. Somewhere in all of his delusions he planned on invading England. But all of this was after he conquered European Russia.

What he didn't have plans for was using the one truly devastating secret weapon he possessed: Sarin - presumably because he hated gas, due to being gassed in WWI. Had he done so, God only knows how WWII would have tumbled out.

[RangerJoe]

After Operation Catapult, the Vichy French bombed Gibraltar. If they could do so, then there were French airfields in range with aviation fuel. Don't you think that the Germans might have put pressure on the Vichy French? The aircraft could have loaded up in Italy, flown to French North Africa, refueled, then headed to Gibraltar. Some reinforcements and supplies could have been flown in on other aircraft. Italian subs could have been used, even fast Italian DDs much like how the Japanese used them.

Without getting into much detailed research, from wikipedia:

The British garrison: Spring 1941

2nd Battalion, The King's Regiment
2nd Battalion, Somerset Light Infantry
4th Battalion, The Black Watch (from July 1940)
4th Battalion, Devonshire Regiment (from July 1940)
3rd Heavy Regiment, Royal Artillery, with 8 x 9.2 inch, 7 x 6 inch and 6 x twin 6 pounder coast artillery guns
10th Anti Aircraft Regiment, Royal Artillery, with 4 x 3 inch, 4 x 3.7 inch, and 2 x 2 pounder anti-aircraft guns
82nd Heavy AA Regiment, Royal Artillery, (from July 1940), with 16 x 3.7 inch guns, 8 x 40mm 40mm Bofors AA guns and radar
3rd Searchlight Battery, Royal Artillery.[11]
"Special Detachment" of No. 1 Tunnelling Company, Royal Canadian Engineers (from November 1940)
No. 2 Tunnelling Company, Royal Canadian Engineers (from March 1941)[12]
Royal Engineers, Royal Signals and supporting arms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Felix

Until the reinforcements arrived in July 1940, there was not much anti-aircraft artillery available. Those could have suppressed along with the coastal artillery by the Luftwaffe. I do not know exactly when those reinforcements arrived in July of 1940 but after the debacle in France, how well were they equipped?

[Zorch]

Assuming Hitler could get his minions on board, Gibraltar would still have taken a long siege before it surrendered. The British would have been denied use of its port before that, which would force the Sierra Leone convoys to go direct to Britain. Unless the British occupied the Azores, which they might well have done regardless of Portugal's attitude.

Spain, I think, would have been forced to enter the war eventually.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

After Operation Catapult, the Vichy French bombed Gibraltar. If they could do so, then there were French airfields in range with aviation fuel. Don't you think that the Germans might have put pressure on the Vichy French? The aircraft could have loaded up in Italy, flown to French North Africa, refueled, then headed to Gibraltar. Some reinforcements and supplies could have been flown in on other aircraft. Italian subs could have been used, even fast Italian DDs much like how the Japanese used them.

warspite1

I think you are making light of the logistics involved in the air, at sea and on land.

And the relationship between Vichy/Germany/CW and the US was complex.