OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[Canoerebel]

The UK number continues to decline and is also markedly lower than previous weeks (lowest total since March 24). I don't know what if any easing has been done there.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The UK number continues to decline and is also markedly lower than previous weeks (lowest total since March 24). I don't know what if any easing has been done there.

It's fairly messy. The UK as a whole announced a easing of restrictions a fortnight ago, along with a new public health message "Stay Alert".

Problem was that apparently the devolved administrations (Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) weren't in the loop, leading to divergent messages between England and the rest of the UK.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The UK number continues to decline and is also markedly lower than previous weeks (lowest total since March 24). I don't know what if any easing has been done there.

It's fairly messy. The UK as a whole announced a easing of restrictions a fortnight ago, along with a new public health message "Stay Alert".

Problem was that apparently the devolved administrations (Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) weren't in the loop, leading to divergent messages between England and the rest of the UK.

Failure to communicate is a common issue. One of my stepbrothers and his wife both spent the same money. That lead to problems, with the bank as well. But he just had to get a new CB radio . . .

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A week or two back, Montana schools were given the option of re-opening (per a radio news item). I know that some did but the news blurb didn't make it clear if all did. How is that going?

Willow Creek school opened the 7th of May. 46 students and 18 staff and no known infections.
The state of Montana did a phase 1 opening starting the 26th of April and there have been no
flood of new cases, we are still showing mostly 0-2 new cases per day. There were 4 new
cases reported in Big Horn county last Friday. Big Horn county is where most of the Crow Reservation
is and I suspect that is a family cluster, there is no real information except that it was 2 teenage
girls, a teenage boy and a man in his 30's. There have been no deaths in the state of Montana
during the month of May.

[PaxMondo]

Guys, I just want to caution this group against reading too much into any published data on COVID-19. The issue centers around the testing. When some of the testing in use has 40% false positives and some approaching 20% false negatives, you just have to treat all of the data as suspect.

I can tell you that we don't use any of it. All of our outlooks are based upon inferential data that is far more solid. Example: # and % of ICU beds occupied by state and city.

Death Certificates (DC's) are a similar issue. Every state, and then county/city/hospital/doctor has their own form and guidelines for completing a DC. So, unless you understand the jurisdiction that the DC was issued in, you cannot judge how to use it. Example: some jurisdictions only allow for ultimate diagnosis, which for most COVID-19 patients will be pneumonia. There is no space for anything else. Others allow for additional complications. It depends. Now factor in the high rate of deaths, lack of storage AND poor testing quality ….

Just saying, don't put too much time and/or energy into any data yet. It will be August before we have reliable data and the Jan->Jun data will all get restated.

PS: I'm not suggesting that this is a hoax or anything like that. Quite the contrary, we've got 1800 Nurses/Medics on the front lines. I know what this beast is. I read charts half of my day. Trust me, HIPAA prohibits me from sharing any specifics, but this is a nasty bugger.

[CaptBeefheart]

PaxMondo: Great information. Percent of ICU beds being used seems like the key metric to pay attention to in this whole thing. Apologies, but the other thread was so long that I don't recall what it is you do (or I missed it).

The numbers are still looking good here in Korea but I just got a call from the missus saying an OR nurse at a competing hospital [Samsung Medical Center in Gangnam] got the Vid. So, apparently they shut down the whole operating room facility on that basis (not sure if they shut the whole hospital). If an article gets written on it later today I'll post it. The upshot is the missus, who is a nurse practitioner at one of the three largest hospitals in Seoul, warned me not to go drinking with my mates this Friday lest I pass something on to her which will cause her hospital to get shutdown. We'll see if some kind of accord can be reached by then.

Here's today's story: S. Korea still vigilant over community spread; club cluster brought under control

EDIT: Here's a story on the hospital outbreak (it's four nurses now): 4 nurses at major Seoul hospital infected with COVID-19, facilities partially suspended

Cheers,
CB

[RangerJoe]

I just saw that Ely, MN, has a case. It is an entry point for the Boundary Waters Wilderness Canoe Area which is a misnomer since it is not a wilderness. A lot of it got logged out a long time ago (100+ years) and it takes 400 years of growth for it to be back to a true wilderness. That is the area where a bear researcher named Rodgers set up a bear center and had a facebook page for Lily the Bear. There is also a Wolf Center in that area.

There is also a resort that caters to Disabled Veterans in that area but anybody can go there. It is called Veterans on the Lake.

That whole area is a tourist hot spot for fishing, boating and canoe trips. I would hate to be a week or so away from civilization and get seriously ill. No motor boats except for some lake area on the edges of the BWCA. To the west is the Voyageurs National Park (rent a houseboat!) and to the north is a Canadian park as well. Don't expect cell phone reception in the BWCA nor the Canadian side.

[sPzAbt653]

CDC Confirms COVID Link to Inflammatory Syndrome in Kids; 145 Potential Cases in NYC

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/c ... c/2421547/

The CDC calls it multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). The syndrome has now been reported in nearly half the nation's states, cases were confirmed in young people ages 3-18.

[Lowpe]

An article on testing methods, growth in testing, accuracy.

The Latest in Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing Methods and Availability

https://www.goodrx.com/blog/coronavirus ... ilability/

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Guys, I just want to caution this group against reading too much into any published data on COVID-19. The issue centers around the testing. When some of the testing in use has 40% false positives and some approaching 20% false negatives, you just have to treat all of the data as suspect.

I can tell you that we don't use any of it. All of our outlooks are based upon inferential data that is far more solid. Example: # and % of ICU beds occupied by state and city.

Death Certificates (DC's) are a similar issue. Every state, and then county/city/hospital/doctor has their own form and guidelines for completing a DC. So, unless you understand the jurisdiction that the DC was issued in, you cannot judge how to use it. Example: some jurisdictions only allow for ultimate diagnosis, which for most COVID-19 patients will be pneumonia. There is no space for anything else. Others allow for additional complications. It depends. Now factor in the high rate of deaths, lack of storage AND poor testing quality ….

Just saying, don't put too much time and/or energy into any data yet. It will be August before we have reliable data and the Jan->Jun data will all get restated.

PS: I'm not suggesting that this is a hoax or anything like that. Quite the contrary, we've got 1800 Nurses/Medics on the front lines. I know what this beast is. I read charts half of my day. Trust me, HIPAA prohibits me from sharing any specifics, but this is a nasty bugger.

This is why I have stopped trusting all the statistical analysis that is being posted on the net - the reliability of tests, the methodology of testing, the extent of testing and the reporting of results have been all over the map, sometimes with deliberate manipulation to make things look better or worse.

Same for death statistics - the latest news that many organizations are changing the guidelines on which deaths are considered part of COVID-19 stats appears to be politically motivated to make reopening look less risky.

With so much playing with the info (what is collected and how), the data itself is useless. That is why I have become partial to anecdotal stories whether they be good news or bad news, as long as the facts are accurate. It's closer to how we assess risk in normal day-to-day living.

[Canoerebel]

There is some margin for people to interpret data differently but probably not as much as feared. If an instruction were handed down by a governor or the head of a state health department to "cook the books" to paint a rosier picture, or a bleaker picture, there would be leaks, the press would get ahold of the story, and the instigator would be hounded or demolished. It's far more likely that variations in reporting/tabulating are good faith differences in how jurisdictions or entities or individuals do things. As we've noted before, there is merit in the statistics, especially as long as a given jurisdiction is consistent in reporting. Thus, if Belgium reports 200 deaths on April 15 and 25 today, it means something, even if Belgium counts differently than Denmark.

[Lowpe]

Kind of like this. Happens very frequently here in PA.

Armstrong County coroner claims state COVID-19 data 'inflated' in his region

https://www.post-gazette.com/local/nort ... 2005190070

[obvert]

As schools begin to open and prepare to open all over Europe and elsewhere, this is getting to be a worry. The paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome has begun to be seen more frequently in the UK. I'm curious why not earlier, or if it was just mistaken for other illnesses previously.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... n-children

Many schools have been open for almost two weeks with no known resulting spike in new case. Of course course there is still reason for caution since this is a short duration to see effects on either the children or adults. The paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome seems to occur well after a Covid infection has has come and gone.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... n-covid-19

[Lowpe]

CDC: Virus 'does not spread easily' on contaminated surfaces

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/0 ... /24356961/

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

CDC: Virus 'does not spread easily' on contaminated surfaces

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/0 ... /24356961/

So person to person is still the most important type of transmission. So, no matter how hot she is, if she is literally hot, no deep kissing . . . [:@]

[RangerJoe]

When to a bank today and they only allowed one customer in the lobby at a time. There were actually three tellers on duty with three other bankers that I saw so they are light on the normal staff.

Walmart took out their benches. No benches outside either where the bus comes. They turned off the water fountains and jacked up the price of the cold beverages by the checkout as well. No large bags for larger items either. I said something to a cashier supervisor and she said to complain at walmart dot com. I said no, I will look up the e-mail addresses of the president, CEO, and the members of the board and complain to them. [:D] The best part is, I can get a deal where the law firm will only take 20% of a settlement . . .

[CaptBeefheart]

Here's one for the lighter side of COVID-19 files: Football league to discuss discipline for club over sex dolls in stands

This is metric "football," by the way. Since the dolls are all wearing masks, it doesn't look too bad to me. Kudos to the lad who came up with the idea.


Here's part two of the disparate impact on East vs. West: Why East beat West on Covid-19 (Part 2)

There's a lot of speculation on why Asia in general has done relatively well in the piece. Here's a snippet discussing the tuberculosis vaccine:


Hopes for a silver-bullet medicine to counter Covid-19 have so far proved unfounded. While the world awaits a dedicated Covid-19 vaccine, BCG, a 100-year-old tuberculosis vaccination that appears to train or stimulate the overall immune system, may provide a very important shield.

“If I were to identify one factor” in the East-West conundrum, “it would be levels of BCG vaccination,” said Gurel.

Maps of the level of BCG vaccination show a strikingly close correlation to numbers of Covid-19 casualties. According to the BCG World Atlas, most of Western Europe including France, Spain and the UK had past national BCG vaccination policies. In Italy and the United States, BCG was only recommended for select groups.

Most of Eastern Europe and Asia, which have weathered the crisis more effectively, maintain ongoing national BCG vaccination programs.

Differences between neighbors are striking. Spain suffered high infection and mortality rates, while Portugal (which has a BCG program) did not, despite their shared border, Gurel noted. Moreover, Covid-19 rates in western Germany were higher in the country’s east, which previously had BCG vaccinations, he said.


He also was the only reporter to bother to go to the King Club (ground zero for the club outbreak we had on May 1) and interview the owner. That's in this good piece on the impact on nightlife across Asia: Covid-19 turns the lights out on Asia’s nightlife

Quote from the club owner: “We did not let people in without masks, we did temperature tests on the doors and we took the names and phone numbers of everyone who came in,” he told Asia Times. “We did everything the authorities asked us to do – but it still happened! It’s a nightmare.”

The other big news is public schools are re-opening today, with high school seniors going back first.

Cheers,
CB

[RangerJoe]

A funny one about the dolls. Your friend has another good one and something to think about with that vaccine.

Here is a question about this person, I know that he does not have a driver's license yet, does this also cover his high school diploma and will his further educational expenses be covered by the state?

Due to COVID-19, Elliott Tanner's graduation, like so many students, will be a virtual one. Despite the changes, his family is hoping to make his day special.
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In just a few weeks, Elliott Tanner will mark a major milestone. He’s part of the Normandale Community College graduating class of 2020 and he’s just 11-years-old.
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And this year he began studying physics at the University of Minnesota.

"I’m hoping to either be a physics professor or a theoretical physicist or a mathematician," said Elliott.
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Elliott, we're told, will be graduating with high honors. He has roughly a few more semesters before he receives his degree from the University of Minnesota.

https://www.fox9.com/news/11-year-old-b ... -minnesota [&o]

So will he get his PhD before he gets his drivers license? Will he be a graduate teaching assistant in a few years? Imagine just what that will look like! [X(]

[sPzAbt653]

Navajo Nation Has Highest Covid-19 Infection Rate in the U.S.
https://www.ecowatch.com/navajo-nation- ... belltitem2

The Navajo Nation already has high risk factors of comorbidities, including diabetes, lung disease, high-blood pressure, hypertension and heart disease. There's also a lack of running water, medical infrastructure, internet access, information and adequate housing. Navajo also tend to live in close quarters with multiple generations in one household.

[Lowpe]

Here is another approach to covid, from Senegal.

Senegal Pledges A Bed For Every Coronavirus Patient — And Their Contacts, Too
May 17, 20207:10 AM ET

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... ntacts-too