Test Game AAR using Hot Seat

[kennonlightfoot]

Dec 21 US Philippines

Slowly starving them out. The already landed units move forward. Two Armies are landed to support. The 12th from Formosa at Aparri and the 17th from Japan at Legaspi.

I made an air strike to sink the Skip Jack. It probably wasn't necessary but I am not that sure how quickly bottomed ships can recover.

I also bring down from Japan my two Large BB's and station them at Aparri in case they are needed.

The CVL's I had deployed earlier are sent to Saigon in preparation for going into the Indian Ocean.

Positions now

[kennonlightfoot]

Dec 21 Japanese Western Areas

Units mostly advancing to contact but not enough points to attack.
The army moves next to Singapore.
The Burma campaign get's serious with the Japanese moving up to the Salween river line.
The ships used last turn move into ports for refueling except for a group to see if Rangoon can be blockaded.

Borneo is taken with landings in Sarawak and Kuala Beloit. With DEI surrendered Singapore is now isolated. And, all the oil fields are now in Japanese control.

Nothing much happens in China due to rains. Some movement to get closer to the front lines and secure supply lines.

Production

The Japanese put into production 1 Inf Div, 2 Oilers, 1 Supply Truck.

The Reinf & Upgrades are set to 100. I hope to have enough production stockpile each turn to produce another infantry division. Since the reinforcement pool of 100 is so small I will use the Priority setting to get it to units that are fighting. This will make it a little difficult to bring my air units up to full strength.

At end of turn the Japanese still have 89 Landing Ships. This turn they only used 19. That will leave more than enough to threaten major land invasion in India or Australia once the armies are freed up to do it.

[kennonlightfoot]

Dec 21 Allies

Supply to Singapore is cut off with fall of Borneo and NEI.
Burma road is still open though.
Lexington and Enterprise arrive.
The UK receives a DD, De Ruter.
Almost all of the US BB's are at full strength except the bottomed ones.

But blockades are now in place on Philippines, Sura, Noumea, and Port Moresby.
The NZ air unit still can't reach Australia but I moved it to the NW hex of the island to see if any of the Australian land hexes on the east coast it can reach from there support air.

Burma
A new line out of attack range of the Japanese is formed but a garrison is left to die in Rangoon to help slow them. There doesn't appear to be an immediate threat to Bombay so that Corps splits again and sends a division to the Burma front. The remaining unit is set on priority to get it up to strength.

China is rained out so only some adjustments to the line are made.

Production
India had enough PP to make all their key units active, so now switch to 100 points to Reinforcements/Upgrades.
China also upped to all points going to Reinforcements.
UK builds another Infantry unit. Hopefully it can find a way to get them to India.
US has 248 PP in inventory so it builds:
1 Inf Div
1 LS + 2 Oilers using up its remaining shipyard capacity.
2 Supply Trucks
4 AA

Supply Trucks and AA are a quick way to reinforce the allies. They can usually be placed just about anywhere but China.

If found that I had used all my US MM capacity and the UK still had excess MM capacity so I upped my convoys.
Extra 10 PP to Australia and another 60 to UK.

The UK can't just turn around and forward the US supplies to India but it does increase the UK production number which then increases the amount of PP that can be shipped.

Problems I foresee but have no tested answer for:

As the last of the islands fall the Japanese will turn to extending their air and naval coverage further south. It won't be long before Kido Butai sits down on the South Pacific convoy route and dares the US to do anything about it other than cut off supplies to their allies or watch their Merchant Marine go to the bottom of the Pacific.

In March the US will have transports but how do they get them to Australia without the fast loops? I have no idea how difficult this will be since I have never tested. By then New Zealand will probably be the only Allied controlled base between the US and Sydney. If the Allies are lucky these convoys can move without being spotted. But I have never tested how blind the Japanese are if they have a screen of destroyers and subs out searching.

These things are also hard to test in hot seat because you know what is going on with both sides.

Any ideas out there?

Here is what Burma looks like:

[eskuche]

If Nimitz could keep half the IJN surface fleet on convoy attack duty for 500,000 tons shipping lost a month in 1943 he'd be delighted.

[kennonlightfoot]

ORIGINAL: eskuche

If Nimitz could keep half the IJN surface fleet on convoy attack duty for 500,000 tons shipping lost a month in 1943 he'd be delighted.

Don't think he would be delighted if that fleet completely shutdown all supply to UK, India and Australia.
Especially since it has nothing better to do unless the American fleet comes out.

[kennonlightfoot]

Which leads to the Challenge

What would you do with the following situation:

Kido Butai has come out to break the Allied supply chain. The fleet has placed itself on the South Pacific convoy route and already sent 8 Merchants to the bottom. That is after expending all its action points to get there.

The US either has drive that fleet off, create a diversion to draw it away, shut down the convoy route until April at the earlies but probably July when the have six CV, shut down until 43, or watch it sink 10-20 merchants every turn.

The situation is shown on the map below.

The US has the following in the area:
Pearl Harbor: 2 CV, 1 full str BB, 1 3/4 BB, 3 CA, 5 DD, 1 SS.
Los Angeles: 2 CV, 4 DD.
San Diego: 1 DD
New Zealand: 1 low strength Air unit.
In the ocean just east of New Zealand: 1 sub

What would you do this turn and maybe a few turns following for something more complicated?

The map shows all you know about Japanese positions.
If you want some specific info on US forces or distance I can add that.

Are you going to do a Halsey and go out fighting?
Watch your allies starve?
Pick off some of those small fleets? Or are they decoys to draw the US carriers close enough for Kido Butai to strike? Are there BB in range elsewhere?
Or, be safe and keep your fleet safe until its strong enough?

[eskuche]

That depends entirely on where mini-KB is. Allied navy should be 2/3 of the way to Australia already.

If I'm playing Japan, the bulk of the BB/BC fleet and maybe some of the carriers are off destroying the Burma line, which is impossible to hold with even 80% efficient Japanese play.

[kennonlightfoot]

In the challenge you know where Kido Butai is because they attacked the convoy lane near New Zealand. Which is why I added the inset showing all of its ships. That is the bad part of hitting the convoy route. But the purpose of the Japanese move is a win win for them. If the Allies don't respond with their CV's they have to shut down the South Pacific convoy route. If the Allies respond and come within 48 hexes of Kido Butai they are going to strike unless weather prevents it (which is something the Allies never know).

There are other targets at sea that the CV's could strike.
Also, they could move to blockade one of the manned Japanese held islands hoping the threat of losing a unit will make Kido Butai withdraw.

But all possible targets are in range of Kido Butai and still unknown concentrations of BB/BC's.

If the US had its transports and landing ships it would have a wider range of responses. But that will be March and that is a long time to leave Australia isolated or, if not, to lose Merchants.

I forgot to mention that I am playing assuming ver 3 will have no loops so the US can't use that as a way to redeploy.

My move would be to concentrate the fleet at Pearl Harbor (right now its split), shutdown the convoy route, and pray for a better idea or situation later.

Does any one have a better plan than losing?

[kennonlightfoot]

If I'm playing Japan, the bulk of the BB/BC fleet and maybe some of the carriers are off destroying the Burma line,

Why?
The Burma force has three much more useful air units and can easily break any line the Indian army tries to form. They will soon have two more armies supporting the drive. They can't afford to lose any divisions because they have to few to make a line as it is. I don't see anything they can do other than retreat every time the Japanese units catch up with them.

What is a danger to the Burma war is supplies reaching them so they can rebuild there divisions and purchase more. Japan can shut that down by putting surface fleets on the convoy routes.

The only serious threat the Allies have is giving up Australia and sending the US CV fleet to India. Without the loops this takes a long time and has the danger of the fleet being spotted as it passes below Australia. And, remember Kido Butai is closer to India than the US fleet is.

So, does anyone have a plan?
Should go to India with the US fleet be one of those?
Or should the US fleet head for Sydney and see what it can do under at least a little land based air power?
If Kido Butai can't be countered how are transports going to get through?

[eskuche]

It doesn't matter how much supplies get in if you remove two counters on turn 2 with the above play and then 2 more in Ceylon the next few turns. Without naval support, that attack is 3:1, which means you're gambling your initiative and two free divisions on a die roll. Having the second IJN fleet in the west allows the early Ceylon play with optional jumping to Bombay, especially if India is reinforcing the eastern divisions and not garrisons.

[kennonlightfoot]

1942 Jan 4 Japanese

No great ideas came from challenge yet so I forge on.
Most of the activity this turn is just my troops spreading out in Burma and Philippines while my island taking expands in the South Pacific. Singapore is now isolated along with the forces in the Philippines and Port Mosby.
The islands of Fiji and Noumea are blockaded.

Burma

My army there moves on Rangoon achieving 9:1 odds and drives the defender out. Rangoon falls to the Japanese

[kennonlightfoot]

Jan 4 Japan Cont'd

South Pacific

This was the situation I posted for the challenge.
Kido Butai has moved onto the US's South Pacific convoy route. Since it is used by both the US and UK, this will hit both of them. This first attack won't be excessive since the fleet used up its action points to get there.

The Japanese also deployed some troop transports around the area to the east in preparation for taking some of those islands so the US won't have them as bases to help move transports to Australia.

All this was accompanied by the usual island hopping. Small units took Port Vila, Kavieng, Muda, Namuga, and Nauru.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Jan 4 Allied Turn

The convoy attack by Kido Butai resulted in 6 Merchant sunk. The US problem is that the next round will be in the 20+ range based on my test so they will have to shut down their convoys until they either have a fix or just have to sacrifice the Merchants. They only have 43 so it won't last long. No extended Battle of the Atlantic here.

The blockades on Suva, Noumae, Port Moresby, Philippines and Singapore are rapidly reducing these forces.
The New Zealand Air unit can't reach a land-able hex in Australia so it will stay in New Zealand until transport is available.

On the bright side two US CV's arrive but can a four CV fleet operate near Kido Butai?

US shuts down its Convoys. UK redirects all its Merchants to India.

South Pacific

US moves its fleets to form the 4 CV Main Fleet near the convoy route SE of the West Coast. Two subs are sent to support them.

Burma

Indian forces fall back to Irrawaddy river line and use production to make two more garrisons active.

China

Minor adjustments to the line to prevent surrounds and shorten the frontage.

Production:
UK builds 1 Infantry div, 2 AA, and 1 Supply Truck
US Builds 1 Infantry div, 2 AA and 1 Supply Truck. Also, US increase its Reinf/Upgrade rate to 300.

The building of AA and Supply units is a quick way to get aid to the Allies since they don't require movement. But they take time before they are deployed. And, as long as the US can't send production to its allies just as well rebuild its forces.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Jan 18 Japanese Turn

Made an error. Forgot the the UK receives supplies (imports) using the S. Pacific route so they got hit for 11 more Merchants last turn. This means they will have to turn off the S. Pacific convoy route which is also their source of oil (apparently no off map supply).

The blockade ships have to be rotated for resupply but otherwise no action around the islands.

China
Not much happening other than the continued slow advance of the armies intended to take Changsha.

Burma
The Burma forces move up on the new Indian line along the river by Irrawaddy.

India
The Japanese put together a force based on its 3 CVL's and move them to attack the Indian Convoy route. The force consists of 3 CVL, 1 BC, 2 CA, and 4 DD.

South Pacific
Rain blinds the Japanese but I suspect it also blinded the US.
Port Moresby is overrun.
Kido shifts further west where it is still in range of Fiji in case the US tries anything. The new position will allow it to support landing along most of the Australian coast if the weather is good next turn.

Small unit landings are made on the Cooke Islands. US subs were near by but failed to intercept.
The Japanese have positioned themselves for the next expansion of the bubble.

Japan is down to 66 Landing Shipts.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Jan 18 Allied Turn

As I mentioned I made an error resulting in loss of 11 UK merchants.
US can "see" Kido Butai as wells as some other ship concentrations at Henderson (3 BB), Espirito Santo (4 ships), Rabaul (8 ships), and all the blockaders. Blockades are in place on Sava, Philippines and Singapore reducing them to 0 supply.
Noumea garrison surrendered.

In China the line is adjust some to shorten it.

Burma

Again the Indian army pulls back to minimize attacks from the now 2 army Japanese force facing it.

[kennonlightfoot]

Jan 18 Allied Contd

South Pacific

The US fleet moves as far as it can toward Australia which leaves them in the position shown below. I placed two subs forward to hopefully intercept Kido if it tries to get in striking distance. But the main fleet is more than 224 hexes from it.

Both the UK and US shutdown the all convoy routes.
US cuts back reinf/upgrade to 100 so it can accumulate enough PP to start building Merchants.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Feb 1 Japan

General Situation
Oil Production: 61 with upkeep 47 and stockpile of 150 (29%).
Only 66 landing ships and 3 Oilers left until new reinforcements.
The CVL fleet will continue sitting on the Indian Convoy route.
The US fleet is invisible, so don't know what its up too (at least in pretend).

I'll let Singapore starve another turn.
Burma line closes up on new Indian line but doesn't have any attacks.
China is rained out.
I move a mobile force to Rangoon for possible invasion of India.

Since I am also planning landings in Australia if the US fleet can't do anything, I am going to take out Manila this turn to free up those armies. Odds are 9:1 so it is easily done. BB's and Air redeploy toward Rabaul area.

South Pacific

More islands taken (Rangiron, Raigtea).
Subs move to blocade Tonga now that garrison at Noumea gave up.
Suva still under blockade, should die soon.
Small unit lands on New Caledonia. It will be able to take Noumea next turn.

Invasion of Australia.

I land three units, two north and south of Mackay and one further south to block any move north. Kido Butai comes over to provide an air strike. Two DD's are used to resupply the infantry for the attack. 4 BB's move adjacent to support. This gives 9:1 odds. Easily driving the defender back and occupying Mackay.

Production

Japan continues to put one infantry division in reinforcements each turn plus some type support unit.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Feb 1 Allies

Nothing but bad news for Allies.
The Philippines surrenders.
The US has low oil: 20 production, 19 upkeep, and 34 stock (4%).
The UK has practically no oil: 0 production, 2 upkeep and 11 stockpile (0%).

This was unexpected. I didn't realize the UK drew its oil from the two convoy routes. Although it could have been the US that was providing all of it. This means the UK combat ships are grounded. I am not even sure if their transports can operate if their stockpile hits 0.

That means no UK battleships to support the US carrier fleet. Not even the 1 CVL will be useable.

US and UK may have to play a cat and mouse game of turning on and off convoys. But the Japanese have the advantage since they go first and know the weather.

I keep finding new ways to stomp on the Allies but so far nothing to counter them with. The next test to come will be in March when the US and UK must find a way to get transport moving to India and Australia.

For now the US fleet goes to Sydney where it at least has an air unit for protection. This could easily turn into disaster if Kido Butai gets a good air assault against the fleet in Sydney. Still waiting on AA guns.

As for the Australian invasion:

Everything north of Rock Hampton is cut off by the Japanese landings and out of supply. The units will stay in place, garrisoning the ports for as long as they can. Mackay is a level 2 port so it can't supply much. The Japanese will need the two bigger level 4 ports pretty soon. But without units to send without exposing more ports to invasion, it won't last long. Rock Hampton can't be defended once they start moving around the port to the west.

Only fresh infantry from the US can save Australia and that won't happen until the first ships reach the first of April.

Meanwhile, the US puts 2 Merchants into production and increase reinf/upgrades to 200 in preparation for the coming fight.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Feb 15 Japan

Situation
China snowed in. But one attack to push back one of the units below Changsha.
Philippine forces redeploy to support Australia attack.
Singapore falls to a 9:1 attack.

Northern Australia having rain.
Japan down to 30 Landing Ships and won't get reinforcements of until Mar 7.

South Pacific
Take a few more islands, Normea and Milne Bay.
Resupply Kido and move to camp convoy route while in range of coast and Fiji.
US fleet went invisible.

Australia

The former Austi garrison is driven back another hex to make room for reinforcements.
And army and a division are sent into Mackay to reinforce the landing.
Bridge head is expanded.

[kennonlightfoot]

Feb 15 Japan cont'd

Burma

The two armies and 3 Divisions in Burma continue pushing back the Indian line. This time the weather is clear and the units closed up so they drive two Indian divisions back.