Kimmel and Short: Scapegoats or Guilty

[esteban]

Guilty. They had the forces in the Hawaiian Islands to conduct a much more aggressive reconaissance of the area around PH, but they didn't order aerial searches of the region.

Short just plain missed the threat when he ordered the Army Air Corps aircraft to be placed together in the middle of the airfields to protect them from sabotage. That's kind of cruel, but throughout history lots of commanders have been relieved or disgraced simply because they prepared for the wrong enemy action.

[waynec]

Hi, If FDR had known the Japanese were coming having the USN waiting in ambush would have been just as good (well better) then having it sunk. The USA would have won the war on the first day.

perhaps IF we pulled off a midway type ambush because of good intel.

however we didn't have good intel, no one knew where the japanese carriers were so an ambush was out of the question. the only positive thing might have been nagumo turning back after being spotted per his orders. we had 3 carriers with inferior planes and inferior experience against 6 japanese carriers. the battleships would have never got into the fight and all had inadequate ww1 era aa guns. assuming pre ww2 plans, and tankerace no doubt is the resident expert given his plan orange work, the carriers would not be operating directly with the battleships and thus the 6o fighters would be dispersed flying cap for the battleships and the carriers. the japanese would have focused on the carriers and then the battleships would have been vulnerabl (witness prince of wales and repulse)

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: waynec


well the B-17s weren't searching anywhere. all the b-17s in hawaii werenot based there but were enroute to the phillipines. so while there were B-17s in hawaii they were not a cohesive squadron and really not capable of combat operations. besides army pilots had limited experience and training in long over water flying and ship recognition.

Source for B17s searching south and southwest of Hawaii .. page 137 Schom, "The Eagle and the Rising Run", Norton, 2004.

[waynec]

Hi, They had sent PBY to Midway and Johnston. They were not flying because it was the weekend.
What would have happened if a USN plane or submarine had spotted the IJN CV (without the IJN knowing it)

i think we would have gotten our butts kicked.

[mogami]

Hi, Well the ships would have been out of port and the AA guns in port would have been loaded and waiting and fighters up. I don't see the Japanese sinking anything.



Even if search planes had not spotted the IJN when asked "Did you have search planes out" Kimmel and Short could have answered "yes"

[waynec]

Source for B17s searching south and southwest of Hawaii .. page 137 Schom, "The Eagle and the Rising Run", Norton, 2004.

thanks looked it up. no doubt a very limited search due to the numbers available and other missions assigned to them

[Skyros]

The worst thing Kimmel could have done was to sortie the battleships without air cover. At least at Pearl the ships could be salvaged and put back into service.

Their is enough blame to go around to Kimmel, Short and the other politicians and officers. What burns me is MacArthur becoming a "hero" after bungeling the defense of the PI. I read somewhere of some of the last Army/Navy evacuated from PI were singing anti MacArthur songs as they walked down the streets of Darwin. They were quickly told to shut up since he was now a "Hero".

[paullus99]

The battleships could have been sortied to the south & southeast, to get them out of harm's way - if there had been time. Otherwise, at the least the harbor defenses should have been able to inflict much heavier losses on the japanese strikes, possibly slowing down their future combat operations (while replacements were brought up).

[Yamato hugger]

i DO NOT believ fdr or churchill knew about the attack and deliberately let it happen without giving a warning

But they (meaning Washington) DID give warning. I could list my reasonings why I believe as I do, and you could list the reasons why you believe as you do and ultimately neither of us would convince the other. As I said, we will never truely know for sure 1 way or the other. This is a subjuct it is best to say we agree to disagree and move on [;)]

[mogami]

Hi, I don't believe FDR (or anyone) knew IJN CV were headed for PH.
But if they did know then letting it strike makes no sense.
If you know CV are coming to attack a precise target you don't have to search the entire Pacific to be waiting for it.
You know it is going to launch at less then XXX miles (the range of the aircraft)
And you know it is going to avoid Midway and Johnston (The Japanese did not know we were not flying patrol) And you can bet it is going to avoid normal shipping lanes.

Now you get out your map. Draw a circle around PH out to the range of the enemy bombers. Now you fill in the areas covered by patrols from Midway and Johnson ( as the Japanese would think they existed) fill in the normal shipping routes.
Now you look in the areas that are toward Japan. You have a very small cone to search.
The Japanese have to stay out of spotting range to day before their strike and close during the night.
At dawn they launch a strike towards a deserted PH and the USN CV launch strikes against the IJN CV (PH LBA is already airborne) The USN surface element is standing off enroute towards engaging what is left from the air attacks. (The IJN strike fleet is not a powerfull surface force)
As soon as the IJN launch PH radar shows exactly where to direct Allied strikes.

So I don't think anyone knew in advance because it is too easy to convert that knowledge into a victory that provides too much benifit (There is no plus side for the USA in letting the strike happen) If it is war FDR wanted getting a smashing victory on day one is good and no one will doubt Japan started it simply by their being where they were (they sent a strike first)

[waynec]

Hi, Well the ships would have been out of port and the AA guns in port would have been loaded and waiting and fighters up. I don't see the Japanese sinking anything.

Even if search planes had not spotted the IJN when asked "Did you have search planes out" Kimmel and Short could have answered "yes"

I agree about the fighters being up and aa guns manned. the japanese would have lost more planes. i wonder if the japanes would have bombed the tank farms or the dockyards and other port facilities if the battleships w/ their cruisers and destroyers were at sea. if the ships were far enough out and not spotted they may have been okay. had they been close in would the japanese changed their attack to go after the fleet? and would the army have provided air cover or been more concerned with defending their own bases? given the initial floatpalne flying over pearl signals the fleet is gone and there are no carriers, would nagumo started a search for the fleet or withdrawn to the north out of danger? interesting to discuss.

pearl harbor alternate history article

[Tom Hunter]

Guilty

First because it was their responisbility and they failed. Sometimes I am captain of a 32' sailboat, when I am its my responsibility period end. Pearl was their responsibility and they got suprised and smashed.

Second (and I wish I could remember the title of the book) a fair amount of work done by Short or Kimmels (can't remember which) predicessor on how to guard against a Japanese CV attack that Short or Kimmel chose not to read. Instead on the way out to Pearl he read a novel. Kimmel did not provide Short with all the intelligence he had available either.

There was more confusion and screw ups than their should have been in an area under that much threat. This was true elsewhere in American territory as well. Its ironic that the locations that were really ready to meet the Japanese were Wake an Midway which were low value targets but the high value targets of Pearl and Clark were suprised (Pearl) or complacent (Clark).

[bradfordkay]

I feel that they were both derelict in their duty by not having both long range air search patrols and local CAP up at the time. While they didn't have enough a/c to perform a thorough search, it appears that they didn't have any up that morning (please prove me wrong here). Not having any CAP up at all after the war warnings was gross dereliction IMO.

Short was a fool to group the a/c the way he did. He had plenty of soldiers, so if he was worried about sabotage he should have vastly increased the guard while keeping the a/c in wartime dispersal patterns.

As far as the Philippine Air Forces are concerned, I believe that the case was that they were in the process of landing and refueling from early patrols when they were hit. The weather over the Japanese bases delayed the JApanese strike, and the ensuing strike just happened to coincide with the need to refuel US aircraft. Most of you know me as a MacArthur hater, so please understand that I am not trying to support him on pronciple - I just believe in being fair.

[mogami]

Hi, While having a BB sunk at sea would be worse it is also much harder to hit a moving BB surrounded by escorts. (The only Allied BB sunk by air attack in all of WWII were POW and Repulse and they were hit by a large strike that knew where they were)
Kates armed with bombs for airfield attack are not going to hurt them. Vals did not hurt the BB in port.

While there is still a debate over the fuel farm (with 4 million tons of fuel) take a look at it. It is a hard target to destroy
It is not a giant tank it is many smaller tanks surrounded by walls capable of holding the contents of the tanks and provided with foam distributers to extingush fires

[Yamato hugger]

You cant blame Short or Kimmel for failure to plan for a CV raid. It is like blaming the mayor of Armpit Alabama for not having a plan on what to do it a UFO lands on the city hall lawn. A CV raid on a base 3000+ miles in the rear is not something you realistically can plan for. It is the failures on the local level. Failure to disperse aircraft. Failure to fly ASW patrols. Failure to guard against "realistic" threats that they should have and were relieved from.

[mogami]

Hi, Had in thelast 2 years UFO's been landing in other locations then you could blame a person in charge of dealing with UFO's for not being ready when one landed.
Ports had been attacked by air and submarine and frogmen in the recent past and yet a person in charge of his countries major Naval Base was caught by surprise by an attack that was a mirror of a prior attack by a nation that had begun all of it's wars in the past 50 years with surprise attacks.

[Knaust]

Please read also
The West Point Military History Series
The Second World War
Asia and the Pacific
Thomas E.Griess, Series Editor
1984

pag. 52
Because atmospheric conditions had blocked the radio channel to Honolulu...the warning message reached Honolulu at 7:33 AM, but the messenger making the delivery was caught in the rain of Japanese bombs.
We shall never know whether a more expedient dispatch of the final warning message might have blunted the Japanese strike on Pearl Harbor. It is clear, however, that no one in Washington seems to have considered using the telephone, which might have given Short and Kimmel about an hour's preparation time - if it is assumed that they would have taken the message seriously and gone to full alert status at once.

[Yamato hugger]

Hi, Had in thelast 2 years UFO's been landing in other locations then you could blame a person in charge of dealing with UFO's for not being ready when one landed.
Ports had been attacked by air and submarine and frogmen in the recent past and yet a person in charge of his countries major Naval Base was caught by surprise by an attack that was a mirror of a prior attack by a nation that had begun all of it's wars in the past 50 years with surprise attacks.

In all of history, no one had ever attacked a base 3000 miles in the rear area as a start of a war. In all military respects, to send your entire strike force in 1 sortie well into the enemys rear area on a "raid", no matter what the possible outcome is a stupid plan. What people dont seem to realize is that while yes, it was "proven" that Peral Harbor could be attacked by a CV force, it was equally "proven" that a CV force could attack the Panama Canal also. No one is screaming that they should have defended there, as it wasnt attacked. But what if it had been? UFOs havent been landing for 2 years, and CV raids deep in the rear werent a common occurance, and to "plan" for one isnt realistic.

[Tom Hunter]

I am glad Yamatohugger is not doing my planning. [:)]

[mogami]

Hi, When I look at a map I don't see PH as the "rear" in a conflict between Japan and the USA. It kind of looks like "the main forward base" to me.
Now a strike by Japan on say Philadelphia would be a strike on the USA's rear and I doubt Philly was ready for such a strike.