AI for MWiF - Germany

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: c92nichj

A DIV invading can be intercepted, ecept if there are no CW ships in the North Sea, but as for the lack of CW Sea lift to ship troops in Rotterdam, this would be poor CW play, and I prefer not to rely on poor enemy play to win.

A DIV invasion is not as bad/risky as it sounds.

Assume you sail with Gnesenau to the 3 box on your 3rd pulse loaded with a DIV you also fly the NAV there and maybe the longrange fighter to the 2 box.Assuming british ships in the 4 box, there is 54% chance that there will be no combat or that you get enough SP to be able to avoid combat. CW has 18% chance to find you on 4 suprise points which is required to call a Surface combat otherwise you'll need to clear through atleast three factors to be sure to abort the german planes.

Next impulse 4 the allies can search again you still got 54% chance of avoiding the combat alltogether and CW only have 18% chance of finding with 4+ SP's.

If you survive those two impulses at sea you can decide to declare war on impulse 5 no search roll needed to be made, if you didn't survive just bite the bullet and go for the m/a PARA. If you did survive you can declare war and take out Netherlands in 39 Belgium in J/F 40 if the weather permits, its ok with snow or rain. And be in great position by M/A for france. It might even go quicker in my current game I viched france J/F '40, with a poland first strategy, lucky weather rolls though.

You can alos sail out during impulse 1 in N/D hoping for rain or better weather by impulse three(50%), you will even have a bigger chance of sucess since CW will not be position in the four box on your first pulse.

Of course this strategy depends on how the CW fleet is setup, if all of it is focussed on the North Sea maybe you will not go for it, but it is not uncommon that the CW will put some of his CV's in Gibraltar early to have some projection power in the med.

This level of detail is very helpful to me for the AIO.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

E.I. BALKANS
Germany has to decide what to do with the Balkans, and precisely, with Yugoslavia & Bessarabia. There are two broad choices : Align or Conquer Yugoslavia, in the aim of keeping Bessarabia or leaving it to USSR.
E.I.1. Align Yugoslavia
E.I.1.a. Points of interest of this inner strategy (advantages & drawbacks)
- Aligning Yugoslavia on Italy to provide Italy with a fall back Home country when Italy will be incompletely conquered. Aligning Yugoslavia on Germany is less interesting.
- Yugoslavian units won't cooperate with the Germany units, so they won't be as useful to garrison France for instance. They will be better left in the Balkans.
- Germany won't have the Zagreb City-based volunteer MTN unit (because Zagreb won't be Germany controlled).
- Germany won't have the Rumanian HQ, if done in 1939. Anyway, this is USSR who is dealing the cards here, and if USSR demands the Bessarabia in 1939, Germany has to choose whether still to follow this ploy or not.
E.I.1.b. Chain of events to follow to achieve this
Germany & Italy must control, one way or another, all countries around Yugoslavia.
- USSR demands the Bessarabia --> Germany accepts.
- Hungary & Bulgaria demand their share of Rumania --> Germany refuses.
- Germany immediately Declare war on Hungary, Declare War on Bulgaria (to prevent USSR from aligning it), Aligns Rumania (mandatory when refusing the Hungarian & Bulgarian demands).
- Hungary is dealt with immediately with troops prepared for this.
- Bulgaria is dealt by the Rumanian units first, reinforced by the victors of Hungary next.
- Declare war to Greece, and conquer Greece with the army victorious in Hungary & Bulgaria, and Athens with an Italian unit (to allow the Italians to align Yugoslavia).
E.I.2. Conquer Yugoslavia
E.I.2.a. Points of interest of this inner strategy (advantages & drawbacks)
- This allows for a follow up of aligning Rumania, thus denying the Bessarabia to URSS.
- This prevents the alignment of Yugoslavia on Italy.
- Germany won't have the Rumanian HQ if done in 1939, and if Germany tries to postpone this into 1940, USSR will demand Bessarabia before Germany can Declare War on Yugoslavia, leaving the case resolved by who has the Initiative in J/F 40.
E.I.2.b. Chain of events to follow to achieve this
- USSR did not demand the Bessarabia.
- Germany Declare War to Yugoslavia and immediately align Rumania.
- Next Impulse, Germany aligns Hungary.
- As soon as Belgrade is in German hands, Germany aligns Bulgaria.
- Now Germany can choose to declare war on Greece or not, depending on which Grand Strategy it is. Greece is a good supply throughput for Axis troops in Libya / Egypt, needing only 1 CP in the Eastern Med to supply the North African Theater (no CP in the Italian Sea needed).

Not surprisingly, I get confused every time I think about the Balkan political rules.

How about viewing this from the USSR side? Should the USSR demand Bessarabia? When playing chess there often occurs a situation with pawns in the center of the board where both players can make captures. There might even be multiple captures possible by both players. In chess parlance this is referred to as 'tension'. If either player starts the sequence of captures so that pieces are removed from board, this is called simplifying the position by removing the tension in the center of the board. Indeed, the position is much simpler to analyze and one of the reasons that weaker players choose to exchange all the pawns is so they don't have to think so hard about all the possibilities. I see the Balkans in WIF as being similar. However, if the AIO can have all the ramifications of each decision worked out in advance, then the AIO can maintain the tension until the ideal moment for resolving it. That is what I would like to acheive. Can you help me understand the Balkans to that fine level of detail? The two opponents are Germnany and the USSR, what should each of them do when? Patrice has laid out the above for the German side. Do you agree with that analysis? And, as I asked earlier, what should the USSR do?

[Froonp]

(moved to the AIO for USSR thread)

[Neilster]

Bump. I didn't want this to fall off the end of the thread list and it might be handy to make it more visible for newcomers to read.

Cheers, Neilster

[trees trees]

Rotterdam: you may just wish to skip trying a Para or invasion attack and sucker the British into sitting there for awhile (to fit with your plans elsewhere on the map (locally an O-chit to break the French line)), until you can turn and smash them, or just regularly try flippping them (Spitfires don't bother your ART) to use up CW activities unflipping them. Defensive Shore Bombardment is a major factor here too.

The Germans can screen Gibraltar with strong NAV and FTR-3 forces in 1941, and a serious Battle of the Atlantic, while they take the Mid-East oil (Malta > Suez > beyond). This is a litle riskier since the Bear gets stronger while he sleeps.

[Neilster]

Falling off the end of the list. Time to bump it for the new people.

Cheers, Neilster

[Arron69]

I have tried and succeded a sealion game, The KEY is taking gibraltar and letting the Italian Fleet help you. From game start the fleet MUST have top priority and especially the Italian and German CVs and both the condors are a must, also Amph and Trns will be needed. I take gibraltar through Spain, and with Italian help. Colapse the Vichy to get a wider front. And after Spain you fight it out with the Royal Navy, until you belive that you can hold the North Sea, then its an invasion on Southern England, and then just a matter of reenforcing and expanding the bridgehead. Once you have taken the UK, switch to land prod. And fight the mighty bear, who will be wanting blood by now. The dangerous part of this plan is that the loss of one or two Axis battleship early on will play downfall on you. And once you have committed to this plan the Allied players will know becouse of your fleet builds and act according.

[coregames]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Not surprisingly, I get confused every time I think about the Balkan political rules.

A popular option discussed on the yahoo list and apparently used to great success in tournaments over the last few years is for Germany to conquer Yugoslavia very early. By preventing the appearance of '40 reserves, such an attack can more easily succeed quickly (before the end of '39), leaving the troops plenty of time to be back for Belgium and the Netherlands before campaign season '40. This has a high probability of resolving the Balkans in their favor. The key is alignment of Rumania from the start (being at war with Yugo allows this) as well as control of Bulgaria to keep it out of Russian hands (also important for any attempt at Istanbul). Note that if Russia is set up at the start for war against Rumania, this may require a DoW on Yugo during the second Axis impulse of the game. If Russia is not prepared for an early Rumanian war, Germany can wait till early Nov/Dec and use reorganized troops from Poland to help.

I don't know anything about AI programming, or how to phrase this in the bulleted form Patrice is using. I do hope it helps Steve grok the Balkan political situation.

[coregames]

ORIGINAL: Graf Zeppelin
I take gibraltar through Spain, and with Italian help.

Gibralter via Spain is a tough task if the CW commits heavily to resist it. Such a move towards Gibralter can succeed, but most likely will leave Spain unconquered. We tried taking Gibralter this way and failed, but won the game partially because the CW was so embroiled in Spain that we easily took Suez and all of North Africa. A dominant Japan was helpful by keeping U.S. support to a minimum.

On the yahoo list, many seem to think the best alternative is to simply avoid Spain and 'human wave' Gibralter with low-odds invasions. This does not require collapsing Vichy right away. Any attrition early in a turn will make taking the rock much easier on subsequent impulses. HQ reorganization of transports is the key, as is keeping Italy's fleet in control of the Western Med with German air support. If the Axis can be in position, a well-timed DoW on Spain can help, not by slogging through european Spain, but by taking Er Rif to assist with marines. Being in Morroco also helps by giving Axis aircraft access to the Atlantic, threatening to cut Gibralter's supply.

Just some thoughts, maybe too complex for the AIO to worry about.

[trees]

I like the attack Yugo strategy on impulse 3 for the Germans, the economics are good, and without Bessarabia the Russians can't get the Odessa factory out when Barbarossa starts. I noticed a flip-side recently ... it makes 'stuffing the border' ridiculously easy for the Russians if the Germans align Rumania. Russia can already shut down a summer 1941 Barbarossa if they so choose by building efficiently and not leaving anything in the Pacific, but with an active Rumania on the border their garrison points can build up just to the southwest of Kiev where it is far easier to run for it in late 41 than it is when the army has to move up to the Lvov area to do that.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

All these ideas are very helpful. And, no, they are not too detailed.

In fact I could use more details (especially timing) on the subsequent political actions in the Balkans by Germay after he/she defeats Yugoslavia in 39. And, more details on the best USSR (and CW?) response to those actions by Germany/Italy in the Balkans.

-----

I assume the actual attack on Gibraltar doesn't occur until after France has fallen, since Italy doesn't want to have anything at all to do with the French fleet.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Oh, and what about Malta? Is it simply ignored until Gibraltar falls?

[trees]

In the Balkans you get into cost/benefit analysis with who to align when. Germany already gets Hungary's resource but it might be nice to add their factory to the total. But that hands a resource back to the Russians. But you could use the Hungarian army to help out attacking and garrisoning Yugoslavia. Align Rumania and you cut off an oil to a possibly still neutral Italy. Align Rumania in 1939 and you don't get their HQ-I for free, but the Russians then can't demand Bessarabia. If you don't align Rumania the French might get a BP or two out of the Yugoslavian economy while the Germans approach from the north. Other people like to simply conquer Hungary and use the entire Rumanian force pool in Russia, though the Russians can crimp this by never demanding Bessarabia. Still other folks like to align Yugoslavia by taking Greece first; an extra HQ-I and winterized MTN unit is nice to have, and gives the Duce an extra homebase when he needs one later on.

I think it worthwhile to commit some Stukas, paratroopers, Marines, NAVs, and the few sorta long-range fighters available to a campaign for a defended Malta. (As the CW I send at least one white-print unit there). But that could cut into efforts to break the Nazi-Soviet pact. If the Axis is aiming for Gibraltar there might not be much on Malta, that might be a bigger question for the CW AI. But if you don't take Malta you might eventually see Gort, the Royal Engineers, and five airplanes based there. Malta also makes a nice base for the Italian Navy, but not so much for the Royal Navy. This same algebra extends to who controls French North Africa...

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Oh, and what about Malta? Is it simply ignored until Gibraltar falls?

Well, in my opinion, Malta is critical for the Allies to have, when they want to invade Italy.
For the Axis, the importance is much lower, so they can try to take it if it is weakly defended, but it is not worth a major assault.
Except when the balance of forces is shifting in the Med, it can be valuable to try to conquer it, to delay the Allies offensive over Italy.

If the Axis is in a Gib + Med Strategy, it is obvious that Malta is secondary, really secondary, and will be conquered easily whatever its defenses, when the Med will be closed.

If the Axis is in a Barb Strategy, I'd revert to what I wrote at the beginning : Take it if there is an opportunity, but not gear a full scale offensive just for it. Defending strongly Sardinia is also a good Italia offensive brake, and the Axis should focus on that rather than try to conquer Malta.
So, the Axis need to be able to take advantage of a weakness in the CW defense (both corps being face down due to arriving here for example).

When the Axis is on a Barb Strategy, as the Axis I view the Med theater as a tree falling, when a woodcutter is working to cut it. That is, you know it will fall, whatever you do, you know it, the only thing you can do is delay it, and the more you delay it, the less impact its fall will have on you.

For me, the Axis (in a Barb strategy) need to delay the allies in the Med. If you manage to delay the fall of Italy to 1944, it is a really good thing. If you manage to delay it untill late 44, it is nearly a winner. The longer Italy is on its legs, the longer the German has his arms free to bash on the Russians, or the Wallies if they invade.

Delaying them is quite easy. Each impulse gained is a victory. This may be hampering their naval rebases by leaving SUBs at sea in the return to base phase, so that their offensive deployment may get screwed, keeping key places like the southern Sardinian city a long time, having Malta, making them pay for evacuating you from N Africa, less defending the spots in Italy where you would prefer them to land (Bari area seems the best, from the Axis point of view, because it is far from everything critical)...

[trees]

Patrice's post touches on a basic Axis style question ... you can set the crop to the horses early on in an attempt to open up a big lead on the Allies, or you can pace yourself for the long haul.

[Froonp]

set the crop to the horses early on

[&:] [&:] [&:] What does this mean ?

[Arron69]

On a close Med strategy, Malta can be a very good base of operation for the Axis. It controls 3 sea zones, and a large stike fleet here can dominate the med, Same goes for the Allies. Hence Malta is VERY important in my opion. Just not in a sealion Strategy, to costly for what you get in return.

[coregames]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I assume the actual attack on Gibraltar doesn't occur until after France has fallen, since Italy doesn't want to have anything at all to do with the French fleet.

If the Germans are helping maintain naval air superiority in the Western Med, this will lessen losses inflicted by the French and British fleets. Even if the bulk of the Italian fleet is sunk, and Gibralter taken as a result, I would deem that worth it, since no other hex in the game is as critical for both sides during most of the game.

And yes, Malta should be targeted if vulnerable, but not at the cost of taking your eye off the ball. Of the two, Gibralter is by far the more important.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

set the crop to the horses early on

[&:] [&:] [&:] What does this mean ?

A riding crop is what jockeys carry - a form of a whip.

To set the crop to the horses means to whip them - though not necessarily viciously, but with determination.

In the context it was used, the idea is for the Axis to go for immediate territorial gains without regard to US Entry.

[coregames]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
...I could use more details (especially timing) on the subsequent political actions in the Balkans by Germay after he/she defeats Yugoslavia in 39. And, more details on the best USSR (and CW?) response to those actions by Germany/Italy in the Balkans.

If the CW is given a chance, they can align Yugo by supporting Greece, so the afore-mentioned strategy prevents this. The timing, if the DoW comes on impulse 3, is an immediate alignment of Rumania that same impulse, preventing the Bessarabian claim from ever being made. After Yugo falls, those forces must make haste back to the French theatre. Fortunately, fast units can probably make this journey with land moves by the end of Jan/Feb, and slower units can be railed.

Subsequent aligment of Axis minors can be more a matter of taste and of stratetic goals, but chances are if the Russians are set up for attacking Rumania, Finland and/or Persia will be given a reprieve.

The only possible drawback is it may mean a slight delay on capturing the low countries, although Denmark is still a must at the first clear weather opportunity. This delay doesn't really hurt much though, since the campaign season is when festivities in France begin in earnest anyway -- there is plenty of time for storming Ne and Be before the end of Mar/Apr.

Personally, I would never adopt a traditional approach. I would either opt for the early Yugo, or the slow Poland. The latter is when Germany tries to make early inroads in the low countries and France at the cost of under-commitment to Poland, aiming to use undisrupted reserves in Nov/Dec to hit the Poles, perhaps not conquering them till early '40. This strategy is especially useful if driving through Spain towards Gibralter is your goal; the earlier you can get about this, the less chance the Americans will come into the war before you can succeed.