Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel

Post descriptions of your brilliant successes and unfortunate demises.

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Local Yokel
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Next comes a composite of the aero engine production graphs generated in Decoder.

Amongst other things these show the effect of the production switchover so that the next generation Adv Mitsubishi (Nissan) and Adv Nakajima (Toyoda) engines can be manufactured. This was a process started in about September 1942, with the emphasis being on converting Mitsubishi factories to Adv Mitsubishi in good time before the latter began to produce. The comparatively high demand for Nakajima engines still continues, but it has been possible to reduce original Mitsubishi production capability to two 80-capacity factories, one of which is switched off.

In fact, the demand for Mitsubishi engines declined sufficiently for some of them to be converted to Adv Nakajima, even though this engine doesn't begin production until August '43. Currently the total of Adv Nakajima (Toyoda) factories stands at 580, of which 87 are still repairing. Bearing in mind the copious quantities of these engines that will be required for such aircraft as the Type 4 Hayate, this is still well short of the total required for a respectable production burst. However, there's still six months available in which get that extra capacity ready. I suspect some of it will have to come from conversions of existing Nakajima factories as demand for that engine gradually declines, but this will partly depend upon how much airframe attrition erodes the replacement aircraft pool.

The need for Kawasaki engines is relatively modest, and there's a sufficiently healthy pool of these to permit its gradual run-down, at the rate of 30 engines per month approximately. There's still one 40-capacity factory churning these out.

The last graph in the set is fairly unremarkable but shows how a decent complement of Adv Mitsubishi/Nissan factories has made possible stockpiling of more than 600 engines over 2 months. Four weeks to go before J2M Raiden production begins!

The Aichi graph shows how a stock of these were gradually accumulated during 1942 in readiness for a big production surge as soon as the D4Y began to be made. The rapid drop-off in pooled Aichi engines was expected and planned for, the object being to get the carrier units re-equipped rapidly, following which D4Y production could be scaled back to a level at which demand for new engines was no longer seriously outstripping their production.

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Getting away from production matters, here is the intelligence summary as at the end of January 1943.

For once the Japanese 'outbuilt' the Allies in terms of base expansion points, given that no bases changed hands. Mainly this was due to the extra 20 VP's credited when the airfields at Syonan-to (Singapore [:'(]) expanded to level 9. Doubtless the Allied engineers have in reality been beavering away more effectively than the Japanese.

Although Japanese aircraft losses have remained lower than Allied, the difference in loss rates is diminishing. Surprisingly, in A2A losses the Allies lost about 220 during the course of the month against the Japanese 115, so there's been no great jump in Allied pilot prowess. I haven't checked but think the preponderant source of Japanese losses must have been operational.

Japanese army losses for the month show a somewhat larger than usual increase, probably due to the eventual destruction by Chinese cavalry of the Japanese armoured regiment that became isolated SW of Sian. They were a long time a-dying. The Allies suffered reduced ground force losses during the month, but there's 80000-90000 Chinese troops pocketed at Honan, and I'm fairly confident of forcing their surrender during the course of February.

The destruction of the ANZAC cruisers off Norfolk made it a good month at sea for Japan. In return she lost two submarines, two small MSW's, one seaplane tender and two merchant ships. Coincidentally one of these happens to have been Buyo Maru, the subject of Brady's recent 'Name this AE'.

So, nothing too cataclysmic yet for the Japanese cause. All that may be well be about to change.

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Captain Cruft »

What a marvellous AAR! I have only skimmed it, but still ... Great results too IMHO. Your "line in the sand" is about what I would go for, and achieved at relatively low cost.

A couple of "tips", if I may be so bold:

1) You could probably shut down all of your industry for several months if not a couple of years (looking at HI and engines particularly). Alternatively, spend some of the surplus on trying to bring nearer some things that will be useful when the tide turns e.g R&D on competitive aircraft or building some of those expensive but useful late-war warships.
2) Use AKs to distribute fuel and save TKs and AOs for moving oil. You shouldn't really need AOs for any replenishment TFs once on the defensive.
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Thanks, Captain Cruft - good to see another contributor!

I am certainly hoping to scale down HI output once the pool passes 1M points, if only to restrain the rate at which resources are being consumed. As it is, production in metropolitan Japan is increasingly running on a 'just in time' basis (currently 13 days in hand) just because of the dearth of resources ready to ship home from the South. Problem is, you have to keep up heavy industry output in order to generate required supply levels. It would be good if supply was treated as an item of production that could be controlled in the same way as aircraft, armaments, etc.

I'm still maintaining a production spreadsheet on which I note changes made to the factories. I see that on 2 Jan 43 I switched the H6K2L factory at Osaka to R&D of the Ki-84 Hayate. This started as a size 4 factory which I doubled in size on 13 Jan. A month has passed but not one of these factories has repaired, yet the size 300 Ki-84 factory at Gunma has been steadily repairing at the rate of about one per day. Something strange about this, but I'm with you 100% about accelerating introduction of this machine in particular if it can be done. The JNAF should remain competitive with its Raiden and Shiden fighters, but by 1944 the Type 2 Shoki and the Type 3 Hien leave the JAAF distinctly outclassed.

I also have 2 Unryu's under accelerated construction, but have doubts as to the wisdom of this. When I get the chance, I may well accelerate the Matsu's and Tachibana's. There doesn't seem to be a shortage in the number of ships already assigned to the Grand Escort Command, but these war production destroyers could provide a number of dedicated ASW 'pouncing' groups that would help a lot once the anti-commerce submarine campaign gets into its stride.

Actually, I'm already using all the Shiretoko oilers as fuel transports. With their 14kt speed they can't cut it as fleet oilers like the big 20kt Shinkoku Maru's. And despite its comparative inefficiency, I've made my first venture into loading AK's with fuel too.

The need for a big train of oilers certainly diminishes as the perimeter contracts, but I'm probably more keen on keeping bunkers topped off than even Frank Jack Fletcher, particularly in the carrier forces. For this reason I keep a number of the Shinkoku's filled and ready to go at a moment's notice. At this stage Kido Butai is still competitive, but I think must always be able to move from concealment into an attack position at full speed and with maximum ops points. If bunker levels in the screen have become so depleted that they must take a draught from the big ships at the wrong moment it can spoil your whole day.
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

On the subject of resources, I don't understand what is happening in this game, and would apreciate any insights people can offer.

If you look at my posts showing the Tracker WitP economics chart, you'll see that, as at 31 Jan 43, my resource centres were churning out around 21120 points. These can be consumed by manpower centres (X 10 per manpower centre) and by heavy industry. Currently I have 13051 HI factories (a few aren't producing at Hankow due to proximity of enemy units), and 766 manpower centres. Assuming these are all efficiently consuming resource points, the daily draw on resources should be about 20711. This implies that there should be a daily surplus of about 409 resource points remaining. However, what is actually happening is that the resource point stockpile is declining, usually by more than 1000 points per day. Difficult to be precise about the rate of decline, because 'resources on land' totals will get skewed by the effect of loading, shipping and unloading resources.

I accept there may be an element of wastage, particularly where resources are being shipped around Japan from their port of landing, but the figures implya daily wastage rate in excess of a minmum of 5%, frequently substantially more. Can it really be that great a wastage rate?

If, at any given HI factory, one resource point is expended per HI point produced plus one resource point per supply point produced, that would imply a daily resource expenditure of about 33760 against 21120 produced. I don't think that can be the case because the daily rate of decline would then be about 12500.

What am I missing in this analysis?
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by n01487477 »

ORIGINAL: Local Yokel
I'm still maintaining a production spreadsheet on which I note changes made to the factories. I see that on 2 Jan 43 I switched the H6K2L factory at Osaka to R&D of the Ki-84 Hayate. This started as a size 4 factory which I doubled in size on 13 Jan. A month has passed but not one of these factories has repaired, yet the size 300 Ki-84 factory at Gunma has been steadily repairing at the rate of about one per day. Something strange about this, but I'm with you 100% about accelerating introduction of this machine in particular if it can be done. The JNAF should remain competitive with its Raiden and Shiden fighters, but by 1944 the Type 2 Shoki and the Type 3 Hien leave the JAAF distinctly outclassed.

I think Uamaga suggested that factories of smaller sizes take longer to repair (when doing R&D), whereas larger factories seem to repair faster... I have also noted the same thing in my game.
If, at any given HI factory, one resource point is expended per HI point produced plus one resource point per supply point produced, that would imply a daily resource expenditure of about 33760 against 21120 produced. I don't think that can be the case because the daily rate of decline would then be about 12500.

Nope a resource point is not expended per supply point - a res Cntr gives 1.25 Resources and 1 supply. 20711 resources are being expended. Now I'm still not happy with the chart as is as it doesn't fully check what is producing or not and I will try to fix this & the global list with shipping figures too ... but the resource tab & Report tab shows the totals correct- I believe.

As for the decline - I did read something in the must read threads about wastage tm.asp?m=1349415 but it would be nice to get to the bottom of what is going on here.

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Captain Cruft »

IIRC you can lose up to 20% of oil or resources when they move by rail. It's in the manual somewhere.

In CHS you have gazillions of AKs. The way I do it is to have a large number of these (the slower and smaller capacity ones) continually sending out fuel from Tokyo and Osaka (also Hiroshima, Okayama and Nagoya) to the various "hub" bases around the map. As a result I am never short of fuel near the front line, though to be fair I have never gotten beyond 1942.

It was mostly the Mitsubishi and Nakajima engines I thought could be halted. You've got enough in the pool to see you through for at least six months at a guess. To be honest I tend to switch an engine off when the pool is over 200 and I ignore the "needed" value. You can always turn it back on again :)

The ships I like to accelerate (and you have some capacity there) are the Agano class CLs and the destroyers with the 9,800 endurance. These are my preferred escorts for the CV taskforces.
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Interesting responses - thanks to you both.

I recalled having read that thread about shrinkage when I raised the declining resources issue, but took another look. I also looked for something in the manual to confirm the rate of loss going as high as 20% but couldn't find it. Suspect you may both have been thinking of VSWG's tests.

He gives the formula for shrinkage as Supply Path Value divided by 5. Let's take a fairly extreme case in Japan, which is where shrinkage effects will be hardest just because this is where most resources get shipped. It's 9 hexes from Sasebo to Tokyo (not much need of resources further up Honshu), so at 2 per hex for rail movement of resources between these cities the SPV is 18. Divide that by 5 you get a near worst case shrinkage factor of 3.6%. If applied to the whole of the daily output of 21120 resource points that implies shrinkage losses of 760 resource points: simply not enough to account for the decline I'm seeing. I do find it hard to see a basis for shrinkage/transit losses going as high as Captain Cruft's figure of 20%.

Though I find it hard to believe, because I can't square it with my figures, the manual may be suggesting that both the heavy industry points and the supply points generated by heavy industry come at the price of resource expenditure - see section 13.2.2:

'... each heavy industry point produces a supply point and 1.33 fuel points that are added to the base, at the cost of 1 resource and 1 oil point.'

and:

'In addition, heavy industry points equal to the number of heavy industry factories are added to the heavy industry pool. Resources equal to the heavy industry points are expended and oil equal to two times the heavy industry points are expended.'

Actually the manual is a bit ambiguous here, and could just be plain wrong. But my conclusion remains the same: something is causing me a loss of resources not readily explained by the factors discussed above.

On other points:

Yes, a pool of 3000+ Mitsubishi's is probably over the top, even though I have just one factory producing. Think it's also time to start switching Nakajima to Adv Nakajima.

You are right about the plethora of small AK's. I tend to use the small ones in high risk areas where I won't be hurt if they get culled. The big ones I use for efficient lifting between the SRA and the HI.

Taiho excepted, my policy is to accelerate warships only whilst I can do so on the cheap. Once the cost goes up to 3 X durability I switch the accelerated ships back to normal construction rate. Applying this, the only ships I can currently accelerate other than carriers are 3 Etorofu class kaibokan, 3 Yugumo's and CL Sakawa. I'd gladly accelerate the 9800 endurance Akizuki's if I could, but they're all in blueprint stage at present.[:(]
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Captain Cruft »

As far as I know oil and resources move exactly like supply, over road and trail too and in unpredictable directions. That may perhaps account for the losses.
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

You may well be right, as I'm seeing some quite strange flows of resources, especially in China, where substantial resource stocks have appeared at Wenchow. If resources do move like supply, losses due to movement within metro Japan should be minimal in view of the excellent railway infrastructure.

I'll take this opportunity to report a few other developments.

I attained my target of 1M HI points in the pool on 6 Feb 1943. I'm now engaged in a juggling exercise with my HI factories, shutting numbers of them down in order to arrest the rate of resource consumption. A big resource convoy from the south just docked at Osaka, which was just as well because Japan was down to 10 days of reserve resources. The continuing problem is to find a level of HI activity that conserves resources whilst still generating sufficient supply.

Looking round the active theatres, I see there's seven fresh units moving north from Alice Springs. They include 6th Aus Cav Bde and 1st Aus Motor Bde. Destruction of a complete division outside Daly Waters in December '42 seems not to have deterred the Allies from a push in Northern Territory. I can live with that: he's got 3 bases with level 9 forts to overcome before he can dabble his toes in the Laut Timor.

At Myitkyina we seem to be stalemated. His initial onrush brought the forts down a level to 5, apparently at a heavy cost to him in engineers. The forts have gone back up and now stand at level 7. He has a modest advantage in numbers of infantry, tanks and artillery, but I think he's suffering the debilitating effect of supply having to come down from Ledo. He bombards me every day, so there's a steady drain in Japanese casualties, making it necessary for me to rotate units back to Rangoon for R&R.

He's well ashore in New Caledonia, with 37th US ID and at least two RCT's. The island will return to Allied control in the near future: I can't see 85th Naval Garrison Unit holding out for long, as the fortress levels start to drop away in Noumea. An interesting exchange of emails indicated that, but for an error in loading his assault forces, he had planned to reach Noumea at about the same time as I was evacuating the S Seas Det. That would have made for a violent carrier clash, and any advantage in numbers I might have enjoyed would have been limited. I'm happy to have picked off the ANZAC cruisers and got my boys out in the nick of time. I think we are shaping up for major fireworks somewhere in the Solomon chain, with eastern New Guinea an alternative venue. Instead, maybe he'll try for an initial lodgement in the Louisiades.

China is OK for me. There's a stand-off at Liuchow, where we both have big commitments of troops - mine a large part of the IJA artillery park. Though I'd like to pick this base off as a significant communications junction I am not keen to do so by frontal assault, so I may wait to see whether he's forced to react at Liuchow to problems elsewhere in his defence of China. Or I may try to lure him out of position through some brilliant manouevre I'm still having some difficulty in devising.

Things are much more encouraging at Honan, where his fortifications are being progressively reduced. A feint in the direction of Sian up the right bank of the Hwang Ho has already prompted him to withdraw from contact with my forces at Sinyang in the direction of Nanyang, which is already more or less isolated. When Honan falls to the Japanese it should give me opportunities either in the big bend of the river at Yenan, or in the vicinity of Sinyang/Hankow and west towards Ichang. The Lanchester effect is now starting to make itself felt at Honan, and I think it's only a matter of time.
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Mynok »


I don't believe HI creates fuel unless in a port hex.
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Yes, that's always been my understanding too. The biggest effects of this are probably in Burma where you have several oil-producing bases inland that can only move their output down to the coast. I get what I can out of Burma, but retrieving its oil is a low priority compared with the problem of getting the oil glut north from Palembang.

In any case, I'm not suffering from any fuel shortages yet, although getting it where it's needed presents some difficulties. The real problem lies in the fact that HI is gobbling up resources faster than they are being generated. Plenty of bottoms available to get them back to Japan, but I'm scratching around for bases having enough resources accumulated to justify running a convoy to get 'em home.

And, as I've indicated, turning off HI to save resources simply shifts you into a different problem area: that of getting enough supply generated.
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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: January 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

For a variety of reasons our game has been proceeding at a sedate pace, but the end of February 1943 has now been reached, so I'll post some details of how the month turned out. Probably the most significant event, though one that was fully expected, was the Japanese loss of Noumea in the middle of the month. Well, of course, that was a 'brilliantly conducted adjustment of our perimeter', but no use crying over spilt milk, I'll console myself instead with an account of where things went better for Japan.

Objective Honan

The river variously known as the Hatan Gol, the Hwang Ho or the Yellow River is well named “China’s Sorrow”. Whereas most rivers’ highest concentration of suspended load by weight is of the order of 10%, this extraordinary waterway’s concentration can run as high as 40%, making it one of the muddiest rivers in the world. Emerging onto the North China coastal plain it forms what amounts to an elevated delta stretching from Peiping to Shanghai. In times of flood the river bed fills rapidly with suspended sediment, with consequent overtopping of the banks leading to massive loss of life. Seven million were drowned in the destructive floods of 1332, and more recently man, in the shape of Chiang Kai-shek, has made his own contribution to the misery: dynamiting the levees in 1938 failed to stop the Japanese advance but succeeded in causing the deaths of a million Chinese directly, with perhaps another eleven million fatalities resulting from the ensuing famine and disease.

Against this background, the Chinese losses stemming from the capture of Honan in February 1943 assume a degree of insignificance, yet they are welcomed by the propagandists of Nippon as a welcome distraction from the loss a few days earlier of Noumea, a far away bastion in the South Seas.

Following elimination of the pocketed Chinese attackers at Kaifeng in December 1942, Japan’s North China Area Army put into operation its plan to exploit this defensive success. 17 Mixed Bde was ordered to advance west in the direction of Nanyang from Kaifeng, whilst troops prepared for the siege of Honan, a hundred miles up river. Simultaneously, forces initially headed by the armour of 13 Tank Rgt crossed the Hwang Ho to the north of Honan, establishing contact with 17 Mixed on 11 January 1943 and thus closing the ring around the city’s defenders. Evidently the move was not anticipated, for the Japanese encountered no opposition as they emerged from the river on the Honan side.

Thereafter the main body of North China Army marched rapidly to Honan, conducting its first exploratory bombardment of the defenders on 23 January, and its first formal attack two days later:

Ground combat at Honan

Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 133932 troops, 671 guns, 252 vehicles, Assault Value = 2954
Defending force 68661 troops, 305 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 1635
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 8
Japanese max assault: 2927 - adjusted assault: 2734
Allied max defense: 1670 - adjusted defense: 2775
Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 8)

Japanese ground losses:
2611 casualties reported
Guns lost 30
Vehicles lost 2

Allied ground losses:
1065 casualties reported
Guns lost 24
Vehicles lost 2


The siege lasted some twenty-four days, the final assault being undertaken on 18 February:

Ground combat at Honan

Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 126635 troops, 500 guns, 240 vehicles, Assault Value = 2211
Defending force 53544 troops, 132 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1418
Japanese max assault: 2190 - adjusted assault: 2931
Allied max defense: 1420 - adjusted defense: 606
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Honan base !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights
Allied aircraft losses
P-66 Vanguard: 1 destroyed

Japanese ground losses:
2650 casualties reported
Guns lost 16
Vehicles lost 1

Allied ground losses:
76033 casualties reported
Guns lost 93


Knowing that there was no escape for the defenders, the Japanese throughout proceeded on a deliberate basis, launching attacks at intervals of three to four days once the worst of the previous attack’s disruptive effects had dissipated. Whilst the independent brigades taking part suffered most, with about 30% of their infantry rendered hors de combat, the divisional-sized units suffered less severely. 15 Infantry Div probably suffered worst than most, yet never lost more than 80% of its combat power. All participants reaped handsome increases in experience.

Another minor episode had been added to the story of China’s Sorrow. And with Honan subdued, North China Army now cast about for a fresh objective…

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: February 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Here is the usual image showing the end-of-month state of the economy and aircraft production.

The switchover of aero engine production has gone steadily ahead with the first conversion of a Nakajima factory of significant size to Toyoda/Adv Nakajima. For this I selected the smaller of the two large Nakajima factories at Tokyo, leaving the 180-size factory to maintain production of the original engine. This should mean that by the start of June 1943 I shall have 700 Adv Nakajima factories ready to go, with further conversions probably deferred until the need for the early version Nakajima diminishes as the aircraft that mount it are supplanted by production of later models.

Of the total of 144 J2M Raiden production points only one remains to be repaired, with production of this type starting one day away on 1 March. It's noteworthy that the Allied heavies are coming in over Guadalcanal and Moresby at 32000 feet, above the ceiling of the Reisen defenders, so that only a chutai of Toryu can reach them. With the conversion of some A6M3 units to the Raiden as sufficient aircraft become available, I shall at last have an interceptor that can both reach them and have the armament to knock some down.

All carrier-borne divebomber units have now re-equipped with the Suisei, and the type is also being rolled out to the land-based units. B6N Tenzan production began at the start of the month, and has gone ahead fast enough for me to be able to re-equip the Kanko-tai of Akagi, Kaga, Soryu and Shokaku (the later under refit in Japan). Enough of the new model are to hand to convert Zuikaku's torpedo bomber unit, with Hiryu and the light carriers following as soon as possible thereafter.

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: February 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Next is the Tracker view of the economy.

Having reached the initial target for the reserve of HI points, I found that a healthy surplus of them was still being generated, so I have re-activated a number of dormant merchant shipyards to soak up some of the excess. Given the pressing need for them, tanker production has never been stopped, but all AK and AP building was on hold whilst the HI reserve grew. Now I have re-started a number of the big (5000 capacity) AK's, the idea being that I get them to within a day or so of completion before halting them again. That way I plan to be able to bring in additional capacity to lift resources at a moment's notice if/when sinkings make this necessary.

Currently I am still keeping up a high level of vehicle production, as this all gets converted into a healthy reserve of Type 3 Chi Nu tanks at approximately 10 day intervals. This means that at present there is a reserve on the pool of 175 of these AFV's.

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: February 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Now for a composite image showing the last 6 months or so on three of the Decoder graphs: HI production, Resource generation and reserves, and Victory Points.

The VP graph is of some interest as it shows the considerable impact of Noumea's loss, and subsequent facilities expansion (the last big downspike). Just by increasing the port size level from 3 to 4 the Allies have equalled the effect of seven Chinese corps' surrender at Honan - 'Dig for Victory,' indeed!

The other two graphs are intended to illustrate the attempts I am making to arrest the long term decline in resource stockholdings by shutting down HI factories. The big leap in net daily resource gains occurred as a result of stopping 2290 points' worth of HI generation. The really big HI producers at Tokyo and Osaka carried on as before, and their output alone is so great that the drop in HI point generation resulting from the stoppage of most of the remaining HI in Japan is insignificant.

The real problem lies not so much in the decline of resources but rather the loss of vital supply generation that comes partly with HI production. When I saw that resource reserves were again starting to climb I began a process of re-starting halted HI plants, looking for a 'sweet spot' where resource reserves remain constant or grow at a modest rate, whilst supply generation remains acceptably high. I'm far from sure that these conflicting objectives can be reconciled, so I may well have to settle for the least worst compromise. I also suspect that the growth of Japanese forces may have reached or be close to a tipping point at which demand for supply outsrips the economy's capacity to meet it. This is not a crisis of distribution - there are plenty of ships to get the required supply to the Empire's farthest reaches - but exclusively one of correctly manipulating the few controls available to affect the rate at which supply is produced.

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: February 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Next is an extract from Tracker showing both sides' shipping losses for the month.

The Japanese suffered two sinkings only, one of which was my one and only destroyer-escort, which went down to one of the by now increasingly effective Mk 14 torpedoes fired by Sculpin 60 miles west of the Russells. The other loss was one of the scarce minelayer submarines, surprised in the Bay of Bengal by a SAG 360 miles SW of Colombo. What was it doing there?

Two points strike me about the Allied losses for the month.

First, the few I-boats operating in the open ocean against Allied supply lines are still doing OK against such merchantmen as they encounter. None of the victims appears to have formed part of an escorted convoy.

Second, it has been an exceptional month for Japanese anti-submarine successes, with half of the enemy boats lost being accounted for by mines. This is a clear reflection of the two sides' very different tactics for submarine employment. My policy has been to deploy small patrol lines athwart predicted shipping routes at maximum distance from the bases of maritime surveillance aircraft. My opponent remains wedded to frequent submarine incursions into base hexes, but he's gradually learning that the spread of Japanese minelaying activity is making this costly. Rather than squatting in a base hex, he currently has two boats stationed opposite both the Kii Suido and the Bungo Suido - and I'm quite happy for them to remain there achieving nothing until I am ready to suppress them with ASW groups during the passage of a potential target group.

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: February 1943

Post by Local Yokel »

Bringing up the rear, the Intelligence Summary screen for the end of February 1943.

There seems to have been a slackening in the Allied air effort over Burma, for which I cannot account. Can it be that he has insufficient supplies shipped in to sustain an intensive bombing campaign against my troops? The attacks are almost all CAS against my troops at Myitkyina and the banks of the Chindwin NE of Mandalay - this has left my engineers untroubled in their fortification activities and has meant that a further deliberate attack against Myitkyina during the month stalled badly against increased fortification levels.

I'm now seeing Spitfire V's over Burma, and F4U's have put in an appearance over N Australia, but fighter versus fighter encounters witht these have been almost non-existent, as I am husbanding my air forces and letting him expend his effort against well dug-in ground units.

From the Allied perspective the big event was the re-capture of Noumea. I retaliated by taking a couple of dot bases that remained on the south coast of New Guinea.[:D] I succeeded in extracting by Navy transport flying boat a cadre of the principal Noumea defending unit, 86 Naval Guard. They've been passed back up the line as far as Saipan on their trip to Japan to rebuild, but already received their first replacements on arrival in the Marianas.

Honan produced another good haul of Allied ground force losses, and the siege of the city was conducted with sufficient economy to keep casualties in this operation below 50 points' worth (there's always a steady dribble of Japanese losses elsewhere due to daily bombings and bombardments).

In all, not a bad month for Japan. Sounding somewhat frustrated, my opponent enquired in an email whether I'd like to suggest a place where my defences are weak. What could I do but tell him that Truk looks nice at this time of year?

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: February 1943

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Battle beneath the Pole Star - Background

When R Adm Kajioka Sadamichi’s Attu Occupation Force seized the westernmost island in the Aleutian chain on 24 January 1942, Japan’s modest territorial ambitions in this region were accomplished. Before the war’s outbreak her strategists had concluded that Attu must be denied as a base from which her enemies’ long-range bombers might strike at the Home Islands, given Attu’s surprising potential for airfield expansion. The military saw no merit in seizure of other islands lying further east in the chain, predicting that these would be easily bypassed and any garrison upon them left to wither. Attu was different: its mountainous territory lent itself to economical defence, and any attempt to bypass it involved a lunge into the Chishimas or Karafuto – which Japan would have no alternative but to contest with all means at her disposal. In that event Attu might also serve a useful purpose as a threat to the flank of any such Allied offensive.

Throughout 1942 Attu’s defences and airstrips proliferated accordingly and its garrison was built up. But the enhancement of its defensive capabilities came at the price of a mounting supply bill, and the basing of substantial Allied air groups first on Adak and later Amchitka posed a growing threat to Japanese ability to re-supply the fortress. The fogs and storms of winter provided some cover for modest supply runs, but with the arrival of marginally better weather in March 1943 the Japanese had resolved to land a more respectable quantity of stores. To accomplish this they devised an elaborate plan, and assigned to it the codename Matsurika-1-Go: the first in what was expected to be a succession of re-supply efforts.

Sorties by elements of the 13th and, later, the 83rd Reconnaissance Chutais from Attu established that Amchitka was hosting between 60 and 100 Allied fighter aircraft, together with a single group of torpedo bombers, whilst a substantial contingent of medium bombers – mainly B-25’s – were based at Adak. Missions both by the Army’s command reconnaissance aircraft and the Navy’s P/7 Yokosuka detachment of Type 2 flying boats also revealed the near-permanent presence of at least two naval task forces in Adak waters. The core of the Japanese plan consisted of a battleship bombardment of Adak’s airfields intended to diminish the threat of the island’s bombers to supply transports unloading at Attu. However, the Allied naval forces spotted at Adak (and the possible presence also of unobserved groups of torpedo boats) threatened to compromise the bombardment group’s mission. Any delay it suffered by fighting its way past the patrolling naval units might well leave its vessels within range of daytime torpedo strike on the day following the bombardment.

To counter this, the Japanese planned a return to their tactics in operations against Darwin. Once again the bombardment force would be preceded into the area by a sweeping group whose task it was to eliminate the defending warships. In addition, the carriers of Japan’s 2nd Mobile Force would be deployed to the south of the Aleutian chain and provide long range fighter cover over the task groups retiring from Adak.

The participating ships were selected with care. Only Kongo class battleships would have the speed to get out of range of torpedo strike aircraft following the bombardment, but Kongo and Haruna were in the south, whilst Kirishima was dry-docked in Japan to make good previous wear and tear. That left only Hiei and two Takaos as bombardment ships – really not enough, but they would have to do, entrusted to the competent hands of V Adm Hosogaya Boshiro.

For the sweeping force that would precede the bombardment group the Japanese assigned six of their most modern and capable Kageros and Yugumos, all equipped with Mk 2 Mod 2 microwave radars. They would be joined by light cruiser Kiso as flagship when the sweeping group parted company from Yamaguchi’s carriers; until then they would function as an ASW group to cover the throng of larger ships in company. Choice of commander for the sweeping force was obvious: with his wealth of experience of combat in Aleutian waters there could be none better than R Adm Onishi Shinzo.

In the last week of February, with the worst of the northern winter hoped to be nearing its end, the Japanese task forces sortied from Ominato. Transport groups bearing supplies for Attu and Etorofu-bound reinforcements headed up the Chishima chain, whilst the carriers of 2nd Mobile Force, escorted by Hosogaya and Onishi’s gunships, headed ESE towards the empty reaches of the North Pacific, postponing for so long as possible the moment of detection by Allied search aircraft.

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RE: Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel: February 1943

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Battle beneath the Pole Star – the engagement off Adak

The Adak strike forces’ approach is both surreptitious and sedate. Hiei’s captain, Nishida, has impressed on his engineering department the vital necessity of the battleship’s propulsion machinery remaining on the top line: the slightest defect may degrade their ability to outrange a retaliatory air strike when the bombardment’s done. Further, the forces’ advance has to be coordinated with the approach to Attu of the transport groups nearly a thousand miles distant to the east of Paramushiro.

On 4 March Onishi shifts his flag to Kiso as his Sweeping Group and Hosogaya’s screen top off their tanks from Fujita’s oilers for the last time. Now they shift their course northwards, heading, not too directly, towards Adak, and trailed at a distance of 150 miles by Yamaguchi’s carriers who are flying fighter cover above them. During the afternoon of 6 March, at a point some 350 miles south of Adak, Chokai’s air search set detects a prowler to the north. The communications net isn’t sophisticated enough for the covering fighters to be directed towards the contact, and the search aircraft in question is never visually acquired. But there are indications from wireless traffic that the Japanese have been spotted – true enough, as it turns out, though the consequences will not be as expected. Aboard the strike forces tension goes up several notches; it had been the ardent hope of the Japanese that their approach might remain unseen. There will be no turning back now, however: for good or ill they enter the waters around Adak tonight.

Coming in from the south, the strike forces have a choice of four approaches. Little Tanaga Strait is narrow and easily mined and the passes either side of Umak Island too far east for the Japanese taste. They have planned instead for an approach via Adak Strait, leaving Kanaga Island to the west, knowing they should have a minimum of twenty fathoms beneath their keels at the shallowest point and that charts for the Strait reflect a wire dragging sweep conducted ten years earlier. Moreover, they are fortified by the report that the Strait is clear of mines stemming from submarine Ro-65’s reconnaissance one day earlier.

It’s a rough night off Adak as Onishi’s Sweeping Force slips through the Strait and, rounding Cape Adagdak, enters Sitkin Sound – territory familiar to him from his previous penetration aboard Tama. The chop is throwing up a lot of clutter on the A-scopes of the destroyers’ radars, but the watches have been practising hard and presently the rating who is steering Urakaze’s antennae in azimuth is refining his bearing solution for four targets in response to his colleague who is hunched over his oscilloscope and calling the amplitude of the spikes these targets are displaying. The Chu-i supervising the watch passes the contact report to the bridge over the voicepipe and Urakaze’s skipper issues instructions to his gunnery and torpedo officers as the destroyer continues to close silently on the detected enemy. Similar scenes are being played out on the other Japanese destroyers, but not, apparently aboard the Canadian ships who remain blissfully unaware of Onishi’s approach until the moment fire is opened at short range.

In fact, the Sweeping Force has caught an Allied group consisting of four Canadian minesweepers and a US sub-chaser stone cold. This time it is the Japanese who enjoy a radar advantage so complete that the Allied force never gets a shot off. Four of its five vessels are summarily despatched in a welter of shell and torpedo strikes, whilst the fifth, Lockeport, is so hard hit that its attempts to evade are over in a trice. Overhauled rapidly by the Kageros as soon as it is re-acquired, Lockeport is hit by a further six rounds and quickly slips into the depths of the Sound.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 97,38

Japanese Ships
CL Kiso
DD Tamanami
DD Maikaze
DD Isokaze
DD Tokitsukaze
DD Urakaze
DD Hamakaze

Allied Ships
MSW Canso, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
MSW Caraquet, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
MSW Guysborough, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
MSW Lockeport, Shell hits 8, on fire, heavy damage
SC SC-643, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Adak Island at 97,38

Japanese Ships
CL Kiso
DD Tamanami
DD Maikaze
DD Isokaze
DD Tokitsukaze
DD Urakaze
DD Hamakaze

Allied Ships
MSW Lockeport, Shell hits 6, and is sunk


Somewhat to the Japanese’ surprise, Adak is unprotected by torpedo boats.

Of the other Allied task group reported by Attu’s reconnaissance aircraft there is, puzzlingly, no trace.

The Japanese plan has succeeded! Without interference from defending surface units, Hosogaya’s Bombardment Group enters the sound and begins to work over the shore installations. Now, however, the absence of sufficient heavy units makes itself felt, and whilst moderate damage is done to Adak’s harbour facilities, its airfields receive insufficient attention, and only minor damage is done to its bomber complement.

Naval bombardment of Adak Island, at 97,38

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 2 destroyed
PBM Mariner: 1 destroyed
B-26B Marauder: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Chokai
CA Takao
BB Hiei

Allied ground losses:
667 casualties reported
Guns lost 26
Vehicles lost 3

Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 12
Port hits 1
Port fuel hits 2
Port supply hits 6


Four hundred miles to the west, the first of the Japanese transport groups enters Attu's Massacre Bay and commences unloading operations: the underlying purpose for the whole exercise. Meanwhile, their bombardment ammunition expended, Hosogaya’s ships turn away from Adak and commence their southward sprint in the wake of Onishi’s victorious destroyers, straining to be clear of Allied detection and counter-strike by break of day.

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