Dispatches from OKH: Q-Ball (Axis) v. Von Beeanie (SOV)

[Q-Ball]

1/15/42:

Up North was easy, now for the hard part......

Look at the Crimea. I have a fresh Panzer Corps there, with 90+ morale and 90+ Ready status; but they failed to dislodge that 3 CV Cav Corps, with a failed DELIBERATE attack. I did manage to push back a Tank Bde with the other Panzer Corps.

I have learned in the Winter that you need at least the Summer eqivalent of 20-1 in combat power to have any chance of pushing them back. You really just have to run.

I have a very serious decision to make; I still hold Kharkov pretty comfortably, but with this going on in my rear, I may just have to pull everyone back toward the Dnepr line. This is bad. Very bad. If he uses a PARA on the rail line down to the Crimea, I am totally sunk, and can't hope to stop him short of Nikolev.

ORIGINAL: pipewrench

talk about following history,

para drop was done in operation mars on Dorogobuzh in January 42 and was repelled by the germans. Talk about following the text-book, Your facing what the Germans faced so keep your head up, spring is around the corner.

I don't mind the Paras dropped within 4-5 hexes of the front; that is historical for sure. The Russians did a couple of those in the Blizzard, though for a few reasons they didn't go so well....

I am not sure, though, about those RR-cutting drops 12-15 hexes behind the front. Clearly, those are suicidal. That may be OK in game-terms, I am just saying, that if Russian players all learn to do that, then the Winter is going to be even worse for the Germans.

[Blind Sniper]

Good luck Q-Ball and keep it going.

[Oleg Mastruko]

I admire your spirit, both Q-Ball and Pipewrench, commenting from the sidelines.

I've been staunch Sov fanboy till now but I'd be throwing hands in disgust in your place Q, or at least would not be in the mood to post AARs and do jokes on my own expense. Now that's the spirit....

As for the war situation.... I really think this blizzard thing lasts too long, I posted my suggestions about in in the "Winter idea..." thread in the main WITE forum. 4-5 turns of this are OK, but 13 turns just don't make any sense IMO.

[randallw]

A bunch of new para units show up for the Sovs in December; they can't be rebuilt but your opponent has some to use up for suicide drops.

[Blind Sniper]

4-5 turns of this are OK, but 13 turns just don't make any sense IMO.

I don't know about that, but if a fresh Panzer Corps cannot win against a Cav Corps you cannot do anything, especially if the Russian can attack along the whole front.
About CV: don't look it anymore, I see a Russian brigade with starting value of 13 jump to 202. You have to do a right call...

[Pipewrench]

q-ball,

I agree with you completely as with that paradroop option it opens a big can of worms. I know how you feel and I am sure most in the community support your hard effort in posting. Do the best you can but if you think this is lost I personally will still hold you in high regard.

it might be just that the historic luftwaffe airdrops in Jan are not active or even a tinkering with soviet rail as the russians advance might force a slowdown? Who knows and as you get into March you might have a good recovery.

[Q-Ball]

Thanks for the comments. I am playing this out regardless, for posterity if nothing else.

RE: RECOVERY, I am already seeing that my units are not deteriorating so rapidly, which is good, because all through December I was able to keep almost all my Panzers under-cover, but now I have to use them. I don't feel I have a choice.

The German manpower pool is down to 125,000, so we are also finding RIFLES for available men. Before January, units weren't taking full replacements, because they just were not available, even sitting in cities. And most of my front-line cities were full of Panzers.

I can forsee a Wehrmacht bounce-back in terms of strength, but I highly doubt I'll ever sniff the Don River again.

I have attempted to run the winter with the following precepts:

1. Attack in the SNOW, and pull-back to prepared positions.
2. LINEBACKER defense, with 3-4 deep line of lvl-2+ prepared defense positions
3. Liberal units of FORT units to build fortifications, beginning in late Sept. I created 130 total, almost all of which I have by now disbanded (once they built a lvl-2 fort, or the Russkie's got too close)
4. I did not wholesale retreat anywhere, until my fort lines ran out. I figured better to defend forward in prepared positions, rather than run back to un-prepared ones. Is this wrong?
5. Every city/town near the front always had a unit in it. I stashed a Panzer Corps in every city near the front, including Donbas, Kursk, Kharkov, Orel, Bryansk, Vyazma, Rhzev, V-L, Novgorod, Leningrad. All had 1 Panzer Corps (at least).
6. Beginning in December, rotation of units to/from front. I should have started this 2 turns earlier, but you need a good railnet to do this properly. I am there NOW between new builds and lost ground, but in December I was short in a few places.
7. Counterattack weak exploitation units (Tank Bdes). This I have been able to do, but not much.
8. "CONVERT" all empty enemy hexes: I make sure to "FLIP" a hex to mine if it's empty, then get out of it. This makes him spend more MPs just to move into it.

I need to understand if I could have done something differently, or all Germans are screwed vs. a good opponent who husbands his armies, and prepares for winter (all of which Von Beanie did; he carefully built armies in preparation for Winter).

The only thing I can think of is a CHECKERBOARD. Only thing is:
1. The CHECKERBOARD can be flaked to either side; that means you really have to give-up at least 1-hex per turn automatically, IF the Soviets don't push. If they push and get a good retreat result, 2-3 hexes is more like it. A successful attack on units 1 and 3 on a Checkerboard will expose unit #2 in the middle to encirclement. This is another problem.
2. Immediate RETREAT. This would yield 20 hexes, but maybe the Reds outrun supplies. So far I have not see VB have a supply problem.


I would like to see someone use a checkerboard against a good Soviet opponent. So far I haven't seen anyone have a successful Winter defense (by successful, I mean yield less than 6-10 hexes all across the front).

[Klydon]

Yeah, I have been working on the paratroopers as well. Dropping them on a rail line is pretty straight forward. I have an even more potentially brutal use for them that I will likely show here in the near future in a AAR. I am still working on trying to figure out how to come up with enough lift capacity to move the paratrooper although the tactical situation in the game has eclipsed why I would have done that but I will show what I had in mind anyway.

To be honest, looking over this AAR is depressing from the standpoint of game balance. I don't really see anything different that Q-Ball could have tried/done that would have altered what has happen over the winter despite having a brilliant 1941 campaign against a good opponent and I think this sort of highlights that there is an issue with the winter. Right now, this has the makings of a massacre.

I am not a Axis fan by any stretch of the imagination, but what I do want to see in at least some of these AAR's are good games getting into 1942/43 where things are more even and there is some good give and take on both sides. It has not happen yet and shows no signs of happening at this point.

[Tarhunnas]

Excellent AAR, though somewhat depressing... Keep up the good work!

[bevans]

The first winter does seem overly harsh (but 'seem' is the operative word until one sees how well the Wehrmacht recovers by late spring) and very depressing reading for someone who has reached late October in his game. Have any of the Axis AAR players simply made a run for the '54-72 Line' fought the winter out sans debilitating blizzards and launched Barbaossa 2 in the spring of '42? Or is that simply too ahistorical to consider - no matter how hard the designers have worked to make that the most intelligent option?

And thank you very much for the tips, some valuable lessons there.

[Q-Ball]

OKH Dispateches: 1/22/42:

MORE FUN ON THE EASTERN FRONT!

This turn, they had a total of 51 successful attacks; fewer again, because I am pulling off the line rapidly. I expect to lose a few units, though, due to Red Army vice tactics.


RED VICE:
Once you get 4 hexes on a unit, it's in big trouble if you are in general retreat, because it can only move 1 hex. If you start the turn with a unit with 3-hexes adjacent (common), the enemy has only to take one more to basically pin that unit. Von Beanie is doing this now all over the place, as I am forced to pull-back. I would pull back more, but I am forced in many places to maintain contact to keep units alive that aren't yet isolated, but are basically pinned.

This VICE tactic, against a Checkerboard, is very workable. Attacks on either side of a position, plus infiltration between positions, produce that VICE effect. I started to have this happen once I couldn't guard every hex of the front in a LINEBACKER set-up. I just don't have enough units to do that.

It would be nice if we could counterattack and clear units out of there, but no dice; counterattacking in the Blizzard is nearly impossible if it's against anything other than a single Tank Bde, or right up against a city where you have a Panzer Corps parked. Do others have more success in Blizzard counterattacks?

Army Group North:

The Red Army breakout toward Pskov continues. I have some units there now, but these are my last reserves. Supply is really a problem.

Another Para drop cut another section of rail, but I should have RR service restored to AGN next turn, after a 2-turns. I will repair the other line as well, to get back to 2-line redundancy. That RR cutting was VERY effective, and a real problem, though; that was the key that unhinged the whole 16th Army sector.

Without rail service, I am unable to get units back up to strength. I stashed a couple in Novgorod, but I really need to rail some to Leningrad, and swap them with units that are in Leningrad, and in OK shape. I have been rotating the Leningrad garrision for awhile, but I can't do that without a railway.

If things deteriorate further, I am prepared to abandon the connection with the Finns, and allow the Finns plus a German Corps to be locked in Leningrad. There are level-4 forts all along the Neva River, so I think I can hold that position. The "Back Door" is the critical hex.

Army Group Center:
I am attempting to retreat here as fast as I can while still hanging on to a couple units that are pinned. I think I am going to lose a Motorized division, though, plus 2-3 Infantry Divisions. The attackers here are a Shock Army, so I'm really getting hammered constantly. Most divisions are 1-CV only. I am rotating through Smolensk, but that's only 1 city. At least I still have a RR here.

Army Group South:
The Crimea is gettting priority, including a fresh Infantry Corps of 3 Divisions. I hope to contain this breakout short of the Dnepr, and I am counting on Von Beanie not wanting to spread out too much and be exposed when the weather clears. He probably, though, wants to establish a defense line along the Dnepr, which is a problem.

The rest of the front is doing OK; nothing is getting cut-off, and I am giving ground.

The last couple turns, the following cities have fallend:

BRYANSK
KURSK
BELGOROD
STALINO

I will shortly lose Velikye Luki, and Vyazma/Rhzev are long-gone.

I hope to hold Pskov, Novgorod, Smolensk, Dnepropetrovsk, Sumy, Poltava by the end of winter, basically my turn-5 start line.

[Q-Ball]

Von Beanie Comments: Von Beanie wrote a long e-mail on his thoughts on how this is going. A few highlights:
1. He feels the Soviets are too able to launch full-on offensives in the Winter.
2. The Soviets have zero supply problems. He built 50+ RR Bdes early to help dig, and they quickly fill-in any RR gaps. He has plenty of supplies everywhere, including south of Lake Ilmen.
3. He says I'm doing a bit better than his other opponent, JaMian. He had a third opponent who quit after winter.
4. VB admits that in future games, he might not have as much strength in winter due to Factory Evacuation limits. He said he was barely able to keep ahead of me under the old rules pulling out factories. Now, he would be forced to fight forward more. Good to know, I'll be looking at these effects in my other game where I am RUSSIAN.

[ComradeP]

The only thing I can think of is a CHECKERBOARD. Only thing is:
1. The CHECKERBOARD can be flaked to either side; that means you really have to give-up at least 1-hex per turn automatically, IF the Soviets don't push. If they push and get a good retreat result, 2-3 hexes is more like it. A successful attack on units 1 and 3 on a Checkerboard will expose unit #2 in the middle to encirclement. This is another problem.

A hedgehog/heavy checkerboard that moves one hex back each turn is probably very difficult to break for the Soviets. Even with reduced CV, a stack in level 3 forts is too tough for a random collection of Soviets to crack in 1 turn.

You initially tried to fight, holding the line with single divisions. That's just a recipe for disaster as you're now experiencing. The Soviets want to hurt you, so don't let them. Pull back a bit each turn. If most of your stacks only suffer regular attrition damage, he isn't going to break your frontline strength. Remember that trading space for preserving manpower is only possible when you still have reasonably up to strength divisions.

Your forces are currently just running, and you're offering him dozens of easy targets (single divisions) each turn. That has been the major flaw in your defensive plan since the start of the blizzard, and one you seemingly haven't been able to correct.

[Oleg Mastruko]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
Your forces are currently just running, and you're offering him dozens of easy targets (single divisions) each turn. That has been the major flaw in your defensive plan since the start of the blizzard, and one you seemingly haven't been able to correct.

So Germans should plan in advance.... not even to stop and defend (which is already unhistoric enough) but.... to run away?!?

Ain't that just crazy talk?

41-42 in this game is just contrived far too much for my taste. First we have superhuman Germans, then we have super-super-human Russians in winter to compensate (and those superhuman Germans turn into idiots and wussies overnight).

And all that under incredibly simple weather model where every damn hex is blizz for every minute of the three month duration.

There's gotta be better way to model this.

[KenchiSulla]

Is it just me, or is it a bit crazy to be able to screw up rail networks with suicidal para drops?

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
Your forces are currently just running, and you're offering him dozens of easy targets (single divisions) each turn. That has been the major flaw in your defensive plan since the start of the blizzard, and one you seemingly haven't been able to correct.

So Germans should plan in advance.... not even to stop and defend (which is already unhistoric enough) but.... to run away?!?

Ain't that just crazy talk?

41-42 in this game is just contrived far too much for my taste. First we have superhuman Germans, then we have super-super-human Russians in winter to compensate (and those superhuman Germans turn into idiots and wussies overnight).

And all that under incredibly simple weather model where every damn hex is blizz for every minute of the three month duration.

There's gotta be better way to model this.

Ah Oleg, retreating ten miles a week is more like a fighting withdrawal than it is running away. [:)]

[cookie monster]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

Is it just me, or is it a bit crazy to be able to screw up rail networks with suicidal para drops?

Para brigades only convert the hex they land in. So he's damaged one hex. The rail network is not screwed until the troops turn yellow/red under show isolated units etc...

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

Is it just me, or is it a bit crazy to be able to screw up rail networks with suicidal para drops?

Well, I think that suicidal para drops would screw up rail nets, but I think that the real issue here is that the paras act like real combat units once they are on the ground. If the paras were treated like partisans once they land it would still be highly disruptive as well as unbalancing but it would not be anywhere near as ahistorical as this is.

I am reminded of the German Chancellor's remark (von Bulow (sp)?) prior to WW I when asked what he would do if the British would invade the Baltic coast: "I would send the police to arrest them". The trouble here is that you need combat troops and not just police to suppress these para drops. Not a good thing at all.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

The only thing I can think of is a CHECKERBOARD. Only thing is:
1. The CHECKERBOARD can be flaked to either side; that means you really have to give-up at least 1-hex per turn automatically, IF the Soviets don't push. If they push and get a good retreat result, 2-3 hexes is more like it. A successful attack on units 1 and 3 on a Checkerboard will expose unit #2 in the middle to encirclement. This is another problem.

A hedgehog/heavy checkerboard that moves one hex back each turn is probably very difficult to break for the Soviets. Even with reduced CV, a stack in level 3 forts is too tough for a random collection of Soviets to crack in 1 turn.

True, but not in 2 turns. They'll be flanked by then, and have to give up that fort, attacked or not. A couple turns out in the open will also serve to knock down their CV. You can rotate divisions, but you can't do that, stack them 2 deep, AND cover 90 hexes of frontage.

The Soviets want to hurt you, so don't let them. Pull back a bit each turn. If most of your stacks only suffer regular attrition damage, he isn't going to break your frontline strength. Remember that trading space for preserving manpower is only possible when you still have reasonably up to strength divisions.

How can you pull back a bit each turn, and fight in level-3 forts? You can do one or the other. In hindsight, I should have abandoned my forts, fallen back 2 hexes per turn, and presented fewer targets. This is what I have learned. The means the Germans must surrender 20 or so hexes in the winter, all accross the line.

Your forces are currently just running, and you're offering him dozens of easy targets (single divisions) each turn. That has been the major flaw in your defensive plan since the start of the blizzard, and one you seemingly haven't been able to correct.

I won't argue with that, the best thing to do is to stack units in Checkerboard, retreat, and forget any forts. Sure, use a few that happen to be there, but that's it.

Even 2-deep stack will be very weak over time. You won't have lvl-3 forts after 2 turns or so, unless you somehow built them 12 hexes deep. Depleted Stacks in the open will have defensive CVs of 4-6, easy to push-over for the Reds. You can rotate units, but you can't do that AND stack them 2 deep. You don't have enough. 90 hexes of frontage = 45 stacks = 90 divisions. The Germans have 100. And that's assuming you can keep the front down to 90 hexes.

The CHECKERBOARD will also get units pinned, unless you pull it back at least 1-2 hexes EVERY turn, and force the Reds to spend MPs just to close with the line. If that's the solution, then it truly is impossible for the Germans to not lose 15-20 hexes in the winter.

The LINEBACKER defense comes from Bob. I used it on his recommendation. I held the Russians to 2-3 hexes all through December, but my troops were decimated by then. Perhaps that tactic is flawed. I used it because he's a tester, and presumably knows what he is doing.

Until I see someone post an AAR against a GOOD opponent, I do not accept that the only reason I'm screwed right now is a fatal flaw in my forward defenses. I accept that I could have done better, but a prepared, full-frontal assault like Von Beanie's will unhinge any defense. Someone please prove me otherwise. I have yet to see an AAR that has a successful winter defense.

[bevans]

Q-Ball, you are quite right to take criticisms of your defensive strategy in the context that no one has demonstrated a foolproof way of getting through blizzard season. Every AAR I have seen shows the Germans have to give up BOTH a lot of territory and have their fighting strength decimated. You are doing better than most and most of us are watching with a combination of interest and admiration.

Just as a complete semi non-sequitar, as a former Canadian (well, Canadian living in SoCal), my calculations are that 13 weeks of blizzards should deliver upwards of 200 feet of snow. There should be no one, soldier, civilian, wolf, whatever, alive in Russia come spring. Spring thaw should also run well into July. Just saying.