The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Justus2]

Very well done, CR! As you mention, you certainly seem to have achieved strategic surprise (I don't read the other AAR, so just assumption), and quite possibly operational surprise (if he is just now detecting you. And you have achieved a high level of 'meta-surprise' by catching most of us readers unaware. I thought you might have something else planned, a supporting attack somewhere else as part of a 1-2 punch to coincide with the NG landings, but did not see the NG armada as the feint, with the main effort elsewhere.

I even like the way you included the 18UK, describing it's slow march through the jungle in Burma, while they were steadily steaming across the Indian Ocean. And nice use of the code, I will have to go back through now and re-read those posts in a new light!

[JohnDillworth]

Agree with most of the above. Grab and extend whatever you can. The real battle will be your ability to keep the troops supplied. His LBA will help him but will not be decisive. In some respects you have interior lines here. He doesn't have anything behind you. The only thing he can bring is the KB and they can't stay there forever. I think John can make you miserable if he decides to conduct a "battle of the fighter pools".

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
We have a rule vs. strategic bombing until 1944, so that isn't an objective of this operation.

Well, if you can get something (LBA DBs, naval attack aircraft) within 6-7 hexes of Palembang approaches, you can have a de facto embargo without strat bombing his oil per se.

Another underrated side effect of this operation is the threat posed to Singapore proper. It serves as the best port on the Japanese right flank-bar none. With its use denied, that's a critical loss for the Japs.

Yes, can't say I am a big fan of this HR. You pulled off a coup and should reap the reward. Plus, it basically allows the stronger Japanese player (in 42 to ignore defending his oil thus concentrating more offensive power elsewhere. But even still, Sumatra is a good place to be.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
It will be very interesting to see if the successful landings [with lots of supply] can be sustained over many months with Japanese LBA so close by. It is only Nov. 1942 for Pete's sake, and allied fighter pools are not great. But if anyone can make it work, Canoe Rebel can! [:)]

Aye, that's the question. Can these landings be sustained? There will be an aerial pounding administered. CRs fighter pools will suffer further, particularly in those bases within range of the Malay peninsula. I forsee lots and lots and lots of fighter sweeps and airfield pounding.

But that won't be enough to dislodge troops, will it? Unless he puts 20 Divisions together to root out the Allies, it will be insufficient. Particularly for those islands offshore that can be built into a massive redoubt. These will require a major counter amphibious offensive into the teeth of enemy airpower. Not gonna happen in 1943.

Yes, a good point. But John will need everything he has to throw Canoe out and it may take him months of a grinding attrition fight to do it. These kind of fights generally favor the Allies. More important, he will also need KB there at least some of the time and this is a point in the campaign where KB is much more useful elsewhere. So, I think it is a good and bold move regardless. Plus after 43 the Allied divisions get some great upgrades in devices that make them much more formidable. This will be fun to watch.

However, since John does not have to provide masses of fighters to cover his exposed oil fields he will have much greater flexibility. This HR may really come back to haunt the Allies.

[Cribtop]

I like a version of that HR where you can strat bomb in 43 rather than 44. Prevents IMHO cheesy bombing during the 42 conquest but allows the Allies to benefit from an early counter-offensive.

[Nemo121]

Screw sustaining them. This isn't the time to be all british and 1916-y and take a few miles of worthless ground and begin digging in whilst awaiting the inevitable counter-attack. This is the time to:

1. Hurl an infantry division across the straits into Malaysia in order to create a bridgehead there and

2. Render Burma a complete sideshow by taking everything which isn't nailed down in Burma and India and staging it into Malaysia via northern Sumatra - if he counter-invades India or something equally stupid just laugh, let him take a few places and keep shipping troops to Sumatra and Malaysia sure in the knowledge he is like a man skewered on a bayonet trying to tickle you through stepping forward into the disemboweling bayonet. If he wants to help you disembowel himself, let him.

I find it amazing that the discussion is focusing on what he can do to you now. WTF???????????????????????????????? If I ever found anyone in charge of an exploitation group of larger than divisional size saying that in real life I'd have had them shot and slept soundly at night knowing I did the right thing. In fact that was Soviet policy in WW2 --- and it was the right policy.


Temerity will simply gift John3rd bases he would lose if Dan pushed now. Push, push hard and take everything you can. You can always withdraw to the minimum essentials later if his reaction proves overly strong ( the minimum essentials would be northern Sumatra and 1 base in Malaysia ).

Settling for JUST northern Sumatra would be to accept a massive diminution in strategic success here and would mean snatching a draw from the jaws of overwhelming victory. The attitude to be inculcated here is that given your maskirovka John CAN'T stop you. Only YOU can stop YOURSELF right now. Don't!!!!

A tip for next time:
A good tip for next time is to bring parachutists along with something like this. Split 2 Catalina squadrons into 3 flights each and then each day for the next 3 or 4 days drop 3 or 4 squads on each of the nearest 18 enemy bases ( taking particular care to drop them along the rail lines leading from Thailand to Malaysia so he can't Strategic Move reinforcements to counter your landing in Malaysia ). Sure it'll cost you some squads when you land on occupied bases but it'll save you hundreds more in the medium term and any landing which sticks will give you a safe base to unload in on the Malaysian coast.- or, at least, the sure knowledge of where he is weak. In these situations in which all is fluctuant the person who limits themselves most usually lose, don't let that be you.

Bottom line:
Don't take counsel of your fears, push, push hard, push on, NOW!!!!!!!! ( now being a landing on the Malaysian coast within 5 days of Sabang falling... anything longer than that is too long and will allow him to counter. Fortunately for you 5 days is quite a doable timeline. )

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I like a version of that HR where you can strat bomb in 43 rather than 44. Prevents IMHO cheesy bombing during the 42 conquest but allows the Allies to benefit from an early counter-offensive.

Yeah. Sounds about right.

[Grollub]

Well played Sir, hats off to you!

... and I agree with Nemo on this one. Don't start looking on what he can do to you, concentrate on what you can do to him. Keep punching while he's off balance.

[Nemo121]

Or as that great military sage, Conan the Barbarian would say.... This is the time.....

To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

Play from 25 seconds on....

[Cap Mandrake]

Yay Arries! Attack! Capture! Liberate! Seize territory for future division at post war colonialism conference!

Some of the dot bases on the islands west of Sumatra may still be green. You can put engineers ashore there without assault troops and build bases.

[JohnDillworth]

Bottom line:
Don't take counsel of your fears, push, push hard, push on, NOW!!!!!!!!

You were right when you told GreyJoy this in Japan and you are right now. It's exactly the time to be aggressive. Cut some of those rail lines in Malaysia and the wheels come off. It occurs to me that the only one of the parties is playing the Reluctant Admiral mod. Every single advantage that the mod offers the Japanese has been sidestepped. It is designed for a far reaching carrier war. Thats not whats happening here

[Chickenboy]

Dan,

No one is counseling you digging in for trench warfare, for goodness sake. There's all sorts of good options for aggressive exploitation of your beachhead, once that's taken. Your image of your inbound amphibious TFs ("10 days out") showed, quite nicely, your planned exploitation of your landings for the intermediate term. I'd recommend your readers that are interested in seeing your near-term plans revisit that post for clarification.

By 'sustain', I meant sustain the operational push, not the beachhead hex. I suspect you know that though. I think this operation is sustainable for the Allies and will be a great springboard for further exploitation.

Some of these questions cannot be answered yet, most likely, but hopefully proximate answers can be gleaned:

1. What does he have at Singapore? My guess is not a ton. No default CDs, like the British on December 7. Unlikely to have any large LCUs-most likely they're off at Burma. Recon of Singapore would be a high priority for me in your position.

2. There are several forgotten 'dot' hexes on Northern (True West) Sumatra that are unlikely to be defended. Pakanbaroe is 13 hexes south of Sabang and can be built to a level 9 AF. Sanahloento is 15 hexes south and can be built to level 8. These could be captured on the cheap by para assault.

3. Djambi is a great segue to Southern Sumatra. Nice road connection to Palembang. A great place to metastasize your troops throughout Southern Sumatra. Who needs Strat bombing if you can take the bloody thing by ground assault? It lies 18 hexes from Sabang.

4. Islands of Singep and Linggoa lie just south of Singapore, 17 hexes from Sabang. These can both be built to level 8 AF and are unlikely to be defended. If he holds Singapore, these may be difficult to keep, as they are within barge distance of Singers. Still, interesting to look at.

5. The island of Bangka (bases of Montok and Totoali lie 20/23 hexes distant) is very intriguing. Both bases could be built to AF=9. Both are also connected to one another by road. A lodgement and exploitation of this island would cut off Palembang and everything south by sea. Java would be effectively isolated and Singapore would only be approachable from the East.

6. Closer to Sabang, Phuket and Langkawi lie 5 and 6 hexes distant by sea. They have the advantage of being islands, thus requiring an amphibious counterassault. They are unlikely to be garrisoned heavily. Both can be built to level 8 AF.

7. On the Malay Peninsula, there are a few standout options for you.
A. Para assault capture of Surat Thani, Nakkon Si Thammarat and Singora (simultaneous or nearly simultaneous) will cut the rail line between Singapore and Bangkok in three places, necessitating a Japanese countermarch over hundreds of miles of jungle and trail to threaten this lodgement.

B. Combined with an amphibious landing at Victoria point, that would put you in a further position to road march to Chumpon and cut the rail line in a fourth location. Victoria point is a nice airfield (and Singora could easily be built to a very nice one too) to complement this operation further. The Victoria point-Chumpon operation has the added benefit of cutting off the entire Malay Peninsula at its narrowest neck. Pretty sweet. These are only 9/10 hexes from Sabang. Pretty sweet.

C. Georgetown is only 7 hexes from Sabang and has a fine airfield. I don't know if it's island / causeway relationship with the mainland Malay peninsula would be a good or a bad thing for an invading army in terms of exploitation. Depends on how he intends to defend it, I guess.

Summary: You have some excellent tactical, strategic and operational opportunities laid bare once you take Sabang. I agree with those that say that there will be a limited window for further exploitation before this gets "sloggy".

What can you do to balance the need for a firm lodgement with the need for a quick breakthrough and springboard exploitation? [8D]

[Captain Cruft]

You don't need to do strategic bombing to render Palembang useless. Just bomb the port. The loading rate is pathetic at the best of times, with near 100% damage the fuel and oil will basically stop flowing.

Do this with 2Es or 4Es and you don't need to get a base close enough for an actual Naval Attack blockade.

[JohnDillworth]

You don't need to do strategic bombing to render Palembang useless. Just bomb the port. The loading rate is pathetic at the best of times, with near 100% damage the fuel and oil will basically stop flowing.

Do this with 2Es or 4Es and you don't need to get a base close enough for an actual Naval Attack blockade.

He will have 10/10 naval search over the port. combine that with working torpedo and some medium range bombers with long range escort and that oil is already compromised as are the surrounding straits. This is bad news for the Japanese economy. Hey CR, get those B-25's trained on low level naval attack

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

You don't need to do strategic bombing to render Palembang useless. Just bomb the port. The loading rate is pathetic at the best of times, with near 100% damage the fuel and oil will basically stop flowing.

Do this with 2Es or 4Es and you don't need to get a base close enough for an actual Naval Attack blockade.

He will have 10/10 naval search over the port. combine that with working torpedo and some medium range bombers with long range escort and that oil is already compromised as are the surrounding straits. This is bad news for the Japanese economy. Hey CR, get those B-25's trained on low level naval attack

Fuel flows to Oosthaven just fine. It's not a big port either, but it's farther out of range from the north.

My comments on HRs restricting strat bombing shall remain unsaid here. Except to ask, does any uber-historical-play advocate think FOR AN INSTANT had the Allies a large air base infrastructure in northern Sumatra in 1942 that they would not have used it strategically?

[pws1225]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

You don't need to do strategic bombing to render Palembang useless. Just bomb the port. The loading rate is pathetic at the best of times, with near 100% damage the fuel and oil will basically stop flowing.

Do this with 2Es or 4Es and you don't need to get a base close enough for an actual Naval Attack blockade.

He will have 10/10 naval search over the port. combine that with working torpedo and some medium range bombers with long range escort and that oil is already compromised as are the surrounding straits. This is bad news for the Japanese economy. Hey CR, get those B-25's trained on low level naval attack

A JFB's worst nightmare!

[Canoerebel]

Lots of posts here - I only have an instant, and haven't ready your posts yet - but will do so later today. For now, a few comments:

1. I do have paratroops along. 2nd Marine 'chutes come ashore in a couple of days. I also have quite a few units stacke dup at Akyab. I can see the wisdom to using APDs to shuttle them to Ramree, thence by PBY to the Nicobars or (if in range) Sabang.

2. I agree fundamentally with the concept that now is the time to push. A key component of that, though, is making sure I attend to the highest priority items, which mean taking Sabang in huge force (to have the troops ready to roll down the coastal highway) and to take Sibolga. I have to use my ships judiciously - with carrier support - so that I don't end up messing up the foundation before I even start building the walls and installing the windows and chandeliers and door bells.

3. I have lots of extra troops along, but not an endless number. Some of the troops (32nd Div., for example) are coming in strat mode to unload once Sabang falls (I did this to conserve as much precious cargo space as possible). I might be able to orchestrate a move into Malaya. I will very closely look at that.

4. John is airlifting troops from Port Blair to Sabang, so I want to keep tabs on that too.

5. One of the big aspects of this exercise is to really mess with John's mind. How does he now handle the huge army he has in Burma? If he decides to stay and fight, how does he supply them? If he decides to pull them out - well, that's not going to be an option for him. So he's going to bring everything he can from elsewhere to try and reclaim his territory.

6. I told John Dillworth this. In lawyering, a big part of the battle is obtaining a verdict and a judgment. All the effort goes to that - prepaing the case and winning the trial. But it's only half the battle, and is meaningless unless you also win the second half - collecting your judgment. And that can be nearly impossible (bankrutpcy!). Here, I think I'm going to take a verdict and judgment in my favor. Now, can I collect on it? We'll see.

[JohnDillworth]

The biggest advantage of getting something in Malaya is that John HAS to deal with that first. You can consolidate everything else while he deals with that. If you keep a foothold, even better. Once the rail line is cut he has to figure out if you are going North or South. Burma would be done. Burma is probably done anyway but a landing on Malaya means everyone packs tonight. I guess it's no secret but he has to come at you with the KB and he has to do it from th open ocean. He can't really keep up a blockade so he had to swing up north and come looking for you. Up to you if you want to fight.

[AcePylut]

Strategic, Operational, and Tactical Surprise.

Well Done sir, well done.

[Canoerebel]

11/10/42 - D-Day for Operation Des Wallace

I worked hard to flip a turn and now have a family obligation, so still no chance to read all the comments posted in depth. You can bet I'm looking forward to doing so when things slow down a bit later today. Here's a quick look at D-Day:

D-Day on the Ground: 18th UK Div. and a USAAF base force begin landing at Sabang, which is lightly defended - 10th Garrison Unit (confirming SigInt). John is also bringing in Imperial Guards via airlift from Port Blair. The American slow BBs unleash a devastating bombardment, nuking the airfield and driving down apparent AV to around 40. I only have 130 AV ashore (with the main body beginning to land tonight), but I'm gonig to shock attack tomorrow, preceded by another bombardment mission. The hope is that 18th UK might steal the base a turn early, which would free up the carriers to begin work at Sibolga. No IJ base force at Sabang ([X(]) and a bunch of aircraft are destroyed on the field. Sabang's level three field shouldn't again play a factor while in enemy hands.

D-Day in the Air: Modest enemy air raids, mainly by some Betties with Zero escorts, manage to put a bomb into CVE Long Island (light damage, she sticks around to continue the fight). Alot of Bettys downed (roughly 50), which is nice. Other small enemy missions don't accomplish anything. Allied carrier air don't waste any sorites going after riff-raff shipping - there's a bunch closing in from the Rangoon vicinity - perhaps intentionally by John to soak off missions. I'll know more later. However, the Allied strike aircraft also decline to fly their "alternate" missions to hammer Sabang troops and airfield. I've switched all to troops (as altnernate mission with naval strike priority) for tomorrow in hopes of stealing Sabang.

D-Day at Sea: No major enemy operations. A sub sinks a supply xAK. Allied picket and small combat TFs will move into the straits to try to interdict some enemy shipping. Per SigIn and other reports, John is scrambling to bring in troops (naturally) including a brigade to Padang. I will try to prevent this if Sabang falls expeditiously (no more than two days) so that my carriers are free to move down to Sibolga, from which they can then cover landings there and any enemy moves towards Padang or across the island at Medan. A Dutch sub sinks a CM bringing troops to the island.

Assessment: So far so good. Very light enemy opposition on day one indicating complete surprise. As we go further along, entropy will begin to assert itself and friction and time and risk and luck play a bigger role. I'm trying to keep things tight and neat until Sabang is attended to, then I can begin to get a bit more create in handling things further down the island and perhaps at Malaya.

Elsewhere: Oz-based SBDs miss CA Chikuma sprinting west towards the Torres Straights.