AAR swift vs fochinell

[von Shagmeister]

I can't remember where I read it. I've just had a quick look through a few books I have to hand and couldn't find it. I'll have a proper look and let you know.

[von Shagmeister]

One "source" I do remember is a documentary on the combined bomber offensive on the BBC a number of years ago. A war time RAF medical officer was being interviewed reference the effect of the losses on the morale of the crews and he said on some of the raids the losses were near to the 10% considered unsustainable.
 
Only anecdotal I know, but I'm certain I've read it as well, it's a figure that sticks in my mind.

[Rebel Yell]

Interesting.  I've never read anything that lead me to believe losses over 4% would have been sustainable for very long.  As fochinell pointed out, the British sustained 5% averages for a few months, but it stretched them to their limit.

[von Shagmeister]

ORIGINAL: Rebel Yell

Interesting.  I've never read anything that lead me to believe losses over 4% would have been sustainable for very long.  As fochinell pointed out, the British sustained 5% averages for a few months, but it stretched them to their limit.

You wouldn't have thought that losses running at 5% practically every mission would be sustainable let alone 10%. Of course the interval between missions makes a big difference. Personally I think that the morale of existing crews would fail long before the 10% figure was ever reached even if replacement crews and a/c were available to fill the gaps.

[Rebel Yell]

Exactly.  Replacement aircraft aside, morale is going to break with those kind of losses.

[Hard Sarge]

10% was still the goal to stay away from

one thing going for BC at the time, the crews didn't know they are getting hit at that high a loss rate

they would know there Squadron got hit HARD, or maybe one of the ones near them, but pretty much never knew the losses for the whole raid

one sample, which would be funny, if it was not so sad, the crews used to report on the use of Scarecrow flak/flares that the Germens were using to try and make them think bombers were exploding, and how at times, the Germens were really using a lot of Scarecrows on this or that mission (the Scarecrows were in fact, Bombers exploding)

also, remember the 10% number is also more based on being able to replace losses and still grow your forces

your chances of living though your mission count, is very poor, but the Command would still be able to fuction

also you must remember, the Air War was very deadly (the VIIIth AF lost more men then the U.S.Marines did in the 2nd WW)

if you ever get a chance, look up some of the pilot lists from BoB, and then see how many lived to the end of the War

[fochinell]

Interesting. I've never read anything that lead me to believe losses over 4% would have been sustainable for very long. As fochinell pointed out, the British sustained 5% averages for a few months, but it stretched them to their limit.

Actually, I was pointing out that BC lost 5% over the course of an entire year, 1942, which was - overall - their worst attrition rate IIRC. Also they sustained 5% for six months during the last quarter of '43 and the first quarter of '44. I'm with HS on this - it didn't manifest itself in an equal loss across all squadrons; sometimes squadrons would escape losses entirely, other times they could lose four, five or even six out of twenty (usually from the Stirling or Halifax squadrons rather than the Lancs). My great-uncle's crew in 61 Squadron went all the way though from the Peenemunde raid to BC's first attack on Schweinfurt at the end of February with little more than some flak damage to the aircraft skinning. OK, they didn't make it, but they were shot down on the last op of their tour after almost thirty ops right through this period, including five raids on Berlin.

The point about timing is completely correct - sustaining a couple of 7% losses in one month alongside a dozen missions with 2% loss rates brings the average down. Even 10% is sustainable if your aircrew replacement machine is large enough, but again HS's point about morale declining in those circumstances is precisely right.

[fochinell]

And now a poor beginning to the New Year:

1944 January 1st. A: 25/1151 (14 aa), X: 4/76 (0 gd). Werner tells me these are all SAS losses, and I believe him.

ETO: 8th AF hit Emden-Jade PORT for 99% with no resistance. 1/278f 1/128b. 9th AF P-47D strike Norderham PORT for 46% in support, 3/160f to Flak and balloons.

MTO: Tactical fighter raids, nothing exciting.

BC: 1 Group attack Leipzig for what looks like a poor raid. LG's on target, but subsequent bombing is scattered throughout the city with some bombloads hitting open country and others hit Taucha. 11/291b due to Flak and NJG activity, with no NI kills despite 141 Squadron making several attacks on RTB's at Wesendorf AF.

1944 January 2nd. A: 46/1357 (21 aa), X: 6/217 (0 gd).

ETO: 8th AF to Minden-Weser PORT for 55%, 2/282f 11/126b 7e; all down to a cripple-hunt on the return leg. 9th AF fighter strike on Handels Hafen PORT for 31% goes in too early and does little to help cover the return leg. 1/156f. 2TAF Tiffie raid on St Gobain loses 5 Typhoons and 1 Spit IX for crappy bombing results. Hmm, time to post some people to Burma to encourage the rest. [:@]

MTO: Some strafing attacks on Lonate Pazzolo AF by the 12th AF's new P-47D's go badly - again, with most of the 14 P-47D's lost today going down to Re 2005's here. A P-38H strike on RR in the south turns into a long-distance strafing suicide run after the Stab units in southern Italy come up to fight, with the Lightnings wandering off towards Milan attempting to exhaust the ammo supply of all Werner's LAA gunners en route. I feel some postings to Guadalcanal coming on...

BC: 3 Group to Hamm for the last operation of the two Stirling squadrons in 3 Group before converting to Lanc III's, 1/242b for no NJG resistance. Bombing not too concentrated, with some misses, and the supporting LNSF Oboe raid going wide and losing several Mossies to flak damage - 3/12b. On the other hand, PR reveals Leipzing RR is at 99% after the 1 Group raid last night, so credit to the heavy bombloads of the leading wave of Lancasters for that.

[fochinell]

The bad results for the Allies continue...

3rd January 1944. A: 72/2101 (24 aa), X: 14/700 (0 gd). 19 Spit IX, 10 B-25D, 21 B-17F.

MTO: 15th AF hit their secondary, Wien Winterhafen OILS for 99%. No resistance. 0/240f 2/96b 0e. A variety of the usual tactical stuff over Italy, including a MAC Mitchell raid on Breda AFAC which gets massacred by Flak, even at 16,000ft altitude. Gnnngh. [:@]

ETO: The 8th with 9th AF P-47 attacks in support go for Bussing NAG EFAC for 10% damage, and a cripple-hunt on the return leg - 0/299f 21/126b 13e. A 2TAF Typhoon raid on Antwerp RR misfires, with another terrible combat result for the escorting Spit IX's 18/31f 2/39b 3e.

BC: 4 Group to Hannover, slightly understrength due to auto-upgrade helpfully re-equipping a squadron with Lanc III's - 0/192b. 3 NI Mossies lost, with no NJG activity or kills, but Hamm RR PR'd at 99% to compensate.

[fochinell]

4th January 1944. A: 23/1073 (7 aa), X: 15/328 (10 gd). 6 P-39.

ETO: Some deep-penetration fighter sweeps by the 8th AF looking for a fight on the north German plain, but losses are minimal on both sides.

MTO: Various tactical fighter strikes, limited combat.

BC: 5 Group to Halle for what looks like a reasonable raid, 4/352b, with the LNSF to Berlin 1/23 mossies. No NJG activity.

5th January 1944. A: 10/840 (5 aa), X: 2/261 (0 gd).

ETO: Rest in the west.

MTO: The usual tactical fighter strikes, with a low-level Mossie FB.VI strike on AGIP Petrol at the head of the Adriatic adding some interest to the usual routine, 99% damage.

BC: 6 Group to Wilhelmsburg for a scattered raid, several bombloads hitting the adjacent Shell plant, 2/336b, NJG active but no NI claims, curses. On the other hand, a load of Ju88's do end up chasing the Wimpey RCMs and get lead away from the stream before it reaches the target - a rare illustration of my standard RCM tactic paying off. 205 Group demonstrate their desire for all-round court-martials by trying a deep penetration to Breslau-Oder PORT and missing it entirely. [:@]

6th January 1944. A: 29/1024 (14 aa), X: 15/124 (0 gd).

ETO: Another bad weather day.

MTO: 15th AF send two small forces to hit aviation sites in nothern Italy - Turin FIAT EFAC hit for 88% and Reggio AFAC for 43%. They get some kills - 0/190f 2/128b 11e, but the main fight was against a P-39 sweep which was sent up to distract the LW earlier and which it succeeds in doing, despite demonstrating the inferiority of the Airacobra to the 109 G6/R6 in the process. Various other tactical strikes, the worst of which was an A-20 strike on SIAP Vado Ligure on the Genoese coast by 12th AF A-20's; the strike is the usual ineffective effort by the mediums, but I foolishly used one of the BG's based in southern Italy, who then take casualties from Werner's Stab units in the south as they head back for home strung out and vulnerable. 14/64 Boston's lost, but Werner did lose an 18-kill ace, which cheers me up.

The Liberator D's have now been phased out of 205 Group in favour of the Halifax II's being released by 4 Group's steady conversion to the Halifax III. 1 Group has begun replacing it's Lanc I's with Lanc III's, and 627 Squadron in the LNSF have stood down to re-equip with the Mossie B.XVI. 2TAF have also finally begun equipping with the Spit XIV, while FC Spit Vb units have begun re-equipping with the P-51B.

[wernerpruckner]

but Werner did lose an 18-kill ace, which cheers me up.

 
[:(][:(][:(]
it is sad to lose the leading ace in Italy
 
but there are 4 others with 15 kills

[fochinell]

My arse-kicking by Werner continues [:@]

7th January 1944. A: 90/1138 (52aa), X: 12/888 (0gd). Quite possiblyThe Worst Turn Of All Time. 60 Thunderbolts lost for nil practical results.

MTO: The usual tactical stuff, with minor losses in exchange for zero bombing impact.

ETO: Some long-range fighter raids and sweeps by the 9th and 8th AF's under the weather (about 8,000ft) get massacred, mostly due to the enormous quantity of Flak OKL have laid out across the northern German plain with Rail Flak on almost all the AF's between Holland and the Ems. The only redeeming feature of the day was a successful low-level 2 Group mossie FB strike on Altona OILS for 87% damage and 2/24 lost.

BC: 1 Group to Hannover, which has received an enormous number of Halifax bombloads for mediocre or minimal damage to the RR there. 8/291b for all bombloads plotted in the city area. NJG are active for once, and evade the intruders. [:(]

8th January 1944. A: 176/2979 (56aa), X: 95/1424 (0gd). Heavy losses for a decent bombing result for once. 15 Spit Vb, 10 Spit IX, 22 P-38L, 20 P-47D, 30 B-25D, 12 B-26B and 24 B-17F.

MTO: The medium bombers hit Italian industry - or try to; flak losses for zero bombing results again. Repeated AF strikes against Venegono and Oria by the tactical fighters fail miserably, catching no Axis fighters on the ground although a couple are damaged. One good result was the Baltimore strike on Viterbo RR, which saw 237 Sqn on their first op kill 6 Fw190 A8/R8 from one staffel on the return leg.

ETO: A deep-penetration by a small 8th AF force with maximum escort largely pays off; 32/590f 24/160b 69e and DB Genshagen EFAC 69%, with the combat taking place south of Bremen on the return. The tactical raids supporting the return leg do less well, with the 9th AF Marauders missing Rothensee-Elbe OILS 11/315f 12/64b 20e while the insanely-at-limit-of-Spitfire-range 2TAF Mitchell raid to the OILR outside Bremen takes heavy losses on the return leg, although mostly after the bingo fuel bug kicks in and the bombers are left unescorted when they get to Rotterdam on the return. The Spits do OK, with 610 Sqn on the first Spit XIV op getting 2 Fw190's and one damaged for no losses, but the timing was excellent to get LW fighters going blue and RTBing from the 8th AF fight and yet the Spits lack the agression needed for better results - 16/412f 24/72b 36e. Needless to say, despite getting to the target untouched, the bombers do zilch damage. To brighten things up, another low-level 2 Group mossie FB strike hits DEA-Heide OILR for 78% and 0/24 lost.

BC: 3 Group hit Harburg Rhenania OILR, the bigest one outside Hamburg 4/240 lost and 167 bombloads hitting the target area. No NJG activity but a record 5 NI's go down to Flak. Hannover RR PR'd at 73% damage and Leipzig at 95%.

[fochinell]

More of the same boring stuff - constant Allied losses due to Flak and criple-hunting as a result of small-scale tactical operations. [>:]

9th January 1944. A: 11/658 (5aa), X: 1/43 (1gd). ETO shut down by weather.

MTO: 15th AF attack Milan Alfa EFAC and Pirelli Tyre RUBBER, 0/292f 1/128b 0e. Practicalkly nil bombing results, only Pirelli RUBBER suffering 22% damage. Various useless tactical strikes on RR.

10th January 1944. A: 5/334 (2aa), X: 0/0.

MTO: Some tactical fighter strikes, the best being a Mossie FB raid on Nero Montero STEEL for 68%.

ETO: A VSITE raid by the 2TAF Hurris, whose only purpose is to flog themselves to death on the VSITES for nil returns.

BC: 4 Group to Cologne Eifeltor, 3/240b and 0/24 LNSF to the same target. The last two squadrons of Halifax II's in 4 Group then re-equip with the Halifax III.

11th January 1944. A: 42/645 (17aa), X: 1/271 (0gd).

MTO: More of the usual tactical raids, with 328 squadron being massacred on a sweep to Oria AF and losing all 18 P-39's involved. That's why they have P-39's. [8|]

ETO: A couple of tactical raids on VSITEs and RR miss their primaries, with only a flak-damaged straggler or two being caught.

BC: Weather cancelled.

12th January 1944. A: 24/717 (11aa), X: 1/242 (0gd).

MTO: The usual tactical stuff, with the routine P-39 sweep to the AF's north of Milan actually claiming an air-to-air kill by some miracle.

ETO: 5 Group to Wuppertal do the first LGO raid in while, but at least the three lead H2S squadrons seem to be on target. No NJG activity.

[fochinell]

Werner,

I'm getting bounces from your mail server, in case you're wondering what's happened to the recent turn.

[wernerpruckner]

Gavin,
 
an alternate email adress has been send to you....
can you look onto the time/date stamps of your last few mails ( they seem to be wrong ) 

[fochinell]

an you look onto the time/date stamps of your last few mails ( they seem to be wrong )

Test mailings to my own address seem to have the correct timings in the SMTP envelope...

[Gargantou]

Just gotta say, awsome AAR guys, just got BTR and BoB in the mail finally, once I finish my first campaigns against AI, I'm hoping to find some people here that are willing to do some PBEM campaigns.

[fochinell]

13th January 1944. A: 30/1440 (22aa), X: 2/83 (0gd).

MTO: 15th AF attack aviation sites in northern Italy, repeating the plan from 9th January; good bombing results for once, although one target was a secondary - Breda AFAC 99%, Brescia-Breda ARM 99%. Nil resistance - 0/192f 0/192b 0e. The number of active BG's in the 15th means some more interesting large-scale attacks will be contemplated when the weather clears enough. Other than that, the usual tactical raids on RR and Milanese AF's, although the timing is poor and the coverage would have missed any interceptors RTBing even if Werner's crews hadn't chickened out.

ETO: Some short-range tactical strikes on Belgian targets dodging the cloud-base.

BC: 6 Group to Hohenbudberg for what looks like a decent raid, with over 75% of the bombloads in the city area. 6 Group are handicapped by only having two H2S units to lead raids, unlike the other groups in BC, so that's not a bad result in terms of concentration on target. Weather desynchonises the Oboe mossie supporters, who attack after the 6 Group raid is completed, for a small scattering of 500lb bombs on target. No NJG activity, with the usual couple of NI losses to Flak.

[fochinell]

13th January 1944. A: 141/2483 (23aa), X: 117/2331 (0gd). It looks like my second 13th January turn due to a snafu of some kind, probably me sending Werner two 12th January turns although I can't confirm that. Oh well, this turn is too good to lose - 10 P-38L, 24 P-47D, 22 P-51B, 10 B-26B, 48 B-17F.

MTO: Even the endless tactical raids are suspended due to the weather.

ETO: The 8th are back, two forces of 160 B-17F's going for Erla AFAC and Mittel-Deutsche EFAC. Initial inbound escort by two groups of 9th AF Thunderbolts and two FC sqns of recently-re-quipped with P-51B's to allow me to concentrate the 8th fighter units on the return leg which Werner seems to be favouring at the moment. A skirmish or two south of Hannover is the sum total of the combat on the inbound leg, while OKL opt for a major interception of the inbound return-leg escorts. Meanwhile the bombers do nil damage to Mittel-Deutsche while the Erla force splits up to attack T/O's in the Leipzig area. Fortunately, OKL haven't opted to intercept this force en masse as this is a recipe for disaster in the face of significant resistance. Meanwhile some P-47's of the final wave of escorts come off second-best at the Dutch coast and return home after a hammering by some Fw190's, but at least half of them get through and all my P-51 and P-38's seem to reach the bombers on the return leg and conduct a good defence until the bingo fuel bug cuts in. As a result most of my B-17 losses occur recrossing the Dutch coast on the way home. 46/760f 48/320b 105e. The highlight for me was the 356th and 56th FG's hitting II/JG 301 for five 109G6/R6's each in their first, consecutive attacks.

The 9th AF support sees the Marauders hit Nordhafen RUBBER for zero results, but the inbound P-47 escorts do a lot of useful work covering the 8th's exit leg over Holland despite what looks like an LGO raid, 17/232f 10/64b 46e. The 2TAF Mitchells come in too far south and a fraction too late to see any serious fighting but hit Randerath CHEM for 51% and score 2/294f 3/72b 5e. The Tiffies hit a Belgian CHEM site without opposition.

BC: Three attacks this turn; 1 Group to Dresden for a concentrated attack and over 80% of the bombloads in the city area 1/292b, while 205 Group do pennace for their recent crap performance by an ultra-deep penetration raid to Berlin and manage to get all their bombloads in the city area, largely due to its size, 5/172b. This is immediately followed up by the LNSF, with 24 Mossie B.IV's and the first op by 12 Mossie B.XVI's to add their disruption to Werner's late-night party at the RLM, 0/36b. PR of some recent BC targets is disappointing, Harburg Rhenania OIL at 61% but Hohenbudberg 44%, Halle and Cologne/Eifeltor both at 27%.

[SMK-at-work]

MTO: Even the endless tactical raids are suspended due to the weather.

 
this worries me a bit........how much of the game is fairly tedious, repetitive "minor" stuff like this or recce?
 
Will there be automated methods of doing these if, for example, you want to concentrate on the daylight strategic bombing of industry?