Dispatches from OKH: Q-Ball (Axis) v. Von Beeanie (SOV)

Post descriptions of your brilliant victories and unfortunate defeats here.

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Panama
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Panama »

ORIGINAL: bevans

Q-Ball, you are quite right to take criticisms of your defensive strategy in the context that no one has demonstrated a foolproof way of getting through blizzard season. Every AAR I have seen shows the Germans have to give up BOTH a lot of territory and have their fighting strength decimated. You are doing better than most and most of us are watching with a combination of interest and admiration.

Just as a complete semi non-sequitar, as a former Canadian (well, Canadian living in SoCal), my calculations are that 13 weeks of blizzards should deliver upwards of 200 feet of snow. There should be no one, soldier, civilian, wolf, whatever, alive in Russia come spring. Spring thaw should also run well into July. Just saying.

A blizzard does not necessarily mean a huge amount of snow. It can be a small amount of snow combined with high winds and bitter cold. An inch of snow can do a very good job of causing a white out condition.

I don't understand why the Soviets are so well supplied at the end of 1941. Successful offensives all along the front were not possible. No supplies for it. The reasons the Soviets were so successful initially were because the Germans were logistically, mechanically and physically exhausted and the Soviets had relatively fresh reserves. Ill trained but fresh. It wasn't because they had huge stocks of supplies in reserve. They should not have the means to conduct a huge winter long offensive. Just sayin.

The Soviets should not be capable of more than a brigade or two worth of para drops. It just wasn't possible.
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krupp_88mm
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by krupp_88mm »

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Encircled
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Encircled »

You are doing better than anybody else

You've identified areas in which you may have made an error, and you stand to come out of the blizzard in relatively good shape.

Its going to be tough driving the Soviets back, but if your Panzers are refitted and well rested, you will go right through him.

He almost certainly going to have a load of reserve units building shed loads of forts, but you should still be able to make some ground.

*EDIT* I don't mean "error" as a criticism btw. I think we all are convinced that we will do better than anybody else in the blizzard, and stay fighting on the 1st turn of it. Once we've had our asses handed to us on a plate, we don't do it anymore!
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KenchiSulla
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by KenchiSulla »

ORIGINAL: cookie monster

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

Is it just me, or is it a bit crazy to be able to screw up rail networks with suicidal para drops?

Para brigades only convert the hex they land in. So he's damaged one hex. The rail network is not screwed until the troops turn yellow/red under show isolated units etc...

Cookie monster, the problem is they convert the hex they land in... (and you need combat units to convert it back, not just construction forces...This is why I think it is a bit lame....) many hexes behind the front line at critical junctions... As this game shows it is highly disruptive...
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ComradeP
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by ComradeP »

Dropping airborne brigades to disrupt supply lines is basically a one shot plan, as they'll die and never come back.
So Germans should plan in advance.... not even to stop and defend (which is already unhistoric enough) but.... to run away?!?

They stop to defend, as they move one hex back each turn, not more.
True, but not in 2 turns. They'll be flanked by then, and have to give up that fort, attacked or not. A couple turns out in the open will also serve to knock down their CV. You can rotate divisions, but you can't do that, stack them 2 deep, AND cover 90 hexes of frontage.

You're not intending to hold them for 2 turns, you're intending to hold them for 1 turn. The attrition alone is bad, but as it's mostly damage, CV's shouldn't drop nearly as much as when you're being attacked.
How can you pull back a bit each turn, and fight in level-3 forts? You can do one or the other.

That depends on when you start digging, where you dig and where you defend. Keep in mind that you'll only need level 1 or 2 forts in non-clear terrain types to have a defensive CV increase that's the same as with a level 3 fort due to the intrinsic terrain fort levels.
In hindsight, I should have abandoned my forts, fallen back 2 hexes per turn, and presented fewer targets.

That's what you do with a slowly withdrawing hedgehog, you present few easy targets and force him to make deliberate attacks everywhere, whenever he wants to attack.

The blizzard adds +2 to every movement MP cost, a clear hex costs 1 MP to enter, entering an enemy hex costs the average Soviet unit 4 MP's as with the recent morale changes it's unlikely they'll have 56 or higher morale. Even with the shock army or Guards bonus, effective national morale is still 45 or 50 for Soviet units in 1941, as national morale is 40. Deliberate attacks cost six MP's. Any Rifle division with less than 13 MP's won't be able to make a deliberate attack. Rifle brigades need a minimum of 15 MP's. Tank brigades need their maximum of 25 MP's to be able to launch a deliberate attack.

As such, it's pretty safe to assume many Soviet units won't be capable of launching a deliberate attack when you move back a hex each turn.
Until I see someone post an AAR against a GOOD opponent, I do not accept that the only reason I'm screwed right now is a fatal flaw in my forward defenses. I accept that I could have done better, but a prepared, full-frontal assault like Von Beanie's will unhinge any defense. Someone please prove me otherwise. I have yet to see an AAR that has a successful winter defense.

Q-Ball, the best indication of why I'm saying your defensive strategy was flawed is post 155, by you, on page 6. Take a look at your defensive CV's in the screenshots. Most are below 10, or around 10. Take a look at Soviet offensive CV. They can easily get 10 when they attack with 2 stacks, or already have 10 on single stacks.

Still, knowing that and knowing that the Soviets only need 1:1 odds to force your troops to retreat, you chose to defend those positions. That's why your strategy is flawed: you're trying to accomplish the impossible, leading to unnecessary losses. You could see the problem quite clearly, as your CV's are in basically all cases lower than what the Soviets can attack you with, but you still maintained those positions.

Think about that for a few minutes whilst looking at the screenshots you posted in post 155, I think you'll see my point.
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Oleg Mastruko
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Oleg Mastruko »

ORIGINAL: ComradeP
Still, knowing that and knowing that the Soviets only need 1:1 odds to force your troops to retreat, you chose to defend those positions. That's why your strategy is flawed: you're trying to accomplish the impossible, leading to unnecessary losses. You could see the problem quite clearly, as your CV's are in basically all cases lower than what the Soviets can attack you with, but you still maintained those positions.

Think about that for a few minutes whilst looking at the screenshots you posted in post 155, I think you'll see my point.

Mathematically you're right, but shouldn't it be crazy to suggest he should LEAVE level 3 forts to go back to.... I don't know, nothing, or in any case lower level?

In war there are not many cases of soldiers leaving well prepared forts based on.... superstition, fear of magical powers? [;)] Because that's what current weather rules are - magic that hepls one side or the other.

This just shows that the game's way of dealing with blizzards is wrong, if level 3 forts fall easily on the first turn, or should be abandoned outright, as it only gets worse after that.

Good positions should take some time to crack, then you get 2-3 more turns of these ridicolous blizzard rules (5 total) and then this whole winter travesty stops. That, in my opinion, is the easiest way to deal with this, with as little changes to the game code and rules as possible.

We'll deal with German summer supermen in some other thread though [;)]
ComradeP
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by ComradeP »

I'm not seeing those German supermen in the summer.

In any case: I don't really see the problem with having to withdraw from forts when you're being flanked, it's the logical thing to do. You can't hold the line, so you withdraw a bit each turn. Lower the blizzard penalties and the Germans will probably be able to hold the line, completely removing the chance for the Soviets to attack successfully.
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Pipewrench
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Pipewrench »

CommardP,

thanks for your response as it did clear up some things for me, especialy the reference back to page 155. Speaking for myself I seem to be missing some key points which are now highlighted by your post.
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bevans
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by bevans »

Canadians are a peaceful, easy going lot in general but try to tell us about bad weather, well - that is war. Cold weather does not equal a blizzard; toss in wind, still not a blizzard. Add snow (and possibly remove the cold ('cold' being a relative term)), that is a blizzard. The Canadian definition of blizzard requires enough snow to reduce visibility to next to nothing. Admittedly there is a large horizontal vector in blizzard snow velocity but the Law of Gravity has not been repealed and snow will continue to fall to the ground. So the point I was trying to make is that there were not 13 consecutive weeks of blizzards everywhere in Russia. This is just the mechanism that the designers have used to attempt to provide a historical level of damage to the Wehrmacht.

I will now allow the conversation to return the key points: whether the designer's ahistoric approach gives historic results (my view: no) and regardless of the answer to the first point, how to best deal with this.

And a final thought: has anyone tried what AGC largely ended up doing: defending forward strong points and the supply lines feeding them (see 'contour map' kindly provided above)? Suspect this is not viable in WitE, supply being more off/on in the game than it was in reality.
Senno
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Senno »

About supply. Can you imagine the complaints if it wasn't as off/on as it was now? "Hey, my I Corps has been low on supply for 4 turns straight, and I can't conduct 2 deliberate attacks in a row. Only 1 hasty and 1 deliberate!!! Gimme my money back!"

OK, I tend to hyperbole a bit. But I don't play a game so I can sit there (on either side) and be out of supply for months in a row. Some sliding of the scale towards "game" vs "history" has to take place. And I like being able to move and attack. Maybe that's just me, though.

And with the destruction of AGC and the huge gap driven in between AGN and AGC in reality. I'm not sure that the "blizzard" is so wrong. Had Hitler allowed von Bock to withdraw, they would have ended up in generally the same place, just not with a 120 mile yawning gap in the frontline and AGC with it's head in a noose....Does the German player want that much reality? Probably not. If you do, start up the '42 GC.

And in AGS, the front line dissolved at one point and the way to D-town was open. Supply situation down there was only thing stopping a more general collapse of AGS probably.

For anyone unhappy with the blizzard period, BA's proposed House Rules seem a good compromise until data is in, and the Devs can sort out what, if anything must be done.

We still have not seen a Beta 5/6 game played through the winter to '42. How can anyone say with confidence that the current implementation is globally wrong?


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Encircled
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Encircled »

Pretty much what a few of us have been saying

I messed up in my first blizzard, and I've read every hint, suggestion and rant on here to try to think of ways around it!

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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by PeeDeeAitch »

I've messed up every blizzard I have played against humans so far, and I expect to mess up more. I wish I had done better in the fair weather like Q-Ball had.
 
(See my AAR for the ultimate plan to survive winter - "Operation Seelow Heights"
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Encircled
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Encircled »

The key does seem to go as far east as fast as possible, then come haring back west just one hex at a time ahead of the Soviet juggernaut.

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2ndACR
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by 2ndACR »

Go as far east as possible and then when the snow hits, run as far west as possible to create a huge buffer zone to save the German army from any attacks until Feb 42. That is the only way I can see any hope at all. Leave only the forces you can rail back to your lines to prevent the Russian from advancing until the blizzard. Make him waste the entire blizzard just trying to find you. Otherwise, there is no hope. That is the only viable option I see any more.
randallw
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by randallw »

The length of the turns ( 7 days ) forces the weather in a zone to be a bit furgy; perhaps they could have had half-effect weather, like partial mud, to simulate mixed weather during a week.
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Q-Ball
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Q-Ball »

I understand ComradePs point, and I will try this again with a checkerboard-1-hex-back approach. I still need to see someone do this successfully, because so far, it hasn't happened.

In theory I get it, but it will get very difficult to have even the Checkerboarded units in good shape, once you are in the open without forts, and Winter attrition has taken it's toll.

1-Hex back still leaves enough MPs for the Soviets to make Deliberate attacks with Rifle Divisions. If I were facing this defense as the Reds, I would still get deliberate attacks on every stack, and leave Tank Bdes as exploitation units. Single-stacked units will be vulnerable anyway, double-stacked will take big casualties.

I fought forward because I didn't want to just hand-over forts I built.

IF everything goes perfectly, the Germans will surrender 13 hexes of frontage. That's a big IF, since attrition alone will rapidly erode combat power.

Someone put this into practice and post an AAR, please.....
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Oleg Mastruko
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Oleg Mastruko »

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I fought forward because I didn't want to just hand-over forts I built.

Exactly! Any strategy that suggests just giving up forts is nothing but confirmation that something is indeed deeply flawed!

I've never seen a wargame, let alone a real world situation, that suggests leaving forts to make space between defender and attacker, because, suddenly, overnight, attackers have eaten kryptonite and turned into fort-eating Godzillas [:@]
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Klydon
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Klydon »

Part of the issue right now (and Russians who have been playing AAR's recently as well, feel free to chime in) is that it doesn't take the Russians making deliberate attacks to get anyplace against the Axis. The games have been featuring 60-70+ attacks a turn with a huge success rate and I am guessing that the vast majority of those are not deliberate attacks. You do have to make them from time to time (especially against the Rumanian mountain units or just about anyone in a fort in rough), but overall, its very low. 
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Oleg Mastruko
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by Oleg Mastruko »

I will actually diasgree with this. Majority of the attacks are Deliberate. Later on, when you just push totally devastated units around there are Hasty attacks too (blizzard goes on and on and ON...).

However I don't see how this changes the main argument....
bevans
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RE: Winter of our Discontent.....

Post by bevans »

It just seems to me that snow is not enough of a handicap and blizzards are far too much for the Axis. I don't actually have any problems with CVs dropping like the proverbial rock in blizzards - anyone who has tried to do anything during one understands just how difficult it must have been to fight during one. The whole concept that any unit's CV increases during a blizzard is laughable. Better prepared units might not be crippled by blizzards but that is about the best one could do. Large offensive operations would be impossible; defense would be severely handicapped. The entire first winter thing is just a transparently artificial system for delivering the end effects desired by the developers. I think they got it a bit wrong and are working to fix it. All of which I understand and accept. Meanwhile I am in late November and preparing my Python defense (of the Monty variety, i.e. Run Away!).
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