Dropping airborne brigades to disrupt supply lines is basically a one shot plan, as they'll die and never come back.
So Germans should plan in advance.... not even to stop and defend (which is already unhistoric enough) but.... to run away?!?
They stop to defend, as they move one hex back each turn, not more.
True, but not in 2 turns. They'll be flanked by then, and have to give up that fort, attacked or not. A couple turns out in the open will also serve to knock down their CV. You can rotate divisions, but you can't do that, stack them 2 deep, AND cover 90 hexes of frontage.
You're not intending to hold them for 2 turns, you're intending to hold them for 1 turn. The attrition alone is bad, but as it's mostly damage, CV's shouldn't drop nearly as much as when you're being attacked.
How can you pull back a bit each turn, and fight in level-3 forts? You can do one or the other.
That depends on when you start digging, where you dig and where you defend. Keep in mind that you'll only need level 1 or 2 forts in non-clear terrain types to have a defensive CV increase that's the same as with a level 3 fort due to the intrinsic terrain fort levels.
In hindsight, I should have abandoned my forts, fallen back 2 hexes per turn, and presented fewer targets.
That's what you do with a slowly withdrawing hedgehog, you present few easy targets and force him to make deliberate attacks everywhere, whenever he wants to attack.
The blizzard adds +2 to every movement MP cost, a clear hex costs 1 MP to enter, entering an enemy hex costs the average Soviet unit 4 MP's as with the recent morale changes it's unlikely they'll have 56 or higher morale. Even with the shock army or Guards bonus, effective national morale is still 45 or 50 for Soviet units in 1941, as national morale is 40. Deliberate attacks cost six MP's. Any Rifle division with less than 13 MP's won't be able to make a deliberate attack. Rifle brigades need a minimum of 15 MP's. Tank brigades need their maximum of 25 MP's to be able to launch a deliberate attack.
As such, it's pretty safe to assume many Soviet units won't be capable of launching a deliberate attack when you move back a hex each turn.
Until I see someone post an AAR against a GOOD opponent, I do not accept that the only reason I'm screwed right now is a fatal flaw in my forward defenses. I accept that I could have done better, but a prepared, full-frontal assault like Von Beanie's will unhinge any defense. Someone please prove me otherwise. I have yet to see an AAR that has a successful winter defense.
Q-Ball, the best indication of why I'm saying your defensive strategy was flawed is post 155, by you, on page 6. Take a look at your defensive CV's in the screenshots. Most are below 10, or around 10. Take a look at Soviet offensive CV. They can easily get 10 when they attack with 2 stacks, or already have 10 on single stacks.
Still, knowing that and knowing that the Soviets only need 1:1 odds to force your troops to retreat, you chose to defend those positions. That's why your strategy is flawed: you're trying to accomplish the impossible, leading to unnecessary losses. You could see the problem quite clearly, as your CV's are in basically all cases lower than what the Soviets can attack you with, but you still maintained those positions.
Think about that for a few minutes whilst looking at the screenshots you posted in post 155, I think you'll see my point.