OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[CaptBeefheart]

Some interesting regional news. It looks like Vietnam may open up travel on July 1 to residents of China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Laos. Here's a piece on that: Foreigners will be welcomed in Vietnam as early as July, if…

Still, I won't be booking any tickets to Saigon as I'll be subject to a two-week quarantine upon my return to Korea. Hopefully the government here will reciprocate and we'll get a true opening between the two countries. I think bilateral agreements will be the way out of this morass.

Cheers,
CB

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

4% of the population and 25% of the death.

Other countries were not in the danger zone of the virus and the season. New Zealand and Australia were able to handle it pretty good. Some countries can not be counted on to provide accurate information such as China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia immediately come to mind. Different immunizations are also mitigating factors.

About the only thing that should be considered criminal was requiring the nursing homes and assisted living facilities to take the Covid-19 patients since they did not have the facilities nor equipment plus their staff does not have the training.

The whole seasonality thing seems to be a red herring - a hope that did not materialize. Brazil is on the equator and always hot - and it is having a devastating outbreak right now (with the sun practically overhead, just short of the summer solstice). Same with the Southern USA -Arizona, Oklahoma, and the Carolinas are on the list of major outbreaks. No help from the heat there.

Meanwhile, the virus keeps mutating and hopefully will become a mild strain that does not kill its hosts ... but I am not counting on it.

[BBfanboy]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the new outbreaks in China, centered on Beijing markets that sell fresh meats and seafoods. That is where they have been finding the virus in the products being sold ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23P20T

Interviews with Chinese vendors on TV have some of them expressing belief that the US is spreading the virus! No wonder the world is confused about everything to do with the pandemic! Too much BS being spread around deliberately or unknowingly.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

4% of the population and 25% of the death.

Other countries were not in the danger zone of the virus and the season. New Zealand and Australia were able to handle it pretty good. Some countries can not be counted on to provide accurate information such as China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia immediately come to mind. Different immunizations are also mitigating factors.

About the only thing that should be considered criminal was requiring the nursing homes and assisted living facilities to take the Covid-19 patients since they did not have the facilities nor equipment plus their staff does not have the training.

The whole seasonality thing seems to be a red herring - a hope that did not materialize. Brazil is on the equator and always hot - and it is having a devastating outbreak right now (with the sun practically overhead, just short of the summer solstice). Same with the Southern USA -Arizona, Oklahoma, and the Carolinas are on the list of major outbreaks. No help from the heat there.

Meanwhile, the virus keeps mutating and hopefully will become a mild strain that does not kill its hosts ... but I am not counting on it.

How many of those people who catch the virus in those hot climates are in air conditioned areas with little outside air exchange? That needs to be determined.

I just saw that there is a new strain in Chicago.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe




Other countries were not in the danger zone of the virus and the season. New Zealand and Australia were able to handle it pretty good. Some countries can not be counted on to provide accurate information such as China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia immediately come to mind. Different immunizations are also mitigating factors.

About the only thing that should be considered criminal was requiring the nursing homes and assisted living facilities to take the Covid-19 patients since they did not have the facilities nor equipment plus their staff does not have the training.

The whole seasonality thing seems to be a red herring - a hope that did not materialize. Brazil is on the equator and always hot - and it is having a devastating outbreak right now (with the sun practically overhead, just short of the summer solstice). Same with the Southern USA -Arizona, Oklahoma, and the Carolinas are on the list of major outbreaks. No help from the heat there.

Meanwhile, the virus keeps mutating and hopefully will become a mild strain that does not kill its hosts ... but I am not counting on it.

How many of those people who catch the virus in those hot climates are in air conditioned areas with little outside air exchange? That needs to be determined.

I just saw that there is a new strain in Chicago.

Well in Brazil's largest city, Sao Paulo, most of the victims are from the slums where they have no electricity. They have the same difficulties with nourishment, lack of clean water, lack of information and lack of access to health care as poor people around the world - so they are hit the hardest.

But the point is, air conditioners do not appear to affect the spread of the virus there. Have you heard of any studies that point to them? If so, that is something we should know.

[sPzAbt653]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the new outbreaks in China

Thanks for posting that link in #263 because I was curious myself. The first thing I thought of was:

Low standards of hygiene in wholesale food markets

Just look at the picture in the article - gross, I would never eat there, and especially not anything raw from there. Some societies really have no common sense.

[sPzAbt653]

The Baltimore BB team is a mess....not sure how long it will take to come back.

Not until the ownership changes. At this point it is a generational thing, with the elderly majority owner having handed the team over to his sons. It seems that they would rather move the team elsewhere [rumors] than sell it. The shame is that it is local ownership. Not a good reflection on an already cloudy Baltimore.

I'm sure that most of the players would like to play, it is the very strong Players Union that mucks everything up. For example, Mike Mussina took a lower contract in his first renewal in order to stay in Baltimore [the 'hometown discount' as they say]. He was harshly criticized for that by the Players Union, and when he next came up for a contract he moved on to the higher offer at New York [the Evil Empire!lol]. Currently, the Players Union wants all players to hold their ground for full pay. It's some dumbass sh1t.

[sPzAbt653]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
But I think that some people are finally get the message "When you are sick, stay home!" How many people would say "I am a good worker, I go to work even when I have a cold or the flu" when they are actually spreading it and should stay home and not share it.

But do you think that US citizens are inclined to go along with rules as long as they aren't inconvenienced? I mean, everybody stayed at home for a couple weeks then some got tired of it and went outside and started 'protesting'. A lot of other countries wouldn't have such a thing, certainly not Russia or China or N. Korea.

[sPzAbt653]

we should be ashamed of ourselves

I think like most of us that I am doing the best that I can given the limited, poor, inaccurate and often straight up wrong information that we get. I work in an 'essential' job where I am exposed to various different home and business environments every day, often in the 'high risk' areas. I take precautions that are recommended and deemed reasonable [I don't wear a hazmat suit, lol]. I am happy to have a job, many currently do not. I am not ashamed.

Shame is for the organizations that take millions of our tax dollars every year in order to research virus' and come up with plans for exactly what is happening and they have done nothing as far as I can tell. WHO said there is nothing to worry about, it won't spread. CDC says wash your hands. The Wuhan Lab is on the list, have we heard anything from them? These are shameful things.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's not a competition, but JohnD is just plain wrong. Reliability about numbers from some countries is highly suspects and for most countries marginally uncertain. But where we have people counting under lots of scrutiny (the US, Canada, Oz, Korea, Japan, Europe, etc.) the US is doing fairly well, from a per capita standpoint. If the US should be ashamed, then what does that say about countries that have suffered far greater losses, to this point? We're doing okay under novel circumstances, as are most countries - at least, doing the best we know how to do. Folks have tried it lots of different ways with no clear-cut winner. Since indefinite lockdowns aren't an option, now nearly all countries are trying phased re-opening. There's no shame for the US or any other country, possibly excepting China if the country actually did suppress info that had an affect on transmittal.

so we don't have 4% of the Worlds population and 25% of the death? I'm using Johns Hopkins numbers, which most folks round here found a fairly good barometer. OK, do you have a better source? Johns Hopkins has always been the gold standard for such things and made their bones during the Spanish Flu epidemic but if you have a more credible and reliable source I'm all ears. Are they perfect? no, are hey better than everybody else? Probably. Shall we just compare to Western Europe. That seems reasonable. Look where Germany, France, Italy , Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands and Switzerland to name a few are compared to where they were 6 weeks ago. Now Look at the United States? Who flattened the curve more? What did they do different? They waited just a bit longer to open their economies. Now they are in much better shape than us. Again I ask......What is the plan to get rid of this thing in the United States? What are the better data sources? Are we not 4% off the Worlds population? Did we not suffer a disproportion amount of death compared to other western democracies?

[fcooke]

JD - we can argue the numbers till the cows come home (I have no cows). I think what is clear is that some high density areas are getting hit hard (NYC, San Palao), but others are not. It will take some time to figure how that came to pass. But IMO anyone claiming to know the 'truth' at this point is just a talking head.

And thanks for your service. The folks down there need it.

[Canoerebel]

Here are the seven-day rolling averages for (1) US mortality, and (2) US cases.

Mortality is steadily declining since reaching a peak of about 2.1k/day around April 20 - now down to about 0.67k/day.

Active cases have been steady or rising, probably due to increases in testing.

So, despite the easing of countermeasures, mortality has been declining steadily. The easing has been the right "plan," by this measure.

[JohnDillworth]

Thanks Dan. We need to argue numbers. This is not a politics and opinion problem. This is a science and math problem and in s science and math numbers matter

[Admiral DadMan]

Gentle reminder: take care with your comments. Certain comments are meandering close to what got the first thread shut down.

Please resume your normal navigation.

[sPzAbt653]

The whole seasonality thing seems to be a red herring

This is interesting, because I am one of those that think that preparing for another outbreak in the fall would be prudent. Then I think about the points you wisely bring up, but there are other influences such as what you also bring up about Sao Paulo in #265. To that I would add 'How much worse would it be in those areas if the weather were cooler and drier?'.

Meanwhile, the leading story on local talk radio this morning is that spikes are happening 'everywhere' and they are questioning all the opening of businesses. I wonder if this is true news or just the media hyping as stated in other posts?

[Canoerebel]

IMO, the news media has essentially lost its mind. What little confidence I had in the media when this began in February has long since evaporated.

The two charts given above are good thumbnails for the situation in the US.

The spikes occurring here and there seem to be tied to increases in testing since there hasn't been a corresponding increase in mortality (yet, anyway). Even with the big Memorial Day outings and the protest gatherings and all the countermeasure easing, mortality has been steadily declining.

The charts are consistent with what most European countries have experienced, though they have been about a week or two ahead of us, both in onset, maturation and decline.

There are some really odd anomolies out there. Germany we've noted before (I'm still unsure how to account for it's success, given the situation in neighboring/similar countries). Spain is really strange - suddenly, zero mortality for weeks. I don't know what's going on there but the numbers seem wonky until there's a good explanation. How did Spain go from epidemic to sustained "zilch" when every other country has had a long, stubborn residual tail? Doesn't make sense, but I haven't delved into it nor have I seen explanations (I've been focused mainly on my state and the US for the past few weeks).

[Canoerebel]

Tracking closely to the situation in the US, new cases in my county are rising but hospitalizations and mortality are falling. (As I noted yesterday, my county reached 15 deaths total in late May and we haven't had another since.)

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Spain is really strange - suddenly, zero mortality for weeks. I don't know what's going on there but the numbers seem wonky until there's a good explanation. How did Spain go from epidemic to sustained "zilch" when every other country has had a long, stubborn residual tail? Doesn't make sense, but I haven't delved into it nor have I seen explanations (I've been focused mainly on my state and the US for the past few weeks).

Months and months ago I posted some charts and data in the other thread, and then ran the math. It proved they were lying about testing. Complete fantasy numbers. I wouldn't believe anything that comes from the Spanish government, at least with respect to Covid.

[Canoerebel]

I was just looking at Spain's reported numbers. Apparently (per Worldometers) there was a subtraction of 1,915 deaths one May 25, an addition of 280 on May 26, and not a single death since then. Going by the wonkiness of those numbers, I'd guess Spain redefined what counts as a Covid death.

[sPzAbt653]

Why the Second Wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu Was So Deadly
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-fl ... resurgence

Different strains at different times and in different areas. Drat, I can't locate an article I quoted in another thread concerning different strains in different areas in 1918-1919, such as Chicago and New York, causing different results. Therefore I can't put faith in numbers.

Shouldn't the focus be on preventing any deaths, which I know is impossible but should be the goal of anyone that works in the field of protecting humans. I don't think we should be satisfied washing hands and staying six feet apart and wearing masks [don't get me wrong, all good preventative measures]. We should be looking into Air Quality and especially the Air Quality in indoor facilities. I've heard not one mention of this, most of those in charge seem to publicly be of the opinion that this virus will 'go away'. Not a very 2020 attitude. Maybe instead of dishing out billions to keep workers idle, send them back to work and give the billions to businesses to install state of the art Air Filtration and Circulation Systems. [:)] A typical restaurant circulates the same air, so one infected person breathing out millions of virus around their table will eventually have those virus sucked up into the ventilation and spread throughout the restaurant, infecting everyone. [:(]