Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel

[Local Yokel]

@Herbiesan - I don't understand what he hoped to achieve by pushing that light carrier so far forward, unless there's something much nastier following behind, and the CVL was intended as bait. He seemed to be operating in a similar way to the time he sent Enterprise towards Espiritu Santo for a raid on Luganville. The raid achieved nothing and Enterprise got ambushed by the KB. But Jonathan is not a fool and I would expect him to have learned from that, so I remain suspicious that something else is afoot.

@BigBaba - Most of the mapwork is done using Paint.Net, which is indeed free [:)], and obtainable from this site. Actually I still use the built in MS Paint program for some editing, particularly for cut and paste work to set the map up in the first place. Then I add the arrows and text using Paint.Net - the arrows are especially good because you can pull them around as required, since they work as Bezier curves.

Beware using a really vivid red colour! If you want to upload to this forum you need to save the graphic in JPEG format, and in my experience you get bad 'colour bleed' and loss of sharpness of bright red elements when you convert the file to JPEG. Paint.Net can help you to reduce this somewhat, but I find you still get better results by using a slightly pinker hue. Think the same is probably true of bright greens.

With all the excitement off Farallon de Pajaros I've overlooked reports of things taking place on the other side of the Empire. The lead elements of XIV Army have now arrived at Mandalay, so I shall start to bombard them to force expenditure of their supplies. I think there must be a major supply airlift going on at Imphal, judging by the number of 'auxiliary' aircraft based there - over 300 a/c on the field, which makes it a tempting target.

At Daly Waters, he is trying to work a small unit round my flank on the east side of the base, so I shall have to attend to that. Meanwhile I managed to de-fang another raid on the airfield whilst at the same time delivering an effective blow against the Americal Div's troops there with 80+ Donryu bombers.

But the best news is that at long last the end came at Sabang. I'd been repeatedly hitting the surviving unit, 2nd British ID, with attacks by 1st Reserve Tk Rgt in order to keep his disruption levels high whilst allowing the other units a day or two's rest before resuming the attack. A useful bonus of doing this has been to push up the experience level of these second line tank men nicely. V. Adm Komatsu took over command of the Bengaru-wan Yugeki Butai and delivered a series of bombardments with the BYB's two Fuso class BB's and cruisers, but the results didn't appear to be spectacular. And Army and Navy bombers deigned to drop some bombs on the British every few days. Eventually I got a hunch that the defenders were probably on their last legs and put in deliberate attacks on two days consecutively - and that did the trick!

06/04/43
Naval bombardment of Sabang, at 19,41
Japanese Ships
CA Mikuma
CA Nachi
CA Takao
BB Yamashiro
BB Fuso
Allied ground losses:
210 casualties reported
=============================================
06/04/43
Day Air attack on 2nd British Division, at 19,41
Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 25
G4M2 Betty x 24
No Japanese losses
Allied ground losses:
106 casualties reported
Aircraft Attacking:
19 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
24 x G4M2 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
6 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
=============================================
06/04/43
Ground combat at Sabang
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 43940 troops, 160 guns, 80 vehicles, Assault Value = 892
Defending force 5923 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 74
Japanese max assault: 816 - adjusted assault: 1126
Allied max defense: 38 - adjusted defense: 5
Japanese assault odds: 225 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
296 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
299 casualties reported
=============================================
06/05/43
Day Air attack on 2nd British Division, at 19,41
Japanese aircraft
Ki-49 Helen x 53
No Japanese losses
Allied ground losses:
30 casualties reported
Aircraft Attacking:
25 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 6000 feet
14 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 6000 feet
14 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 6000 feet
=============================================
06/05/43
Ground combat at Sabang
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 43572 troops, 155 guns, 78 vehicles, Assault Value = 876
Defending force 5465 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 56
Japanese max assault: 799 - adjusted assault: 905
Allied max defense: 29 - adjusted defense: 5
Japanese assault odds: 181 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
218 casualties reported
Guns lost 3
Allied ground losses:
12011 casualties reported [8D]
Guns lost 50
=============================================

Dispensing with those high quality British infantrymen did the VP total a power of good, and actually made a perceptible difference to the VP ratio for a change. Now to deal with those pesky Australians on the Andamans. [:D]

[Local Yokel]

Still going forward slowly - real life has been holding back both of us, but this seems an opportune moment to record what happened after the initial exchange off Farallon de Pajaros.

The Battle of Farallon de Pajaros - Aftermath, 6 to 14 June 1943

Two thousand four hundred miles distant from the nearest friendly airfield is a perilous place in which to find yourself if you’re part of a naval force that has just been stripped of its carrier air cover. Thoughts such as these must go through the mind of many a US sailor as they watch USS Princeton disappear beneath the waves following the Japanese strikes on 6 June 1943.

Loss of Princeton is not the only source of Allied woe. Unsurprisingly, destroyer Stanly sinks immediately from the three torpedo strikes she receives, whilst from anti-aircraft cruiser San Juan a dirty brown column of smoke rises to stain the vivid blue Pacific sky, marking the damage she received from two bomb hits delivered by Japanese carrier dive bombers. Captain James Maher blinkers to the TG commander that his vessel is good for no better than 10 knots; San Juan will have to fend for herself as she trails the remainder of the force, progressively falling further astern as her undamaged consorts depart the scene.

Zuikaku, largely the author of this mischief, bears rapidly away on a south-westerly course towards Koror in the Palaus following her successful strike, for Combined Fleet is determined not to hazard the precious carrier in torpedo water, confident that US submarines will immediately be vectored into the area.

The Allied survivors take up a course of 120 degrees, attempting to edge their way out of range of further strikes by the Japanese torpedo bombers based on Chichijima. This, however, brings them significantly closer to Japanese aerodromes in the Southern Marianas, where they are awaited eagerly by Shinzan four-engined bombers of the 1st and Takao Kokutai. By daybreak on 7 June they have advanced only three hundred miles towards safe haven and are beset by a series of further air attacks originating from Saipan and Guam.

In the first of these, the low flying Shinzan obtain two hits on heavy cruiser Minneapolis, but it is during the second attack that the Japanese deliver a mortal blow. Five more 250 kilo armour piercing bombs strike the vessel, and one slices its way deep into its vitals, touching off a magazine explosion that is the ship’s death warrant.

In the afternoon the Shinzan return. Ten of them find the destroyers that had been escorting Minneapolis. Despite the escorts’ violent evasive manoeuvres, the bombers succeed in hitting Radford and Saufley with one bomb apiece. Meanwhile, 60 miles astern, San Juan is located by two shotai of the big bombers. Her capacity to evade already compromised by the damage sustained in the initial carrier strike, the cruiser takes three more hits, yet even this does not suffice to sink her, though her speed is now reduced to little more than four knots.

For reasons that do not become apparent until later the American commander has detached destroyer Strong, which is proceeding ahead of the main body and has achieved a position 60 miles east of the site of Minneapolis’ destruction. Nine Shinzan find Strong on 7 June, but on this day she nimbly evades all bombs dropped against her.

By the following day, 8 June, damaged Radford and Saufley have advanced another 240 miles but are still well within Shinzan range. However, a raid of 5 aircraft attack Saufley without success, for now the Japanese aircrew are suffering from the fatigue of repeated missions. This same day a Chichijima-based Type 1 bomber locates the still undamaged destroyer Strong. Significantly, this ship is on a diverging track from the remnants of the main force: whilst it appears that the two damaged destroyers will take their chances in the big gap between Brown Island and Minamitori Shima, Strong seems now to be making for refuge in the Aleutians.

Now it is the turn of Ugaki Matome’s Dai-yon Kido Butai to lend a hand. Despatched from their Karafuto anchorage immediately the American striking group was detected on 5 June, Ugaki’s three light carriers have been hurrying south to the attack, and although Strong evades all air searches on 9 June, the Japanese are confident they can effect an interception based upon her observed rate of advance. To assist in this Cdr Koizumi’s Kinagawa Maru, with eight Type 0 Reconnaissance Seaplanes embarked, heads north at maximum speed from south of Minamitori Shima to a search position 350 miles NE of that island.

The Japanese calculations are in error! Destroyer Strong has altered again to an ESE heading, and one of Koizumi’s aircraft locates her on the morning of 10 June just 60 miles west of his ship and on a converging course! But Dai-yon Kido Butai is now within strike range, and a frantic exchange of signals leads to the urgent launch of two waves, each composed of 11 torpedo armed Tenzan (how the Japanese would have relished such a real-life capability!) The SuiTei that spotted Strong has remained in contact and the Japanese strike groups are homed inexorably upon the US ship. The first wave’s strike suffices: Strong is hit by three torpedoes and sinks immediately. When the second wave arrives all that remains is a knot of survivors clinging to a pair of rafts, surrounded by debris bobbing sluggishly on swells heavily fouled by fuel oil from the destroyer’s shattered bunkers.

Meanwhile, Maher’s San Juan has been limping slowly eastwards, weathering further air attacks each day. On 8 June she is attacked by a lone Shinzan, on the 9th by a further three – in both cases the Japanese bombers miss, observing on the second occasion that the cruiser’s fires have now been extinguished. But her luck cannot hold. On 10 June San Juan receives a further mass attack by 37 refreshed Rikkos operating from Chichijima. Almost immediately she is struck by two torpedoes. It is more than enough; the majority of the bombers circle with weapons still within their bomb bays as the cruiser leans tiredly onto her beam ends and slips beneath the surface.

So far, the Japanese bombers have been unable to administer the coup-de-grace to destroyers Radford and Saufley, but the two surviving US ships are still far from refuge. On 9 June Saufley again comes under attack from Saipan’s Shinzan bombers, who succeed in scoring a single hit upon her, though apparently with little effect, as later events are to demonstrate.

By 10 June the Saipan bombers’ bolt is shot. Still on an ESE course, the surviving US destroyers remain free from attack this day, but they are unable to evade the Japanese search effort. One of the big flying boats, a 2-shiki Taitei operating from Minamitori Shima, finds them in the forenoon watch and spends several hours orbiting just outside the range of the small formation’s guns as it ploughs eastward under leaden skies. On the following day the pattern is repeated, with the sole difference that this time it is one of Minamitori Shima’s SuiTei that first makes contact.

The Japanese note the US ships’ steady course and rate of advance, and direct their search effort accordingly. On 12 June the destroyers are again located without difficulty, but now the Japanese observe with interest that they have parted company, with Saufley drawing away from wounded sister Radford. Surprisingly it seems that both vessels are making directly for Wake Island – it is possible they have news of Strong’s demise at the hands of Ugaki’s carrier aircraft and hope their more southerly course will take them clear of Japanese clutches.

It is not to be. Wake Island’s facilities have been improved, and in anticipation of the fleeing ships’ arrival the Japanese have flown in a search contingent from the Bihoro Ku and the full strength of the Chitose Ku’s 1st detachment, all equipped with torpedo-carrying land attack aircraft. The bombers do not launch until 13 June, by which time the US destroyers are within the 200 miles ring. Saufley, apparently little damaged, has sprinted past Wake in the darkness and is found more than 150 miles east of the island. Eleven Rikkos go in to the attack on her, securing four torpedo hits; more than enough to ensure her destruction. Radford is luckier: although she is moving more slowly the six aircraft despatched against her make only one successful drop, but this inflicts additional damage sufficient to ensure her loss. One day later and she has made it past Wake, successfully evading a picket line of surface and submarine units, but on 14 June the Rikkos return. This time there are twenty-four of them, an exercise in overkill, for the damaged destroyer is already in no state to evade their attacks, and, as with San Juan, the majority find they are left with no target as four Type 91’s from the early arrivals find their mark.

And so, seven days after the US force was initially seen to approach the gap between the Northern Marianas and the Kazan-rettô, every one of its seven detected ships now lies on the floor of the Pacific, for a gain of just three Japanese strike aircraft and their crews. At Combined Fleet’s post-mortem the staff shake their head in puzzlement. What did the Americans hope to achieve? Was this a raid intended to spread confusion and alarm on the Empire’s trade routes? With no more than a dozen strike aircraft, surely not. A probe, perhaps, to examine the efficacy of the Japanese air search net – if so it seems to have been a test passed with distinction.

“It is as if the Americans considered themselves under an obligation to seek out their own death, in the way of the warrior,” reflects Cpt Watanabe Yasuji. “But that is our way, rather than the way of the gaijin.”

“The time may yet come when our own ships must face such fearful odds,” responds a sombre Yamamoto. “But mark this: the Americans sought to penetrate a gap in our defences no wider than six hundred miles. From Midway to the Aleutians the gap is greater than fourteen hundred miles. You could readily slip the whole of the Imperial Navy through such a gulf and not a single American would know. And beyond would lie exposed the entire western seaboard of the United States. Geography does not always work against us.”

[Local Yokel]

Review of Japan’s Position - June 1943

With the end of June 1943 now drawing near in our game, here is a review of the current state of the Great East Asian War from Japan’s perspective.

Economically, Japan is probably in as good a condition as could be hoped. About 2.9M units of oil are stockpiled within the home islands, sufficient to cover industry’s requirements for a full year without additional imports. Accumulated supplies exceed 4.2M units – if anything, more needs to be done to move quantities of these outwards from their point of production to likely points of consumption, but all bases that function as major distribution points for supply carry more than enough stock to meet current demand, with more in transit. Raw materials for industry are still something of a problem, as there seem never to be enough of these at the industrial heart of the Empire to provide a reach exceeding 30 – 40 days, but this is simply because the home economy is operating at a rate that consumes such materials as fast as they are generated elsewhere in the Empire.

In the early part of June numerous ground reinforcement units were raised. This had the effect of reducing armament stockpiles from a high point of 52,600 units on 1 June to a low point of 34,770 units on 24 June. Immediately before the reinforcements’ arrival the armaments factories were mostly standing idle, with production emphasis being placed upon manufacture of Type 3 tanks to fill the inventories of the 2nd and 3rd Tank Divisions. The 1st Tank Division in Manchukuo received its Type 3’s some time ago, and the 3rd Tank Division, having been released from China and now in transit to the south, is due to receive its complement of the new AFV’s upon arrival at its destination. Given a TOE of 177 per tank division of these vehicles, the presence in the pool of 349 of them means that there is an ample stock available for this refit. With vehicle production requirements covered, it has been possible to stand their production down and reinstate that of the armaments factories to make good the depletion of stockpiles that has resulted from the June reinforcements.

Aircraft production seems similarly healthy, with a pool of more than 10,000 machines available to make good losses. If anything, there has been significant over-production of some of the older aircraft in anticipation of losses that never took place. The switch of aero engine factories to cover the new power plant designs continues smoothly, with about 1260 Nissan/Adv Mitsubishi engines stockpiled despite the output of more than 500 J2M Raiden interceptors.

Japan’s merchant marine has so far suffered the loss of just 24 freighters to hostilities. Policy has been to build only high capacity or fast merchantmen, and a number of these have been salted away against the evil day when an Allied submarine campaign begins to bite. However, the Allies have still to sink their first tramp steamer laden with materials for Honshu’s factories.

Aside from two light cruisers lost largely through careless execution of Centrifugal operations, the navy has yet to lose a major warship, and although it has lost 11 destroyers to date, their place has been taken by new construction of more capable vessels.

But the militarists of Nippon can be under no illusions. There will be no further major expansion of her industrial base, and her leaders’ task now is to protect and conserve her assets as best they may against the coming threat of strategic air attack. For as long as they feasibly can they will do so by denying their enemies the airfield sites from which such an attack can be mounted. They have already sought to lay the groundwork for this defensive effort by avoiding excessive acquisitions of conquered territory. They have aimed instead to establish a perimeter that mitigates a shortfall in sufficient forces for its defence that is all too obvious. In practice, this has meant occupation of the Irrawaddy Basin in the west, Australia’s Northern Territory in the south, and Attu Island in the north. By holding these positions they aim to deny their enemies bases from which long range bombers can hit Palembang from the west, Borneo and Java from Australia, or Hokkaido from the north.

In the Pacific, the Japanese preference had been to fight a delaying action up the Solomon chain, failing which they would sell dearly their holdings in the Mandates. However, a defence of the Marshalls looks increasingly unattractive, given the likely piecemeal loss of the defending units involved. Consequently, the revised Japanese plan is to fight hard on the eastern fringe of the Carolines for long enough to effect safe withdrawal of their assets further south. If the Americans now choose to come through the Mandates, the Japanese will seek to delay such an advance by fostering a belief that a series of contested atoll assaults must be made for which the attackers must take time to prepare. In a few cases such prepared assaults will, in fact, still be necessary. The defenders will seize any chance they can to inflict worthwhile material losses on their opponents as any such advance proceeds, but commitment to a full blooded counter-attack may only take place at a point further west unless the opportunity to inflict a major reverse unexpectedly presents itself.

The Japanese have had a full year in which to ready the defences of their outer perimeter. As a consequence, the majority of their outer bases have now been fortified to the maximum extent required. Now, the Japanese engineering contingents are falling back towards the interior of the Empire in order to ready the defences in these areas too, with enhancements to the Philippine bases now gathering pace.

The Allied comeback by means of amphibious operations has proved a costly exercise. A premature grab for atolls in the Gilberts in 1942 was repulsed with little difficulty. The recapture of the New Hebrides was achieved with heavy losses of merchant ships. The same was true of 1943 Allied operations in the Bay of Bengal, where an absence of concentration permitted Japan to hold her ground and ultimately destroy two of the three invading forces. The third such force remains trapped in the Andamans and is an obvious candidate for elimination. This was largely due to a significant reduction in RN carrier strength as a result of casualties to overstretched naval forces covering the three separate landings, and Japan’s consequent ability to retain sea control within a large part of the Bay. In turn, this has permitted the landing of substantial reinforcements at Port Blair as a preliminary to reduction of the stranded Allied assault forces, including the elite Australian 7th Division.

[Local Yokel]

Burma

Here, however, the first complication in the Japanese plans intrudes. The reinforcements landed at Port Blair are short of support, and they need the presence of a corps level HQ for efficient direction of operations to destroy the invaders. Elements of 28th Army HQ have been flown in to the island, but the main body of this formation is still entangled in the defence of Mandalay, awaiting relief by 15th Army before it can be released for duty in the Andamans. This will delay finishing the job in the Andamans, and that gives time for a crisis to develop in Burma which could otherwise be met by the forces at Port Blair.

Faced with a choice of maintaining a diminishing stranglehold on supplies to China over the Ledo Road (prematurely constructed!) or avoidance of encirclement at Myitkyina, the Japanese opted for the latter. The Myitkyina garrison fell back on Mandalay unmolested, leisurely followed by the British and Indian forces that had threatened to pocket them by a crossing of the Chindwin immediately north of Mandalay. Here the Allied forces have gathered their strength for a confrontation with the Japanese, launching their first assault upon the defences on 22 June 1943. At a cost of 6000 casualties the level of those defences was reduced to 8, giving the Japanese hope that in the medium term their position here can be held, provided they are able to rotate and refit in Rangoon units damaged in the course of defensive operations:

06/22/43
Ground combat at Mandalay
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 78934 troops, 602 guns, 524 vehicles, Assault Value = 1748
Defending force 91740 troops, 504 guns, 177 vehicles, Assault Value = 1900
Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 8
Allied max assault: 1742 - adjusted assault: 802
Japanese max defense: 1863 - adjusted defense: 5055
Allied assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 8)
Japanese ground losses:
512 casualties reported
Guns lost 25
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
6001 casualties reported
Guns lost 124
Vehicles lost 9

But there is a developing crisis on the left flank of the Japanese position in Burma in the shape of an advance upon Akyab through the Arakan. To meet this the Japanese have but a single division – 56th – entrenched at Akyab. Fortifications are at level 6, but realistically the Japanese prospects for hanging on here look very slim unless the Allies unexpectedly fail to commit sufficient forces to accomplish the task. And with Akyab gone, not only is Southern Burma exposed to escorted aerial attack, but the Japanese position at Mandalay is effectively rendered untenable due to the threat to its communications along the line Rangoon-Magwe. In practice this seems likely to compel abandonment of a Japanese position west of the Salween by the end of 1943, and a satisfactory plan permitting retention of Japanese holdings north of Rangoon has yet to be found.

[Local Yokel]

North Australia

In North Australia the Japanese position appears to be more secure. Here the Allies have to take their chances in further amphibious operations against the Lesser Sundas or Australia’s NW coast, or they have to accept a single line of overland advance along the road leading north to Darwin from Alice Springs. So far they have opted only for an overland advance, and now find themselves beating against a fully fortified base at Daly Waters, with equally strong fortifications further north at Katherine and Darwin to be overcome thereafter. Here the Allies have committed the Americal Division and 2nd Australian Infantry Division, a militia formation, to the attack proper upon the base, whilst a number of militia brigades and minor units hold flank positions presumably intended to frustrate a repeat of the successful Japanese sally from their fortress in December 1942. Immediately south of Daly Waters SW Pacific HQ has come forward to support and sustain the attack, indicating that this is regarded by the Allies as a major thrust line. However, with three full divisions deployed in rear of Daly Waters, the Japanese at present perceive no insurmountable threat to their positions in Australia.

[Local Yokel]

China

China has proved to be an interesting theatre of operations. The ultimate Japanese objective is similar to that allotted to the original Ichi-go: to deny the Allies airfields in the south/east of China from which effective air attacks can be launched either against the home islands or against the coastwise shipping routes in the South China Sea. Any resulting destruction of Chinese ground forces will be a welcome bonus.

Clearly the threat to Chinese forces occupying positions at Kanhsien and the approaches to Nanchang has now been recognised, as the majority of the units that had been based at Kanhsien have now moved out of the base in a NE direction, leaving a single unit numbering about 9500 men as garrison. What cannot be known (a shortcoming remedied by AE) is the current direction of travel of the marching Chinese units. Their most likely destination would seem to be Changsha, where the Japanese have just opened their offensive against the city, but another possibility is a continuation of the march to the north-east, their objective being to expel the single Japanese unit 60 miles east of Changsha, which is blocking the retreat path of the Nanchang attackers. The blocking force consists of nothing more than a modest SNLF unit, and if not reinforced it is likely to be brushed aside by the Kanhsien units, however emaciated for want of supply those units may be. A division is marching south from the Yangtse to provide such reinforcement, but its ability to intervene in sufficient time remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, mindful of their previous loss of a tank regiment that thrust prematurely across the Hwang Ho, the Japanese have with much trepidation pushed another tank regiment across the Yangtse tributary immediately to the NE of Hengchow. However, preparations for the river crossing included the massing at Hankow of the bulk of the JAAF’s air transport units. As soon as the tanks were across the river, the Mongol Cavalry Division (a surprisingly high quality unit released from the Kwantung Army) was flown en masse to the crossing point, along with some additional support from 7th Air Division and a small detachment from 2nd Mongolian Cavalry Division. This latter unit then conducted a minor probe to the NW in the direction of Kweiyang, with the intention of further interdicting Chinese supply lines to Changsha and the salient beyond.

The Japanese hope is that the river crossing and its exploitation north of Hengchow will, in combination with interdiction of Chinese supply lines further west at Liuchow, so throttle the quantity of supplies reaching Changsha and the salient as to ease the capture of Changsha and subsequent destruction of the troops pocketed as a consequence. If the Japanese can take Changsha and compel the Chinese to abandon their positions just west of Nanchang, the road from Nanchang to Changsha should be opened and the vulnerability of Japanese forces to counter-attack across the Yangtse from the Ichang area brought to an end. This would then leave substantial Japanese forces in possession of the river crossing north of Hengchow/Changsha, and in a position to thrust west towards Kweiyang. Potentially this exposes to encirclement the whole south wing of the Chinese army in its positions between Liuchow and Hengchow.

On 26 June 1943 the Japanese open the offensive against Changsha with their first attack upon the city:

Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 114997 troops, 611 guns, 12 vehicles, Assault Value = 2507
Defending force 42240 troops, 190 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1079
Japanese max assault: 2490 - adjusted assault: 2587
Allied max defense: 1141 - adjusted defense: 1658
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 9)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 8
Japanese ground losses:
2015 casualties reported
Guns lost 32
Vehicles lost 2
Allied ground losses:
954 casualties reported
Guns lost 14.

[Local Yokel]

Despite the best efforts of our email system to prevent us from doing so, we have at last reached the end of June 1943, so here is my usual set of end-of-month reports, beginning with the economy.

More fighters than you can shake a stick at, with the pool of Model 22 Reisen about to be swelled as they are made redundant by the Model 52 - the A6M5 - which advanced its into-production date by one month during the course of June. Would be nice to be able to do the same with the Type 4 Hayate; I live in hope.

Quite a lot of aircraft factories have production shut off, so what you see here reflects capacity rather than actual production.

Both supply and oil levels looking pretty healthy. Resources holding up OK, but I've continued to rein in heavy industry production as otherwise resources get consumed at a rate significantly faster than they are generated, notwithstanding that there now remain only 87 damaged resource centres in the Empire, compared with about 17,000 that are building.

As can be seen, the armaments pool took quite a tumble from 56K to 36K, due to the substantial number of reinforcements received during the month. Still, there were sufficient stocks in hand to ensure that all the new units arrived at full establishment.

Just 30 Toyoda/Adv Nakajima engine factories yet to repair, split between two sites, so the production lines will all be ready to go on 1st August.

[Local Yokel]

The Tracker view of the economy. For the time being I have all vehicle production shut off, since the pools are well-stocked, and I want to rebuild a respectable cushion of armament points. This is being done so that no newly arriving unit goes short whilst I simultaneously ensure that there is ample equipment to make good losses sustained in the field by existing units.

I think the Tracker graphical presentation well illustrates the point that unless you have done something silly it's armaments and ships that gobble by far the most HI points, with aircraft and aero engine production making only modest demands.

[Local Yokel]

Next comes shipping losses during the month.

This must be the first month of the conflict in which Japan suffers no such loss. Not one. A rather different picture for the other side, however, as the USN loses 45 ships and the other Allied powers another 9. Most of the latter resulted from a devastating carrier strike from Yamaguchi's 2KB, when a convoy of empty ships returning to Africa from Chittagong strayed too far east during their transit of the Bay of Bengal. 2KB had been covering the landing of major reinforcements in the Andamans, and it was simplicity to calculate the convoy's rate of advance and take up the optimum ambush position. One cripple, Empire Strength, survived two days before going down off Madras.

In the early part of the month Marshalls-based land attack planes accounted for a number of ships taking part in the Allied capture of Abemama, and there followed the curious foray of CVL Princeton and her task group to the point of her destruction north of Farallon de Pajaros. This battle, that at Abemama and the Bay of Bengal ambush account for virtually all the sinkings by Type 91 aerial torpedo, making it the primary ship killer of the month, but there's also a respectable number of sinkings by its 21" stablemate, the Type 95, indicating that Japanese submarines are still playing a worthwhile part in writing down Allied shipping.

I had a small patrol line in the gap between Johnston and Palmyra, and was lucky enough to fall in more than once with convoys on a direct route to Kanton Island - not much sign of evasive routing here on my opponent's part. Lt Cdr Kishigami's minelayer, I-124, happened to be lying off Kanton at the time (since it's where a number of major Allied warships are currently located) and I attempted to sow the approaches with mines just as one of the Allied convoys was due to arrive. I got a hit too, but not, as I hoped, a fat merchantman but rather insignificant prey in the shape of subchaser 645. Strangely, there's been no sign of an Allied attempt to clear these mines, so I still hold out hopes of Kishigami's field claiming another victim.

Two ships sank on 29 June: Beaverhead and Phoebe Hearst. One of them was carrying a fighter group of 24 P-38's. That was a good note on which to end the month.

[Local Yokel]

Now for the Intelligence Summary for the month.

Nothing particularly dramatic here. A very slight increase in ops losses - perhaps I'm gettig careless. Ground force losses substantially similar to those in May on both sides.

The most significant difference from May is the rise air losses. I lost 50 more than in the previous month; he lost an extra 200. Curiously, the ratio of air-to-air losses remained exactly the same notwithstanding the increased intensity of the air war, with the scoring rate remaining at 4 to 1 in my favour. NikMod provides a very different 'feel' to aerial warfare compared with the stock game, but I think I may be getting the hang of it.

[Local Yokel]

To amplify on the air war a bit, here is a side by side comparison of Japanese pilot stats for May and June.

From my viewpoint, the good news is that both the JAAF and JNAF have gained a point of average experience. Only for patrol plane aircrew has there been a drop in that average, easily explained by the arrival of an inexperienced new unit flying the big Type 2 flying boats. I have put them well behind the front lines where they can train up but still do useful search work.

The bad news is that the growth in experience comes at the price of over 50 pilots' loss, with 20 of these coming from the ranks of the fighter pilots. With more and better Allied machines coming forward, things are sure to get worse for Japan in this respect. Accepting that some level of pilot attrition is unavoidable, the big question for me is whether I am keeping it sufficiently low to sustain a large enough number of high quality pilots at the point of contact. Both considerations seem to me to be vital: if there are either an insufficient number of fighters aloft or their crews are of insufficient experience then the Japanese are going to get hammered. By sufficient experience I mean 75+.

Currently the JAAF is holding its own over N. Australia, largely because the Allied air forces can only operate from Tennant Creek and Alice Springs. Over Burma, I am not maintaining a fighter presence over Mandalay, the principal Allied target, because SEAC can fly sweeps against any defenders I put up from multiple bases on any day. I may hold my own against the first few such sweeps, but if the last sweep in the sequence is flown by the AVG and/or Spits then I expect to suffer disproportionate losses to my fatigued interceptors.

[Local Yokel]

To complete the month-end reports and my thoughts on the air war, I'll post a couple of tables to illustrate air losses. First I show fighter losses in descending order of loss to aerial combat. I haven't totted these up but I think they show a very favourable ratio of Japanese fighter losses to Allied, and I suspect this is currently still running at 2:1 or better in favour of Japan despite the fact that the Japanese are now almost always going up against equal or better quality aircraft. The only way I can achieve this is by picking my fights and by keeping pilot quality high.

The poor old Type 1 Hayabusa has suffered more losses than any other type, but this is very much a reflection of its extensive use for operational training of the greenhorns, with much higher accident rates than those sustained by front line units, which I nurse intensively.

Interesting to note that the vaunted F4U isn't indestructible, though I suspect that for the time being I am receiving the benefit of coming up against a single, relatively inexperienced unit of these aircraft flying from Tennant Creek.

[Local Yokel]

Finally, a table showing level bomber losses, this time in descending order of losses to all causes.

I find it salutary to take a look at this chart now and again to remind myself that the Japanese can bring down the 'heavy babies'. That's 48 Fortresses and 326 Liberator variants brought down by defending fighters, leaving aside their other sources of loss.

[Local Yokel]

Watch this space...

[1275psi]

Nick Mod - the corsair is nerfed a lot
You are doing well!

Long live the empire!

[Local Yokel]

The impression I get is that Japan probably benefits more than the Allies from the reduced bloodiness in general of Nik Mod aerial combat, but his Corsairs haven't yet had an opportunity to show what they can do when employed en masse. I shall do what I can to deny him that opportunity for as long as I can.

False alarm in the Solomons so far. That 'diversionary force' was one that had been given 'retirement allowed' orders and had been overlooked, so I am told. Maybe that's so, maybe it's not, but that build-up of task forces in Espiritu Santo is a very strong signal that things are about to get lively here. I also got two 'radio transmissions detected' intelligence reports from one hex east of Espiritu within the last week or so. Useful Japanese intelligence, for a change! These and other indicators seem to point a major amphibious operation taking place in the near future, although I can only guess at the objective for the time being.

Elsewhere, 1st Australian Motor Brigade made an attempt to work its way round the west flank of the Japanese positions at Daly Waters. A regiment from 2nd Division was waiting to meet them and attacked as soon as the Australians advanced to contact. The Japanese attack, preceded by an effective raid by Darwin's Donryu, immediately sent them packing:

07/01/43
Day Air attack on 1st Australian Motor Brigade, at 34,89
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 8
Ki-49 Helen x 94
Ki-46-III Dinah x 2
No Japanese losses
Allied ground losses:
275 casualties reported
Guns lost 3
Aircraft Attacking:
23 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 5000 feet
...

Ground combat at 34,89
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 7399 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 166
Defending force 2659 troops, 6 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 81
Japanese max assault: 142 - adjusted assault: 152
Allied max defense: 44 - adjusted defense: 3
Japanese assault odds: 50 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
35 casualties reported
Allied ground losses:
154 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

So far, XIV Army has made no further attack against Mandalay's defences, and despite some damage done by continuing air raids against Japanese installations there, the Allies' efforts are being 'out-engineered' by the mass of engineering units who are frantically attempting to rebuild the defences. 'Mass', of course, is relative: for the Japanese, a large number of engineers are being used - the Allies would probably regard them as the merest bauble.

Still, leaving aside that worrying advance in the Arakan, the Japanese position looks OK for the moment. I may well take a different view of things when I find out where those 4 US Marine Divisions he keeps banging on about have decided to make a nuisance of themselves.

[Local Yokel]

Changsha taken – China, July 1943

The 13th Japanese Army, under command of Lt Gen. Saito, had hoped to reduce the defences of Changsha at its leisure, but Chinese counter-moves made sure that it enjoyed no such luxury.

The Japanese, having launched a minor reconnaissance probe westwards towards Kweiyang (see post # 286), elected to withdraw the troops making it from their exposed position and to consolidate Japan’s river bridgehead north of Hengchow. The wisdom of this move seemed to be confirmed by the approach march of a force that included the 40th and 89th Chinese Corps, moving along the same road as that recently traversed by the Japanese reconnaissance unit. The Chinese were apparently intent upon contesting the Japanese bridgehead, and they appeared to have a good chance of doing so successfully.

Meanwhile, from south of Changsha came signs of a Chinese withdrawal from Kanhsien, with only a single unit remaining in place to garrison the town. The destination of the withdrawing Chinese forces was unclear, but their appearance in Changsha as reinforcements for that city’s garrison threatened either to deny the Japanese its capture or the imposition of unacceptable casualties as the price of its taking. Further, Chinese retention of Changsha would prevent rapid reinforcement of the Japanese bridgehead across the river that was now urgently needed in order to hold off the Chinese relief columns approaching from the west.

Reduction of Changsha’s defences had been proceeding more quickly than had been anticipated, possibly due to efficient forward movement of supplies from Hankow along the Peiping-Canton railway. By 10 July 1943 a series of set-piece attacks had carried the Japanese besiegers two-thirds of the way through the city’s defences:

06/26/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 114997 troops, 611 guns, 12 vehicles, Assault Value = 2507
Defending force 42240 troops, 190 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1079
Japanese max assault: 2490 - adjusted assault: 2587
Allied max defense: 1141 - adjusted defense: 1658
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 9)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 8
Japanese ground losses:
2015 casualties reported
Guns lost 32
Vehicles lost 2
Allied ground losses:
954 casualties reported
Guns lost 14

06/29/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 113165 troops, 590 guns, 11 vehicles, Assault Value = 2887
Defending force 40099 troops, 173 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1050
Japanese max assault: 2387 - adjusted assault: 1652
Allied max defense: 1018 - adjusted defense: 743
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 8)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 7
Japanese ground losses:
2011 casualties reported
Guns lost 17
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
1572 casualties reported
Guns lost 16

07/01/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 132886 troops, 672 guns, 9 vehicles, Assault Value = 2776
Defending force 37518 troops, 153 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1021
Japanese max assault: 2694 - adjusted assault: 5212
Allied max defense: 993 - adjusted defense: 946
Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 7)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 6
Japanese ground losses:
2475 casualties reported
Guns lost 27
Vehicles lost 3
Allied ground losses:
1617 casualties reported
Guns lost 16

07/03/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 130079 troops, 636 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 2650
Defending force 34996 troops, 127 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 969
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 5
Japanese max assault: 2603 - adjusted assault: 2620
Allied max defense: 773 - adjusted defense: 830
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 5)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 5
Japanese ground losses:
1581 casualties reported
Guns lost 13
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
1286 casualties reported
Guns lost 29

07/06/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 128320 troops, 622 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 2563
Defending force 33332 troops, 91 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 915
Japanese max assault: 2548 - adjusted assault: 2328
Allied max defense: 718 - adjusted defense: 538
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 5)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 4
Japanese ground losses:
1465 casualties reported
Guns lost 17
Allied ground losses:
1181 casualties reported
Guns lost 10

07/08/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 126912 troops, 610 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 2498
Defending force 31745 troops, 78 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 874
Japanese max assault: 2487 - adjusted assault: 4823
Allied max defense: 594 - adjusted defense: 994
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 4)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 3
Japanese ground losses:
1545 casualties reported
Guns lost 6
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
1202 casualties reported
Guns lost 21

Now, however, the relief forces approaching from the south and west compelled Saito to act with greater urgency, and for 10 July he ordered 13th Army to make a supreme effort to wrest the city from the Chinese, regardless of cost.

Every Japanese bomber within range of Changsha was supposed to have received orders for a maximum close support effort intended to aid their comrades on the ground, yet for reasons unknown not a single aircraft launched an attack upon the city’s defenders. Undaunted, the ground troops’ attack went in, and despite substantial losses the élan of their assault was sufficient to compel the defenders’ retirement across the river to Hengchow, notwithstanding the arrival in Changsha of the first units in the relief column from Kanhsien:

07/10/43
Ground combat at Changsha
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 125832 troops, 617 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 2430
Defending force 45196 troops, 87 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1144
Japanese max assault: 4832 - adjusted assault: 5941
Allied max defense: 874 - adjusted defense: 457
Japanese assault odds: 13 to 1 (fort level 3)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Changsha base !!!
Allied aircraft
no flights
Allied aircraft losses
I-16c: 2 destroyed
Japanese ground losses:
2252 casualties reported
Guns lost 30
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
2258 casualties reported
Guns lost 28

Thus, albeit at greater cost then they would have wished, the Japanese successfully concluded their operations against Changsha. They had done so quickly enough to prevent the arrival of sufficient Chinese reinforcements to hold the city. Now a Chinese force of about 100,000 men stood isolated at the approaches to Nanchang, and the race was on to bring sufficient troops across the river to hold the Japanese bridgehead against the Chinese counter-attack and open the way west towards Kweiyang.

[Local Yokel]

Changsha Analysis

The Japanese employed six infantry divisions and one mixed brigade to take Changsha, and as expected they had to overcome level 9 fortifications in order to do so. To show the impact of siege upon the attacking units, here is a graphic that sets out disruption, fatigue, AV and TOE values for the units involved as the siege progressed. It also shows the participants’ experience gains and morale levels, though the latter remained largely unaltered (20th Mixed’s morale is a cause for some concern!). I have not shown the effect of successive deliberate attacks upon unit supply levels; suffice it to say that all units’ supplies were being replenished fast enough to permit deliberate attacks at intervals of two or three days with all units carrying their minimum supply requirement – i.e. only one day’s recuperation was normally required before the army was adequately re-supplied to renew the attack, and to do so with an acceptably low level of disruption.

Unfortunately values for turn 578 seem to have gone walkabout; for some reason they didn’t get saved in the Tracker database, possibly as a result of a power loss – sorry about that.

Originally I would have preferred to continue a series of deliberate attacks against the city with a view to minimising casualties. However I suspect that the last shock attack that destroyed the remaining three levels of fortification probably caused Japanese losses no greater than those that would have been sustained if deliberate attacks had continued. Note that 36th and 39th Divisions appear to have suffered significantly heavier losses in the final assault than other formations, whilst 26th Division suffered barely a scratch. This probably reflects the fact that the two divisions suffering the heaviest casualties were not 100% prepared for the attack (36th at 89% prep. and 39th at 87%). 59th Division was 87% prepared, but all the remaining infantry units were at 100% preparation.

Consistent with my policy of treating China as a training ground for the Japanese Army, all the units involved in this operation now possess high experience levels, all bar 26th Division being in the high 80’s or better in this respect.

It’s apparent that the Chinese attempt to reinforce the Changsha defences was partially successful. On 8 July the defenders numbered 31,745 troops, but by 10 July their numbers had risen to 45,196. Clearly the additional forces included 58th Chinese Corps (showing an AV? Value of 495 as the final battle progressed), but I suspect that an HQ formation had also reached Changsha by 10 July, since a total of four HQ’s was forced to retreat to Hengchow. Given a final odds ratio of 13:1 in favour of the Japanese, I would guess that those units that made it into Changsha before the city’s fall did so in a highly debilitated state – no great surprise, as the units coming up from Kanhsien must have been pretty much out of supply for the last month or more.

I now have an operational choice to make: do I immediately advance westwards towards Kweiyang, thereby threatening the isolation of all the Chinese forces to the south of that city, or do I first reduce the Chinese force standing to the west of Nanchang? I suspect that an advance towards Kweiyang might well have the desired effect of prompting a retreat from Hengchow, Kweilin and Liuchow – the threat of encirclement would be pretty obvious. However, such an advance would leave my point units at the end of a long line of communication exposed to counter-attacks from across the Yangtse, especially to the south of Ichang, where there are five Chinese units on the river line. I think it would probably be preferable to clear the Nanchang-Changsha road in order to secure my communications, since any Chinese crossing of the Yangtse, however costly to the attackers, would effectively isolate Changsha and any Japanese forces to its west. It’s long been my intention to compel a Chinese retreat from Liuchow by manoeuvre rather than frontal assault, and the potential for achieving this by means of an advance towards Kweiyang will still be there, even if I decide that I must first clear my LoC by eliminating the Chinese forces that face Nanchang. However, I have yet to make a final decision on which course to follow.

[1275psi]

WOW -now that is attention to detail!

[Local Yokel]

Well, it probably confirms that there's a strong streak of the obsessive-compulsive in me [:)]

But I do go to some lengths to conserve my pixel-warriors.

One thing that sets this game apart from many wargames is the emphasis it places on nurturing and growing your forces' capabilities rather than on the destructive aspects of warfare alone. My enjoyment of 'growing' activities probably accounts in part for my preference for playing Japan. With it, however, comes a risk that I shall not be sufficiently ruthless in the employment of my forces when I need to be in order to secure a crushing victory. At Changsha, I agonised quite a bit about the damage my units would suffer as a result of committing them all to a shock attack.