Ukraine 2014

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Rudd
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by Rudd »

ORIGINAL: Baloogan

Image
Ukranian S-300 TELs moving near Odessa today.
Nothing to see here...There's no Russian military units in Crimea, just some upset citizens and their S-300 battalion driving in the "fast" lane (in the US anyway), man I hate that.

Joking aside, sure is turning into a scarier situation
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by RoryAndersonCDT »

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 27m
Around 2 hours something is happening in #Kharkiv. Pro-#russians are damaging building of local organization 'Prosvita', at 18 Rymarska str

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 21m
People says that they has heard gunshots and explosions in #Kharkiv. But police are not interfere |PR News #Ukraine

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 18m
Clashes has started around 9pm at the #Kharkiv Independence square b/w pro-#russian activists&unknown (pro-russian says it was Right Sector)

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 13m
Than pro-#russians deceided to block pro-ukrainian office 'Prosvita' & there real battle has started -hromadske.tv |PR #Ukraine #Kharkiv

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 10m
'Situation in #Kharkiv is well-organized provocation by #russian forces' says acting governor #Kernes |PR #Ukraine

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 7m
At front of 'Prosvita'office at9:30pm shooting has started between pro-#russian activists (includingOPLOT)&pro-#ukrainian Prosvita members

Euromaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 1m
As a result of firing in #Kharkiv, 2 persons were killed and 1 hardly injured -hromadske.tv |PR #Ukraine
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NakedWeasel
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by NakedWeasel »

Hard to imagine the Russians moving all that hardware into the Crimea AO, if they have no intention of using it. NATO is really behind the curve on this. Its time to deploy some air assets, real quick like. I'd rather have and not need it, than to wait until the inevitable occurs before moving it to where it needs to be. I hope that Russia and it's people understand the ramifications of what Putin is doing. The Ukrainians aren't going to simply roll over and die, and they will kill many thousands of Russian troops before surrendering. And if the Russians really do start attacking the Ukraine en mass, I cannot see how NATO cannot intervene. Putin may well be remembered as the man who single-handedly started World War Three. I hope that this is not the history lesson my grandkids will have to learn in school- if there are any grand kids, or schools in the distant future.... [:@]
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RoryAndersonCDT
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by RoryAndersonCDT »

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

Baloogan
Nice, a lot going on. I'm 2.5 hrs into it and will go for a restart. Have knocked about 52 A/C, a bunch of radars, a Kashin and a Krivak sunk, Slava and Kara damaged, the Kara badly. But I've lost 7 A/C myself and need to pay more attention.

Some comments:
-You may want to reset the time at scenario start. Looks like you ran it for 20 min or so to get the ships in the right direction but just need to reset the start time.
-it's not clear in the briefing if you intend for the CSG to go through the Bosporus into the Black Sea. Recommend that you make it clear that it should not do so. Also the George Bush was sited a few days ago near Antalya, which is a better spot for it than in the restricted waters of the North Aegean, would just require a couple more tankers.
-You have the NATO E-3A's involved, I would suspect that with this much going on some US E-3Bs would be in town.
-Some form of Recon A/C, satellite, or potentially SOF units in country would be useful - I suspect we know where the SAM's & SSM's are - roughly anyway. Perhaps a marker for 'Last known location'
-I think its very likely that CVW 8 would have some of its Hornet's with an AAW loadaout, no mater what the threat
-I think your A/C count for HSC-9 and HSM -70 are a bit high. Not actually sure but it seems more likely that they would have only 5-6 helo's each
-Soviet Jammers start engaging later on in the scenario but I suspect that the Bear in the Air would be sparking up very early on. Counter that with some EC-130J's and there won't be a Garage door opener within a 1000 miles not going crazy!
-48th FW seems a bit odd. It should have 2xSqn of F-15E and only one of F-15C, all of 24 A/C each.
---Yup just checked, 492 (Madhatters) & 494 (Panthers)Ftr Sqns have Es, and 493rd (Grim Reapers)has C & Ds : Would be nice to have the Sqn names
---On that note 31st FW has: 510th FS (Buzzards), 555th FS (Triple Nickle) which only has Block 40's I believe. 24 A/C each
-All A/C are fully ready, plausible in this situation but it is unlikely that all would be serviceable, recommend having a handful down for maintenance (10% perhaps?)

Had an issue with HARMs going astray and have reported that. That caused my strike at the surface group to be less than fully effective.

Back to it now...

B


Thanks for your notes [:)] I've updated the scen based on your comments.
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ThunderCBR
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by ThunderCBR »

Baloogan,

Just reviewing your OOB for US forces, I find it very hard to believe that USAF B-52H's would be forward positioned in Romania that close to the front lines. Closest I could see them coming would be RAF Fairford which have previously supported missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. More realistically for the purpose of your scenario, you can have them available direct from Barksdale AFB and Minot AFB and fly the long trip and back if you wanted heavy bombardment option. This would require some serious strike planning in addition to your tactical aviation assets already present.

Nothing has been in the news regarding moving B-52's or other heavy assets and such a move would be seen by the Russians as provocative in the extreme, IMHO.

EDIT: Just wanted to add that this is great work!!
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by RoryAndersonCDT »

ORIGINAL: ThunderCBR

Baloogan,

Just reviewing your OOB for US forces, I find it very hard to believe that USAF B-52H's would be forward positioned in Romania that close to the front lines. Closest I could see them coming would be RAF Fairford which have previously supported missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. More realistically for the purpose of your scenario, you can have them available direct from Barksdale AFB and Minot AFB and fly the long trip and back if you wanted heavy bombardment option. This would require some serious strike planning in addition to your tactical aviation assets already present.

Nothing has been in the news regarding moving B-52's or other heavy assets and such a move would be seen by the Russians as provocative in the extreme, IMHO.

Yeah I agree. In part that airbase is intended to represent 'off map' assets without having to have a whole chain of tankers from CONUS/UK to eastern europe.
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by RoryAndersonCDT »

ORIGINAL: ThunderCBR
EDIT: Just wanted to add that this is great work!!

Thanks [:D] its my first 'real' scenario with AI/scoring/briefing.
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guanotwozero
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by guanotwozero »

ORIGINAL: NakedWeasel

Hard to imagine the Russians moving all that hardware into the Crimea AO, if they have no intention of using it. NATO is really behind the curve on this. Its time to deploy some air assets, real quick like. I'd rather have and not need it, than to wait until the inevitable occurs before moving it to where it needs to be. I hope that Russia and it's people understand the ramifications of what Putin is doing. The Ukrainians aren't going to simply roll over and die, and they will kill many thousands of Russian troops before surrendering. And if the Russians really do start attacking the Ukraine en mass, I cannot see how NATO cannot intervene. Putin may well be remembered as the man who single-handedly started World War Three. I hope that this is not the history lesson my grandkids will have to learn in school- if there are any grand kids, or schools in the distant future.... [:@]
I doubt if Putin has yet made a specific decision to invade the east or even whole country, but he must be keeping it as an option. The primary reason to have such massed forces will be to deter any direct military response when the Crimea annexation is announced.

NATO's mandate is only to defend its members, not to intervene elsewhere. Anything beyond that would have to be explicitly agreed by each member state, and I doubt if there's much willingness to go to war with Russia over this.

I don't think Putin would dare attack a NATO member directly. Even if he invades the rest of Ukraine, NATO itself won't directly intervene. Far more likely there will be material support for the Ukraine resistance which will a) slow down the invasion and b) make occupation painful. Plus, the economic response will likely end up as very painful for Russia.

Putin can get what he wants in the short term - it's the longer term he'll find difficult to maintain.
CaptCarnage
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by CaptCarnage »

NATO intervened in Afghanistan though:
NATO and Afghanistan

NATO’s primary objective in Afghanistan is to enable the Afghan authorities to provide effective security across the country and ensure that the country can never again be a safe haven for terrorists. Since August 2003, the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has been conducting security operations, while also training and developing the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). 
______

Reading this it occurs to me that Putin doesn't want Ukraine to be a safe-haven for fascist terrorists. Hmm.
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by Dimitris »

ORIGINAL: ThunderCBR
Just reviewing your OOB for US forces, I find it very hard to believe that USAF B-52H's would be forward positioned in Romania that close to the front lines. Closest I could see them coming would be RAF Fairford which have previously supported missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

IIRC during Vietnam B-52 were forward-based in Thailand in order to maximize their overhead endurance while heavily loaded, and minimize transit time to/from the patrol/strike area.
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by Gunner98 »

ORIGINAL: Skyhigh

NATO intervened in Afghanistan though:
NATO and Afghanistan

NATO’s primary objective in Afghanistan is to enable the Afghan authorities to provide effective security across the country and ensure that the country can never again be a safe haven for terrorists. Since August 2003, the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has been conducting security operations, while also training and developing the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). 
______

Reading this it occurs to me that Putin doesn't want Ukraine to be a safe-haven for fascist terrorists. Hmm.

The initial NATO intervention in Afghanistan was considered an Article 5 action in defence of a member country - the US.

http://www.nato.int/terrorism/five.htm

Expansion of the involvement beyond that, I think in 03 and 06 was a NACC decision agreed to by all nations.

B
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guanotwozero
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by guanotwozero »

Furthermore, no NATO member tried to annex Afghanistan.

EDIT ===

WP has a list of attempted annexations since 1948. Almost all forced ones have been unsuccessful, though several remain unresolved. The main exception is India's takeover of Goa, which is currently unchallenged, though even now the UN recognises that self-determination did not happen.

As the Crimea referendum is not regarded as legitimate under international law, it means the annexation will be regarded as illegal and unresolved for as long as it continues. This will likely remain a major stumbling block for Russia in its dealings with the international community.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation ... since_1948
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by CaptCarnage »

Annexing, rigging referendums or installing puppets... what's the real difference?

I like it though that Russia says that USA invaded Iraq illegally so they have no right to speak - I find that almost an admission of guilt over illegally invading Ujraine :)
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by Elouda »

ORIGINAL: Gunner98
-I think your A/C count for HSC-9 and HSM -70 are a bit high. Not actually sure but it seems more likely that they would have only 5-6 helo's each

In 2011 she carried 8 MH-60S of HSC-9 and 11 MH-60R of HSM-70. The typical numbers from what I've seen in the newer airwing arrangements tend to float around 6-8 HSC and 8-12 HSM, so would be rather surprised if it was any less at the moment.
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by VIF2NE »

only business [:)]

http://spotters.net.ua/file/?id=90506

Ukraine continues to manufacture engines for the Russian military helicopters.
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by guanotwozero »

ORIGINAL: Skyhigh

Annexing, rigging referendums or installing puppets... what's the real difference?

I like it though that Russia says that USA invaded Iraq illegally so they have no right to speak - I find that almost an admission of guilt over illegally invading Ujraine :)
Annexing is a blatant grab, where local sovereignty is abolished. If not done legally, involving free-and-fair self-determination, it's just territorial theft. Rigging a referendum is one ploy to justify it to an audience, usually a domestic one. A more extreme example is when Indonesia claimed that East Timor joined it voluntarily, despite ~30% of the population dying due to the invasion and occupation, and 80% voting for independence when they finally got the chance.

Installing a puppet is very different. National sovereignty is not usurped, though the political will of the people may be. There is still the likelihood that popular free-will will return eventually. Puppets can be overthrown (Central Europe 1989), or just stop being puppets (Hun Sen/Cambodia). The people still have their country, even if it has a leader they don't want. The problem is temporary.

The Iraq invasion was probably not illegal under international law, as there was a major humanitarian aspect, though many will agree it was just a bad idea. Significantly the invaders did not annex the territory (which WOULD have been illegal), so Iraq remains a nation state. The Iraqi leaders since the invasion have arguably been sectarian, venal and mostly failing their people, but they have not been puppets. Indeed the moderates the invaders would have preferred mostly got nowhere in the elections.

Throughout most of human history, sovereignty was about tribes dominating other tribes (and later organised countries), usually led by autocrats. Force mattered far more than popular will. However, that changed steadily since the Enlightenment, especially after WWII when the UN and international law was well established. While a humanitarian-inspired intervention in Crimea might be justified if ethnic Russians were actually being badly persecuted (which was NOT the case prior to this invasion), an annexation is very much contrary to international law.

International law also demands any humanitarian intervention must be non-partisan, not favouring a particular ethnic group as Mr Putin is doing. To highlight that - contrast Mr Putin's pronouncements about Crimea's rights to "self-determination" with those regarding Chechnya's.

As for the referendum campaign being free and fair, check out the top picture here. [X(] Just imagine the reaction if either side in the Scottish independence campaign tried to use such posters! [;)]
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by Gunner98 »

ORIGINAL: Baloogan

Thanks for your notes [:)] I've updated the scen based on your comments.
Thanks for your notes I've updated the scen based on your comments.



Very nice. Ran through again this morning. Comments:

-AAW - very tense for a while, the reinforcements did the trick and kept me busy for about 7 hours. If you let your guard down, like I did, they will get in amongst your heavies - not pretty, a Hawkeye and a Commando Solo paid for my mistake!
-If you add another Regt around hour 6 or 7 you could really keep the player hopping. I liked the choices you left the player on the initial load-outs, I was gradually taking squadrons off AAW but was never sure until the air battle died down completely
-Jammers - keeps the air picture somewhat murky until the Su's get West of the Crimea. Once I found the little bugger though.....
-Fetesti doesn't have a magazine load-out, the other airbase does.
-SOF was a nice touch and quite useful. I would scrap the RHIB however, the AI wasted 4 SandBox on it!
-CVW 8, I think the 18C's would have the AAW load-out, they are less capable bombers than the Super Hornets, don't think it really matters.
-Not sure if you want to add civil traffic, air and sea to complicate things.
-I removed the Soviet player from the map but still only got to Maj Defeat, because of losses, most of which were dopy because I was rushing through.

A couple of tweaks and I think this one is ready to go. Well done.

Had a couple issues with MALD's and the Recon pod on the Hornet, I'll report those.

B
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by Gunner98 »

ORIGINAL: Elouda
ORIGINAL: Gunner98
-I think your A/C count for HSC-9 and HSM -70 are a bit high. Not actually sure but it seems more likely that they would have only 5-6 helo's each

In 2011 she carried 8 MH-60S of HSC-9 and 11 MH-60R of HSM-70. The typical numbers from what I've seen in the newer airwing arrangements tend to float around 6-8 HSC and 8-12 HSM, so would be rather surprised if it was any less at the moment.

Didn't think they would be that big, I guess there is enough room for them now.

B
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RoryAndersonCDT
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by RoryAndersonCDT »

I just watched the UNSC's feed.

Ambassador Power was radiant as always! @AmbassadorPower


http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/20 ... 74925.html
Russia isolated over Crimea after UN vote
Moscow only opponent to Security Council resolution condemning Crimean referendum, with China crucially abstaining.

Russia has been exposed as internationally isolated over the crisis in Crimea, with members of the UN Security Council overwhelmingly supporting a draft resolution condemning an upcoming referendum in the Ukraine region as illegal.

Russia vetoed the US-backed resolution when it was put to the council on Saturday, but its China abstained, leaving Russia as the only nation to recognise the Crimean referendum.

The veto means the resolution will not be adopted by the UN, but highlights Russia's isolation in the international community over Crimea

After the vote was taken, Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the UN, said: "Under the UN charter, the Russian Federation has the power to veto a security council resolution. But it does not have the power to veto the truth."

"History has lessons for all of us, who are willing to listen. Unfortunately, not everyone was willing to listen today."

Al Jazeera's diplomatic editor, James Bays, said the vote laid bare the international opposition to Russia's stance on Ukraine and Crimea.

"China is not supporting its ally Russia on this occasion. It is abstaining. That's the best the Western nations, who drafted this resolution, could hope for, but they think that this is important because it exposes that Russia is on its own."

Before the vote, Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, said that Russia's action in Crimea arose because of an "unconstitutional coup" in Kiev.

Final preparations

Pro-Russian leaders in Crimea were making final preparations for a referendum widely expected to transfer control of the region to Russia, despite denunciation by Ukraine and threats of Western sanctions.


Rival protests staged in Ukraine and Russia on Crimea referendum
On Saturday, Ukraine's acting president, Oleksander Turchinov, accused "Kremlin agents" of fomenting deadly violence in eastern cities of Donetsk and Kharkiv, ahead of the vote on Sunday.

Ukraine's parliament meanwhile voted overwhelmingly to dissolve Crimea's assembly, while demonstrators staged large protests in Ukraine and in the Russian capital Moscow, for and against the referendum.

Three people died in two incidents on Friday, including two in a reported shootout in the eastern city of Kharkiv.

On the eve of a breakaway vote, Turchinov told politicians: "You know as well as we do who is organising mass protests in eastern Ukraine - it is Kremlin agents who are organising and funding them, who are causing people to be murdered."

Security has been stepped up in Donetsk, where thousands of pro-Russian supporters are rallying on Saturday.

And in Moscow, about 50,000 people have rallied to protest against Russia's intervention in Ukraine, shouting, "The occupation of Crimea is Russia's disgrace" and "Hands off Ukraine".

A rival demonstration within sight of the Kremlin attracted an estimated 15,000 people in support of Putin.

The peninsula of two million mostly Russian speakers is widely expected to vote to split from Ukraine and join Russia after its politicians declared independence from Kiev earlier this month.

The referendum comes in direct response to three months of protests that on February 22 toppled the pro-Kremlin president, Viktor Yanukovich, and brought to power a new nationalist European-leaning team in Kiev.

Kiev has denounced the Crimean vote as illegal but is also warily watching as similar separatist sentiments are being fanned by Moscow supporters in other regions in eastern Ukraine, which has deep cultural and trade ties to Russia.
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RE: Ukraine 2014

Post by RoryAndersonCDT »

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

ORIGINAL: Elouda
ORIGINAL: Gunner98
-I think your A/C count for HSC-9 and HSM -70 are a bit high. Not actually sure but it seems more likely that they would have only 5-6 helo's each

In 2011 she carried 8 MH-60S of HSC-9 and 11 MH-60R of HSM-70. The typical numbers from what I've seen in the newer airwing arrangements tend to float around 6-8 HSC and 8-12 HSM, so would be rather surprised if it was any less at the moment.

Didn't think they would be that big, I guess there is enough room for them now.

B


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