Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (continued).

[ax] Land Combat. Japan vs Ichang. +11.388 Assault.
Fractional(833)=433, yes. 2D10=12. Result=24.
Chinese inf army and garrison lost.
Ichang falls. USE=5, no chit added.

Japan. China. Central/Northern China.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (concluded).

[ax] Land Combat (last). Germany vs MIL in Belgium woods. +20.5 Blitz.
Outcome is automatic. MIL eliminated with no attacker losses or flips.

[ax] Air Rebase. Germany Ju 88A1 from Brussels to Belgium Woods 54,32.

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy. Ca.135 from Tripoli, Libya to Cagliari, Sardinia.

[ax] Air Rebase. Japan. None.

[ax] HQ Reorg. Germany. von Bock. 150 mm arty div, FTR2 at Belgium 53,31.

[ax] I'll leave it there and pass the game file to you.

The Western Front.

[Courtenay]

Not bad. You didn't get the oil, but you did kill the Chinese FTR, as well as 7 BPs of Chinese troops. The Axis air force had good luck this turn, to get itself up to slightly below average for the game. The ground strikes were also about average, although you did get the most important unit.

The Allies have been giving up terrain to save units, but China does not have an infinite amount of space to give up, and France does not have much space at all. You are happy killing French units for free.

One thing you did not do is clear the Chihkiang-Changsha rail line. That should be a high priority, because that will shortly become your major supply route.

[brian brian]

The Chinese FTR accomplishes far more by simply not intercepting until 1942. Otherwise it ties down the Zero every time Japanese bombers fly. Until...


I have always thought AA fire vs a PARA should really hurt by taking factors off the resulting land attack - but not be allowed into adjacent hexes, since a paradrop is a one time mission across 3-4 hours whereas things like Ground Strike or Strategic Bombing are sustained air operations across many days and air missions.


I also thought you built a German Parachute division to add to the eventual use of the PARA corps?

I have begun always doing that in Sep/Oct 39, sometimes adding the Italian one. It is a good way to break into Belgium while leaving Holland neutral, and hopefully denying the Dyle line to the Allies at the same time. The PARAs might have to survive a French counter-attack - but that counter-attack might also cripple the French. Not giving the Allies the 10 Dutch CP, with the potency of the SUBs in CE rules, is a big help in keeping the pressure on the CW - and off of the Axis.

[rkr1958]

I must say that I'm really enjoying this contest. Thanks for talking me into playing against an opponent as opposed to another go at solitary. I find it's enjoyable not really knowing what the other side is thinking and having to infer from their actions.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied # 8.

[al] Rolling end of turn. {Rolling at the end of axis #7 for end of turn.}.

[al] Missed it by thaaaat much. {Turn ends on less than 2 and the roll was a 2}.

[ax] Wow ...

[ax] It's probably best that at end your impulse you handle end of turn roll and, if applicable, next impulse pair weather roll. If you don't mind of course.

[al] Allied Impulse 8
No DoWs, alignments, border demands, etc.

Actions
Fr & China land
CW & USSR combined
USA pass

[al] Port Attacks: CW has two port attacks. Axis can't CAP or intercept either of them (as far as I can determine).
(1) CW port attacks Kiel from North Sea.
(2) CW port attacks Tripoli, Libya, from Eastern Med.

[al] Port Strike Kiel
Germany does not commit subs (I felt safe making that assumption) - only targets are the old BBs.
Surprise rolls are Germany 7, CW 2. CW has 4 surprise, which it spends to boost damage from 1D, 1A to 2D, 3A.

[al] CW picks D on Schlesien: saving throw is 8 - aborted.

[al] How do you want to pick the next D?

[ax] Isn't just 1 BB left?

[al] It's just Schlesien and Schleswig-Holstein in port. Schleswig-Holstein is indeed the only target now that Schlesien has been aborted.

[ax] Copy that

[al] D on Schleswig_Holstein: saving throw is 9 - aborted.

[al] Port Strike Tripoli
Italy has 1 cp in port. Surprise rolls are Italy 7, CW 7. Neither side has enough surprise to do anything.

[al] Damage is 1A, which aborts the convoy point.

[al] No naval air missions.

[al] Naval Movement
- Royal Navy sails HMS Liverpool and HMAS Shropshire from Gibraltar to 4 box Eastern Med.
- Royal Navy sails TRS from Plymouth to 2 box North Sea, embarking the V Corps in London.

{Dangit! Looks like move British troops are on their way to France.}

[al] Naval Combat
CW initiates combats in Eastern Med and Italian Coast.

[al] Combat in Eastern Med.
No air support (CW won't, Axis can't).
Search rolls are CW 3, Italy 6.

[al] CW picks 0 box and so has 7 surprise points. CW picks a surface combat.

[al] Damage profiles before spending surprise are:
- It 8 surface vs 6 ships: 1D, 3A.
- CW 23 surface vs 2 ships: 1X, 2A.

[al] CW spends surprise to shift damage profiles to:
- Italy: original damage 1D, 3A becomes 1D.
- CW: original damage 1X, 2A becomes 1X, 1D, 2A.

[ax] Put X on CP. Then D, 2A on ship.

[ax] Please.

[al] I would, but I have 3 surprise left. You can guess where that's going.

[ax] Oh ... I did say please. 😁

[al] CW spends 3 surprise to pick a target, in order to pick the X on Italian battleship Vittorio Veneto.
X on VV: saving throw is a 1, and Vittoro Veneto is sunk.
That leaves D and 2A and only one target. The cp takes the D and is also sunk.
They're breaking out the champagne on the RN flagship.

[al] CW takes 1D damage.
D on cruiser HMS Sussex; saving throw is 4 - she's damaged

[al] RN stays, do the Italians want to stay?

[ax] Nice shooting.

[ax] Heck no, they flee (er ... retire) to Malta.

[al] Italian cruisers at sea... let's say, strategically redeploy to Malta. 😉

[ax] Back is sec ... Dogs of war are crying to go out. What whimps!

[al] They're French - they want to distract you.

[ax] They're really good at it too.

[al] I may have to start referring to them as the Fluffy Maquis once France is defeated.

[ax] At the rate I'm going that may be a while.

[al] I don't know... from my perspective the French look like they're one decent blitz combat away from the whole front collapsing. But I guess a lot will depend on how long this turn goes on.

[ax] Fingers crossed ... assume yours are too.

Fluffy Maquis

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied # 8. (continued).

[al] On to the combat in Italian Coast.
No air support (neither side has eligible planes).
CW commits subs
Search rolls are CW 8, Italy 10. Ain't nobody finding no one out there.

[al] Germany can initiate in the North Sea if it wants.

[ax] No thank you.

[al] Any CAP for strategic bombing or, more importantly, ground strikes?

[ax] Negative. No CAP.

[al] No strategic bombing.

Ground Strikes:
(1) CW atr3 'Harrow' to Boulogne, targeting the PARA.
(2) French artillery in hex [54,31] bombards the Germans in Belgum [53,31].

[ax] I thought you might do that ...

[ax] I really wished I'd flipped that French arty division!

[al] Strike results:
(1) CW strike on Boulogne: roll of 9 misses. {That was on the lone German airborne corps that dropped last impulse and took Boulogne without a fighter (i.e., no notionals)}
(2) French bombardment of [53,31]:
- roll of 7 misses ftr2 'Bf 109E-4 Emil'
- roll of 8 misses I Corps (9-4 INF)
- roll of 4 misses XLVIII Corps (7-5 ARM)
- roll of 4 misses 150 mm guns (4-2 art)

Not exactly stellar marksmanship. Oh, well.

[al] Now you've flipped it. 😀

[ax] Wow ... now watch the turn end.

French Artillery Ground Strike Flyout.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied # 8. (concluded).

[al] Rail Moves
- USSR rails 3rd infantry division (1-4 inf) from Omsk to Chita.

[al] Land Moves
- USSR Siberian Corps in Blagyoveshchensk leaves the city.
- More adjustments by USSR in Ukraine.
- No Communist Chinese moves.
- KMT re-forms a line running through Kweiyang.
- British II Corps (7-3 INF) advances into the Egyptian desert along the coast from Alexandria.
- Glasgow MIL moves to Edinburgh, the troops doubtless complaining the entire time about being forced to endure sub-par Edinburgh pubs.
- French move Dakar MIL towards the front.
- French V Corps (6-4 INF) blocks the German advance out of Boulogne.
- British V Corps (5-4 INF) debarks into Rouen.

[al] I had actually planned out more French moves, but that was before I decided to land the Brits in Rouen.

[ax] Holiday is it.

[al] Well, the lads better not treat it like one.

[al] No land combats.

[ax] I hear Germany's offering free tours.

[al] Yes, in special all-inclusive resorts. Although I hear the accommodations aren't the best.

[al] A bit prison-ish, is what I'm told.

[ax] But, lodging and meals are furnished.

[al] Sweet. I've got... 1.2 million bookings to put in. When do I sign up?

[ax] Berlin.

[ax] Seriously though, why do the Brits want to complicate my life so?

[al] Sheer bloody-mindedness.

[ax] 🧐

[al] Rebases
- Soviet IL-4 rebases from the middle of bloody nowhere to Ulan Ude on the shores of Lake Baikal. (So... slightly less bloody nowhere.)
- RAF ftr2 in Alexandria flies to cover the advance through the desert.

[al] No reorg, so it's on to end of turn roll.

[al] End of turn roll is a 3. The turn just barely keeps going. {Turn would have ended on a 1 or 2; i.e., less than 3. Barely missed ending again.}

[ax] Close, now for the weather.

[al] Weather roll is 4 - fine everywhere except North Monsoon, which is rain.

[ax] I can live with that.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. Weather.

The probability the axis get another impulse after this one is 0.7 x 0.6 = 0.42 (assuming at least two allied MP's don't pass).

The probability that given another impulse the weather is fine in the north temperate (i.e., on the Western Front) is 0.8.

The probability of getting another fine weather impulse on the western front is 0.42 x .8 = .336 (about 1 in 3).

So I'd say that this is likely the last fine weather impulse the axis will get this turn.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. War Gaming (1/4).

So even though the Germans can get 4 full stacks adjacent to Lille, the best odds that they can get is +7.667 assault, which includes +2 HQ support from Rundstedt. These odds give the Germans on a 42% of taking the city. It's hard not to say heck and go for it, but I've decided to maintain combat discipline and turn Lille into a self-sustaining POW camp (for now at least).

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. War Gaming (2/4).

I looked at trying to crack the Magnoit line and pushing into Strasbourg. Though only 1 defender the odds were so abysmal, attacker flips assure and chances of multiple attackers lost too great to carry through the land combat. Like Lille, I plan (for now) to turn the Magnoit line into a self-sustaining POW camp.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. War Gaming (3/4).

How I wanted to just "roll the dice" and let the Italians attack Nice. But again, the risks are too much for my tastes; especially given only 4 land units could attack and the dreaded 14 (8.5% chance) would wipe out a mountain ,mot corps and art division. Another no-go ...

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. War Gaming (4/4).

So the only go for land combat was a blitz against a French 3-stack containing Georges HQ-I, inf corps and art div. The only question was whether or not to add Rundstedt HQ support (+2).

In the end it was decided to include the +2 in HQ support which guaranteed a win, significantly increased the chance of not losing any attackers and remaining organized.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9.

[ax] Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9.
No DOW's. No special actions. No alignments.
Japan - land, Germany - land, Italy - combine.

[ax] Chance turn ends after this impulse is 30%

[ax] Naval Air. None.

[ax] Naval Movement.
Italy moves CP from Trieste to East Med (reestablishing supply to the Italian forces in North Africa).
Assume RN in East Med wish to initiate?
If so, which ship initiates?

[al] Revenge in 2 box will initiate.

[ax] East Med.
RN Revenge initiates.
Search. RN=1, RM=2. RN finds and another Italian CP sent to the bottom.
And, supply to Balbo and his forces in Libya broken again.

East Med.

{I may be able to get the gun div and inf corps out of Libya and back to mainland Italy, but I'm afraid Balbo is toast. Without supply I won't be able to reorganized him}.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. (continued)

[ax] Strategic Bombing. None.

[ax] Ground Strikes. Japan x 1.

[ax] Ki-27 F/B (1 Tac) vs Mao & 8th Rte army.
(1) vs 8th Rte army=5, missed.
(2) vs Mao=1, flipped.

[al] Wow. Nice shot.

[ax] Only 10% chance but why not?

{With both Mao and Chaing flipped and only 1 Chinese oil point, only one will Chinese HQ will be reorganized next turn}

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. (continued)

[al] Rail. Japan. Man Terr. Port Arthur to Chengchow, China.

Southern China. Post Movement.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. (continued)

Northern & Central China. Post Movement.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #9. (continued)

[ax] Land Combat. Just One.
German Blitz vs 3-Stack, France 54,31 (Georges HQ-I, inf, art div).
Rundstedt providing +2 HQ support. No ground support. +14.3 Blitz.

[ax] Resolution.
Fractional=107, yes. 2D10=14. Result=29.
Germany converts the shatter/breakthrough into a retreat.
Assume you wish to save Georges' HQ-I?
If so, VII Inf corps and 105 mm art div lost.

[al] Yes, please save HQ Georges.

[ax] I guess I didn't have a choice where Georges was retreated. He was retreated to the hex directly east of Paris.

[ax] Air rebase. Ef 109 FTR from Bel 53,31 to France 54,31

[ax] Air rebase. Italy. Ca.135 Cagliari, Sardinia to Germany 56,35.

[ax] Air rebase. Japan. Ki-30. Canton to Ichang, China.

[ax] I'll end my impulse here at HQ reorg (Japan).

[ax] Game file 05-MAY-JUN-1940-AXIS-09-EOI.zip sent.
Turn ends on 3 or less.

The Western Front.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. End of Turn.

[ax] Game file 05-MAY-JUN-1940-AXIS-09-EOI.zip sent.
Turn ends on 3 or less.

[al] Got it.

[al] Hrm.

[ax] Say again?

[al] Just looking over the map before ending the phase.

[ax] Is that a good Hrm or a bad Hrm?

[al] Since I was looking at the Western Front... we'll say bad.

[al] 'Tis not a pretty sight. IMO, one more hex gets mulched and the French are kaput.

[al] Okay, ending the phase.

[al] End of turn roll is a 2. Thus endeth the turn.

[al] Partisans:
Korea: 46
China: 58
Malaya: 56
NEI: 82
Burma: 13
India: 75
Indochina: 73

[al] No partisans.

[ax] That's always a good thing if you're the axis.

[al] I think you said earlier that both German chits should go offensive, yes?

[ax] Correct.

[al] Okay. German pact chits in the offensive pools.
- Chit #1 roll of 258, marker value 2.
- Chit #2 roll of 291, marker value 3.
- This message will self-destruct.

[al] USSR draws 1 marker and places it in the defensive pool. It's "face-up", so the marker value is 1 (roll of 128).

[al] US draws 1 marker versus Ge/It.

[al] US passes 4. Intern French aircraft carrier.
To "reveal markers", I will note there are two '1'-value markers in the Ge/It pool, and two "1"-value markers in the Ja pool, allowing the passage of this option.

Tension roll is 5. US moves 1 marker from Ge/It pool into tension.

US chooses not to replace Béarn with a transport, so it goes into the US Construction Pool.

[al] US does not choose any further US entry options.

[al] France, Italy, and China each lost 2 turns' worth of production in the destroyed pool. CW lost 1 turns' worth. Ge lost 1/2 a turn, and Ja lost 1/8th of a turn. (I'm not counting damaged ships, which if memory serves makes things worse for Italy and CW). Pretty good ratio overall for the Axis, save for Italy.

[ax] Interesting. Thanks for providing!

Destroyed and Repair Pools.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. End of Turn. (continued).

[ax] Axis Final Production (same as preliminary) is:
Germany. 22 PP's x 0.75 = 17 BP's. 2 sent to USSR. 4 oil RP saved.
Italy. 6 PP's x 0.75 = 5 BP's. 1 oil RP saved.
Japan. 17 x 1 = 17 PP's. 1 sent to USA. 1 oil RP saved.

[ax] Axis Stay at Sea/RTB.
(1) All axis CP's stay at sea.
(2) German sub North Sea returns to Kiel.
(3) Italy. Italian Coast. FTR2, CA 1 box to 0-box.
(4) Italian subs return to Malta.
(5) Both Italian Transports in Italian Coast return to Malta.

[al] Axis Prelim production confirmed, as is Axis stay-at-sea. (RTBs to come.)

[al] Allied Stay at Sea/RTB
(1) US/USSR/CW cps stay at sea.
(2) US TRS in Polynesia RTB to San Diego.
(3) Fr cps in Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and South China Sea RTB to
(4) Fr cruiser Suffren (in Gulf of Guinea) RTB to Libreville, Gabon.
(5) Fr TRS in Bay of Biscay RTB to Bingerville, Côte d'Ivoire.
(6) Dutch TRS in Bay of Bengal RTB to Bombay.
(7) Queens in Arabian Sea RTB to Gibraltar.
(8) HMS Rodney and Effingham (in Cape Verde Basin) RTB to Cape Town, South Africa.
(9) HMS Exeter and Edinburg stay at sea in North Atlantic, while Hermes, Ramilles, and Norfolk RTB to Liverpool and Terror RTBs to Halifax.
(10) HMS Belfast and Devonshire stay at sea in Cape St Vincent, while Resolution, Dorsetshire, and Erebus RTB to Gibraltar and the Polish destroyer flotilla RTBs to Freetown, Sierra Leone.
(11) HMS London and Glasgow stay at sea in Bay of Biscay, while Valiant, Southampton and Dutch cruiser Sumatra RTB to Liverpool and the NAV RTBs to Gibraltar.
(12) HMS Hawkins and Fiji stay at sea in North Sea. Remaining fleet there RTBs to Plymouth.
(13) Subs in Italian Coast RTB to Gibraltar.
(14) Dutch cruiser Java stays at sea in W Med, remaining fleet there RTBs to Gibraltar.
(15) HMS Liverpool and HMAS Shropshire stay at sea in E Med, while Eagle, Malaya, and Revenge RTB to Port Said.

[al] Oh, where do you want the stuff in the Italian Coast 0 box to go - Malta?

[ax] Yes please.

[al] Axis RTB completed as instructed.

[ax] copy that.

[al] Since I forgot to actually say where the French cps were going, they're going to Seychelles.

[al] Next up - oil!

[ax] Use Oil. Germany. 3.9 Need. All reorganized using saved oil: Prague, Hamburg, Warsaw x 2.

[ax] Use Oil. Italy. 1.3 Need. All reorg by spending 1 saved oil in Rome.

[ax] Japan. 1.2 Need. All reorg by spending 1 save oil in Tokyo.

[al] Allied Oil Use
USSR doesn't need to use oil.
China: spends 0 oil (0.4 to reorg HQ Chiang, leaving HQ Mao disorganised).
Commonwealth: Needs 4.6 oil. Expends 5 oil (Halifax, Cairo, Calcutta x2, Dehli).
France: Needs 1.75 oil. Expends 2 oil in Damascus.
USA: Needs 0.2 oil. Expends 0 oil to reorg 2x TRS.

Use Oil. Axis.