A tale from '42 - AlbertN vs MSAG

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: Stamb

In my GC vs AI i was using depot #1 to the west of Berlin to give supply to a flak, otherwise it is pretty hard or even impossible to refit them.
And when depots will get to a full capacity there - they will not drain any freight any more, i guess...

May or may not drain it but it will for DAMN sure move it around. And every time it is moved around you will have a lose of freight. I saw this in my games and quickly realized what I needed to do.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

I would recommend "Danzig" over Stettin any day of the week for your export port. Plus I would set one export port only and one import port only for sea transport of freight in the specific zone. Of course we chatted about that on Discord already But yeah Danzig >> Stetting in my book.

[AlbertN]

T78 - Soviets Advance

German troops defend their ground and inflict severe casualties, but get forced to retreat.

With the retreat a good % of the gun losses is part of the bigger calibers (150s for instance) that are hard to replace, and veichles.

The story happens here, and starts to dot many spots of the front.

The Soviets aptly advance with just a division, a sacrificial lamb to protect their more noteworthy and strong units.

Numbers pulled out are quite alarming, a Soviet Corps with 32 CV (plus the SUs)... in the combat lot.

On map the Panzers are put to shame by Infantries, the SS (That I remember you have 3 Pz. Battallions SU within) barely hold a bigger number of nominal CV.

The artificial 'quality' of Russians and 'dequality' of Germans is neatly felt here already before the NM hit to come in '43.
To me it is definitely an off putting notion for the game as here my reply ...

A) Attack the weak formation / sacrificial lamb (But lose 50% of the CCP and wear my troops)
B) Do nothing and wait for the next attack at the terms of the Russians

At least it is no disaster but that's also how I'd play if I was the Russians.
But as a German, when you advance, you cannot really toss a regiment forward for it to be smashed because you'd give Guard Promotions stuff to your opponent and Axis is not swimming in replacements.

Maybe I should evaluate to attack the 16-16 stack but I suspect if I do that I'll lose lots of tanks and troops that I can hardly replace.

[AlbertN]

T78 - Soviet Advance

The Hungarians barely hold against an Soviet Corp, at the cost of the fortifications to be shrinking.

Nimble Russian cavalry wrap around a German division with fortified zone, and said division is subsequently routed by frontal attack.

This is the weakest sector of the Axis front entirely and must receive troops from somewhere else. It appears the brunt of the Soviet winter attack is to develop from Tambov to Rostov. For now at least.

[AlbertN]

T78 - Soviet Advance

Even the 'fresh' high TOE Panzer divisions cannot hold their ground. Given, they arrived to patch the front. That one moved from Rostov to there in pratically -3- turns. (It was one of the 4 shown at Stalino zone some turns ago)

The G.D. Elite included, that sure marched a grand amount of distance through turns from the Caucasus where it was operating - was worth a spittle of CV compared to the triumphant Soviet Corps.

Another of the Panzer division, kept in reserve, intervened and lost 40+ Panzer in a successful (only one) defensive combat.

The amount of 150s being destroyed in the retreats skyrocketed here, going well well past the weekly production of that type of gun. And I so expect for a variety of 'heavy hitters'.

Here as well the Russians tend to screen their relevant formations with less prominent ones (well maybe not so much for the Guard cavalry corps) so that they can better recover fatigue (I assume at least) and CCPs if they have movement left if not adjacent to enemy hexes and on their own original hexes.

That's the last of the zone of operations of Soviet offensives for now.

There may not be a grand encirclement yet but it's clear a supposedly weaker Soviet needs not to wait for some Axis dilution and hammer on the Axis minors to achieve a result as per history - but can lead a multiple thread offensive and bleed the Germans directly.

The situation is only to worsen on the Axis field due to the looming National Morale drop. In general it's very, very discomforting.

[AlbertN]

T78 - Maikop Repairs

For all it may be relevant, as long as 'enough' freight arrives in the depot, the repairs go beyond the 1%.

I do not know what is exactly the 'enough' level but 200ish gave me 1% advance and 400+ gave me a larger jump of % in repair.

I needed to airlift it into the Depot as otherwise if it is a non 4 Priority gets 0, and if it is a 4 Priority it has troops closeby and distributes the freight to the troops.

I think this solves the repair business limited to 1% as I've tried and tinkered and drew my own conclusions at least.

I'd suggest designers, if you read this, that if there is something on 'Priority Repair', the location draws freight in order to repair whatever is desired to be repaired at the maximum speed / percentage allowed. Because the only thing I can deduct is that there was no Freight for repairs and thus was proceeding as slow as a slug. (Pratically a 'material shortage' effect).

[AlbertN]

T78 - 'Panzer' Reasoning

Sorry for pool quality, big collage.

Here the two battles that included the Panzers in the Don River sector.
They're both with the 'Destroyed Damaged' enabled so that players can see the real destroyed elements.
I only recently discovered what that is and it enables the player to see the elements that were only damaged in battle but that after the battle were destroyed. I am not sure of the logic, I assume it's like a panzer that gets hit at the tracks, can keep firing during the battle but it is not salvageable afterwards - or something like that?

So in truth it's 50 in the first battle and overf 150 in the latter.
So the 30 and 114 figures are rather sugarcoated. We speak of 200 AFV gone, in 2 battles.

To the side you can see the Active Pool and the production.
Anything with a # should be 'old' in terms of production and pretty much not produced anymore or about to get substituted by other products.
26 PzIIIm, 44 PzIvg, 12 PzIIIn ... (Tigers do not fit in Panzer Divisions); and then assault guns and panzerjagers.

If I subtract the 50ish Stug or PzJager from that combat I still face a 150 real panzers loss vs a production of 80 a turn.
A 2:1 ratio. Across 2 single battles there, one of them where the Germans 'won'.

If I barely operate some more around and do some counterattacks and the like the armoured losses will only accrue.

And that single Stalingrad factory alone, that I never destroyed, pratically churns out 70 T34s a turn whilst Germany as nation whole produces 80 non Tiger panzers a turn.

I am not questioning production models or numbers, more like how Panzer smoke themselves in thin air.

Getting now to process the turn proper.

[gingerbread]

Very strange that 202 T-34 can be destroyed when there are only 180 participating. Are AFV that are damaged before the battle targetable? Then the result shown is possible.

The same can be said for the Stug's but some of those were lost to RTR.

[AlbertN]

@Gingerbread: I've not even realized that. Good pointing out. I am not sure if it's a double-dip out of 'Destroyed Damaged' but I do not think it should be even possible...

T78 - What to do?

At first I decided to shove away a shielding division here.

But then I had the rather depressing idea to check the Supply ticker / label.
Only to see that the Soviets have massive supplies poured in - pratically ALL of their units have a green label except 1.
Germans are starving to death if one looks at the colours there.
Yet we both have -1- single rail delivering supplies and I am sure I do not have more mouths to feed or more guns to ammo up than the Soviets in the sector.

The distance from Berlin should be non relevant by now as Freight go via pitstops at worst. So the matter is just how much freight can be movimented per turn.

Local depots here just do not receive freight in any remotely close need to supply the troops.
That sets them to enter in a cycle of defeat-fatigue-defeat-lower morale-fatigue of certain destruction.

There should not be a need to play 'depot-priority-jackpot-gamble-guess' game to signal the system 'I need supplies here: use this railroad to its capacity' (which I'd expect it to go yellow, at least, usage colour wise).

[Jango32]

The Soviets never have logistics issues as early as turn 3 of the grand campaign. So it is not surprising that all of them are in the green.

Allegedly they have logistical problems when they enter Poland, but I am unsure of that.

[Stamb]

I think Soviets needs only 30% supply as other 70% they take from a ground of Motherland, even if it is covered under few meters of snow and frozen, + vodka

Any options of making super depot here ?

[AlbertN]

T78 - Post Air Supply

Some counterattacks where made to at least keep the 'soak up' formations thinned down.

Two mauled divisions retreated to rearguard and pratically with that the whole of the local Axis reserves have been cast into the fray.

I am clueless on what to do about the supplies and logistic situation by now there, so I expect a forced retreat soon enough because the German forces cannot fight adequately. Railhead or not it matters not if the logistic system fuels 1000 or 2000 freight into that railroad only when it could ferry in much more.

Air supply poured some supply here and there but never adequately enough.

And I have to expect some Hungarian mauling next turn too. But I was bringing there the Pz and Mot division from the Leningrad sector. Far from enough to stem the Soviet advancing onslaught.

Some greenish triangles appeared, but nothing is as green as these Soviet troops that seem to have a holiday vacation in terms of how much they receive, to be at the frontlines.

I start to understand better via these images why folks were saying things like SOviets have no logistical issues.

[AlbertN]

@Stamb: There was a Super Depot but on a lvl 1 Railyard it pulls little to nothing, less than a Port Depot.
I moved the FBD to a Railyard level 2, but then it's far from the front and trucks are back to playing Destruction Derby.

Also for reasons I get infantry divisions with bazillion of fuel and low supply. It's like they also get the wrong things, but it may be a case of me having attached motorized SUs there (more like Stug Battallions to beef them up).

T78 Leningrad

Rejoice, Rejoice (not).

We gained a hex, it was a low fortified clear hex. There was the hope for these divisions to surrender once and for good, but they retreated instead and not will have to be fought in Urban territory...

[AlbertN]

T78 - Patching Up...

Here too the Panzers had to take over the frontline duty.

I've some bits of the line held by regiments. Which I believe it is what is considered 'normal'.
But regiments fluctuate from 3 to 6 of nominal CV.
Where by now the Soviets have 20-30 strong units on a regular basis anywhere it matters for them.

As soon as I strip some zone they can also pour troops from the reserves. Axis to 'create' a rearline must ferry thing on and about.

It's like two different gameplays, the A serie gameplay, and the B serie gameplay. At multiple levels.

Even if I was to regiment down all the North Front in the thick forests and let's say gain, 5 or 6 German divisions and I rail them away - the Soviets can simply pop out there a massive force and smack my line cheaply.

With I do not know how many 'Brigades' units that can beef up other units as SU ontop of the normal reserves, they can shift around their punching capability in little to no time, I feel.

I expect 1 or 2 more hexes to be obliterated from the Soviets.

Units that get retreated drop to like, 2 CV. And they remain 2 CV because the supplies are so low that damaged stuff remain damaged and fatigue levels remain mighty high.

That is why so quickly any infantry division that was kept behind was spent ahead on T1, and on T2 the panzers had to move in. And next turn what? Retreating most probably.

I've started to shift some units via rail but since Axis has the rail problem ...

Going to proceed to review the admin stuff for the turn and sealing it.
But the logistic situation beyond my control frustrates me into oblivion - the hammered divisions simply do not recover and I see it extremely dark already since end of '42 without a Stalingrad even remotely on the horizons. Just grand frontal assaults that demolish the Axis formations. Soviet formations bleed hard but it just seem they can ram again the next turn.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

This continues to be an exceptional AAR - kudos [:)]!

Re the Soviet supply situation vs your own, I imagine they are benefiting from the Size 9 Railyard at Stalingrad. You don't really have anything to match that in this area so you are always going to be fighting at a supply disadvantage. I think you will likely see the situation turned on its head as you retreat towards the big railyard in Rostov and the double rail lines that supply the smaller railyards around the Donets Basin.

While I empathise with the feeling of discouragement as you feel the initiative switch and see those very strong Rifle Corps I actually think you are still in a very strong position. Your opponent is getting some local success and wearing down some of your units in those areas but IMHO he is going for the low hanging fruit to an extent? If he doesn't start putting pressure on elsewhere on the map you should be able to cycle rested/recuperated divisions down from Leningrad/Moscow and at least keep things under control in the South even if you have to retreat gradually. I think if you have a N-S rail-line you should be able to use that for unit transfers without causing too many problems to your W->E freight lines.

By the looks of things you have enough space to give up so that by the time you have retreated to the Rostov/Donets river line in late spring the river should be unfrozen and you should be able to hold things up for a good while there.

Keep fighting and keeping up the good work with the AAR!

[Joel Billings]

Forgive me if you posted this somewhere in the AAR, but what is your HWM? You are in a very strong situation relative to history, with a million extra Germans while your opponent is short by up to 1/2 million depending on what's in his pool. You seem to be inflicting very high losses on him.

[AlbertN]

@Joel - 710ish. -- Bear in mind from start up to May '42 this was played with the 'Artillery Beta'. -- My idea is to try to keep that til I grab Leningrad, if I manage to.
The high losses are because presently we're under 'Defender Patch' I believe. I've made the point some turns ago when the patch came out, it seems the attacker do very few HPE and the defender many many.

@Sammy - Retreat will be gradual, but already to lose Rhyazan and Voronhez pratically will wash away the feat to have seized Leningrad in terms of high watermark. So supposedly I should try to hold the grounds or content myself with the current High Watermark. As this is my first game so late I am clueless how much in terms of VPs the Soviets will rack up and how quickly.

My perception is that the German situation will be fracturing well faster BUT I do not know the Soviet end of the production. I just see they have pratically no lgostical issues.

So their 'small' army seem to have excellent supplies while German can even have a larger army than historical but simply they cannot supply it adequately (and that I think due to the logistic system priorities more than to freight limits).

[Sammy5IsAlive]

It's not an exact science given TB/early capture bonuses but to give you an idea loki was at 705VPs playing Soviets at this point fb.asp?m=4972508

[AlbertN]

T79 - Storming Leningrad North

Not the VP point but ... got it. Oddly, at 1.8.

It has been a bloodshed AND for this turn the Air Supply by the Soviets was not enough to keep them out of Isolation.
I am unsure if the mix of Flak effect and other factors (damaged airplanes out of weather?) have thinned down the Li-2 Fleet or else.
There have been Air Supply mission just the air fleet of Li-2 was not as large as usual.

I even recurred to Heavy Artilleries there - such as the 'Karl Franz' mortars (forgive my Warhammerian nicknaming them) - and of 4 present 1 was destroyed and 3 damaged. That is quite the hammering hit, that the enemy managed to blast them away with counterbattery fire?

I suspect these units can only harbour the 'Karl Franz' so I assume somewhen it may be smart to disband one IF there are two at 50% TOE (Since each can keep 2 of these), I assume 1 is returned to the pool on Disband and then makes a return to the other unit?
I do not know in that case if it goes in the Transit Pool. Then I'd not know how it would work, because 25% of 1 is 0.25. It risks to remain stuck there forever. I actually do not know where a 'Disband' sends the stuff, to the Pool. Yes. But the Active or the Transit?

Probably that can be a good way to track how Disband works, to do it with an almost unique piece.

Anyhow it has been a massive bloodshed, that battle.

The battle engine is particular - a huge chunk of gun loss for Germans are the Anti-Tank guns, and well Flak too (that was attached to the divisions for the Air Supply stuff).

The 'Defender Patch' here shines. The Soviet losses before the 'surrender' were half of the Germans. (I assume the Germans just disabled a bucket and due to prolonged isolation / low supplies forced a surrender? Here I am not sure).

The HPE in general are massively low for the attacker, no matter their level of experience or so. And very high for the supposedly somehow starved (so I think at least, Leningrad is cut since long long and relying on air supply...).

For the German part note here that 50 mm mortars seem decently efficient in attack, and so are the Panzer-Pioneer. - I believe they're 'offensive tools' because in some defensive battles they're useless, or so it was in this turn for sure.

[AlbertN]

T79 - Around Tambov

Here the Soviet advance this turn was stalled.

Here you can see down below the Soviets, their Guard forces that were held at bay (given a Panzer division intervened, as it was a reserve, but take note the non entrenched Panzer division contributed only 93 starting CV vs the almost 200 of the entrenched Infantry divisions - that before the fort decay though).

If we check the Hit per Element of the Soviets, that is very low. Now I may feel the numbers somehow correct there as the Soviets used forms of 'mass combat'. But then the Germans have insanely high (averagely) numbers in comparison.

We have some oddities there - like the Panzer Pioneer squads, the 50mm Mortars and other German weapon systems that hit nothing defensively or barely fire? Or do not fire at all, these 160mm Stielgrenade guns firing 0 ammos, and thus hitting 0 targets?

Now I do not know the ins and outs of combat. I assume if some element is hit before they get in range, they may not fire. - Like artilleries fire first and if the mortars are disabled they won't fire! But that the 100% of some ground element was disabled before any could fire... I do not know.

This combat though has been held in CLEAR terrain, with HEAVY SNOW / BLIZZARD. While the previous one was URBAN and SNOW.