GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #12. The Western Front.

Reorg.

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End of Impulse.

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End of Turn Check (coming up).
(1) 80% chance turn ends.
(2) Last impulse, Germany gambled turn ending on their impulse also with 80% chance and it didn't.
(3) And then snow hit in both the West and, more significantly, in the East.
(4) This gave the Western allies 4 land combats and the Soviets 7 land combats versus Germany.
(5) Land combats that while at times for the Soviets rolls weren't that great all resulted in victories, inflicted significant losses on Germany and have torn big holes in their lines in the East and West.
(6) The US played 4 O-chits (1 super, 3 land w/double), CW 2 (1 super, 1 land w/double), USSR 1 (land w/double) this impulse.
(7) While the allies have exhausted their supply of O-chits, next turn the US gets another 4, CW 2 and USSR 2.

[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Weather & Actions. Summary.
(1) (Allied #14) Turn ends on D10 = 4 (8 or less to end).
(2) 4 allied, 3 axis, 7 total impulses.
(3) Initiative shifts to AX+1 and AX win tie (Axis 64% first roll, 55% if reroll, 83.8% overall if willing to reroll).

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KIA Report.

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Destroyed.

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Ships/Boats in Dry Dock & Damaged This Turn.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Partisans.

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Balkans.
(1) PPU=5,14 -> 4-2 YUG (CW) partisan -> island of Cres only place.

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Eastern Front.
(2) PPU=3,10,2,14 -> 4,2, 0-2, 2-2 Soviet partisans -> 4-2 -> Pskov -> overruns Luftwaffe airbase. 2-2 -> Belorussia 48,51. 0-2 -> Pripet 49,51.
(3) Ju 87B Stuka & PIL were destroyed. Ju 87B Stuka, belonging to Germany, was overrun.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Use Oil.

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Isolated (unable to reorg).

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Breakdown Armies/Corps.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Factory Destruction.
None.

Conquest. Liberation.

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Asian Theater. Formosa.

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Western Front. France. Belgium. Denmark.

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West Africa. Niger Colony.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Economics.

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Production Spiral.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Air Reserve & Ships/Boats Construction Pools.

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Atomic Bomb.
(1) US has an atomic bomb in their reserve pool.
(2) Last turn, I overlooked that the US is getting 2 bombers in next turn (35MJ45) reinforcements with the necessary strategic factors (9 or more) to transport and drop the bomb.
(3) So the Atomic age may be coming two turns earlier than previous thought (i.e., 35MJ45 vs 37SO45).
(4) Though it will certainly take a turn (minimum) to get the bomb out to Pacific Theater.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Economic Plots.
(1) Soviet war production (gross BPs) has nearly caught up with that of the CW.
(2) US war production is outpacing everyone else.
(3) German's a distance second but well ahead of everyone else (except US).
(4) US armed force size (net BPs) is also well ahead of everyone else, followed by the CW.
(5) While the CW is a distance second (net BPs) they're well ahead of everyone else (except the US).
(6) Both the CW and US started the war with the largest armed forces and well ahead of everybody due primarily due to their navies.
(7) The Soviets armed forces (net BPs) passed Germany's this turn.
(8) The USA, CW, USSR armed forces all continue to grow, even though they expended 7 O-chits this turn between the three!
(9) Germany's and Japan's decline continues.
Cumulative BPs.
Gross.

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Net.

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Per Turn BPs.
Gross.

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Net.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Oil Plots.
(1) It takes a LOT of oil to run a modern army, navy and airforce!
(2) Especially if you're the US and CW fighting across the entire world!
Income.

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Stockpile.

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Reorg.
Need.

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Used.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Combat Logs.
Turn.

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All Turns.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Global Maps.
Control.

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Units.

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Active Axis.

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Active Allied.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. End of Turn.

Victory Totals.
(1) As stated previously, while this game may continue past turn 36, Jul/Aug 1945; the final scoring & victory determination will be made at the end of turn 36.
(2) I've decided on five "teams" for scoring and victory.
(3) Germany, Italy, Japan, USSR and Democratic Allied.
(4) The first 4 are individual major powers and the 5th (Democratic Allied) are the Western Allies plus Nationalist China.
(5) Note that the CCP is already included with the USSR.
(6) I struggle a bit with how to handle (Nationalist) China; but it made sense to me to include them with the Western Allies (hence Democratic Allied).
(7) Though, I'm not too sure how "democratic" Chiang's government is/was.
(8) Well, but for this game it makes sense as it was the US & CW that liberate and returned Shanghai to the Nationalist.
(9) And if Chunking is to be liberate in the next 2 turns, it'll either be by the CCP or the Western Allies.
(10) So these 5 teams make sense (to me at least).
(11) Germany is still in 1st place with 4.5 pts to the second place Democratic Allied with 3 pts.
(12) The Soviets need to step up their game as they're in a distance 3rd with -3 pts.
(13) Then in 4th, and will definitely finish in 4th, is Japan at -4.5.
(14) Then in a confirmed 5th place is Italy who was completely conquered at the end of turn 22, Mar/Apr 1943.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Start of Turn.

Reinforcements.

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Trade.

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Initiative.
Weather Forecast.

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Voting & Instructions.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Axis #1. Impulse #241.

Initiative.
(1) Initiative Roll #1 (Axis+1 & win tie) (B/G=AX/AL): AX=10+1=11, AL=8 -> Axis win the initiative and elect to move first.
(2) Weather D10=8, fine across the map, Adv=1, DRM=0.

Weather & Actions.
(3) Germany - land.
(4) Japan - naval.

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Call Out Reserves.
(5) France calls out their reserves.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Axis #1.

IJN Naval Moves.
(1) IJN moves were make with the objective of maximizing the chance of holding onto the objective cities of Diego Suarez, Madagascar and Chungking, China through the end of next turn, when final scores are calculated.
(2) To accomplish this specifically, the IJN moved available ships and I-boats to disrupt / delay the allies in their efforts to take either of these two objective cities.
(3) Three IJN task forces moved from Fukuoka to the China Sea[4][3][0].
(4) Supply was restored to the IJN/IJA army outside of Shanghai, who's primary reason is to interdict/delay any Western Allied effort to capture Chungking.
(5) IJN Sub Squadron pairs moved from Tokyo to the South China Sea & Bay of Bengal.
China Sea.

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South China Sea & Bay of Bengal.
(6) These I-boat squadrons sole mission is to stop/disrupt any attempt by the Western Allies to capture Diego Suarez.

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Naval Search.
(5) As much as Japanese task force and I-boat squadron commander want to fight they're under strict orders to lay in wait from their primary mission, so no searches.
(1/3) South China Sea.
(6) No search by IJN, and since only I-boats, no combat.

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(2/3) Bay of Bengal.
(7) No search by IJN, and since only I-boats, no combat.

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(3/3) China Sea.
(8) No search by IJN.
(9) Will the USN risk search?

[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Axis #1. Naval Search.

China Sea (Non-Phasing).
(1) [fine, non-phasing] USN CV Yorktown II searches.
(2) Air reaction.
(a) IJA Ki-27 F2, Ki-27 F2 -> [0]
(b) USAAF P-38 F2 -> [0]
(c) USN PBY-1 Catalina N3 -> [3].
(4) French do NOT commit subs.
(5) Search(P/W=AL/AX): USN/RN/FF=10, IJN=6 -> IJN[4] find and their task force commander wants to fight so badly but his honor and his unwavering dedication to the emperor's wishes dictates that they avoid in favor of their primary (sole) mission
(6) IJN TF commander selects AL[0], use 4/9 SPs to avoid.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Axis #1.

V-1 Attack. Brussels, Belgium.
(1) [clear, fine, opposed] V-1 vs Belgium (1 red fac). 50% chance hit pre intercept.
(2) USAAF F4F-3 intercept. Air-to-Air RD1(NA AX/-4 AL): USAAF=13 -> AC -> Only one unit to choose: V-1, primary reason for intercept was to deny +1 to strat D10.
(3) V1 attack RES -> D10=5 -> missed. V-1 & PIL were destroyed.
(4) Note that PIL is destroyed as no increase in number of German reserve pilots.
(5) However; PIL does NOT show up (either) in the destroyed count (cosmetic bug assuming PIL should be destroyed after a V-1 attack).

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[rkr1958]

Turn 35. May/June 1945. Axis #1. Western & Balkan Fronts.

Wehrmacht Spoiling Artillery Attacks (Ground Strikes).
(1/2) Hamburg, Germany.
(1) [clear, fine, artillery] German 172.5 mm arty div(5) vs
(a) RAF Spitfire XIV=5 (flipped)
(b) US XV Mech=2 (flipped)
(c) UK WDF armor=1 (flipped)
(d) UK Wolverine TD div=6 (missed).
(2) A devastating artillery strike!
(3) Actual flips =3 > Expected flips = 2 by +1.

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(2/2) Hungary 58,44.
(4) [clear, fine, artillery] Germany Hummel SP gun div(4) vs
(a) UK I corps=3 (flipped)
(c) UK 7.2 in arty div=5 (missed).
(5) Actual flips = 1 < Expected flips = 1.2 by -0.2.

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[Falken]

Great work Ronnie. Been reading this pretty much everyday.
Amazing to see a game go this far. Nice to see the word "liberated" once in a while
Your spreadsheet seems to have gotten some good updates, including the CONQ values.

Thanks for this. Really helps in our learning the game.

BTW.. have you heard if any new post v7.0 versions are coming out?

[rkr1958]

Great work Ronnie. Been reading this pretty much everyday.
Amazing to see a game go this far. Nice to see the word "liberated" once in a while
Your spreadsheet seems to have gotten some good updates, including the CONQ values.

Thanks for this. Really helps in our learning the game.

BTW.. have you heard if any new post v7.0 versions are coming out?

Thanks for following! I find this stage of the game very addictive, like getting to the last part of a mystery novel. I just can't put it down.

In terms of a post v7.0, I'd guess yes. The current version we testers are on is 7.0.0.7. Not sure when the next version for the testers or a public beta release will be.