MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

At the beginning of Impulse #5, here's the situation in France:

HQ-I Billotte is holding down Paris with 12 factors (14 vs. Armor), and there isn't much else left in the area to help out.

For the CW, HQ-I Gort is going to pull back to Ruoen and await the transport fleet to get him out of there. There's only one problem -- The Germans forced the CW holding fleet in the North Sea to abort to Plymouth. That means Gort may have to remain in France for at least two more impulses, particularly if the weather remains bad enough to prevent Naval Air Combat. The CW needs a Combined or Land Action right now to get him into position to be pulled out, and then they'll need a Naval Action to actually retrieve him. The problem is that Germany has a strong fleet in the North Sea 4 Box, and the CW can't match it without its CVP, since the majority of the heavy BBs went to Gibraltar to take on the Italians in the Med.

Some of them could get back to defend the 1 Box, and some can get to the 2 Box, which could be good enough to defend the TRS needed to take Gort back to the UK, but is it worth the risk? The next weather roll might tell, but if the CW chooses a Combined Action, it might need to move those ships now. The other option is to wait for better weather and hope Gort survives that long.

For the French, there's little to do. The GARR beneath Billotte will swap with the 6-4 INF, and I don't know if there's any other move worth making.

Allies:

I would pull both CW units back to Rouen and move the 7-4 into the hex next to Paris. Then move Georges into Paris and both Billotte and the garrison unit into the hex held by the 6-4. The 6-4 moves into Paris.

I believe this maximizes the likelihood of holding Paris for this turn. Losing the CW 7-4 motorized is worth it if the French can hold out for another turn - even another impulse.

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Axis:

But the Germans should start moving units to the east via rail if you are planning on a 1940 Barbarossa. Rebasing as many air units as possible east is also important. Have any air units you fly return to base in cities. That way they have the option to move eastwards by rail next turn.

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Playing WIF well means executing dozens of these "small efficiencies" when you move your units. In the aggregate they can make a big difference in the game's outcome.

[Red Prince]

I actually did something right with the Axis here. I only had one rail move available because it was a Combined impulse, but I used it to send a MIL from Leipzig to Memel, knowing that the Soviets can't wait much longer to claim the Baltic States. Yay!
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Edit: I'll buy into the suggestion Steve makes about redisposition of units. He's done well so far by the French, buying them an extra turn at least (compared to what I had planned).

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I actually did something right with the Axis here. I only had one rail move available because it was a Combined impulse, but I used it to send a MIL from Leipzig to Memel, knowing that the Soviets can't wait much longer to claim the Baltic States. Yay!
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Edit: I'll buy into the suggestion Steve makes about redisposition of units. He's done well so far by the French, buying them an extra turn at least (compared to what I had planned).

I don't buy it at all. The further defense of Paris means that France will get conquered by the Germans... I suggest you read my post on the last page...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I actually did something right with the Axis here. I only had one rail move available because it was a Combined impulse, but I used it to send a MIL from Leipzig to Memel, knowing that the Soviets can't wait much longer to claim the Baltic States. Yay!
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Edit: I'll buy into the suggestion Steve makes about redisposition of units. He's done well so far by the French, buying them an extra turn at least (compared to what I had planned).

I don't buy it at all. The further defense of Paris means that France will get conquered by the Germans... I suggest you read my post on the last page...

I thought I did, but it seems you added to it. [;)]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur


One point you mentioned is that the German Fleet is in the North Sea and that there isn't a CW Fleet able to kill them... I'm terribly sorry, but that is a mistake on you're part:
You should never commit the whole CW fleet in one area. Even without a strong force to counter any German fleet actions, there is enough left to use aggressively against the Italians. Even more, if you've moved the Pacific Fleet to Port Said last turn...
Normally, the Home Fleet I use as the CW is always staying in England and is at least of the same strength as the total German fleet. I than add at least one CV and have a NAV, to get air superiority... In Storm/Blizzard, I'll go for the Surface combat and blow those precious German ships out of the water. Admiral Reader isn't going to like that at all, so he usually stays in port...
The one thing the CW can affort to lose is BB's. The number he's got (and can repair too) is quite high, compared with both the Italian and German fleet at start.

There is a CW fleet or two in the area, but it would be risky to use them -- too many CVs at stake, and not a high enough box. The fleet that returned from Gibraltar is strong enough to defend the TRS, so I don't see this as a mistake. It was the weather that made the CV fleet less effective, and I actually didn't expect the Germans to sail the fleet so early. You have to make some educated guesses. It looked like a good shot at eliminating the Italian fleet.
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Edit: It is unlikely that the BEF can get down south before the Germans can get there. They are just too slow moving, and would require too many Land or Combined impulses in a row.

[Red Prince]

Since the 7-6 ARM is the only unit coming into the game (on the spiral) that the French have, I don't see much point in trying to abandon Paris and defend in the south. Germany can then take Paris much more easily and just declare Vichy, if that seems best. Also, I've decided not to move the MTN into Lyons. It is currently blocking the Germans, is protected by a river on all sides from which an attack might come, and might still be able to rail out to Toulouse if that seems wise.

The new weather roll was not terrific for the Axis, but it will do well enough. Mobility is not hindered so much, and there might be a way to get some good attacks in. Things probably aren't looking so good for Italy or Japan, but we'll deal with that when we come to it. It's likely to be Land Actions all around, since I have a lot of shuffling to do in France and a number of troops to debark for the other Axis powers.

Chances of the turn ending now are relatively slim (30%), but the rolls for the last two turns have been low, so who knows?

[Red Prince]

I forgot to post the US Entry chit summary from N/D '39, so here it is:

Impulse: 8
Japan moves into Hengyang; USE-7 (no chit, Oil captured)
Japan takes Kweilin; USE-1 (+1 chit, 155 [1])

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Ge/It Entry Pool (1959 [3])
USA chooses Resources to Western Allies (Ge/It-6); USE-3 (1 chit moved, 4 of 4 [4])
USA chooses Resources to China (Ja-4); USE-2 (1 chit moved, 2 of 5 [1])

[composer99]

If Paris falls this turn I would establish Vichy and head east for a 1940 Barb.

If Paris takes till Mar/Apr 1940 I'm not really sure. Probably take a crack at Spain.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: composer99

If Paris falls this turn I would establish Vichy and head east for a 1940 Barb.

If Paris takes till Mar/Apr 1940 I'm not really sure. Probably take a crack at Spain.

I would only go for a Barbarossa at this point if I am absolutely sure I can DOW Russia in J/A 1940. Start counting garrison points and calculate if that is possible (and count all Russian units, also those in Siberia...). If not, forget it and go for Gibraltar. As the Axis, you don't want to get forced into a sitzkrieg for almost an entire year.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: composer99

If Paris falls this turn I would establish Vichy and head east for a 1940 Barb.

If Paris takes till Mar/Apr 1940 I'm not really sure. Probably take a crack at Spain.

I would only go for a Barbarossa at this point if I am absolutely sure I can DOW Russia in J/A 1940. Start counting garrison points and calculate if that is possible (and count all Russian units, also those in Siberia...). If not, forget it and go for Gibraltar. As the Axis, you don't want to get forced into a sitzkrieg for almost an entire year.

I'm setting up my attacks right now, but Paris isn't going to be one of them, so we'll still have to see. After this impulse, I'll add up the potential Garrison Values for both sides and post them here. Almost all of the Soviet units from Siberia are already either railed or on their way to the German border.

One thing I realized is that I shouldn't claim the Baltic States until next turn, because I don't want to mess up the chances for the US to Gear Up Production this turn. It probably wouldn't alter that, but I'm not going to take the risk.

[Red Prince]

Three attacks by the Germans this impulse, and I'm sure they won't all be considered "correct WiF behavior", but that's me. I like to try things which might create interesting opportunities:



And the results:

Attack on Rouen: Blitz, Fractional Odds .469 (Yes), Roll = 6 = */1B (ART destroyed, converted to Retreat)
Attack on France [56, 30]: Blitz, Roll = 1 = 1/- (ENG destroyed, attackers disorganized)
Attack on France [57, 32]: Assault, Fractional Odds .596 (No), Roll = 2 = 1/1 (INF Division destroyed, attackers gain the hex, but are disorganized)

In all, 3 HQ units attempted to provide HQ Support, but all of them failed.

The first attack, on Rouen, was a tough choice for the CW.

The odds were 6.625:1, reduced by snow to 4.625:1

At 4:1, an Assault gives a 40% chance of repelling the attack, a 70% chance of disorganizing all of the attackers, and a 40% chance of losing both units
At 4:1, a Blitz gives a 30% chance of repelling the attack, a 50% chance of disorganizing all of the attackers, and a 10% chance of losing both units

At 5:1, an Assault gives a 30% chance of repelling the attack, a 50% chance of disorganizing all of the attackers, and a 50% chance of losing both units
At 5:1, a Blitz gives a 10% chance of repelling the attack, a 30% chance of disorganizing all of the attackers, and a 30% chance of losing both units

In all cases, there is a significant chance that units will be Shattered on a B or S result. Germany could change that to an R, hoping to kill of the remaining BEF defender, but there is going to be a base 60% chance for the turn to end after the next Allied impulse, which can be increased to 70% or even 80% if it seems the right thing to do. So, I chose a Blitz attack as the CW, giving HQ-I Gort the best chance to survive.

This turned out to be the right decision (I think), since the same rolls on the Assault CRT would have killed both units. The German choice to retreat HQ-I Gort may be questionable. The reason for that choice was that it forces the CW to wait until next turn to pull him out of France (which might not happen if Germany gets to move first), and it forces the 7-4 MOT to either become a sacrifice or to move while OOS, opening up a hex next to Paris.

As for the other two attacks, the Rolls are starting to even out. Low rolls for both of these mean that the Germans have 2 HQs disorganized. I was counting on at least one of them being available to Reorg units, but you take your chances. I actually thought I was going to have better odds against HQ-I Billotte, but it wouldn't have mattered with that roll. I don't know if you'll agree, but as I see it, no real harm was done.

Of course, you are always welcome to disagree. [:)]
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Edit: The reason I decided to go after Gort instead of the 7-4 MOT is that it was actually a better odds attack, since I could use the German navy . . . and because the ART could have added his bombardment to the MOT, couldn't he?

[Red Prince]

The current situation in Nationalist China:

HQ-I Chiang is stacked with the 5-3 INF, and he will be able to get back into supply, by moving the INF while OOS, but that should be fine. The 3-3 INF should also be able to get back into supply, and the Chinese have 2 GARR units coming in at the start of M/A '40, so they aren't out of it yet.

[Red Prince]

And here's how things look in France right now. The turn very nearly did end with another low roll (a '4' at 30% chances), but it didn't. So, the Allies have a decision to make: choose one nation to make some moves and increase the odds to 70%, all Pass for 80% odds, or hope for the 60% odds to work in their favor.

The stacks of Germans in the north are strong and still kicking. The rest of the stacks are mostly disorganized.

[Red Prince]

And, as promised, here are the unit counts for the USSR and Germany:

USSR
1 x FTR = 1
5 x LND = 5
12 x Corps = 12
7 x Division = 3.5
1 x MECH = 2
1 x HQ-A = 2

Total = 25.5 + 4 Defensive markers = 29.5 x 2 = 59

Germany
6 x FTR = 6
1 x NAV = 1
7 x LND = 7
1 x ATR = 1
32 x Corps = 32
3 x SS Corps = 6
7 x Division = 3.5
1 x MTN = 2
1 x HQ-A = 2
2 x MECH = 4
2 x ARM = 4

Total = 68.5 + 14 Offensive markers = 82.5

Add in the Rumanian units about to come into play, and you get roughly 8 more points, plus 2 more markers at the end of each turn.

In M/A '40, the Germans have a FTR and PARA coming in, and the USSR has 2 INF and a Pilot
In M/J '40, the Germans have HQ-A Guderian, a MTN Division, a MECH Division and 2 Pilots, and the USSR has a LND and a Pilot
In J/A '40, neither country has anything useful for Garrison Values yet.

Of course, the Germans would need to leave some units behind for Garrison purposes in France and the Low Countries, and they'll want to help with the attack on Greece, too.

So, do you think that with good weather to move the troops over to the border a '40 Barbarossa could begin in M/J '40? Or even J/A '40?

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

And, as promised, here are the unit counts for the USSR and Germany:

USSR
1 x FTR = 1
5 x LND = 5
12 x Corps = 12
7 x Division = 3.5
1 x MECH = 2
1 x HQ-A = 2

Total = 25.5 + 4 Defensive markers = 29.5 x 2 = 59

Germany
6 x FTR = 6
1 x NAV = 1
7 x LND = 7
1 x ATR = 1
32 x Corps = 32
3 x SS Corps = 6
7 x Division = 3.5
1 x MTN = 2
1 x HQ-A = 2
2 x MECH = 4
2 x ARM = 4

Total = 68.5 + 14 Offensive markers = 82.5

Add in the Rumanian units about to come into play, and you get roughly 8 more points, plus 2 more markers at the end of each turn.

In M/A '40, the Germans have a FTR and PARA coming in, and the USSR has 2 INF and a Pilot
In M/J '40, the Germans have HQ-A Guderian, a MTN Division, a MECH Division and 2 Pilots, and the USSR has a LND and a Pilot
In J/A '40, neither country has anything useful for Garrison Values yet.

Of course, the Germans would need to leave some units behind for Garrison purposes in France and the Low Countries, and they'll want to help with the attack on Greece, too.

So, do you think that with good weather to move the troops over to the border a '40 Barbarossa could begin in M/J '40? Or even J/A '40?

Italians can handle garrison duties, freeing up the Germans for breaking the neutrality pact.

There is a form for displaying the current status on breaking the pact (although it only includes units in the border area).

EDIT: You can also use the Unit Review form to show all the units on the map for each major power. That helps identify exactly which units are available.

[Orm]

Could we get an overwiev picture of mainland France?

Edit: It might be the right time to move the French Mountain Corps towards the Spanish border. Preferably staying in a mountain hex on the way.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Could we get an overwiev picture of mainland France?

Edit: It might be the right time to move the French Mountain Corps towards the Spanish border. Preferably staying in a mountain hex on the way.

Here you go:
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Edit: My big question is, do the Allies try to end the turn? If so, do they all Pass, or do they allow either France or China to make some moves? Or do they risk the 60% chance and another possible Axis impulse?

[Orm]

I think you should move with all Allied nations. If the Allies fail to end the turn then the initiative moves towards the allies (if my memory serves). That would at least be a small comfort.

Getting the MTN to Toulouse would annoy the Germans so I would gamble and try to get it there.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Frane can now swap the HQs to make Paris stronger. Sending the subs after the Germans in the North Sea would be good. I agree with running the Mtn 3 hexes SW and 1 hex W towards Toulouse. But it will need some help: the 2-3 has to move two hexes due east to block the Germans from surrounding the Mtn with ZOCs. You might also consider putting the French CLs out to the Western Med if doing so cuts off the Italian supply to the units in southern France.

I wouldn't pass since I don't think the Germans can take Paris next impulse.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Frane can now swap the HQs to make Paris stronger. Sending the subs after the Germans in the North Sea would be good. I agree with running the Mtn 3 hexes SW and 1 hex W towards Toulouse. But it will need some help: the 2-3 has to move two hexes due east to block the Germans from surrounding the Mtn with ZOCs. You might also consider putting the French CLs out to the Western Med if doing so cuts off the Italian supply to the units in southern France.

I wouldn't pass since I don't think the Germans can take Paris next impulse.

The entire French fleet, with the exception of the submarines, is disorganized. Not to mention mostly eradicated.
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Edit: I also can't send the SUB fleet out, because I'll need a Land Action to make all the moves that need to be made: the Paris swap is 2, the Toulouse retreat is 2 more, and I can now get the CAV back into supply by moving the MIL out of Nice and then stacking the CAV with it.

I can now send the main CW North Sea fleet after the Germans, though the CVP will be effective only at half their factors, plus SUBs from another port, if that seems worthwhile, but I don't think they are necessary.