Against the Wind: Cuttlefish (Japan) vs. Q-Ball (Allies)

[Fishbed]

Yes, you could actually end up hitting Darwin in the end indeed ^^

I think the whole Exmouth/Port Herdland thing not to be that far-stretched if you manage to destroy his bases.

Btw, I'd definitely transfer troops from China and Mandchukuo if you have needed political points. You need fresh soldiers with battle experience, and you need them now. This must stop here or you're gonna feel the pain... You need an overkill, troops speaking, that's what my Guadalcanal experience taught me.

A good recon effort on Koepang and a first round of BB bombardment with every big gun you have in the fleet should be a good start. You have to disrupt him as much as you can until you strike directly.

[veji1]

of course you must not lose sight of the rest of the map, but for me Timor, in the strategic scheme is worth as much as the marianas or Malaya, ie from there he can pretty quickly destroy your industrial or fuel potential...

I guess one the many priorities now is intelligence : how many troops are where? what do you know about northern and western OZ? What can you expect from him once his bases are consolidated : If you were him, how many squadrons would you have where, how would you defend this new conquest, etc...

Than the angle of reaction is capital : go for PortHedland and Exmouth ? try to get the smaller bases back asap so you can focus on Koepang ? Try to reinforce your bases in the vicinity (east timor, Bali, etc...) to prevent easy island hoping ?

Good luck and it will be interesting to watch.

[Blackhorse]

- Whether or not I try to take back the bases is moot unless I can regain control of the sea and air in the region.

That's the sine qua non. Control the air and sea and all of your other options are in play. Definitely bring additional land forces down (10k PP?!) and look for targets of opportunity -- bases in Australia? the non-Timor invasions? -- but first wrest the sea and skies from him. Good luck! Great AAR.

[ComradeP]

- An alternate strategy, risky but maybe worth thinking about, would be to invade Port Hedland and Exmouth. That would really give him fits. It may be a fantasy but if conditions are right and it worked it would completely stall his advance in the DEI for a long while. Even without invasions his supply line is still a worthy target.

That might be too risky.

Port Hedland and the other larger bases in the area are probably crawling with troops and aircraft ready to be transported to Timor. Even if you take it, you don't have the LBA advantage in that area and instead of him being stuck on your side of the pond if things go wrong, you will be stuck on his side of the pond, which is a very dangerous situation for Japan. Considering the amount of Allied shipping in the area and the possible number of Allied carriers and capital ships (all larger ones could be based somewhere in Australia) in the area, it might be easier to invade Seattle than Port Hedland so to speak.

Taking the current debate about how to keep Australian industry supplied into account, basing a rather large part of the 1942 Allied fleet in Australia will suck up a LOT of fuel that has to be brought in from somewhere. If your subs or (mini-)KB could hit a convoy or two carrying fuel between the US and Australia or Cape Town and Australia, his offensive will be slowed. Piling carriers and capital ships into a TF is nice and all, but Q-Balls logistics in Australia should be far from ideal.

You could consider pulling back to the eastern (southern on the map) bank of the Irrawaddy in Burma, as the west (north on the map) is simply a deathtrap if he's serious about attacking. There's only one road and even a unit like Viper Force can cut it, just like in theory a Chinese unit with 1 squad remaining can cut a road in China. Stalling his advance in the jungle would be fine in a regular game, but not when he just dropped an army into your backyard. Conserve forces in Burma, try to keep the Chinese out of Lashio and focus a defensive line on Prome and Mandalay. Establish a forward defense at Shwebo and the jungle hex north-west (on the map) of Prome. Try to disentangle the divisions currently engaged north of Shwebo. Also keep an eye on the coastal road south of Akyab, I believe you send only a single regiment there but I could be mistaken. In short: cut your losses and withdraw to a more suitable defensive position, taking a defensive posture.

Keep enough forces in China to make sure the Chinese won't go anywhere, stop the expansion and pick some nice defendable spots that can't easily be swarmed.

I'm not sure whether you have substantial forces on non-essential islands/atolls, but those might be better used elsewhere. You still have the transports to move them now.

You still have mini-KB and KB, hit his logistics. Use LBA to make any further expansion costly and try to expand airfields and bases in the DEI that you can realistically defend for a while, preferably inland bases that can't instantly be overrun from the sea by a huge force like what happened at Koepang.

I consider myself to be a better defensive than offensive player, and I know it can be difficult to switch for an offensive mindset to the defense, but that's what you need to do now. The Kesselring approach of fighting a very long defensive battle that you can't really win but will slow the Allied advance down to a crawl is the least you can try in the DEI, although you could still win it as your forces are in a lot better shape than the Axis in Italy 1943.

You also have a fair amount of PP's that you could use to suck Manchukuo more or less dry of quality forces, although getting them to the front will take a while. As you don't really have anything to invade, you should have plenty of transports for the task.

To Q-Ball, the Timor/DEI campaign is what the island hopping campaign, the Burma campaign and the North African campaign were in WWII: the Allies don't really have anywhere else to go, so they might as well make the best of the situation and bloody their own forces to get them up to speed with modern combat and to bleed the Axis. The Axis got sucked into a war of attrition on all three fronts that it couldn't hope to win. Be smarter than the historical Axis and don't start fighting on his terms.

Don't invade Timor unless you've a very high chance of taking it and holding it, which you may not have as you would soon need the forces you use to retake it elsewhere. Also try to concentrate LBA on large attacks against the transport TF's don't bring them in piecemeal as even the rather lacking carrier pilots he's currently using will get some planes, and more importantly: pilots.

All of this is just a bunch of suggestions, of course. Make the best out of the situation as you see fit.

[veji1]

interesting suggestions, I guess it all boils down to Cuttlefish figuring out whether he has a chance to take Timor back or not really. in the latter scenario, your suggestions are the good fall back strategy.

in the former, your suggestions for other fronts are probably correct, although ideally he would want to hang on longer in Burma, but it is clear that he will have to use the big stack of PPs he has amassed to get an efficient and sizeable force of all arms down to the DEI.

I am a believer that Timor for Japan isn't Southern Italy or North Africa, it is more akin to Holland : way too close to the heart of the industrial capacity (in this case oil). Anyway comparison is moot but if Qball manages to confirm his hold in the area and establish a network of mutually supporting bases... it will be tough.. And will all his logistical train in Australia, he can also try to widen the gap by opening on the flanks, ie consolidating in front of Java but landing in the Celebes in the next 3/4 months to threaten Borneo and aim at the South China Sea via Mindanao (again the PI would be hell for the japanese to defend... too many bases)...

Looking forward to the battle...

[Capt. Harlock]

Whatever happens, this is going to be fun.

It sure is! I think you were wise not to contest the air over Burma -- Q-Ball should have P-38's available now, and the struggle for air superiority promises to cause major losses on both sides.

[Canoerebel]

In WitP it was pretty challenging for the Allies to sustain a campaign through Timor and then into the rest of the DEI, only because the supply train was so long.  You couldn't get supplies to Darwin overland, so you had to ship it there around Perth or Townsville.  That's a long way to haul supplies (especially considering they usually started on the West Coast of the USA) and there was always the risk of a raid by the KB or Mini-KB.

I did just that in one of my PBEM games and made steady progress, but logistics was always a challenge and sometimes a major headache.

In AE, however, it is possible to transport supplies overland to Darwin.  This really reduces the headaches for Q-Ball.  All he needs are ships at Darwin, enough arifields and fighters to provide a CAP network, and enough bombers and combat ships to dissuade the Japanese from interfering too much.  As Q-Ball builds his bases up, the threat to his supply operations diminishes.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In AE, however, it is possible to transport supplies overland to Darwin. 

I only had a trickle coming through overland in an AI game. I also flew some from Alice Springs to supplement the trickle, but the vast majority I had to ship in directly. How much overland supply are you seeing get through to Darwin?

[Laxplayer]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In AE, however, it is possible to transport supplies overland to Darwin. 

I only had a trickle coming through overland in an AI game. I also flew some from Alice Springs to supplement the trickle, but the vast majority I had to ship in directly. How much overland supply are you seeing get through to Darwin?

It gets to Alice Springs VERY easily because of the rail. I've sucked in nearly 200k supplies there in less than 5 days. However, for me, it doesn't seem to EVER go north of that, regardless of how much you use the supply request settings at Tennant Creek, Katherine, Darwin, Broome, Derby, Wyndham, etc.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Laxplayer

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In AE, however, it is possible to transport supplies overland to Darwin. 

I only had a trickle coming through overland in an AI game. I also flew some from Alice Springs to supplement the trickle, but the vast majority I had to ship in directly. How much overland supply are you seeing get through to Darwin?

It gets to Alice Springs VERY easily because of the rail. I've sucked in nearly 200k supplies there in less than 5 days. However, for me, it doesn't seem to EVER go north of that, regardless of how much you use the supply request settings at Tennant Creek, Katherine, Darwin, Broome, Derby, Wyndham, etc.

Exactly! That's why I airlifted some from Alice Springs by C-47's and what-not.

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In WitP it was pretty challenging for the Allies to sustain a campaign through Timor and then into the rest of the DEI, only because the supply train was so long.  You couldn't get supplies to Darwin overland, so you had to ship it there around Perth or Townsville. 

Actually, in WITP it was pretty easy for the Allies to sustain an early campaign into Timor from Darwin because supplies would flow into Darwin along the "Great North Australian Railway" which of course never existed.

One of our design goals for AE was to make it tougher. Unfortunately the rather late added features of the supply draw function over-rode the removal of the railroad - and at least in my pre-release AE testing I was able to sustain two Corps of Australian troops between Tennant Creek and Katherine - with a supply base of about 70K (that's 70K north of Alice Springs).

Very recent tweaks to the supply draw process may have reduced this ability - and if so - that was intentional. We are trying to make it necessary for the Allies to use shipping to sustain a major campaign out of Northern Australia. Though the "Long Dusty Trail" was considerably enhanced during the war - it was never a railroad - and so for the first 18 months at least - it should be tougher to use Darwin as an offensive base. So, if we aren't there yet - we will continue to work on making that be so!

[Canoerebel]

In both my WitP games there was just a trickle of supply overland to Darwin.  Perhaps this was due to us using the Big B mod?

In my AE game, a flood of supplies has moved to Darwin overland.  I figured this was because Oz is flush with supplies.  I've moved a tremendous amount to Oz from the West Coast, India, and Capetown.

[jwilkerson]

In my WITP experience Darwin rarely had less than about 30K supply until a correct HQ got there - then it rarely had less than 50k supply - I think all this was by design. But it enabled early lunging towards Timor - by late war standards - this would certainly need supplementing but from a mid to late 42 perspective - a sustainable 50K supply base is an offensive base! Darwin would auto-replenish because of the railway. I assume Darwin had a hard code that gave it the 30K drawn and then the HQ getting an additional 25K was just a feature of WITP.

For AE, I had to manipulate the supply draw buttons to pull 10s of thousands of supply up to Alice Springs - then further manipulate to pull supply to Tennant Creek and Katherine. The Japanese had taken Darwin early - but I was able to sustain the bulk of the combat capable LCU in Australia in the Tennat Creek, Katherine area without any strain - and I was not bringing in any supply. Sydney seemed to sustain a surplus of about 200K throughout. The test game (PBEM) in question went to Sept '42.

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

In my WITP experience Darwin rarely had less than about 30K supply until a correct HQ got there - then it rarely had less than 50k supply - I think all this was by design. But it enabled early lunging towards Timor - by late war standards - this would certainly need supplementing but from a mid to late 42 perspective - a sustainable 50K supply base is an offensive base! Darwin would auto-replenish because of the railway. I assume Darwin had a hard code that gave it the 30K drawn and then the HQ getting an additional 25K was just a feature of WITP.

For AE, I had to manipulate the supply draw buttons to pull 10s of thousands of supply up to Alice Springs - then further manipulate to pull supply to Tennant Creek and Katherine. The Japanese had taken Darwin early - but I was able to sustain the bulk of the combat capable LCU in Australia in the Tennat Creek, Katherine area without any strain - and I was not bringing in any supply. Sydney seemed to sustain a surplus of about 200K throughout. The test game (PBEM) in question went to Sept '42.

From what I have seen Darwin has not really been part of the equation in this battle. No shipping in or out. I think he built up Port Hedland and has moved all the fuel and supplies he is using there via ship using the southern route.

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]When so much was uncertain, the need to recover the initiative glared forth.[/font]
- Winston Churchill: Their Finest Hour, 1949

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10/4/1942 – 10/7/1942

Kido Butai is at Balikpapan at long last but I think the invasion fleet is already beginning to withdraw. On 7 October submarine I-157 took a shot at Hermes a good 240 miles southeast of Koepang. Sadly the torpedoes missed.

The only Japanese attack during this time was a Betty raid on his main carrier force in the Sulu Sea on 6 October. I had hoped to attack his shipping at Koepang, not his carriers, but I knew it was a possibility. At any rate I lost 10 Zeros for somewhere between 14 and 20 Wildcats, but the Bettys took heavy losses. On the plus side his carriers are down about 40 planes, maybe as many as 50, since the start of the invasion.

I’m posting a map showing what my bases in the area look like right now as far as air power goes. I am moving in additional aviation support, especially to Kendari. There are a fair number of engineers there and they have built a good airfield and some forts, just no aviation support.

Here is the plan at the moment: I am concentrating about 80 Zeros at Ambon and they will begin sweeping Koepang, which he has already stuffed with fighters. KB and a couple of fast heavy cruiser task forces will slip through the Lombok Strait into the Indian Ocean and descend on the Port Hedland – Koepang sea corridor from the southwest. Meanwhile I will continue to move troops, aviation support, and planes into the area. If I achieve air superiority over Koepang the bombing of the airfield will commence immediately. None of the other bases he captured has a viable airfield as yet.

Here is the map. You can see KB there right next to Balikpapan, unspotted as far as I know. His submarines look like they are concentrated around Ambon and the approaches there.

[PresterJohn001]

Have you spent your PP's? 10,000 is a good 5 Divisions plus support. Theres plenty in Manchuria, including construction and AA. The Germans are about to capture Moscow, Russia is a falling power (just don't activate it!) . Thats a lot of troops you can strat move to the coast and then transport to where you want them!

Also you might want to mine the ports hes taken he if have some spare subs

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: PresterJohn

Have you spent your PP's? 10,000 is a good 5 Divisions plus support. Theres plenty in Manchuria, including construction and AA. The Germans are about to capture Moscow, Russia is a falling power (just don't activate it!) . Thats a lot of troops you can strat move to the coast and then transport to where you want them!

Also you might want to mine the ports hes taken he if have some spare subs

Affirmative on both counts. There is a big convoy loading at Fusan now with infantry, engineers, and an aviation HQ. And I-122 is already halfway to Koepang with a load of 42 mines.

[ComradeP]

I'm assuming the garrisons in Soerabaya and what I guess is Banyuwangi are not on the island east of them as the map currently indicates. Limitation of hexes I guess.

In any case, you don't have any troops on Bali or on the road between Flores and Banyuwangi in general. Are you thinking about reinforcing that area? Bima's even still Dutch so he could get a base up there for free without you knowing it until he has build it.

Do you have a credible defensive force on the southern shore of Celebes, at Makassar and Kendari?

[Cap Mandrake]

A useful strategy when the enemey is covering his forward bases with carriers is to carefully chop the range on your antishipping bombers down to the exact distance to the nearest bases with enemy shipping (like the ones on Flores according to your picture). In general, most players don't put the covering carriers in the same hex as the unloading transports because it limits their CAP (and makes them much easier to spot and vulnerable to surface attack).

In this way, you won't go in against his full CAP. You may encounter bleed over CAP from adjoing hexes or LRCAP but it won't be as powerful and the LRCAP fatigues his crews more. The likely targets will be transports or escort cruisers. Another technique that used to work is to take away the escort fighters and use a bomber commander not on steroids. In this case, the commander will usually not launch against a heavy CAP but will pick off rear area shipping.

Of course, this wouldnt work against shipping a Koepang as he likely has ground based CAP so you might not be able to do this from Ambon but it might work from Balikpapan and Soerabaja.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

A useful strategy when the enemey is covering his forward bases with carriers is to carefully chop the range on your antishipping bombers down to the exact distance to the nearest bases with enemy shipping (like the ones on Flores according to your picture). In general, most players don't put the covering carriers in the same hex as the unloading transports because it limits their CAP (and makes them much easier to spot and vulnerable to surface attack).

In this way, you won't go in against his full CAP. You may encounter bleed over CAP from adjoing hexes or LRCAP but it won't be as powerful and the LRCAP fatigues his crews more. The likely targets will be transports or escort cruisers. Another technique that used to work is to take away the escort fighters and use a bomber commander not on steroids. In this case, the commander will usually not launch against a heavy CAP but will pick off rear area shipping.

Of course, this wouldnt work against shipping a Koepang as he likely has ground based CAP so you might not be able to do this from Ambon but it might work from Balikpapan and Soerabaja.

Devious. Malicious. Nasty. Manipulative. I like....