Defender of the Revolution: Q-Ball v Tarhunnas

[ComradeP]

It's a long ways to Berlin

Only in the north and center is Q-Ball a long way from victory. As soon as the Dnepr freezes again, he can just walk into the heart of the Ukraine a year early with the current frontline.

[Flaviusx]

Pieter, he can hardly drive all the way to Berlin from the Dnepr bulge while leaving the rest of the Soviet Union occupied. I also think what you suggest is quite vulnerable to a German backhand blow.

I'd drive north/northwest from this position if anything, and try to get into AGC's rear. Not straight west.

[Ron]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Actually, I think the problem in this game was precisely the lack of resting on laurels. The Germans pushed too hard, too far, threw away forces unnecessarily, and didn't straighten out their front and make preparations for the winter. Tarhunnas had a brilliant summer campaign but didn't make the right transition in the late autumn.

Or it is a case of the game making the Soviets too big, too fast. Historically the Germans did push too hard without making preparations for winter, so I think that's a non-sequitur.

[wpurdom]

History
First, AGS did pull back and prepare somewhat for winter, as did AGN.
Second, Glantz makes clear that Stalin was over-optimistic and ran his army into the ground in the winter, then compounded the error in the spring by simultaneously concentrating his reserves around Moscow and launching a preemptive attack in the teeth of the planned German attack in the South. So his entire reserves were either around Moscow or lost around Kharkov.

In contrast, Tarhunnus overextended himself throughout the South and Q-ball did not over-extend himself but attacked with one of the highest percentages of victories during the blizzard that we have seen in the AAR's. In contrast, in Tarhunnus's other game, he has been way more successful than the historical Germans in his southern 1942 campaign.

His forces have not gorwn too big, too fast. They grew because of his careful husbandry and management from the day Moscow fell onwards.

[Q-Ball]

5/21/42: Clear

The German attacks resumed; no respite for the weary Wehrmacht.

North of MOSCOW, German infantry continues to push me back a hex here or there; probably to straighten the line and create some room in front of Moscow. I did manage to counterattack and throw-back 2 Infantry divisions this turn.

But most of the action is between OREL and KHARKOV.

The thrust toward OREL was counterattacked; I re-took 3 hexes from stacks of Panzers. They made only 1 hex progress. It was very bloody for me though, I lost 5,000 men per combat, plus piles of tanks.

Further south, there are two pincers working to either cut me off or force me to pull back. I pushed back 3 hexes of Panzers this turn, with blood on both sides, and lots of tanks going down. It's almost like a mini-Kursk. Which got me thinking.

I have 2 mud turns coming up to think about it, but I am thinking of STAYING in that bulge between Sumy and Kharkov. I have good trenches around, and by leaving those Panzer spearheads like that, it encourages him to keep advancing in good weather.

I plan to thin-out the units in the bulge to just single Rifle divisions, stuff I can afford to lose. (I don't have the MPs yet after the counterattacks this turn). I will move the Guards, Cav, and Tanks to be in back of the Spearheads, to counterattack again.

I want to stay and take advantage of the forts I built, but most importantly, I think it would suit me to grind it out Kursk-style in this spot. In the event of a total breakthrough, I will only lose Rifle units in the bulge, if I thin those out. But at the current trajectory, we will slug it out in front of Kharkov, which helps the Red Army big time. By channeling his attacks, I think I can make the Panzers do much more fighting than driving, which is a good thing.

Anyway, a couple turns to think about it, but I am leaning toward staying, and daring him to continue these attacks.

OOB: The Red Army should top 6 mil next turn. The Germans should top 3 mil; they are right there.

[ComradeP]

Pieter, he can hardly drive all the way to Berlin from the Dnepr bulge while leaving the rest of the Soviet Union occupied. I also think what you suggest is quite vulnerable to a German backhand blow.

I'd drive north/northwest from this position if anything, and try to get into AGC's rear. Not straight west.

Note that I wrote "into the heart of the Ukraine", I'm not suggesting directly using it as a springboard for an attack on Berlin.

Driving straight west would indeed not be the best idea. Getting into AGC's rear is going to be difficult due to the Pripyat marshes, though, so the best he could hope for is unhinging any of AGS's forward positions, which is enough to cause trouble.

The current strategic situation is, however, quite a bit better than if Q-Ball's troops would barely be holding on to Rostov and would have been kicked out of the Crimea.

The forces currently west or northwest of Kursk could, if the Axis summer offensive focusses elsewhere or lacks strength, wheel right towards Smolensk, which would immediately cause problems for AGC.

The Soviet "arrow"/bulge in the frontline pointed west actually has the potential to cause serious damage. Tarhunnas's arrow/bulge in the frontline in the Moscow area mostly lengthens his front.

All Q-Ball has to do in the north is wait until the Finnish morale folds due to being south of the no attack line, so they become 50-60 morale/experience units, which are a lot easier to deal with than 80 morale/experience units. Actually retaking Leningrad may or may not be possible, depending on how much Tarhunnas commits to defending it. Q-Ball doesn't need it to win, though.

For the Axis, holding the frontline in the sector of each army group is like a modified game of Jenga, where the Soviets randomly pull bricks out of the tower and the Axis keep shifting bricks from one tower to the other to make sure it doesn't collapse. A push towards Smolensk by the forces west or northwest of Kursk and a push into the Ukraine by the forces next to the Dnepr would make the shifting of forces process quite a puzzle for Tarhunnas.

[Q-Ball]

June 11, 1942: CLEAR

German attacks resume out of the 3 spearheads (see previous map). The Wehrmacht knocked back some of the my units and destroyed a row of trenches, then took return punishment when Guards, Tanks, and Cav came over the top and counterattacked, driving back all the armored spearheads.

I am beginning to be concerned about play balance again, I hope the Soviets aren't too strong in 1942. Or maybe Tarhunnas should have not attempted anything until he had several turns of CLEAR in a row. Either way, this offensive period has helped the Red Army more than the Wehrmacht.

Look at the losses; very heavy for the Wehrmacht, easily replaceable for me. No units are surrounded or at any real risk of being cut-off.

I anticipated where the attacks were coming and stacked piles of counterattcking units there, but still.....he should be able to make more progress. If he can't get past the 3-4 rows of trenches (and I keep digging more behind these pushes), he won't get anywhere. Panzers have to be out in the open, not slogging through forts. Unfortunately, slogging is where he is right now.

The real offensive starts, though, in a couple turns, so maybe I'll eat these words later!

[Flaviusx]

Don't let yourself fall into a mere carpet on the whole front, Q-ball.

[ComradeP]

The Axis can't afford this, which is a major issue. It might actually be good if you pull back a bit in some areas each turn, to lure him in as what you're doing right now will probably just make him call it quits after the obligatory opening attacks, as it will just be too costly.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Don't let yourself fall into a mere carpet on the whole front, Q-ball.

Why not?

I understand what you are saying Flav, I mean, a carpet of weak units isn't helpful at all, because Panzers can just roll them up no problem.

But a carpet of 3-4 CV Rifle Divisions, in lvl 2 or 3 forts have defensive CVs in the 10-12 range at least. Too much, in other words, to be easily rolled by anything. Sure, the Germans can easily roll one row of that, but not 2 or 3; not enough MPs in a turn, and at any rate, at this stage a Red Army Rifle division will retreat as much as it will rout, just stacking-up on the next hex anyway. The Germans take casualties even on wins against dug-in Rifle units.

I don't plan a pure carpet; it looks that way because I do plan to have Guards, then a row of diggers behind everyone preparing the next row of trenches. So that's 4-deep in units at the German point of attack.

I think it's "Defense in Depth" rather than "Carpet", but defense in depth is key. If the Germans get 5-hexes deep, we are on the run in open ground, and that favors the Germans. If I can slow it down and keep it in front of me, that favors the Soviets.

I hope 1942 doesnt' turn into WWI, but I fear it may. At that point, I hope we get quickly to 1943, because I bet Tarhunnas will be very good in defense, and use his Panzers aggressively against my spearheads.

[Flaviusx]

You will just encourage him to turtle up if you carpet along the whole front.

Look how well your defense in the center has worked as compared to your carpet in the south. He's attacking the "weak spot." He almost certainly will not attack anywhere if you carpet along the whole front. This in the long run just makes your job harder. There won't be any counterattacking opportunities because there won't be any attacks. He will instead sit tight and wait for you to hurl yourself against his lines, something that will take almost another year for you to be able to do.

You've already done well with a true defense in depth based on reserves rather than just blanketing the whole front with units. Not sure why you would abandon that.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

You will just encourage him to turtle up if you carpet along the whole front.

Look how well your defense in the center has worked as compared to your carpet in the south. He's attacking the "weak spot." He almost certainly will not attack anywhere if you carpet along the whole front. This in the long run just makes your job harder. There won't be any counterattacking opportunities because there won't be any attacks. He will instead sit tight and wait for you to hurl yourself against his lines, something that will take almost another year for you to be able to do.

You've already done well with a true defense in depth based on reserves rather than just blanketing the whole front with units. Not sure why you would abandon that.

6/25/42: Clear T54:

This appears to be happening; 2 attacks along the entire front, and a pull-back from a couple salients created from the German offensive. Not sure if this is permanent for the Summer or not, but I wonder it if is.

Tarhunnas made some mistakes in the winter and deserves to suffer somewhat, but the Germans should be able to make progress here. But I can see why he is stopping. My infantry looks better than his at this point, and his Panzers are in terrible shape from what I can tell.

I could thin out my defenses and allow him to get some mobility, but that seems fake, like I am "throwing" it, and kind of an insult to Tarhunnas. It shouldn't be, because I got to this exact spot vs. Von Beanie (and my winter was better by comparison), but I thought maybe I was not a good German player.

Maybe the problem is 2 even players = 1942 stalemate.

I think we'll keep going, but I hope this is looked at. It's tough, because 1942 is a snowball; once the Reds are out of their forts, it gets very mobile and very dangerous for them (see Tarhunnas's game vs. Gids), but until that happens, it's a slogging match.

I think part of the problem is that forts are everything. They are. They are the single-most important defensive factor. If you have forts, it's slow-going for the attacker. If not, it's a runaway.

I have no idea if these are the right suggestions, but maybe:

1. Forts should be nerfed further, so that anything over lvl 1 gets tougher to build. Static positions should become lvl 3, but otherwise, tougher to build.
2. EMPTY forts should disappear much faster
3. In return, unis in open terrain should defend a bit better. This might prevent games that are "too offensive" with the fort changes.
4. Units should recover Morale to National Morale very quickly; this would help Germans in 1942. And maybe units should be pulled DOWN to national morale as well. (not sure about this, it would nerf some excellent German units in 1941)

If you have a pull-down on morale, I would adjust national morales a bit for the Axis Allies, as well as give the Soviets a bit more upside

Anyway, this game figures to be WWI for a few months until I can get the Red Army together.

[Flaviusx]

I personally think the problem is that deep fortifications across the entire front are a little bit too easily achieved in 1942 and can trigger a premature stalemate.

But I confess I'm at a total loss as to how to address this without causing problems in 41 and in 43+. The testers have been grappling with this problem for months, lots of ideas have been tossed around, but none of them seem quite right. (Including my own ideas.)

[Flaviusx]

I do like the idea of expedited national morale recover for the Germans in spring of 42, btw. I've suggested it myself in fact.

The game as it stands has a built in asymmetry between the heavy blizzard morale losses and inability to rebound from this quickly enough in spring of 42. We've tweaked the blizzard to make the morale hit less severe for the Germans, but the moral recovery still doesn't seem to be happening quickly enough via normal game mechanics.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I do like the idea of expedited national morale recover for the Germans in spring of 42, btw. I've suggested it myself in fact.

The game as it stands has a built in asymmetry between the heavy blizzard morale losses and inability to rebound from this quickly enough in spring of 42. We've tweaked the blizzard to make the morale hit less severe for the Germans, but the moral recovery still doesn't seem to be happening quickly enough via normal game mechanics.

I agree, as the Wehrmacht was back to it's 'ol Wehrmacht self in 1942, singing songs all the way to Stalingrad. It was only after that battle that morale took a permanent hit. IMO morale is more than just morale, it's operational efficiency, and that did take a hit from 41-42, mostly from all the leader losses, but I don't think it was that severe. The Germans were still very very good.

Maybe the Germans could get a one-time morale bonus to all units in April 1942, (with a cap on that of course; no 99 morale divisions). 10 or 15 feels about right.

[Ketza]

I still like the idea of spending APs for forts over a certain level.

It would give the Soviets a choice in 42. Build a wall of forts or spend APs on their army. Without the ability to do both the front may well become much more fluid.

[Flaviusx]

I dislike anything that mixes forts and APs. I think this game relies too much as it is on APs to solve everything, and this just leads to a lot of accounting trickery with APs.

There's got to be a better way than that.

[M60A3TTS]

ORIGINAL: Ketza

I still like the idea of spending APs for forts over a certain level.

It would give the Soviets a choice in 42. Build a wall of forts or spend APs on their army. Without the ability to do both the front may well become much more fluid.

To some extent that happens now in the form of RR Construction Brigades. You spend APs and their high construction value allows for faster fort building. Maybe one answer is tweak the construction value of those units.

[ComradeP]

National morale is only part of the issue. With his current likely TOE figures, it wouldn't matter much at all if he had 80 morale/experience German divisions instead of ~70 morale/experience ones. The losses the Germans suffer are just as much part of the problem as reduced national morale, probably even more so.

[Ketza]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I dislike anything that mixes forts and APs. I think this game relies too much as it is on APs to solve everything, and this just leads to a lot of accounting trickery with APs.

There's got to be a better way than that.

I think the AP system has a lot of potential to make the game better.

I look at APs as a sort of national "logistics pool". You could potentially give the players a lot of flexibility by using them for various things to make the game more interesting. You can also utilize them in a system that restricts players from overdoing things that work too well. This is done with HQ buildups and it works fine in its latest variation in my opinion. To me fort construction after level 2 should fall into this category. I think its much more realistic and will make the game more interesting if both sides have to decide where the forts go and how much effort will be put into them. Your not taking them away your just making players invest something into them other then a few brigades out of the line for awhile.