Razing the Reich

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: janh

ORIGINAL: Pelton
2. The game is really normal as far as numbers go. IF I had stayed to take a beating during Blizzard I would have simply been 100-150 miles to east. Summer of 1942 would have been static other then SHC attacking about 15 times as Hoooper/Kamil and TDV have done in past to keep GHC OOB static.

3. Staying or running to Poland does not change the end date is what I predict to be true. I from exp already know the results of staying. I am not guessing I have far more exp in post 41 games then anyone playing. Its not even close.

Fighting it out for every yard during blizzard probably would have been worse. You are certainly right there. But if you had done the slow 1-2 hex withdrawals per turn of the earlier games, you would have denied Michael a lot of terrain and also manpower centers. I all the time thought this match was very "un-Peltonish", if you understand what I meant -- you kind of bend all the rules you yourself set up earlier, like the importance of manpower centers.

Don't feel attacked, I have no intention so. Sitting outside and watching both sides of the coin, it is easy to say things -- which may be totally off. I wouldn't want to have been in your shoes that moment that our big Panzerfist got stuck in the Valdai hills. It could have worked, and maybe next time it will again. Just an experiment gone wrong. I only don't think you really can draw too many conclusions from this number wise. It is too unusual, and it sure looks more like a 1944 situation with 1942 technology but still poorly experienced Russians than a typical 1942 game.

PS. I am not sure yet that Michaels way into Berlin will be an easy and quick one given your unit morale, and the possibility to disband many LW units, or Security divisions to bump your manpower pools given that you have short lines and nothing much to garrison presently. Might be a long walk into Berlin, evening with successful attrition tactics.

I am tring out something totally new as of now as far as defending goes. I am getting about a 4 to 1 ratio now. This new tactic "for me" should get a 5.5/5 to 1 ratio in 1943. So I have no idea what the ratio will jump to in 1942.

Yes I have about 300,000 men I can bleed into manpower pools and I will be starting on my next turn to flip men into the pools.

Yes morale and exp are a huge help. 60% toe units still have 12 CV. The soaking attacks are driving up morale. The handfull of wins were after 3-5 helds. So in many cases the units in question gain 2-3 pts of morale after the wins and retreat.

I am hoping with new tactics that at some point SHC armaments and manpower will start going down. I am sure SHC morale is tanking hard with 25 to 35 loses the last 4 turns.

I do not think that SHC can keep up the loses in equipment/men/armaments and morale for long. As morale drops loses increase. Mybee thats why the ratio is better then I have seen in my games vs Kamil/Hoooper and TDV. In there games the lose ratio in was 2.6/3 to 1 at best. I have never had a ratio of 4.1 to 1.

I am tring something that should get the rate to 5-6 to 1. Time will tell. In 1943 I receive plus 15 divisions or about 225,000 men, should be interesting.

[sillyflower]

Russian morale drop is not a problem as long as you can afford to rotate units to recover. Doesn't help to get guards tho' if you lose 80% of your attacks

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

Russian morale drop is not a problem as long as you can afford to rotate units to recover. Doesn't help to get guards tho' if you lose 80% of your attacks

Its been a very high lose ratio from 54-57. Now that I beleive I have a way to get ratio above 4 to 1 that will really cost allot of manpower and armament points.

I am hoping that high of a cost will make rotating units a little more then to hard to keep up a tempo like that. 7 wins to 35 loses.

Only time will tell if new tactic works or I have just been lucky the last 2 turns on rolls for losses. If it does work then my games vs Brian/Hugh and Bobo are atleast draws.

[Peltonx]

Turn 58 GHC armaments: 94,000 Turn 54 GHC OOB: 3,840,000

Russian losses this turn: 87,000 Total dead: 3,723,000
Russian gun losses this turn: 00,000 Total dead: 52,838
Russian afv losses this turn: 00,000 Total dead: 13,210

Russian OOB: 6,674,000
A net gain of: -8,000

German losses this turn: 44,000 Total dead: 1,633,000
GHC OOB: 3,706,000
A net gain of: -16,000


———–Won——–—Lost———Ratio
SHC——6—————21—–——22%
GHC—————————
———Combat losses——-
SHC—— 83,000
GHC—— 35,000

Casualties losses ratio: 2.7 to 1
Going by losses turn to turn ratio: 2 to 1

Looks like armaments will be limiting factor. I am starting the change over this turn so it will be a while before its impact is felt if any.

[Michael T]

This is very simple Pelton. I receive 120,000 plus troops per turn thanks to all the extra Manpower you gave me. I have so many units that I have the equivalent of 2 complete Fronts in reserve. So I simply attack to inflict losses on you. I don't care what happens in relation to whether I win or lose, whether you have reserve commitment of not. All I care is that I kill Axis troops at a ratio of 1:5 or better or you retreat. So far its averaging less than 1:3. Hooray! So you see even if I lost 120,000 men a turn I am happy if I killed 25,000 of the hun. But my worst turn so far was losing 78,000 for 30,000 hun. Still very happy with that.

When a front gets burned out thru morale loss because of defeats I rotate in a new fresh front to keep the grind going. Meanwhile, since there is no pressure on AP I am steadily building INF and ARM Corp. My truck pool is even increasing! If I think a victory in combat is possible I attack with the INF Corp after your troops have been bloodied by the waves of multi divisional attacks I throw at you. So my Corp units are building morale and experience for 43. In 1943 your losses will be horrendous. My replacement rate will fall to around 95,000 but my killing power and battle win to loss ratio will be much higher. You can do nothing to prevent it. You lost the game in 1941. Flavius is correct in that I am learning a great deal about playing the Soviets post blizzard 41/42.

The power that I will be able to wield in 1944 will be just unstoppable. Even if your OOB was hitting 4 million plus it won't help you. You are 3.7 million now and heading south. Your OOB has peaked at 3.8 million. The only way you can increase it again is to retreat. But this would only be a temporary respite and just take me closer to Berlin, again a happy uncle Joe.

You cannot not draw or win. It’s a futile effort. But somewhat humorous to watch it unfold. My boredom has been due to an unrealized expectation of how the game would progress beyond the summer of 41. But I have to admit that I am beginning to find a perverse pleasure in playing the role of Stalin. Pity Paris is not on the map….

I must admit though, I am now even more fearful of what Russia can do if she survives 1941/42 in any kind of competitive state. My thinking at this point is that the best form of defence is just keep attacking and hold the initiative for as long as you can. As soon as Germany goes turtle she is doomed if its before 1943.

[Disgruntled Veteran]

A thorough dressing down and berating of your enemy....NICE!

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

This is very simple Pelton. I receive 120,000 plus troops per turn thanks to all the extra Manpower you gave me. I have so many units that I have the equivalent of 2 complete Fronts in reserve. So I simply attack to inflict losses on you. I don't care what happens in relation to whether I win or lose, whether you have reserve commitment of not. All I care is that I kill Axis troops at a ratio of 1:5 or better or you retreat. So far its averaging less than 1:3. Hooray! So you see even if I lost 120,000 men a turn I am happy if I killed 25,000 of the hun. But my worst turn so far was losing 78,000 for 30,000 hun. Still very happy with that.

When a front gets burned out thru morale loss because of defeats I rotate in a new fresh front to keep the grind going. Meanwhile, since there is no pressure on AP I am steadily building INF and ARM Corp. My truck pool is even increasing! If I think a victory in combat is possible I attack with the INF Corp after your troops have been bloodied by the waves of multi divisional attacks I throw at you. So my Corp units are building morale and experience for 43. In 1943 your losses will be horrendous. My replacement rate will fall to around 95,000 but my killing power and battle win to loss ratio will be much higher. You can do nothing to prevent it. You lost the game in 1941. Flavius is correct in that I am learning a great deal about playing the Soviets post blizzard 41/42.

The power that I will be able to wield in 1944 will be just unstoppable. Even if your OOB was hitting 4 million plus it won't help you. You are 3.7 million now and heading south. Your OOB has peaked at 3.8 million. The only way you can increase it again is to retreat. But this would only be a temporary respite and just take me closer to Berlin, again a happy uncle Joe.

You cannot not draw or win. It’s a futile effort. But somewhat humorous to watch it unfold. My boredom has been due to an unrealized expectation of how the game would progress beyond the summer of 41. But I have to admit that I am beginning to find a perverse pleasure in playing the role of Stalin. Pity Paris is not on the map….

I must admit though, I am now even more fearful of what Russia can do if she survives 1941/42 in any kind of competitive state. My thinking at this point is that the best form of defence is just keep attacking and hold the initiative for as long as you can. As soon as Germany goes turtle she is doomed if its before 1943.

Sounds nice.

What I am changing over to is a counter to soaking attacks based on the combat engine itself. Not my findings, but someone esles.

Your right about the attacking as long as possible. So far as long as you can keep attacking until Spring 43 when mud hits and have about 3.4 million. You should have no issue holding out, even if SHC holds Moscow. With reserve mode and a few other tricks SHC is not going to push at all, not even on a narrow front. Very easy counter to that.

The amount of AP's lost, manpower ect ect will not let SHC recover to the point it can mount any kind of an offensive during 43. Then its just delay. I think based on what you know now even with a huge army its not easy to push, if your army was 6 to 7 million by March 43. You be very hard pressed to push very hard only recieiving 85k to 95k men per turn.

Lets see how this plays out. I am having fun. I am getting ready to play GHC in witw.

I need to learn how to best counter the allies

[Peltonx]

Turn 57 you lost 114,000 not counting atrition, if you add up each battle.

Thats why your OOB dropped the following turn. A ratio of better then 4.1 to 1. Not 5 to 1 as I beleive also I need, but close.

If you only lost 83,000 your OOB would have increased by 37,000 and not dropped 6,000. If your recieiving 120,000 per turn as you claim.

The next turn your OOB dropped again.

[Michael T]

I will be playing WITE for many years to come, unless something better come along.

[Michael T]

Those losses are not permanent. I only count permanent losses. Which you see on the screen that shows the totals, its name eludes me right now.

[Michael T]

My OOB has stalled because of the 900K ARM sink for Rifle squad upgrades. It will go up as soon as I find rifles for the 200K of men in the pool.

[Michael T]

Its the show losses screen. I will post a pic this turn, unless things go badly and the propaganda minister steps in

[Michael T]

My OOB has been steady at around 8.75 Million for the last 6 turns, where as yours has dropped from 3.8 Million to 3.7 Million.

[Michael T]

Ok this turn it cost me 98,000 troops for 30001 hun (this is assaults only, no attrition losses), permanent losses. This is close to 3.3 to 1. My worst loss rate to date. I am still very happy with that. You had a lot more reserve activations Pelton and I think it had some effect but some of the effect is also due to that I have a ARM black hole at the moment due to the so called Rifle Squad upgrade. So many of my units are no longer 100% TOE. This will improve in time. I would not care if I lost 150,000 troops to get 30,000 Axis so you have a way to go yet to stop the rot. If you can manage 6:1 then that would cause a problem for me. But it won't happen. I have more an more Corp sized units coming on line and they are the real killers.

Turn delayed as heatwave + teething baby = very unhappy baby = less game time. Turn out tonight.

[Peltonx]

I beleive the perma loses are on 50% of your loses.

You lost more like 200,000 + 40,000 to atrition or 250,000ish.

I beleive then men in manpower pool are from the 50% that were not perma lost.

I have 120,000 men in my pool and 100,000 arm pts. The men in pool are from combat not because of a lack of arm pts.

I think the black hole is being caused by massive loses in men and equipment. You will be up-grading to 42 squads until 1944 at the rate your going.

Anyone have the for sure on this?

I think a single squad is 10 arm
guns 10-30 per
afv's 20 per
planes 20 per

If you add up the men lost in each battle it seems allot higher then the perma lost and is

[sjohnson]

Ok, I think I have this figured out now in tracking losses. All that really matters is checking the changes in pools each turn and comparing. So, for example:

Turn 1
Axis kia = 50,000
Axis pow = 10,000
Axis disabled = 500,000

Soviet kia = 200,000
Soviet pow = 100,000
Soviet disabled = 700,000

Total losses report as 560,000 Axis to 1,000,000 Soviet.

Now, let's say you get to Turn 2 and the pools look like this:

Axis kia = 60,000 (+10K)
Axis pow = 11,000 (+1K)
Axis disabled = 510,000 (+10K)
Total = 581,000

Soviet kia = 215,000 (+15K)
Soviet pow = 102,000 (+2K)
Soviet disabled = 740,000 (+40K)
Total = 1,057,000

If you just look at total loss it looks like Axis lost 21,000 to Soviet 57,000 (or 2.714 : 1 ratio).

If you just look at permanent loss of KIA & POW then it looks like 11,000 Axis to 17,000 Soviet or 1.545 : 1.

But, what really happened - as best I can tell from testing and questions in various threads, the following:
1) Axis really lost 10,000 killed and 1,000 POW. They actually also lost 15,000 disabled who will return at the rate of 1% per turn. Why 15,000 - because 1% of the 500,000 would have returned to the active manpower pool and if no additional losses had occurred, the new disabled pool would be 495,000.

2) Soviet really lost 15,000 killed, 2,000 POW and 47,000 disabled (40,000 positive change plus 7,000 who were removed from the disabled pool). The Soviet disabled pool reduced by 1% per turn; but, as confirmed by Helpless in the tech support forum, only 1/2 of these go back to active; the rest are lost but not updated in the kia or pow totals (I suppose died of wounds or long term invalid).

3) Thus, one way to slice it is that really the Soviet loss is 15,000 killed, 2,000 POW and 3,500 disabled who were permanently removed from play. Or a ratio of 20,500 Soviet perm loss to 11,000 Axis perm loss.

4) Another way to view it is that 1/2 of all Soviets who go to the disabled pool are actually permanent losses in the long term. Thus, the real Soviet loss due to action in the turn was 15,000 kia, 2,000 pow, and 1/2 of the new 47,000 disabled or 23,500. Total of 40,500 vs 11,000 Axis perm losses.

Of course, disabled return all depends on how much time is left in the game. One can work an algorithm for that if desired to see the permanent effect on the various manpower available from current game time to end game. It is tedious.

Anyways, I think this is correct - I could be corrected by one of the higher game coding powers though.

While it seems complicated, I think it is important to really understand what is happening in losses to really understand if the combat results and loss ratios are indicative of historical or not.

[Peltonx]

Ok finally that looks right.

Because I look at the battles add them up and I am getting 4 or 5 to 1 or better ratio.

I look at perma dead and its 2.7-3.3 to 1 per turn.

I am guessing MT is lossing ALLOT more men then he thinks he is.

[Peltonx]

You are the man by the way sj


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD-E-LDc384

[Peltonx]

As MT reported his losses have increased.

I am 1/2 set up in the to be named later defence.

If and when the person that came up with it comes forward.

Kinda waiting to see if it really works.

So basicly its the Pelton Defence if it fails and the master minds if it works heheheh

I will post next turns data and we can all figure it out.

By the way anyone esle thats got some crazy idea I am willing to give it a shot if it looks good on paper.

[Michael T]

Before the black hole I had 600K of ARM saved. And it was increasing by around 80K a turn with assaults running at around half what I am doing now. I am not worried about ARM. My OOB is holding and will increase once the ARM's get back in the black. You can see it how you want Pelton. I am and will continue to grind your Army in to the dust. Time will tell who is right. EOS.