Road to Where: Axis

[gwgardner]

After the initial attack. Both Germans and Italians too heavy air losses in ground attacks, with little result, especially for the Italians. No cause for worry, however. Once the Dniester is breached, the Russian front will start to break apart.

[gwgardner]

Ok, they say no plan survives contact with the enemy, or some such.

The German High Command has been completely taken by surprise at the size of the Russian army. Not just the vast number of infantry, but the multiple armored corps - more than are available to the entire German army already.

Surveying the north and south fronts, it has become obvious that some rethinking is necessary.

In the north, the advance on Vilnius is already stalled by the Russian armor. Reconnaissance deep into Latvia shows one weakness, southeast of Rezekne. It may be a trap, but lead German armor advanced and took Rezekne without a fight, at the risk of overextending the German lines. If the Russian infantry nearby can temporarily cut the lead armor off, it won't be for long. The Wermacht needs that supply souorce.

The decision was made to transfer two armor corps from Army Group South immediately, in order to make the initial breakthrough in the North. IF that can be done, and the northern Russian forces can be entrapped, the push in the South can be resumed. Till then, it's an Italian show in the south.

High Command has finally realized that the complete absence of Allied and Commintern air forces must be because those forces were scrapped in exchange for the PPs.

Situation in the North:

[gwgardner]

In the South, the Italian AG Caucasus has made two bridgeheads across the Dniester.

Another major flaw in the Axis planning - failure to get Hungary to join the war, thus making it easier for the Russians to hold sosuth of the Pripets.

Note the incredibly heavy losses taken by the Italian Air Force.

[James Ward]

This is an excellent AAR. I looks like it will be a tough fight for the Axis.

[gwgardner]

Yeah, a lot tougher than I expected. I'm thinking perhaps I have poured too many PPs into research, as opposed to actual units. My opponent obviously has a better grasp on getting the max number force mix.

[gwgardner]

Situation in the north, early July. The USSR was able to close the holes the Germans punched in their line. However, they failed to cut off the armored division holding Rezekne, freeing it for further operations once infantry could catch up and take over defense of that city.

Two more breakthroughs have been made, at continuing high cost to the air force, necessitating some costly reinforcements.

Same situation on the southern front (I forgot to take a snap of that).

Three major problems that the German High Command has identified (so far):

1) Zero, and I do mean ZERO, strategic reserve. If the Western Allies launch any kind of attack, there is nothing to oppose it. The Axis has garrisoned all the ports in its possession, but there is no force of maneuver available. That will necessitate pulling troops from the Eastern Front. Meaning the end of any Eastern offensive.

2) While the strategy of the Axis has been to focus on high quality forces, through research, that has resulted in lower numbers of forces. The Eastern front is already thin. The enemy seems to have taken the opposite approach, at least as far as maximizing the boots on the ground.

3) The number of Soviet armor units, if they can refuse encirclement, may make deep penetration of Russia impossible.

There is a faction within the German Italian heirarchies favoring a diplomatic solution to the war. Anger and dismay is building, aimed at the madness at the highest levels of the German command, that brought this conflict with the USSR about.

[gwgardner]

Situation before, on 2nd week of July:

The enemy has pulled back all along the front.

[gwgardner]

Severl breakthroughs by the augmented Army Group North:

The arrow shows the fighting retreat of a heroic division of Russian infantry, which was eventually destroyed, but foiled an attempt to encircle that part of the front.

[gwgardner]

Two more unexploitable breakthroughs in the south.

The Italian High Command wasted 110 PPs on amphibious assault transports, thinking that it would be possible to use them in the Black Sea. Unfortunately, the Italian High Command forgot to the read the rules of the game, which disallow such a movement without control of the Dardaneles.

Now, in a further fit of idiocy, the Italian High Command is going to waste said otherwise useless transports on an assault against Alexandria.

[gwgardner]

July 24th turn. Some significant breakthroughs and encirclements by Army Group North.

With large Soviet armor forces in the South, that front is fairly stagnant for now. However, High Command expects the enemy to start transferring those armored units to the North, thereby hopefully opening the way for some breakthroughs in the south.

On the left is the northernmost extension of the northern front. To the right are Army Group North's breakthroughs and Army Group Center advancing.

It appears that Estonia is about to join the Allies/Comintern. That will perhaps provide an embarrassment for Army Group North, as the line across Latvia is VERY sparse.

[gwgardner]

Leading up to the first week of August, the Italian High Command hired a highly-skilled graphics artist to illustrate the situation on the southern front. Should clarify the disaster there - as in Italians too weak to advance, German Army Group South too weak to advance, Romanian's too weak to hold. Russians advancing:

[gwgardner]

The German High Command does not have a highly skilled graphics artist, but General Guderian sent back his free-hand drawing of the Russian armor's escape from the Minsk pocket. They successfully smashed through the weak point in the encirclement, crushing the lone German mechanized division in their way, and pulled back towards Minsk. Major, major opportunity lost by the Germans. Major victory for the USSR.

Howsomeever, the Northern Russian Front is in danger of being rolled up, if the Germans can sustain the offensive. Minsk is the key now, as the Germans are at the limit of supply lines out of Vilnius.

[gwgardner]

Southern front is stagnant. Far northern front is fairly static. Situation around Minsk. The German offensive hinges in Minsk. Without taking it soon, the entire offensive must come to a grinding stop.

It appears that the Russians have finally started pulling heavy armor out of the south - probably enroute to the north even as we write.

[gwgardner]

The enemy pulled out of Minsk unnecessarily, but the Germans are happy to occupy it. As it is now Fall, it is time to start considering how to weather the winter. It may be necessary to go over to the defensive soon, until the next campaigning season.

All of the enemy armor has disappeared from the Southern front, so they should soon appear in the North.

Not much remains of the grand strategy for the conquest of Russia. Unrest grows in the High Command.

[gwgardner]

Mid September, it's getting chilly. A sign of things to come?

In the north, the advance towards Smolensk resumes. The Germans are scrounging for every threadbare regiment to stuff into the ever-lengthening front lines.

Advance armor units have taken advantage of the gaping hole in the Russian line, to drive to the southern approaches to Smolensk, at the risk of being cut off from their supplies. IF the Russians have some fast moving units lurking southeast of the Dnieper, they have a great opportunity to cut that German spearhead off. German High Command felt that the risk was outweighed by the opportunity to cross the Dnieper south of Smolensk, and advance upon the city from the south and southeast.

In the meantime, in the south, the lead element of the the Italian army group, an entire armored corps, has been lost to a furious Russian counterattack.

[gwgardner]

October is here. The Fall started off badly, with partisan activity rising. The Germans had to spend 100 PPs to keep from taking a huge effectiveness hit. As it was, effectiveness was down by 10% due to those raids.

Another unwelcome transition: the Russians feel strong enough at three different points along the front, to launch small offensives. A German infantry division was lost to just such an attack east of the Dniester. The same in northwestern Ukraine, on the former Polish border, and an ominous buildup of enemy forces is occuring just north of the Pripets, the the German line is held by just a few widely dispersed divisions.

So ... some hard decisions had to be made.

1) A general fallback was ordered in the southern front, to the Dniester.

2) One last attempt was ordered to breakthrough towards Smolensk, before winter hits. Whether or not that succeeds, Army Group North will have to go over onto the defensive until late Spring, '42. Tentative reconaissance showed that Bryansk and Gomel are defended, so a last-minute dash towards those objectives will be forestalled before winter hits, since supply lines from Minsk are too long. No Smolensk, no possibility of further advance.

3) The German air force is sadly depleted, and there are no PPs to reinforce them with. So they can no longer be used on the offensive, without risk of taking so many hits that they are destroyed. Every available PP is now going into level 2 infantry, to shore up the winter front lines, and to begin establishing a reserve in the West. The British cannot be expected to sit on their ... heels ... for long.

[gwgardner]

Don't do this at home:

Having been informed that partisan activity was rising, the German High Command decided to ignore it, in order to expend PPs elsewhere. Big Mistake.

Take a look at the line, after the 40% effectiveness hit:

[gwgardner]

Winter has hit on the step ... I was going to say, the steppes, but actually none of the German or Italian forces made it to the steppes. So, pretty much, winter has hit along the old Polish border. 50% effectiveness loss. A strategic withdrawal has been ordered along the entire front, against the direct command of the carpet-eater back in Berlin. The discontent in the upper echelons of the German and Italian commands has grown into disquiet. Stay tuned on that.

The Italian military is no less disobedient than the German, descretely refusing to follow orders to send reinforcements to the East, when the homeland has been left bare. All further Italian production will be expended to safeguard Italian territories, rather than to further German ambitions.

The German war machine is pumping out infantry divisions and forwarding them to the front as fast as possible. In the meantime, elements of armor and mechanized infantry have been transferred to France, as a small but hopefully potent mobile reserve.

As long as Gibraltar is held, the Axis is unsure what kind of force the British can muster in Egypt, for an amphibious assault in the Med. The Italian navy has roamed at will there. So the Allied assault, will probably come against Spanish or French beaches.

[gwgardner]

Situation Feb 16th, 41, in the east.

[Pretty pitiful, huh?]

[gwgardner]

The Soviets finally violated Estonia's borders, seeking to roll down the German northern flank. Other concentrations of Russian armor have so far been ineffective in achieving a breakthrough. If they concentrated all their armor at one spot, however, the result would be devastating.

The current German effort is centered upon building up defenses in the West, and upgrading the Eastern front infantry to level 3 and 4. Germany has insufficient armor to attempt any further advance at the same time as preparing for an Allied assault in the West.

[players note: although I may have made lots of mistakes, I believe that the German experience in this PBEM shows that there is a serious imbalance in base PPs between the Allies, Axis, and Comnintern.]

Circled are the concentrations of Russian armor.