Pearl Harbor Alerted

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HMAS Sydney
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by HMAS Sydney »

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

ORIGINAL: HMAS Sydney

It was better for the US to have their ships sunk at Pearl rather than the open ocean.  Many of the ships at Pearl were only saved because they didn't have far to sink.  In the open ocean they would have gone to the bottom and been lost. 

Two ships, Arizona and Oklahoma, were permanently lost despite being sunk "in harbor". Since I have doubts that KB could have sunk substantially more ships if the fleet was out at sea and maneuvering and fighting back, ultimately it might not have made any difference. Besides which, as i related earlier, I can't really conceive of a major fleet like Kimmel's simply sitting in harbor awaiting an attack.

And how many of the other ones that were salvaged would have been if they had been on the open ocean?
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Nikademus
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by Nikademus »

my point on the damage, as i expressed in post 23 on this thread, was that I'm not sure the KB would have "sank" more than two battleships at sea in a best case result. This is assuming they managed to find and attack the battlefleet once it sortied.
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Anthropoid
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by Anthropoid »

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
The...Japanese...."DUDE?" Oh, my...

What? [&:] . . .

It was a dude, not a chick right? [:D]

*Yes I know he had an actual name, bio, and all that, but I can't be bothered to remember every little detail of this stuff! Its a hobby for me not my profession! [:'(]*
The x-ray is her siren song. My ship cannot resist her long. Nearer to my deadly goal. Until the black hole. Gains control...
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John Lansford
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by John Lansford »

Assuming full watertight conditions, I doubt California would have sunk; she had had inspection plates removed between the triple bottom hulls and gradual flooding took place.  That's one ship that would have survived.

West Virginia was screwed no matter what happened.  She took more torpedoes than could be accurately counted, so many that some hit in areas already destroyed by earlier hits.
 
Oklahoma would have probably sunk no matter what as well; she took IIRC 4 torpedo hits in quick succession and all the DC parties would have done would be to counterflood to keep her from capsizing, not sink.
 
Nevada's an interesting case; from the accounts and inspection of the damage it appears the near-misses are what caused her progressive flooding forward that required grounding.  Had she been at sea would she have sunk?
 
Assuming that Arizona does not get hit by a lucky bomb while maneuvering at sea, that leaves us with WV, Oklahoma and possibly Nevada that are lost at sea if they took the same damage that they took in harbor.  Three BB's permanently sunk and who knows how many damaged, some severely, and then everything would depend on whether the KB launches more strikes against them.  Remember, if they're at sea then there's no need to attack the numerous airbases on Oahu, so more Vals and Kates available to go after the ships.
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Anthropoid
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by Anthropoid »

ORIGINAL: John Lansford

Assuming full watertight conditions, I doubt California would have sunk; she had had inspection plates removed between the triple bottom hulls and gradual flooding took place.  That's one ship that would have survived.

West Virginia was screwed no matter what happened.  She took more torpedoes than could be accurately counted, so many that some hit in areas already destroyed by earlier hits.

Oklahoma would have probably sunk no matter what as well; she took IIRC 4 torpedo hits in quick succession and all the DC parties would have done would be to counterflood to keep her from capsizing, not sink.

Nevada's an interesting case; from the accounts and inspection of the damage it appears the near-misses are what caused her progressive flooding forward that required grounding.  Had she been at sea would she have sunk?

Assuming that Arizona does not get hit by a lucky bomb while maneuvering at sea, that leaves us with WV, Oklahoma and possibly Nevada that are lost at sea if they took the same damage that they took in harbor.  Three BB's permanently sunk and who knows how many damaged, some severely, and then everything would depend on whether the KB launches more strikes against them.  Remember, if they're at sea then there's no need to attack the numerous airbases on Oahu, so more Vals and Kates available to go after the ships.

Assuming of course that KB (a) found them at sea and (b) hit them the same number of times and in the same spots at sea as at port.

The point that several of us are making is that: if you speculate about "what if US had been alerted" there is no sound basis to assume either (a) or (b). KB intended to attack Pearl Harbor, and their plan hinged on the fleet being at peace time anchor and indeed at a relaxed Sunday morning posture, right?
The x-ray is her siren song. My ship cannot resist her long. Nearer to my deadly goal. Until the black hole. Gains control...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkIIlkyZ ... playnext=3
mdiehl
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by mdiehl »

The Japanese would have been screwed if PH had been alerted, with the degree of screwing contingent on the amount of alert time.
 
Scenario 1: Diamond Head radar contact report is taken seriously.
Consequences: About the same in re ships damaged or sunk at berths. Severe losses among Japanese strike a.c. Moderate losses among Japanese fighter a.c. Moderate losses among American fighter a.c.
Long term consequences: enhanced survival of RN's Eastern Fleet.
 
Scenario 2: 24 Hours prep as "East Wind Rain" message is taken as an imminent threat to US.
Consequences: US BB fleet is not found. Moderate losses among Japanese strike a.c. Moderate severe losses among Japanese and American fighter a.c. America trades Enterprise for two IJN fleet CVs.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
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witpqs
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by witpqs »

Two things. First, <groan> The History Channel did a show with some <groan> experts who wargamed the sortie. Was the referee Larry Bond or one of his guys? Dunno. Their conclusion was: worse than the actual event. Stay in port or get crushed even worse. IIRC they went with a couple hours notice, not 12 hours or something.

Second thing is what about all those highly trained and motivated IJN subs whose very purpose in existing was the destruction of US battleships? Would they have found and tracked the battlefleet? Would they have made successful attacks? Picked off damaged ships? Hit some in the confusion of air attacks? Vectored in all the remaining subs? The world wonders.
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by John Lansford »

If PacFleet had just a few hours' warning, then the planes would have been up and waiting, all AA guns manned, and the ships would have been at battle stations but probably still in harbor; no one wanted to risk having a ship sunk in the narrow shipping channel.

That is probably the best scenario for the fleet other than just running south as fast as they could go.&nbsp; Nevada and California probably aren't sunk, Oklahoma and WV perhaps only badly damaged.&nbsp; Arizona was a lucky hit so she may or may not have been lost, and a massive dogfight takes place over Oahu with the Zeros getting the best of the US fighters but not without a lot of disruption to the bombers.
&nbsp;
More than a few hours' warning, though, and Pearl Harbor is nearly empty on December 7 with no major ships in sight.&nbsp; The IJN subs might have spotted them but given KB's position what could they do about it?
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witpqs
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by witpqs »

The subs might be in position to attack!

Also, we are presuming that the warning would have included the direction of the attack, but what if it didn't? Might the USN have been compelled to consider the possibility that the attack might be coming from the direction of kwajalain? "Running south!" is not a given.

Also, some previous posts mentioned the fuel state of the KB and the fleet moving to Lahaina Roads as it was too far. Is that presuming too much knowledge being conveyed with any potential advanced warning? If you knew (only) that your fleet was due to be attacked by air <edited to add missing word 'air'>, thinking only of the two ports (at sea is a different question) do you want the defenses of Pearl Harbor or Lahaina Roads?
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JWE
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by JWE »

All these 'what ifs' are fascinating. But the US Navy was supposed to be professional, yeah?, and given Scapa Flow and Taranto, 'what if' they just rigged out anti-torpedo nets? (like they frikkin should have done dammit!)
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witpqs
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by witpqs »

I suspect the best action (this is with all hindsight) would have been staying in PH fully alert and ready. Torpedo nets? Yeah! Why the heck didn't they already do that anyway? Serious question, BTW, I've never heard why.
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by anarchyintheuk »

Their thinking went something like . . . no subs can access the harbor like Scapa Flow, harbor is too shallow for airborne torpedoes unlike Taranto, what me worry? They were wrong.

I can't remember where I read it but I seem to remember a story about the efforts made to jury rig torpedo nets after the attack was made.
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Nikademus
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by Nikademus »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I suspect the best action (this is with all hindsight) would have been staying in PH fully alert and ready. Torpedo nets? Yeah! Why the heck didn't they already do that anyway? Serious question, BTW, I've never heard why.

biggest problem i have with this scenario is that it's largely hindsight based. We know the level of damage that KB could and did do to the fleet, but at the time such negative thoughts would not IMO be in Kimmel's mind (specifically....."OMG.....we are going to get pummeled, numerous ships will be sunk, its best to sit in harbor THAT way we can later in the war salvage most of the sunken ships")

Just wasn't the mindset at the time vis-vis: airpower. Combined with that would be the traditional response to an alert of attack on a major base.......in almost all cases the ships will raise steam and bug out. They won't sit there and present themselves as immobile targets. Torpedo nets didn't have a reliable history and the Navy would not simply "trust" that the Army airforce would protect them in full. Sortie would be the only option, just as Nevada's captain's first instinct was to do. Better to fight at sea where one can maneuver to avoid damage and fight back. If Herwin is right and KB could be sent a message in time, most likely no attack would result. Nagumo would be too worried about not knowing where the US carriers were.
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by anarchyintheuk »

Nik, Iasked this earlier . . . . do you know if Nevada left on its own initiative or per pre-existing orders (i.e. in case of air attack bugger off asap)?
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by John Lansford »

Torpedo nets were not used in Pearl Harbor because they would have restricted the already cramped area for ships to move around in.&nbsp; The shallow depth of the harbor also argued against needing torpedo nets.
&nbsp;
If the direction of the attack wasn't known (but they had verifiable info that an attack WAS going to take place the next morning), I think their response would be to sortie and head east.&nbsp; Lahaina Roads is an anchorage but had little if any facilities; it's really just a sheltered location for the ships to avoid storms.&nbsp; If the KB had somehow reached them there any ships sunk would have been as lost as if they had been sunk at sea.
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by John 3rd »

ORIGINAL: Anthropoid

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
The...Japanese...."DUDE?" Oh, my...

What? [&:] . . .

It was a dude, not a chick right? [:D]

*Yes I know he had an actual name, bio, and all that, but I can't be bothered to remember every little detail of this stuff! Its a hobby for me not my profession! [:'(]*

I thoroughly understand, however, it is my profession! [:D]
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Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.
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Nikademus
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by Nikademus »

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Nik, Iasked this earlier . . . . do you know if Nevada left on its own initiative or per pre-existing orders (i.e. in case of air attack bugger off asap)?

While i don't have a direct quote i believe it was standard operating procedures. I note from one dusty tomb i own that after the attack other ships also got under way and fled to sea in order to not present themselves as sitting duck targets as well as to "look for the enemy fleet" (This included CL's St Louis, Phoenix, and Detroit, and destroyers Monaghan, Tucker, Bagley, Dale, Henley and Phelps.)

Like i said, it just wouldn't make sense for a fleet, before or after a threat of air attack, to sit in harbor. Thinking of Taranto.....same thing. Operational warships after that raid fled the harbor to safer waters. Most if not all navies considered a ship at it's most vulnerable when at anchor in a harbor. (again demonstrated by US CV policy for the months immediately following the PH attack. CV TF's were to only enter PH at any one moment and only long enough to fuel and re-provision and then....back out to sea.

You don't build a big expensive navy and then leave it for another navy to use as target practice. I don't care how strong the defenses are in theory. Nor do i think the USN naval command would think that way. A warship fights best when at sea, with room to maneuver and fight and fully manned at battlesations. Only a defeated, disabled or morale poor navy hides in port in the face of attack. (This of course does not include sitting in port to AVOID attack as was seen in large part during WWI)
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by Anthropoid »

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Nik, Iasked this earlier . . . . do you know if Nevada left on its own initiative or per pre-existing orders (i.e. in case of air attack bugger off asap)?

I seem to recall it was a junior officer with just a skeleton crew who took the initiative. But given I couldn't even remember the name of the Japanese Admiral in charge of Kido Butai, I wouldn't trust that memory too closely ;)
The x-ray is her siren song. My ship cannot resist her long. Nearer to my deadly goal. Until the black hole. Gains control...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkIIlkyZ ... playnext=3
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by Terminus »

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Nik, Iasked this earlier . . . . do you know if Nevada left on its own initiative or per pre-existing orders (i.e. in case of air attack bugger off asap)?

While i don't have a direct quote i believe it was standard operating procedures. I note from one dusty tomb i own that after the attack other ships also got under way and fled to sea in order to not present themselves as sitting duck targets as well as to "look for the enemy fleet" (This included CL's St Louis, Phoenix, and Detroit, and destroyers Monaghan, Tucker, Bagley, Dale, Henley and Phelps.)

Like i said, it just wouldn't make sense for a fleet, before or after a threat of air attack, to sit in harbor. Thinking of Taranto.....same thing. Operational warships after that raid fled the harbor to safer waters. Most if not all navies considered a ship at it's most vulnerable when at anchor in a harbor. (again demonstrated by US CV policy for the months immediately following the PH attack. CV TF's were to only enter PH at any one moment and only long enough to fuel and re-provision and then....back out to sea.

You don't build a big expensive navy and then leave it for another navy to use as target practice. I don't care how strong the defenses are in theory. Nor do i think the USN naval command would think that way. A warship fights best when at sea, with room to maneuver and fight and fully manned at battlesations. Only a defeated, disabled or morale poor navy hides in port in the face of attack. (This of course does not include sitting in port to AVOID attack as was seen in large part during WWI)

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Nikademus
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RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

Post by Nikademus »

i wish. I hear Angelina is single again. [:D]
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