Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet)

[Twigster]

Kiev.

Finally getting to the city, 1PG makes an attempt (an admitted long-shot) to be in a position to cut off some units in the Marshes. The idea behind this attack is to isolate Kiev from reinforcement as much as possible and to push some armor east of the Dnepr and to threaten the Soviet right (north) flank.

[Twigster]

The far south of the line. I realized early on that with the Turn 1 of this game, and the Soviet forward defense, I had no chance of effectively damaging the industrial areas before factories could be moved.

[Twigster]

The Finnish front.

[SparkleyTits]

The north is nice man good job there he got too confident in keeping your push under control and now has a lot of his forces dislodged there and without Shissleburg being prepared to fortify he could well of blown his chances at holding Leningrad now if you seize the opportunity, Good job!!

I think your decision to cut his forces into two in AGS to stop reinforcements of the Dnepr was a good call under the circumstances as the swamps aren't the easiest things to perform an orderly retreat to a secure new line on the Dnepr while being dislodged. Although it might not translate as well as you had hoped into Doctorkings next turn depending on what he does as with his industry being so safe he can likely sacrifice rail capacity to defend any hot spots as needed and you unfortunately falling short of 2 hexes to making him walk over 2 major rivers to retreat

Nice AAR though and a very enjoyable read, keep up the good work both of you!

[thedoctorking]

Got two divisions and three sapper regiments in the Shissleburg hex with a level 2 fort. I'm pretty confident.

I notice that sapper regiments only have a construction value of 2, though. Odd.

[Twigster]

One thing is for sure- you don't have to worry about losing 2.1 million by the end of Q3! [:'(]

[Stelteck]

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

Got two divisions and three sapper regiments in the Shissleburg hex with a level 2 fort. I'm pretty confident.

I notice that sapper regiments only have a construction value of 2, though. Odd.

It is probably because it is untrained sapper regiment. They have far better value once 45 morale 45 XP.

[Twigster]

Some thoughts:

I've had the time to evaluate the overall situation; generally things are looking fairly good.

In the north, once Leningrad falls there are not sufficient enemy forces in AGN area to prevent the Axis from getting to the planned winter stop line- and then some. Recent operates demonstrate that the Luftwaffe now has near-total command of the skies over the AGN area. It is extremely unlikely that the Reds can shift enough to the north to change that calculus without seriously weakening other imperiled sectors.

AGC: here as well, the OPFOR has been sufficiently weakened that, even though Axis advance has been slowed (admittedly to the point that it is not expected to reach pre-planned stop line) nearly all major objectives should be reached before the mud hits.The acceptable trade-off is that Soviet forces that have slowed the advance are seriously beaten-up and now that the major hardpoints have been cleared rate of advance will increase- MPs of the mobile units being more the limiting factor than anything else. Here, enemy airpower is far more in evidence and is making its presence felt to be sure.

AGS: walking through deep mud- very slow and exhausting but worth the effort upon reaching the other side. Many, many Soviet units peacefully watched large stretches of the line in the south when they could have been more productively employed elsewhere. The heaviest fighting has been in this area by far, but 1PG will soon reduce the Kiev strongpoint and there is no doubt that what will follow will be satisfactory. As in AGC's area, attainment of original objectives is in some question so OKH is more flexible here than elsewhere.

Very pleased with the overall performance of the LW, which has been greatly stressed. I am confident going forward, not looking forward to the winter but I know what must be done. There are still some logistical issues to deal with. In short, it has so far been a great learning experience and good fun.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Would either of you be able to post the numbers from the OOB screen? Just eyeballing the screenshots my feeling is that the Germans need to start making some pockets and fast to get the Soviet OOB down, otherwise things could get really ugly in winter with full blizzard and soviet +1.

[Twigster]

If thedoctorking does not post it I will when I get the turn back.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Nice one mate . How are you using your HQBUs? Just looking at your screenshot in Post 41 showing the situation with AGS - you've got your rail-line fairly close, all of your infantry caught up, 150 admin points, your opponent deployed a long way W. of the Dnepr and what looks like 2 Pz Corps ready to go. With a HQBU you could have been round the back of him, potentially have a big pocket and at least have dislocated his defense in the South.

[Twigster]

Hi. Keep in mind that I have really only just broken through to a point where that is possible, and my focus really has been on Kiev.

I have used HQBUs in AGC to good effect so I definitely understand where you are coming from. I was a bit thrown by the magnitude of the forward defense in the AGS area.

[Twigster]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Would either of you be able to post the numbers from the OOB screen? Just eyeballing the screenshots my feeling is that the Germans need to start making some pockets and fast to get the Soviet OOB down, otherwise things could get really ugly in winter with full blizzard and soviet +1.

I hear you on that. I frankly was until recently unsure how I was going to handle the south after I botched the opening attack with AGS. I have begun giving some serious thought on how I am going to deal with the Blizzard too.

[thedoctorking]

Here's the OOB screen. I'm taking a break of a couple of days for the Thanksgiving holiday. Been cooking most of the day.

[thedoctorking]

This is frustrating! How the heck do I delete a post?

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: Twigster

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Would either of you be able to post the numbers from the OOB screen? Just eyeballing the screenshots my feeling is that the Germans need to start making some pockets and fast to get the Soviet OOB down, otherwise things could get really ugly in winter with full blizzard and soviet +1.

I hear you on that. I frankly was until recently unsure how I was going to handle the south after I botched the opening attack with AGS. I have begun giving some serious thought on how I am going to deal with the Blizzard too.

ewwwwwwww, +1 & Full blizzard can be painful in the right hands

[Twigster]

I have been interested in getting an objective read on the difference in outcome between an aggressively forward-defending Soviet and a Soviet strategy of trading space for time. We now have posted losses from the same time period (end of Soviet Turn 8) so I crunched some numbers and will share what surprises me, what does not and invite others (nearly all of whom will have had far more experience playing the game)to let me know if I am reading things incorrectly. This is not at all intended to be a competitive comparison- I know I need to up my game in terms of skill level.

*Axis permanent manpower losses are 64,575 greater in Twigster's game compared to tyronec's, gun losses are 1,301 greater and and AFV losses are 567 greater. Soviet manpower loses are 91,817 greater, gun losses 1,410 greater, but Soviet AFV losses are 74 greater in Grognard's game

This makes sense to me as a result of the forces engaging in more combat in this game. That said, I hasten to note that the Soviet has conducted fewer than 10 hasty and/or deliberate attacks thus far in Twig's War. Soviet reserve activations have been memorable for me though I can't speak to activation percentages for the Soviets. Tyronec's pocketing has been far more extensive.

*In the air, Twigster's Luftwaffe has lost 35 more planes overall; 12 more fighters and 43 planes more lost in air-to-air combat but lost 10 fewer operational losses than tyronec's Luftwaffe. thedoctorking's Red Air Force has lost 1,221 fewer planes overall but 160 more fighters and 545 more lost in air-to-air combat than Grognards', and and has lost 171 more operational losses.

Twigster and tyronec's air losses are very close though they faced two very different Soviet air strategies. The difference in thedoctorking's and Grognard's overall losses are attributable as per tyronec, i.e. he destroyed more on his Turn 1 attacks. It seems clear that Twigster's LW has conducted more interceptions (as was, I believe, thedoctorking's goal) the question being how much more Fatigued Twigster's LW is over tyronec's.

A big take-away for me is that, judging by these numbers, the respective OOBs should not be numerically too terribly different; being aware of course that Twigster's relative losses are a bit higher than the numbers alone indicate. Even so, to date numerically the Soviet "forward defense" as opposed to "trading space for time" has resulted in a drop in manpower, for example, in the German (not general Axis) OOB of less than 2% (1.85%). I guess time will tell how significant that is.

[thedoctorking]

German turn 8 saw a continuation of the trends detected in the previous turn, without any dramatic offensives. I can only imagine that the Axis are stocking up on AP’s for a big attack in a future turn. For now, the push towards Leningrad featuring mainly the armored and motorized divisions of that Panzer Group continued. They gained a couple more hexes to the east of the line of hills, almost completely cutting off Leningrad over land. His infantry advanced but did not attack along the Novgorod-Leningrad line. In Northwest Front’s area of operations, very little took place, permitting me to shift an army south to hold the region to the east of Velikie Luki, freeing Reserve and Western Front troops from that sector to move south and garrison the land bridge area.

[thedoctorking]

The Central Front was once again suspiciously quiet. I suspect some fuel shortages have been slowing him down in that area. Nonetheless, he seems to be setting up for another attack. There is a mass of armor around Smolensk that hasn’t moved far for two turns now. A few armored divisions are located to the north, remaining there after the successful offensive on turn 6. An armored corps has redeployed somewhat to the south, more or less east of Mogliev. I suspect that a two-pronged armored offensive to the southeast from Smolensk is in the cards, though a possible alternative approach would be a move up the land bridge directly towards Moscow in keeping with the direct approach that the German high command has favored to this point.

I have three air armies in the vicinity, Reserve, Long Range, and Moscow. I wonder about the efficiency of this setup – perhaps I should merge the two tactical air forces. Moscow Air Army is supposed to be protecting the city against German strategic bombing, but so far I haven’t seen any of that. Of course, his bases are just now getting into fighter range of my cities so perhaps the blitz is coming soon.

Interestingly, there were no German air raids on my air bases this turn. Nevertheless, almost all of the Western Front Air Command’s planes had to be withdrawn to national reserve because of low morale, requiring air transfers of new planes from rearward bases.

[thedoctorking]

To the south, a two pronged enemy assault developed on the forces to each side of Kiev. I continued my slow retreat, launching a counterattack that I hoped would result in the destruction (or at least rout) of an SS division. Instead, the first SS brigade retreated on top of the other one, making their combined defense too strong for me to overwhelm. So instead they just got surrounded and cut off from resupply for this turn, hopefully further slowing the German advance in the sector. The Romanians, like their Finnish friends to the north, remained quiescent. Perhaps both countries are interested in negotiated settlements? We would be happy to re-cede the territory they lost in 1939-40 (which they have already captured) in return for their leaving the war. If they join us, we will not only guarantee their national independence and territorial integrity (under, of course, governments friendly to the USSR) but will also supply some of our valuable military equipment (the I-153 fighter and T-26 tank are highly spoken of, you know)...