Allied Strategy- One or Two Pronged?????

[kaleun]

Had Japan won at Midway, and (unlikely) seized the Hawian islands, there is no question in my mind that the US would have had to: a: force them out ASAP ot b: achieved some kind of negotiated settlement, which is what Japan wanted.
The US government wanted a policy of "Germany first" but if you study the time period inmediately preceding, and just after the start of the war, US public opinion, and the opinion of Congress was not that. early in the war, after Roosevelt and Churchill's meeting in the White House, on December 1941, the English delegation was impressed by how unprepared the US was, and also by the US public opinion that massively wanted to do "Japan first". This was only natural, it was the japanese that attacked Pearl Harbor, not the Germans. I do not believe that the US Congress and public would have allowed a policy of sitting out the Japanese, if Midway, and a possibel invasion of Hawaii had been successful.
And that is my 2 cents worth.

[mdiehl]

I think that "2c" worth is not based on any accurate data. The US public was pretty heavily anti-Axis in general by Dec 1941, and convincing the public that Germany was the greater threat would not have been too challenging (since they already believed that to be the case, even after Pearl Harbor). By December 1941 most Americans favored a war with Germany just to help save the UK.

Fortunately Japan was not capable of invading the HI with or without Kido Butai, Midway, or US CV-based opposition. Not in Dec 1941 and even less so by May-June 1942.

I love this quote: "The American Army doesn't solve its problems. It overwhelms them."

That's one of my favorites too. I first saw it in "An Army at Dawn." Any idea when the sequel is supposed to come out?

[barbarrossa]

ORIGINAL: kaleun

Had Japan won at Midway, and (unlikely) seized the Hawian islands, there is no question in my mind that the US would have had to: a: force them out ASAP ot b: achieved some kind of negotiated settlement, which is what Japan wanted.
The US government wanted a policy of "Germany first" but if you study the time period inmediately preceding, and just after the start of the war, US public opinion, and the opinion of Congress was not that. early in the war, after Roosevelt and Churchill's meeting in the White House, on December 1941, the English delegation was impressed by how unprepared the US was, and also by the US public opinion that massively wanted to do "Japan first". This was only natural, it was the japanese that attacked Pearl Harbor, not the Germans. I do not believe that the US Congress and public would have allowed a policy of sitting out the Japanese, if Midway, and a possibel invasion of Hawaii had been successful.
And that is my 2 cents worth.

I don't think it was ever in the Japanese plan to occupy Hawaii. Midway was to have anchored, along with the Aleutian adventure, the first line of defense of thier sphere of influence.

"Germany First" was definitely what Britain wanted to get the US to agree to.

And it is precisely my point that politically the US needed to take some action in the Pacific because of popular US opinion.

[barbarrossa]

Welcome back Mdiehl!

Join the fray![:D]

[Mr.Frag]

Fortunately Japan was not capable of invading the HI with or without Kido Butai, Midway, or US CV-based opposition. Not in Dec 1941 and even less so by May-June 1942.

They could not have invaded period. The resources were already committed elsewhere. Really the only point in time they could have attempted it *was* Dec 7th. It would have taken most of the forces committed to Malaya/Burma and PI. I do not think at this point in time they had the fuel reserves to actually manage to pull it off even committing everything to the operation. This would mean they *maybe* grab Hawaii but have *nothing* else. Rather pointless. The goal to attacking PI was the removable of the USN that would interfere with Japan's *other* plans, not conquest. I seriously doubt anyone in Japan was *that* stupid.

[kaleun]

Actually, I don't think the Japanese plan included taking Pearl. (In the game, it might)
Then again, it did not include Midway until after the Doolitle's raid on Tokyo.
However, if Midway had been a decisive Japanese victory, would it have been totally irrational for Japan to take or threaten Pearl? Actually threatening might be better than taking it. It would have forced US to take Japan seriously. Part of their strategy, actually all of their strategy, was to present the US with the daunting task of having to recover the lost ground from far away, and at a great cost.
Faced with trying to get at Japan without Hawaii, a negotiated settlement thet perhaps returned Hawaii, Midway and the PI, but allowed Japan to keep the SRA and a free hand on China might just have worked.
I know Mdiehl will now have a long post on why this wouldn't work, but that's OK, I actually like his arguments, they are always well researched. (Since I'm at work I don't have references handy, nor are they as extensive as his, I'm sure)[:)]

[Becket]

The Midway plan developed out of the initial idea to invade Hawaii. I think it was Yamamoto who scaled the op back (I'll have to check tonight).

Definitely a crazy idea, but the funny thing about crazy ideas is that it's very hard to evaluate them as purely "what ifs", especially in WWII. In France, 1940, had Gamelin made different choices (not implementing the Dyle plan, putting different forces around the Ardennes), we might even now refer to the German plan to invade France as a "crazy idea" (esp. since the Germans themselves gave it less than a 10% chance of success).

[tsimmonds]

The Midway plan developed out of the initial idea to invade Hawaii. I think it was Yamamoto who scaled the op back (I'll have to check tonight).

Midway was Yammamoto's plan from the first page. He insisted on it, threatening to resign if Nagano and Toyoda didn't let him have his way. He wanted to lure the US fleet into decisive battle. Well, that much of it worked....

[Becket]

ORIGINAL: irrelevant

The Midway plan developed out of the initial idea to invade Hawaii. I think it was Yamamoto who scaled the op back (I'll have to check tonight).

Midway was Yammamoto's plan from the first page. He insisted on it, threatening to resign if Nagano and Toyoda didn't let him have his way. He wanted to lure the US fleet into decisive battle. Well, that much of it worked....

He did indeed threaten to resign. However, the initial concept of the plan that became Midway was design on Hawaii. It's covered by Fuchida & Okamiya in "Midway: The Battle That Doomed Japan (the Japanese Navy's Story)". I'll find the citation tonight.

[barbarrossa]

ORIGINAL: kaleun

Actually, I don't think the Japanese plan included taking Pearl. (In the game, it might)
Then again, it did not include Midway until after the Doolitle's raid on Tokyo.
However, if Midway had been a decisive Japanese victory, would it have been totally irrational for Japan to take or threaten Pearl? Actually threatening might be better than taking it. It would have forced US to take Japan seriously. Part of their strategy, actually all of their strategy, was to present the US with the daunting task of having to recover the lost ground from far away, and at a great cost.
Faced with trying to get at Japan without Hawaii, a negotiated settlement thet perhaps returned Hawaii, Midway and the PI, but allowed Japan to keep the SRA and a free hand on China might just have worked.
I know Mdiehl will now have a long post on why this wouldn't work, but that's OK, I actually like his arguments, they are always well researched. (Since I'm at work I don't have references handy, nor are they as extensive as his, I'm sure)[:)]

I agree with you that the Midway operation might have been undertaken with the "loss of face" created by Doolittle. I've read that in a few places.

The Japanese underestimated the resolve of the US after Pearl Harbor. They thought the US to be lazy and decadent with unwillingness to fight a long drawn out conflict. America's isolationism after the Great War had influence with this coupled with negotiated naval treaties the Japanese fudged on. They figured they could grab what they needed without too much interference from a Pacific Fleet in shambles and an American public with no stomach for war.

[kaleun]

That is correct.
I believe that the Japanese thought that the secret "Shangri-La" base was Midway, and that precipitated their lunge towards it.
But essentially yes, they totally misunderstood the US character and resolve.

[barbarrossa]

ORIGINAL: kaleun

That is correct.
I believe that the Japanese thought that the secret "Shangri-La" base was Midway, and that precipitated their lunge towards it.
But essentially yes, they totally misunderstood the US character and resolve.

I don't think they believed the US had twin-engined bombers with that kind of range man[;)]

Plus they'd already spotted the Doolittle TF which precipitated the early launch of the raid.

[kaleun]

You are right, they had spotted the carriers, however the picket ships were sunk before the B25s took off, so I'm not that sure they put two and two together.
I agree they did not think the B25s had the range, but also they did not think they could take off from a carrier,
Now, I haven't read Fushida's Midway for a while, so I may be rusty in my memory.

[j campbell]

I would say that the Japanese IJA militarists misjudged American resolve and war capabilities but not the IJN (who would bear the greatest burden of the conflict). Yammamoto himself (who obviously held alot of clout within the Genreal staff) knew full well the US capabilities and thought Japan (due to her inferior material strength and resources) could only hold the Americans at bay for up to a year. They were unable to wear down the Americans because the Japanese were losing all the battles-technology being the most important one.

The US had to protect Australia -barring an immenent threat to them or Hawaii the US could afford to pursue a german first strategy. Mike is completely correct in his asessment of the military-political situation at the time -arguments to the contrary are groundless.

even with hindsight-if japan had been its most productive, efficient and militarily capable both tactically and operarationally (ala fought like germans on the land combats-not Banzai charging), pursued agressive ASW and submarine warfare- they STILL would have LOST. it was only a matter of time-Mac Arthur and King certainly sped up the timetable but not due to the threat of Japan grabbing some "high ground" in the Pacific where the US would repeatedly pound itself against like some WWI trenchline-that was just the "wishful" thinking of those that led japan to war and would not know when to quit.

[tsimmonds]

Combined Fleet began planning for Midway in March. At the same time IJN Plans division was working on several different plans: invasions of Ceylon, northern Australia, and New Caledonia, Fiji, and Samoa. The army vetoed the first two but agreed to the southern Pacific operation. When the Plans division went to the Navy General Staff to present their case, they found the Combined Fleet staff there with their own plan for Midway. It was only Yamamoto's threatened walkout that carried the day in favor of the Combined Fleet's plan; the Plan Division's plan was far superior....

[sven6345789]

1) wlcome back mdiehl, i was starting to miss you !![:D]

2)peace in 1943, after pearl? never. Germany first was the strategy. Some staff even believed the war in the pacific to last up until 1947 or 1948. didn't matter. Midway was necessary because , oh well.. it IS a little close to pearl, now isn't it. after midway, there was a chance for a counterattack (Lunga). no midway, no Guadalcanal. At least not in 1942.
in game terms, this means you will have to fight for the area close to pearl, the connection between hawaii and australia, Australia, India and China. Everything else depends on how well you can hold this line and on how much the japanese is willing to risk.

[Mike Scholl]

When I said GARBAGE, I meant that in the terms of the overall strategic planning and
outlook of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, OFFENSIVE action was not a priority in the Pacific
Theatre. When the War broke out, certainly DEFENSIVE measures in the Pacific were
a priority (The Brits and Commonwealth at least had that covered in Europe and the
Atlantic, and would find some assets for India). Yes, most troops and equipment the
US shipped overseas in the first 18 months of the war went to the Pacific..., because
the Pacific was lacking such coverage. The object was to "hold the ring" and protect
"vital" areas like the route to Australia/New Zeeland, the Canal, Pearl, the Alaskan
Coast, etc. The Chiefs of Staff saw no need to start "re-taking" things from the Japs
any time soon. King and MacArthur "suckered" them into unnecessary "offensives"
for their own purposes.

The basis for the Japanese planning for the entire Midway Operation was to seek a
"decisive naval confrontation with the Pacific Fleet. Siezing a couple of worthless islands
in the Aleutians, and even Midway itself, were just "secondary" actions to the overall
concept. And from the Joint Chiefs position, none was a "vital" loss. What got Nimitz
his OK to fight at Midway was an "intelligence breakthrough" that promised a chance
to "trap and ambush" Nagumo. A "calculated risk" where the odds seemed pretty
favorable, and the opportunity to "break off" was open-ended if the "intelligence" didn't
pan out as forcast. It was a "defensive" operation.

Nobody at the higher levels of Allied command was particularly worried about the Japs
building and airstrip at Guadalcanal. They were building a number all over the Pacific.
What got Ernie King excited was that the Japanese position there looked vulnerable.
He had enough assets available in the theatre to do something about it, and it looked
to be a fairly quick and clean "victory" for the Marines and the Navy. And it was..., in
48 hours, the Marines held everything worth holding. What King (and Company) left
out was the ability to deal with Japanese reactions. Savo Island made it plain that hie
beloved Navy still had a lot to learn about Night Fighting, and his logistics were on a
"Shoestring" level. He had "sucked" the US into an offensive campaign it really wasn't
quite ready to engage in. MacArthur did much the same in Papua New Guinea. Began
unnecessary "offensive" action and then screamed for resources to back it up when he
got bogged down. None of this activity was NECESSARY or called for in the overall
strategic outlook of the Joint Chiefs. The threat of the Japanese to take Port Moresby
had already been dealt with (it WAS something the Joint Chiefs felt was vital), and
Guadalcanal was just another "stepping-stone" in the Japanese plans to "threaten" the
Australian pipeline (for which Samoa, Fiji, and New Caledonia were the "can't lose"
objectives).

Doolittle was a publicity stunt. Something Roosevelt could point to to show Americans
that their war production efforts were worthwhile. It was in no way "strategy", although
it did have some unlooked-for strategic results.

[madflava13]

Just to toss my two cents into the mix--
I primarily play as the Allies. My initial plans are going to be:
1. Save as much airpower as I can from PI
1A. Save ALL tenders from PI and as many other ships as possible
2. Save the Aussie divisions from Malaya
3. Reinforce the string of islands from Johnston - Canton - Baker - Suva, primarily with CD units, PBYs and some fighters. Also Marine Def Bn, if available.
4. Reinforce Midway with at least a regiment of troops, engineers and CD units. Fighters and PBYs
5. If possible, FT CD and Def Bn units to Wake.
6. Begin sending huge TFs of supply to Australia and points south in order to begin the build-up.
7. Reinforce Darwin
Thoughts?

[Mr.Frag]

5. If possible, FT CD and Def Bn units to Wake.

Unless you luck out, Wake falls on Day 1.

[madflava13]

Damn, scratch that then...

When testers reported they had reinforced Wake, was that with non-historical starts?