8/22/45
Hiroshima/Matsuyama: The air war is the key to winning the game (eventually). Erik is a tough customer and his fighter corps and flak are bears to deal with. Tomorrow the Allies are trying for combination punches against Matsuyama and Hiroshima using LBA fighters and bombers (vs. Matsuyama) and carrier fighters (vs. Hiroshima). While the strike vs. industry is important, the results of the sweep against Hiroshima will be the most telling thing about the potential for Allied ops against major Home Island bases.
I'm still 70k away from 2x victory points. Those points are likely to come from:
1. Bases: Singapore, Shanghai and Chungking have the most potential but some bases in China and Korea, Formosa, plus the DEI will help. Of these, Chungking is the most significant because it reduces the denominator significantly.
2. Ships: Erik has a massive amount of shipping. He's losing his safe havens in the DEI. The Marianas are still relatively safe for him. The Home Islands, beneath stout CAP, offer the final refuges. If and when the Allies crack the code on effective bombing, then this offers major points potential.
3. Army: Erik has carefully tended to his armies - withdrawing when threatened (and I often lend an assist as I don't yet wish to fight on terrain and terms that favor the defenders). He's running out of room here, too. His army in China is now basically cut off, though he can retreat into the mountains to insulate them from being destroyed. But he'll likely lose considerable points in China, Korea and Formosa.
4. Industry: The air war is a tough war but the Allies have to figure it out in order to harvest strategic bombing points at a somewhat efficient level. There are reasons for optimism but not yet for confidence.
5. Air War: This is basically a 1:1 affair and thus is a net hindrance from a points standpoint but a necessity as it's the only thing standing between the Allies and achieving numbers 1 to 4.

"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.