Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: brian brian
is Alexander on board yet?

Alexander is still on the sidelines.

ORIGINAL: Courtenay
Lastly, you will have do something about Yugoslavia before you invade Russia, because it is inevitable that the Allies will get four units into some country (either Italy or Albania) adjacent to Yugoslavia at some point.

And it will likely overlap with the German invasion of the Soviet Union. With a significant portion of the Soviet army, including their HQ's, and Red Airforce tied up in Asia I'm hurrying to the east to invade regardless of the weather.

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Also placing the new FTR2 in East Prussia would get a garrison point without an air mission; moving the short-leg portions of the Luftwaffe east is as slow as putting all the Panzers on train cars.

Yes I should have do that and Rommel's HQ-A too. However, I didn't decide to go all out to break the pact until after unit placement.

[brian brian]

Placing Rommel in Vienna was perfectly fine; he will reach a good operational area via land impulses. Air missions are more precious, particularly if you want to fight in the Bay of Biscay & move the majority of the Wehrmacht east at the same time and try and help out in the Med a little.

I have learned some of this about efficiency in moving out of France the hard way in my current face-to-face game, where the Axis might be heading towards a loss due to a late start on Barbarossa, though that was caused by a Sep/Oct 40 turn of nothing but Storm impulses as much as getting slack on the details of moving east, as well as the Panzer Groups repeatedly rolling 2-4 every time they attacked the French in front of Paris. That Axis could still Sitzkrieg their way through the middle years to an eventual victory, but breaking any Allied major power is now out of the question and it is only the start of N/D 41.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #3.

[al] Allied Impulse 1
No DoWs, etc.

Actions
China - Land
Commonwealth - Naval
Free France - Pass
United States - Pass
Soviet Union - Land

[al] Naval Stuff
Port Attacks
None

Naval Air
(1) CW Albacore in 0 box Bay of Biscay returns to Derry in Northern Ireland.

Naval Movement
(1) Queens sail from Cape Town, loaded with 1st South African Corps (5-3 INF), to 1 box North Atlantic.
(2) TRS sails from Gibraltar to 1 box Faeroes Gap.
(3) TRS sails from Plymouth to Bordeaux, picks up HQ Gort, then sails into Liverpool.
(4) East Coast: HMS Berwick and Cumberland sail from Halifax to 1 and 4 boxes, and HMAS Canberra sails from Gibraltar to 0 box.
(5) North Atlantic: HMS Southampton drops from 3 box to 1 box, HMS Sussex sails from Liverpool to 4 box, and HMS Hermes, Valiant, and Terror sail from Liverpool to 1 box.
(6) Cape Verde Basin: HMS Erebus and Dutch cruiser Java sail from Gibraltar to 1 box, Polish destroyer flotilla sails from Freetown to 4 box.
(7) Gulf of Guinea: HMS Effingham sails from Mombasa, Kenya, to 0 box.
(8) Azanian Sea: HMS Rodney sails from Mombasa to 3 box.
(9) Cape St Vincent: HMS Norfolk drops from 3 box to 1 box, HMS Resolution and Liverpool sail from Gibraltar to 1 box and 4 box respectively, and Dutch cruiser Sumatra sails from Liverpool to 1 box.
(10) Faeroes Gap: HMS Ramilles and Exeter sail from Liverpool to 1 box, 7 cp sail from Liverpool to 0 box, and HMS London sails from Liverpool to 4 box.
(11) 13 cp in Bay of Biscay, HMS Glasgow, and HMS Suffolk all return to Liverpool

[al] Naval Combat
CW can initiate in North Sea, but won't, since the only enemy units are subs.

[al] Any CAP for strategic bombing or ground strikes?

[ax] Negative.

[al] Just as well. The Allies don't have any strat bombing or ground strikes.

[ax] As Gollum would say, "tricky hobbits."

[al] Land Stuff
Rail Movement
(1) Soviets rail 85 mm guns (3-2 art) from Kharkov to Tsitsihar.
(2) Soviets rail 17th Army (2-1 GARR) from Chita to Tsitsihar.

Land Movement
(1) Despite calling a land impulse, upon review, the Nationalist Chinese have no land moves.
(2) Neither do the Communist Chinese.
(3) Mongolian CAV moves from Ulan-Bator to Ulan-Ude.
(4) HQ Yeremenko advances down the rail line between Chita and Tsitsihar.
(5) Land moves around the periphery of the Manchurian front.
(6) The Red Army continues closing in on Harbin, enveloping the city.

[al] Land Combats
No land combats

[al] Rebases
(1) RAF rebases Spitfires from London to Coventry.
(2) Soviet planes base into slightly better positions in Manchuria.

[al] Reorganisation
(1) HQ Gort reorgs 4 cp in Liverpool.
(2) TRS at sea in Faeroes Gap reorgs 2 cp in Liverpool.

[al] Sending the game file shortly. End the naval reorg phase to proceed to the Axis impulse.

The Western Front.

{Well looks like my opponent has decided to abandoned both France and the Bay of Biscay. With no supply to the disorganized CW V inf corps, he stands zero chance of surviving. After the formality of taking Bordeaux I can now concentrate on relocating the German army and Luftwaffe to the East for their attack on the Soviet Union.}

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #4 PI. CW Convoy Lines and Production.

I'd say there are more navals, or at a combine, in CW's future in order to get their new convoy lines up and running if they want to max out their production.

To say the least I'm happy about being out to clear out the Brits from France without a fight. Also, it's nice to have the Bay of Biscay conceded to me.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #4.

[ax] Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #4.
No DOW's. No Special Actions.
Germany aligns Bulgaria.
USE=10, apparently the isolationist US couldn't care less. No chit added.

[al] Hrm.

[ax] Actions. Germany - land, Italy - land, Japan - land.

Bulgarian Alignment. Nazi-Soviet Pact.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #4. (continued)

[ax] Port Attacks. None.

[ax] Any CAP for strategic bombing or ground strikes?

[al] No thanks.

[ax] Naval Air.
Germany. He 115c NAV2 from Brest to 3-box of Bay of Biscay.

[ax] Strategic Bombing. None.

[ax] Ground Strike. Japan x 2.
(1) D3A2 Val (3 Tac) vs Zhukov HQ-A, 3rd Siberians & 1st Cav Div
(2) Ki-27 F/B (1 Tac) vs Mao.

[ax] The Soviets have two fighter units, I-153 (4 a2a) and I-16 (17)(4 a2a) in position to intercept the ground strike on Zhukov.
The Japanese have three fighter units in position to counter-intercept. Ki-27 (5 a2a) and 2 A6M2 Zeros (5 a2a).
Soviet Intercept Instructions?

[al] Please send the slowest one up.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] USSR intercepts with her I-153. Japan counter-intercepts with her Ki-27.

[ax] Ground Strike (1). Air-to-Air.
I-153=10, Japanese Val bomber unit cleared.
Ki-27=9, no effect.
The Japanese fighter unit at +1 advantage in air-to-air sticks around.
At an air-to-air of -1 assume you don't with to continue the dog fight?

[al] With the bomber cleared, no sense sticking around. Soviets abort back to the hex from whence they came.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Ground Strike (1). D3A2 Val (3 Tac).
vs. 1st Cav Div=2, flipped.
vs. Zhukov HQ-A=1, flipped.
vs. 3rd Siberians=5, missed.

[al] Good job by the Japanese. Annoying, but good.

[ax] Thanks.

[ax] Ground Strike (2). Ki-27 F/B (1 Tac).
vs Mao HQ-I=4, missed.

[ax] Return to base.
(1) D3A2 Val returns to Mukden, Manchuria. Ki-27 fighter to Changchun.
(2) Ki-27 F/B returns to Tungkwan, China.

Ground Strike. Japan.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #4. (continued)

[ax] Rail. Japan.
(1) Umezu HQ-I. China 77, 142 to Manchuria 62, 152 (2 hexes directly west of Changchun)
(2) 5-2 Nagoya MIL. Wuhan China to Manchuria 62, 152.

[ax] Rail. Italy. CCNN inf from Trieste, Italy to Brest, France.

[ax] Rail. Germany x 3.
(1) von Bock HQ-I. Brussels, Belgium to East Prussia 46, 47.
(2) LXXI inf corps (6-4 white print). Saarbrucken, Germany to East Prussia 46, 47.
(3) XXXVII Inf (6-3). Karlsruhe, Germany to Warsaw.

[ax] Land Moves. Highlights.
(1) Japan pushes forward a bit in Manchuria to make contact with the advancing Soviet forces.
(2) Japan also pushes forward in Northern China to close the gap with the communist Chinese.
(3) In the South, Japan holds on her positions there.
(4) Germany moves to clear out the British from Bordeaux.
(5) Germany starts the movement (i.e., transfer) of ground troops out of France and to the East.
(6) Italy moves away from the Franco (Vichy)-Italian border.
(7) Japan disemarks 2-5 mech div from China Sea to Port Arthur.

Japan. Manchuria.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #4. (continued)

Japan. China.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #4. (continued)

[ax] Land Combat. Germany. 16:1 vs OOS & disorganized CW V Inf in Bordeaux. The result is a forgone conclusion. A POW camp for those boys for the rest of the war.

[ax] Air Rebase. Germany x 3.
(1) Ju 88A1. Lille to Poland 52, 48.
(2) Bf 109 E-3 FTR2. Vienna to 53, 28.
(3) He 111H. Brussels to Germany 46, 47.

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy. Ca.135. France 61, 25 to Trieste, Italy.

The Western Front.

{Note. I'm moving Vichy units such that their ZOC's into occupied France will prevent partisans from appearing there.}

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #4. (continued)

[ax] HQ Reorg. None.
That ends my impulse at this point.

[ax] 07-SEP-OCT-1940-AX-04-EOI.zip game turn sent.

The Eastern Front.

{I've gotten the Nazi-Soviet garrison ratio needed to break the pact down to 2. With some many units disorganized I won't be breaking the pact this turn. Barring blizzard or storms I will next turn. I need to rail more HQ's and get more land units in place this turn. Once I can break the pact, I will also need to get German and Italian units in place to go after Yugoslavia.}

{I wonder how my opponent will react to the fact that Germany is so close to being able to break the pact?}

{Opinion Question. If I get the necessary ratio to break the pact this turn, should I even though it'll be next turn at the earliest before Germany will invaded the Soviet Union?}

[brian brian]

lotta moving parts to your situation now. you are the C-i-C, you decide.

If you break the Pact but don't declare war, USSR can declare war the next impulse instead and Rumania and Finland remain neutral. but Allies take a large US Entry hit. that can be good, depending on what chits you have already seen. but how long to get Ploesti back and how much oil reserves does Ge have?

to invade USSR from Rumania with high quality German units, you would have to DOW Yugoslavia first. but with Red Army at low density in Ukraine, doesn't matter much where Germans start, though weather rolls very important right now. Allies won't be able to threaten alignment of Yugoslavia for many turns yet. anything blocking Yugo movement temporarily probably not counting towards Pact garrison total.

you need the Panzers in the east as priority. 2 garrison points for one rail move. walking to Russia from France not same as walking from Poland to Rhineland in fall 39. Rain, Storm, and Blizzard about to shut down walking units.

Stukas and HQ-A important on Russian front; all still far away.

if you DOW USSR, their REServes appear, but flipped. if you attack late in turn, lines will be more solid on next turn.

USSR probably has decent reinforcements to place next turn but counting garrison points with those depends on who moves first.

each side draws new Pact chits at end of turn...always a 5 in the MWiF pool even if you already have one elsewhere.

Bottom Line: Pact ratios can change fast in 1940. But 1940 almost over.



I would have sent Royal Navy in to re-supply and defend those poor chaps in Bordeaux and force more German moves into SW France, particularly as I think MECH was already flipped in front of Bordeaux and combat power weak for attack on Bordeaux; weather may have turned and both units come out later. Major scandal in British press though Labor party keeps stiff upper lip about it around Winston.

edit: forgot you play with Railway Movement Bonus, MECH @ Bordeaux not flipped. I find that rule too generous to all sides; moving an army corps forward not same thing as driving down the interstate. Anyway I would have at least sent enough RN in to cover a supply effort in face of Luftwaffe and offer Def. Shore Bombardment support. That is how you help the Russians - by fighting Germans.

[Courtenay]

I agree with Brian -- you decide.

However, I also agree that the fact you can break the pact this turn does not mean you can break it next turn. Pact values can change fast.

Also, I would not worry about the Russians declaring war on Germany; I would want them to. The US entry difference is wonderful, and you get Rumania into the war anyway when you declare war on Yugoslavia.

[brian brian]

I forgot that Rumania could still be added to Axis team via DOW on Yugo....I more often contemplate this kind of situation with Rumania under threat from a Russian invasion ('nother USE chit lost to Allies) aiming to get in and stay in long enough to blow up all the oil wells. Not a concern here.

Then the US Entry trade-off for GE is - how many chits is the Finnish front worth?

But Axis adding Yugoslavia to the menu right now not simple campaign either.

Sometimes the key balance tipping pebbles on Pact value calculations are long-range bombers suddenly shifting in. The Germans already moved some of theirs in; the Russian ones are all in Asia, 2 turns away via Pilot withdrawal; some closer via long-range 3x or 6x rebasing.

Breaking the Pact w/o DOW, should USSR not take up their option to do so, costs the Germans 2 RES left coming in now, but not 2 BP going out - but also 2 Oil not coming in. Oil stocks and tempo of operations come in to play there. Moving Panzers or MOT by rail cost 1/5th oil each, HQ-A 3/5 iirc.

Chances to break Pact and +/- to do so will change, and so will the weather. So we play the game one impulse at a time.

Germany can use a Naval impulse in the winter of 40/41 to re-assemble the Kriegsmarine to either gain support ashore in the Baltic or point a stick at the British in the Atlantic via moving it to France, and also start setting up the short-lived Vichy empire in terms of bringing home the African bacon to Vichy France (convoy points, needed to build Vichy TERR) - might need to use the Vichy TRS to re-org some CP, CW style, if possible, and return all those ships in Africa to supplied ports in the Med, and possibly move some troops to the Med. colonies. Syria is currently worth an Oil point/turn to the Axis; the CW won't ignore that for long. So many tasks, so few impulses.

[rkr1958]

@Brian, Countenary. Thanks! I find your comments, advice and insights invaluable! Both of you are promoted to honorary Field Marshall. Now where have I put my honorary Field Marshall batons? [:D]

ORIGINAL: brian brian
if you DOW USSR, their REServes appear, but flipped.

Follow-up question. With the USSR at war with Japan haven't their reserves already been called out? They don't get any additional do they from a German DOW?

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #5.

[al] Okay... let's see what the weather is.

[al] Weather roll is 1.

[al] Fine everywhere. (Still.)

[al] Allied Impulse 5
No DoWs, alignments, etc.

Actions
China - Land
Commonwealth - Land
Free France - Pass
United States - Pass
Soviet Union - Pass

[al] Naval Stuff
Port Attacks
(1) Swordfish from HMS Glorious bomb German ships in Kiel. Surprise rolls are CW 1, Ge 2. No surprise points either way. Damage profile is 1D 1A.
- CW picks D on Schlesien; saving throw is 1: she's damaged.
- A has no viable target.

[al] Any CAP for strat bombing or ground strikes?

[ax] Negative.

[al] Land Stuff
Rail Moves
(1) Ulster territorials (Irish TERR) rails from Dover to Edinburgh.
(2) Kuybyshev MIL rails from Kuybyshev to Tsitsihar.

Land Moves: China
(1) No Communist moves.
(2) KMT forces at the northern and southern edges move west.

Land Moves - Commonwealth
(1) Montreal MIL moves into Quebec City.
(2) Cape Town MIL advances to the hex adjacent to Mogadishu.
(3) Sydney MIL advances towards Berbera.
(4) Indian INF in British Somaliland hooks around frontier of French Somaliland in Ethopia.
(5) British forces along the coast in Egypt move back towards Nile valley, seizing Bardia and Tobruk as they do so.
(6) London MIL advances into Dover.

Land Moves - Soviet Union
(1) HQ Yeremenko continues advancing along the Trans-Manchurian Railway
(2) Adjustments to INF positions in Belorussia.
(3) Red Army forces in Manchuria cross the Songhua river around Harbin.

[al] Land Combats
(1) Commonwealth attacks Mogadishu with the Cape Town MIL.
(2) With a certain amount of reluctance, the Red Army attacks Harbin.

[ax] Interesting.

[al] Do you want to CAP for ground support over Harbin?

[ax] Do I need it?

[al] No, your fighters have range to intercept and/or escort bombers.

[ax] Ok. That's what I thought.

[al] Your spare ftr2s are both A6M2 Zeroes (13 range).

[al] Attacker Shore Bombardment & Ground Support
(1) HMS Rodney supports Mogadishu combat.
(2) RAF flies to support Mogadishu combat.
(3) Red Army Air Force sends everything and the kitchen sink into supporting the attack on Harbin.

[al] Japan has the following aircraft that can fly:
- 2x A6M2 ftr2 (5 a2a, 1 tactical factor)
- 1x D3A1 nav2 (2 tactical factors)

[ax] What are the odds before and after Soviet ground support?

[al] Base attack: 35:6 = +10.667
After ground support: 50:6 = +15.667

[ax] Japan intercepts with both their A6M2 and flies their Val in for ground support.

[al] Air combat over Harbin.

[al] Round 1
Axis: 4 AX - destroy the fighter or bomber?

[ax] Destroy Fighter.

[al] Done.

Round 1
Allied: 19 AX PX. Allies choose the nav2.

Pretty deadly combat so far.

[ax] Ouch.

[ax] Japan's fighters stay.

[al] Both sides stay (USSR testing its luck, hoping for a clear...)

{Very brave. With the lone Soviet fighter group downed, this leads five unescorted Soviet bomber groups facing two Japanese Zero groups.}

[al] Round 2 is Japan +3/-2 Soviet Union
Axis: 12 AC Axis must clear a bomber.

[ax] Clear the lead bomber, Pe-2

[al] Round 2
Allied: 7 N/A

[ax] Japanese fighters will stay to the bitter end. Choose assault for both land combats. Any aborted Japanese fighters to Mukden.

[al] With no fighter support, a lnd4 exposed to attack, and a metric crapton of Japanese fighters scurrying about, the remaining bombers decide discretion is the better part of valour and abort. The Japanese return to Mukden after the air combat is over.

[al] Okay... on to resolution.

[al] First land combat to resolve is the attack on Harbin.
It's 38:6 = +12.667 -1 (city) = +11.667.
Assault, I presume?

[ax] Yes, please.

[al] Assault it is. USSR needs an 8 or better, fractional or no, to win, which by my reckoning is a 79% chance of winning.

[ax] Odds are definitely in your favor.

[al] First, a moment to steel myself against the possibility of disaster.

[ax] Know the feeling

[ax] Is what makes theses combats and this game so great.

[al] Combat rolls:
Fractional = 237 yes
Combat = 3 🤨

[ax] What!

[al] That's 2/1 and the Red Army is disorganised.

[ax] I really mean this; but I'm so sorry.

[al] No worries. These things happen.

[al] Guess the USSR used up their high roll on the air combat.

[ax] I'll take it.

[al] USSR loses the division and the 5-3 INF.

[al] Japan takes a loss as well - the TERR I presume?

[ax] Thanks.

[al] Japan loses 2-3 TERR.

[al] I guess this must be the equivalent of the Winter War in this game.

[ax] Or the opposite of the border war between the Soviets and Japan in 1939 on the Manchuria/Mongolian border.

Harbin, Manchuria.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Allied #5. (concluded).

[al] Next up, the attack on Mogadishu, which is a +19. Assault, I presume?

[ax] Yes please.

[al] Combat roll is 10. Easy win for the South Africans. (Red Army would like to trade rolls.)

[ax] Yes, I'm sure they would have.

[al] The South Africans advance into Mogadishu.

[al] Sending game at HQ reorg.

East Africa.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #6.

[ax] Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #6.
No DOW's. No Special Actions. No Alignments.
Actions. Germany - land, Italy - land, Japan - land.

Nazi-Soviet Pact. Start of Impulse.

{Don't have to worry about whether or not to break the pack this impulse. Germany's still shy by 4 garrison points.}

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #6. (continued)

[ax] Port Attack. None.

[ax] Naval Air. None.

[ax] Strategic Bombing. None.

[ax] Ground Strike. None.

[ax] Rail. Japan. None.

[ax] Rail. Germany x 3.
(1) II Para. France 57, 26 to Warsaw.
(2) Rundstedt HQ-A. France 57, 26 to Poland 54, 28.
(3) I Inf. Bordeaux to Poland 54, 28.

[ax] Rail. Italy. Graziani HQ-A. Italy 61, 34 to Boredaux.

[ax] Land Move Highlights.
(1) Japan. Manchuria. Forward Line of Troops (FLOT) adjustments.
(2) Japan. Northern China. None.
(3) Japan. Southern China. Pull back of FLOT.
(4) German. Western Front. Continue to move troops in France towards the East.
(5) Italy. Troops move into France and the Balkans.

Japan. Manchuria. A bit of Wargaming.

{If only I had more power in Manchuria. I could have cut off supply to all Soviet armies in Manchuria by moving the Harbin MIL into the swamp hex indicated in the screen CAP below. Though these armies would be out of supply and flipped, I still couldn't get much better than +7 or +8 and this would require me abandoning Harbin and attacking with everything I have available in the area.}

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #6. (continued)

[ax] Land Combat. None.

[ax] Scratch Land Combat. None.

[al] Uh-oh.

[ax] The Japanese can get +7 against the two USSR Siberian corps. So tempting.

[ax] And the extra loss doesn't apply.

[ax] And there's a chance to split the Soviet army in Manchuria.

[ax] And territorial losses can be replaced immediately next turn.

[ax] I think I've talked myself into making the attack.

[ax] Yes.

[ax] Land Combat. Japan vs 3rd & 4th Siberian corps at +7.
Your choice Assault or Blitz?

[al] Anything especially valuable among the attackers?

[ax] 2 garrisons, 1 MIL & 1 Terr comprise the attackers.

[al] Assault, please.

[ax] Ok. Assault it is.

[ax] Japan. Land Combat. Manchuria 60, 155. +7 A.
No fractional. 2D10=10. Result=17.
Both sides lose 1 unit but the Soviets hold.
Any preference whether you lose the 3rd or 4th Siberians?

[al] 4th Siberians, I guess.

[ax] Japan loses the Manchurian Terr.

Japan. Manchuria.

[rkr1958]

Turn 7. Sep/Oct 1940. Axis #6. (concluded)

[ax] Air Rebase. Germany x 4.
(1) Ju 52 ATR. France 58, 26 to Czech 54, 39.
(2) He 111. Brussels to Poland 54, 48.
(3) Bf 110C. Belgium 53,31 to Lodz, Poland.
(4) Bf 109E-4. Belgium 54, 32 to Czech 54,41.

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy. Ca.135. Trieste to Hungary 60,44.

[ax] Air Rebase. Japan. None.

[ax] That'll end my impulse at this point.

[ax] 07-SEP-OCT-1940-AX-06-EOI.zip game turn sent.

West to East.