OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Yikes! Florida went from bad to worse. 5,000 new cases yesterday, 9,000 new cases today! DeSantis victory lap not looking so good now https://www.towleroad.com/2020/04/gov-r ... ida-watch/

Yesterday DeSantis was crowing about not "slowing down reopening" . 24 hours later they are shutting down bars again https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-ba ... d/32981423#

warspite1

The warspites like to watch the Tim Tracker vlogs (to keep up to date with Disney) and he's put together some episodes post the re-opening (sort of) of Universal and SeaWorld. The Disney parks are due to re-open in limited fashion in July.

He's said that there are many within the parks who don't pay heed to social distancing and in some cases aren't wearing masks as they should. I wonder if the re-openings will go ahead - and if those parks that have re-opened will stay open?

[Canoerebel]

Don't make any hard plans yet. The situation is pretty fluid and there's immense pressure to act, so countermeasures might be reinstated, any place, any time.

To this point, mortality continues to drop steadily nationwide and in many states, so it doesn't yet seem that the increasing number of cases is similar to what we faced in February, March, April. I hope that proves true.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Don't make any hard plans yet. The situation is pretty fluid and there's immense pressure to act, so countermeasures might be reinstated, any place, any time.

To this point, mortality continues to drop steadily nationwide and in many states, so it doesn't yet seem that the increasing number of cases is similar to what we faced in February, March, April. I hope that proves true.

warspite1

Lol, no we are making no plans yet after the cancelling of plans for 2020... The idea of visiting Florida under the present conditions - even if the parks do open - holds zero appeal.

We have this strange situation where the contagiousness of the disease remains as powerful as ever, but I don't get any feel for how bad the disease actually is.

In Northern Italy, parts of Spain, the UK, France and the USA (to name but 5) you had large numbers of cases, leading to a great many deaths - including for so many doctors and nurses.

But now that does not seem to be the case. Why? I must confess I don't really know what is going on. But what I do know is that the seemingly reducing death rate is not helping when trying to impose lockdown on people who seem to have lost the fear factor. This, allied to the human need for people to get out and about means that getting people to obey social distancing (if re-imposed) may be difficult.

Just what the hell is going on with this thing?

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Don't make any hard plans yet. The situation is pretty fluid and there's immense pressure to act, so countermeasures might be reinstated, any place, any time.

To this point, mortality continues to drop steadily nationwide and in many states, so it doesn't yet seem that the increasing number of cases is similar to what we faced in February, March, April. I hope that proves true.

Hope so. In many cases it takes a long time to die from Covid. Sometimes people stay on vents for weeks and weeks. Got a daughter down in Florida due to come home July 4. She is staying a a fiends house in a small town and the friends father is a vascular surgeon so the know the drill. If my kid didn't have a negative anti-body test I would thing she is causing some of this. Seems to follow her everywhere

"That is because case numbers, hospitalizations, and test positivity are leading indicators while deaths are a lagging indicator of the disease’s spread"

https://www.texmed.org/Template.aspx?id=53858

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Florida is a dumpster fire. It's approaching 10% of the deaths New York has experienced.

I think Florida wishes it was dumpster fire. At least the fire would be in one place. All that coastline, big cities, all those young folks, all those old folks and 50/50 or so red/blue (no politics, just pointing out potential of folks not hearing each other). Every State has unique issues but Florida has a little bit of everything.

[JohnDillworth]

Right now I'd put the change of a full NFL season at 40%. I put the chance of a 60 game MLB season at 20% . Texas, Florida and California have 9 MLB teams between them (someone please check my math on that one) and those 3 states are getting hit hard right now. The NL East and AL East have Florida teams in their divisions. I'm not holding out hope for baseball this year. What they are proposing was so watered down I'd rather do without myself

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

That must have been an interesting conversation.....

I think the cruise lines are toast. which means that the shipyards that build them are toast too.

I did go fetch some dinner tonight. No food being served inside, just pick-up, but the door said you had to wear a mask. But the bar portion was open and literally not a soul was wearing a mask (hard to drink with a mask on). When I pulled mine down to get my credit card out of my wallet (not sure how many others have a difficult time seeing things with a mask and glasses on), nobody said boo.

Anyways - goodnight, ladies, gents, aliens, etc.

Yes, the cruise lines are toast: https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cost ... index.html

[Canoerebel]

Morehouse College in Atlanta cancelled fall sports. It's a small school but that trend is going to put increased pressure on others. In addition to the natural desire to get things right, there's a tremendous amount of pressure not to get things wrong, especially not to go against the grain. When the first big school cancels, all the rest are bound to follow. So unless things change for the better - or if they're better already, unless the perception changes - college football isn't going to happen this fall. And then, ditto pro football.

Deer hunting will be very popular this autumn, as turkey hunting was this spring.

[22sec]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Morehouse College in Atlanta cancelled fall sports. It's a small school but that trend is going to put increased pressure on others. In addition to the natural desire to get things right, there's a tremendous amount of pressure not to get things wrong, especially not to go against the grain. When the first big school cancels, all the rest are bound to follow. So unless things change for the better - or if they're better already, unless the perception changes - college football isn't going to happen this fall. And then, ditto pro football.

Deer hunting will be very popular this autumn, as turkey hunting was this spring.

I actually officiate college football, in fact I’ve called some games at Shorter and Berry, anyhow I digress. We were starting to feel like we would get a season in, but now I’m not sure. We haven’t received any information to indicate a shift, so we will see. I don’t know how the south will react if there is no college football.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, I didn't know that. Very interesting that you're a ref. (I'm looking out my office window at Berry property, this moment.)

Folks in the South will have to go deer hunting, fishing, or drive each other crazy.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Don't make any hard plans yet. The situation is pretty fluid and there's immense pressure to act, so countermeasures might be reinstated, any place, any time.

To this point, mortality continues to drop steadily nationwide and in many states, so it doesn't yet seem that the increasing number of cases is similar to what we faced in February, March, April. I hope that proves true.

warspite1

Lol, no we are making no plans yet after the cancelling of plans for 2020... The idea of visiting Florida under the present conditions - even if the parks do open - holds zero appeal.

We have this strange situation where the contagiousness of the disease remains as powerful as ever, but I don't get any feel for how bad the disease actually is.

In Northern Italy, parts of Spain, the UK, France and the USA (to name but 5) you had large numbers of cases, leading to a great many deaths - including for so many doctors and nurses.

But now that does not seem to be the case. Why? I must confess I don't really know what is going on. But what I do know is that the seemingly reducing death rate is not helping when trying to impose lockdown on people who seem to have lost the fear factor. This, allied to the human need for people to get out and about means that getting people to obey social distancing (if re-imposed) may be difficult.

Just what the hell is going on with this thing?

What seems to be going on is that the young clubbing crowd who were locked out of Spring Break carousing saw a chink of light in the door opening and rushed out to make up for lost time. The fear factor was never really there, because the teenage/early 20s years are the age of invincibility (imagined). And of course, they were getting a steady message about how harmless the virus is to young people. They barely thought about the other people they would be coming in contact with after the club/beach/bar.
And now there is a rising chorus among physicians that after infected young people seem to be free for virus symptoms, they are exhibiting signs or organ damage and/or chronic fatigue syndrome. This thing is just nasty in every way. [:(]

[Canoerebel]

From everything I've read, the incidence of permanent damage is sporadic and relatively small.

All of the hullabaloo in the press and by politicians makes me nervous, thinking that the steady decline in mortality may level off or reverse. Thus far, no signs of that.

From a personal perspective, my level of concern remains 1, on a scale of 1-10. It peaked in March at 3, when there was so much unknown and the sky seemed to be the limit. The virus isn't a major concern but collateral damage (the cascade effect) is.

[Canoerebel]

Here are the latest charts from Georgia. Steady increase in new cases for weeks now. Steady decrease in mortality since late April.

That's really remarkable. It's the reason I've posted so many comments the past few days about "something has to give." If cases go up, mortality has to also, right? Well, not so here (to date).

Many other states are in a similar situation.

That's why I have a concern level of 1 in a scale of 1-10. Protect the elderly and the vulnerable. But unless this thing is fatal to the working generations, okay, we continue working, just as we did during prior pandemics. Arguably, we had to shut the country down when skyrocketing mortality was the issue. If it isn't, no, we have to forge ahead.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From everything I've read, the incidence of permanent damage is sporadic and relatively small.

All of the hullabaloo in the press and by politicians makes me nervous, thinking that the steady decline in mortality may level off or reverse. Thus far, no signs of that.

From a personal perspective, my level of concern remains 1, on a scale of 1-10. It peaked in March at 3, when there was so much unknown and the sky seemed to be the limit. The virus isn't a major concern but collateral damage (the cascade effect) is.

Mortality as a percentage of infection rate should never be as high as it was. There is much that is not known but the medical establishment knows much more than it did. There is at least one anti-viral that has helped and at least one steroid. We knew nothing in the beginning, now we know many of the vectors it attacks along. We have learned, we are protecting the most vulnerable as best we can. The danger of being overwhelmed remains. Houston and Phoenix and Miami are close to the edge. We, the collective we, the entire country, will not let that happen. In some respects however, we ar3 further behind than we were in April. 92-95% of the population is still vulnerable to this. The average time to develop an effective vaccine is 20 years. The fastest vaccine ever developed, the one for mumps, took 4 years. There will not be a vaccine this year, it is unlikely there will be one next year. It is unlikely because it never has been done. Even if one is developed next year manufacturing hundreds of millions, if not billions of doses, will take time. Yes, mortality rate is lower, but, as Stalin said, Quantity has a Quality all it's own. Unless we slow the rate of infection there will be many millions infected, and we have not done much to slow this thing down. Every day is a new record. We are not winning

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


That's why I have a concern level of 1 in a scale of 1-10.

On what level though? The US as a whole? The USA as a whole with the caveat of higher concern about the apparent trouble spots? Georgia in isolation? Your home county and your own personal situation?

I'm not trying to have a pop - just trying to get a handle on where you are coming from. My own 'concern levels' vary pretty wildly depending on what perspective I look at the situation from.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I meant it personally - me, my family, my community.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I meant it personally - me, my family, my community.

That's fair enough. On an individual level I'm at 1 also. On a family level maybe 4 but that's through individual circumstance rather than the big picture.

On the numbers in the US at the moment I think things do remain up in the air. Looking at the case fatality rates I've got:

NY 7 day case peak vs 7 day death peak 10,000 vs 950 (daily) - 9.5%
US overall cases vs deaths 2.54mill vs 127,000 - 5%
7 day (daily) average for cases on 05/06 vs deaths on 15/06 - 25.4k vs 757 - 3.0%
7 day (daily) average for cases on 15/06 vs deaths on 25/06 - 22.4k vs 609 - 2.7%

So the good news is that the CFR is going down.

The reason for concern would be that the current CFR is 'only' 4 times lower than the peak CFR was in NY over two months ago. If cases in a certain area are doubling every week then to keep mortality stable the CFR would have to halve every week. On the current data that doesn't look like it is happening. Obviously we hope that in 2-3 weeks it will show otherwise. But for the moment we can only work with what we have.

One slightly counter-intuitive way of looking at the situation in the US is that you could almost argue that some states might have actually locked down too early. Potentially they have expended the large majority of their behavioural and economic 'wriggle room' at a time when the local risks were pretty low and are now in a situation where the numbers are looking grim but there is far less behavioural/economic resilience to the types of measures that might be required to get things back under control.

[Canoerebel]

I agree with you. My wife and I were just discussing that. Compliance was high with the March lockdown, but I don't think it'll be as widespread if there's another. Certain areas (areas hard hit, or people perceiving a high risk), but in many areas, especially rural, semi-rural and suburban, no way.

[RangerJoe]

I agree as well about the lockdowns. With the closest known cases 30 kilometers or 20 miles away, why should we be locked down here? The apartment building that I live in has a common kitchen and dining room yet it was closed. It is now open with half of the chairs stacked up. Few people are using it, no puzzles have started, nor any BINGO games either. I will call bingo when it happens but they might have to tell me to lower my voice . . .

How do you get a bunch of old ladies to swear? Call BINGO before they do! [:-]

[Sammy5IsAlive]

It's a difficult one though isn't it. We are blessed with 20/20 hindsight. If I'm an elected official in the US in late March, having seen what had already happened in Wuhan and Northern Italy and seeing that progression beginning to repeat itself in Spain/New York etc I'm going to find it very difficult to say lets carry on and wait till we start to get hit harder.

That more political angle aside I do think that as difficult as things might get in the next couple of months in Florida/Texas/California etc it is better to have an epidemic curve at 2-3% case mortality now than one at 5%+ a month or two ago.