Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

An air superiority campaign won't work when your pools are limited and the other side's aren't. Not against a player like ERik anyhow, and with the circumstances and HRs he's working with. As I noted above, I have 100+ P-51Ds in the pools. Ditto the P-38L, F4U1-C and F4U1-D. Those are the long-range fighters available for escort duty and sweeps. That's about four day's reserve. We can all do the math and understand that daylight strat bombing isn't possible. (The P-51H an the F4U4 have a much shorter range and their pools even shallower.)

I had hoped that closing on the Japanese bases and attacking in overwhelming numbers might work. It didn't. I got the mega-raids I'd been hoping for - massive numbers heavily escorted. But CAP and flak over a relatively lightly defended enemy base were devastating. Imagine trying against Tokyo, with its 600+ fighters!

So the alternative is to engage in nighttime missions.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[&:]

The industry button at the top of the screen. Alfred weighed in on one discussion and said it IS possible for the Allied player to run out of HI points if some industry is destroyed/shut down and pilot training, loss replacement etc. is extreme. So it occurred to me that this could be an issue for your A-bomb. Just click the button and look at the HI accumulated total - if it is not several millions I suspect that may account for the dearth of A-bombs.

[Canoerebel]

Oh. In your original post, there was a typo: "I wonder if your second HI is dependent on etc." Since I was already skating on the edge of reason and understanding, the typo spun me out of orbit into catastrophic and a terminal re-entry.

Thanks for the tip. I checked the screen and it seems that HI is fine, with 7.836 million or some such.

[RangerJoe]

Could you entice the Japanese into a CAP trap by appearing to mass the DS and the loaded Herd for an invasion, then send in PT boats on a suicide mission, covered by massive CAP/LRCAP?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oh. In your original post, there was a typo: "I wonder if your second HI is dependent on etc." Since I was already skating on the edge of reason and understanding, the typo spun me out of orbit into catastrophic and a terminal re-entry.

Thanks for the tip. I checked the screen and it seems that HI is fine, with 7.836 million or some such.

My cordless mouse is getting a sticky left button that often registers a double click when I try to do a single click. It must have selected the word A-bomb and when I hit the space bar it deleted it. Should have proof read my post!


Your HI does seem to be sufficient - I have no further ideas on the lack of another bomb. Enough time has gone by that random reasons just seem improbable.

[Canoerebel]

10/20/45 and 10/21/45

Strategic Bombing: After the big raid on the 19th, Allied 4EB stood down. On the night of the 21st, all were set to hit Osaka Manpower, from 15k to 19k.

Weather again cooperated, with all bombers flying. As usual, nighttime caused many to turn back. But many made it. The first few raids were large, faced large nighttime CAP, and set only 8k fires. Then came dribs and drabs, many of which didn't have fighter opposition but did deal with some flak. Some of these were fairly successful.

On the night, the bombers set 48k fires. Osaka was a virgin target, so all damage is from this raid: Manpower 133(6); Resources 274(7); HI 1903(48); LI 1864(47); Frances 30(1); Frank 30(1). There are 7.5k residual fires, so more damage to come.

I lost 26 B29-25, 14 B-24J (a few of those might've been elsewhere), 8 B-17G, and 1 B29-B. That's 98 bomber points, I think, which is definitely sustainable.

I'll revise this later tonight to add the points scored, which will be the key to determining whether this raid was "successful." IE, if it scored, say 300-400 points, it's probably worthwhile.

Caveat: Osaka didn't seem to have much flak, per Recon and per the actual mission. Other bases may exact a heavier toll.

Caveat 2: The Liberators and the Flying Forts scored basically no hits at all. Next time I intend to set them very high, hoping they'll draw some of the fighter opposition. The Superforts seem to be the only bombers that score at night.

[Canoerebel]

Strat Points 10/20/45: 16,778
Strat Points 10/21/45: 17,660

Hey, the raid scored 900 points (gross), about 800 points (net). So nighttime missions at altitude are worth doing.

Future raids won't be as successful, because most of Dave's major bases have more flak. This one had a lot of night fighters, but he'll switch even more over as soon as he figures out what I'm doing.

Still, there's room to work with here.

[Canoerebel]

Wait a second.

I need to back up and take a second look. It's possible that residuals on the costly Nagoya raid three turns back is paying considerably bigger dividends than anticipated. I'll take a more careful look to see if I can't get an accurate tally on how well (and costly) each of the two raids was.

But I know the ultimate conclusion is the same. Daytime raids are not sustainable because my fighters and bombers don't have the pools. So it's gotta be nighttime raids, with the occasional daytime thrown in (maybe) to keep Erik honest.

[BBfanboy]

You only get 2 VPs per point of industry damaged (20 per point destroyed, if any were). 900 points sounds pretty high considering the damage numbers you posted.

[Canoerebel]

10/19/45: The base line for the calcuations on the eve of resuming the strategic bombing campaign.

Here, the Allies have 15.9k Strat Points total. Nagoya (the target tonight and tomorrow) is untouched, as is Osaka (the target in three nights).

[Canoerebel]

10/20/45

Raid on Nagoya, Nightime and Daytime: The costly raids on Nagoya gross 600 points. This doesn't include residuals, and there are 16k fires still burning. You can see the damage to industry here. Let's see if/how the damage increases/the fires spread over the next day or two.

Info not shown for Osaka, because no raids there yet.

[Canoerebel]

10/21/45

Nagoya: On this day of rest for the air force, residual fires at Nagoya (decreasing from 16k to 4k) gross another 170 points.

[Canoerebel]

10/22/45

Nightime Raid, Osaka: On the turn of this big raid, limited to night, Strat Points increase by 900. Some of this is attributable to residual fires at Nagoya (fires decrease from 4k to 1k), but apparently not much. Most of these 900 points appear to come from Osaka, where I lost just 100 points in bombers.

[Canoerebel]

10/23/45

Day of Rest: The bombers stand down, but residual fires at Osaka wreak havoc.

I've noticed before that fires at bases with big Resources, LI and HI seem to burn much longer and more effectively than at bases (even major bases) with relatively low values in those categories.

There's no doubt the preferred approach is nighttime bombing of the big "Resource"-type bases, especially Tokyo and Osaka. I'll focus on those two in the coming few weeks, trying to get at them before Erik moves to concentrate his flak there.

So, in four turns, two with raids and two standing down, the Allies score about 2,500 points at a cost of about 500 points in 4EB. Net is 2,000 points. That's not bad. But I can't use daytime raids, due to meager bomber and fighter pools.

[Canoerebel]

It's also possible that Osaka is a plum target because it has much more Manpower than (all?) other bases. For example, the effect may be amplified if you set 10k fires at a base with 130 Manpower as opposed to one with 5 Manpower. That's just a hypothesis.

I think the pickings get pretty slim once the Allied strategic points get well into the 30k territory. So I'm hoping my bombers can work on another 12k to 22k over the next two months.

Anyhow, all 4EB in range will target Osaka Manpower again tonight.

[Canoerebel]

10/24/45

Strategic Bombing: A second all-out night raid vs. Osaka scores very well against heavy opposition.

The weather cooperated so that strikes flew from China, Korea, Hokkaido and Sikhalin Island. Hundreds of bombers against well over 100 night fighters. Eventually the CAP tuckered out and the bombers were unopposed. Flak at 17k to 21k was modest.

The bombers set 94k fires (much heavier than the first raid) at a cost of about 54 4EB (108 points) and while downing about 35 enemy fighters (35 points). Points scored on the day were 550 - some of that was residual fires from two turns back, but most probably from today.

There are still 19k fires burning, so there should be some interest paid on the investment over the next couple of days.

This is remarkably profitable venture. Long term prospects aren't this rosy. So far, every raid from every city has flown - no weather problems. That won't last. And Erik will modify his defenses to make it tougher. But I can adjust a bit too, seeking secondary targets or even some daytime raids.

The Allies get 37 zillion bombers in late 1945. The B-17s and B-24s and Lancasters don't score many hits but do soak off some of the fighters, frring up the Superforts to set enough fires to harvest real points.

[tarkalak]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[&:]

The industry button at the top of the screen. Alfred weighed in on one discussion and said it IS possible for the Allied player to run out of HI points if some industry is destroyed/shut down and pilot training, loss replacement etc. is extreme. So it occurred to me that this could be an issue for your A-bomb. Just click the button and look at the HI accumulated total - if it is not several millions I suspect that may account for the dearth of A-bombs.

The bomb has production of 1 per month, right. With the WTIPAE production model, that means that you have a whooping 1/30 (or 1/31, 1/28, 1/29 depending on the days of the month) chance to get one every day. You should get 1 per month on average, but ...

1. In a month with 30 days you have 29/30 chance to not get a bomb every day or (29/30)^30 ≈ 0.36166 ≈ 36% chance to not get any this month.
2. In a month with 31 days you have 30/31 chance to not get a bomb every day or (30/31)^31 ≈ 0.36186 ≈ 36% chance to not get any this month.
3. In a month with 28 days you have 27/28 chance to not get a bomb every day or (27/28)^28 ≈ 0.36121 ≈ 36% chance to not get any this month.

So in short term you have 36% chance of being bombless every month.

In the long run this is balanced by the chance of getting more than one bomb per month.

And of course, I have never been great in probability, so my math might be wrong. [8D]

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



The Allies get 37 zillion bombers in late 1945. The B-17s and B-24s and Lancasters don't score many hits but do soak off some of the fighters, frring up the Superforts to set enough fires to harvest real points.

Interesting. The Lancaster was of course the premier night-time bomber in the European theater IRL, so I would have thought it would do better. Maybe the scenario needs a tweak?

[Canoerebel]

It's too early for conclusions. I've only used the Lancasters twice, in relatively small numbers. It's true that they didn't score well but there could be reasons for that.

Tonight, another big, multi-base raid schedule for Osaka Manpower - Lancasters at 24.5k, B-17s at 30k; B-24s at 21k; B-29s of all kinds at 17k; a few random squadrons set much lower for Port attack.

Since the -17s, -24s and Lancasters haven't scored hits but have soaked off enemy fighters, the intent here is to draw some fighters high to perhaps free up more of the -29s.

It looks like Osaka has weirdly few flak units compared to other high-value bases. Erik will either adjust or, if he feels like Osaka is already hit too hard, he might just concentrate on his other pristine bases (Tokyo, Yokohama and a few others have never been targeted).

[Canoerebel]

10/25/45 to 10/31/45

Intel Screen: A quick look at points. Allies are ahead now by about 34k, with 2k in strategic points in the past week. Nightime massed raids of manpower centers with lots of general industry is the way to go. My bomber losses have been modest in comparison to points scored, so it's efficient.

As noted a week or two back, I think the Allies will end the year ahead by about 40k to 60k. That seems about right.

Still no second atomic bomb. That might cost 5k to 20k points (the first scored just 4k but many players report much higher totals).

Tomorrow might be fun -the first big nighttime raid on Yokahama and a big daytime sweep over Fukuoka, following yesterday's successful daytime sweep there.

I think Shanghai may fall before the end of the year. The first probing attack by Allied armor came off something like 500 points to 28,500 points, but still did some encouraging damage while not incurring heavy damage.

Erik remains mostly docile, except in maintaining his MLR in China, maintaining his air defenses in the Home Islands, and moving a few TFs around the Pacific. I bet he has at least one good offensive left in him, but will see.

I see now advantage in testing his kamikaze abilities. There's too many better ways - less risky - to score points.