Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

It has to be a base hex.

[RangerJoe]

Dang! Then the manual is wrong again. Section 7.2.4 states that ground units can be dropped on an enemy location. Section 7.2.4.1 states that parachute units can be dropped into an enemy location up to the Normal Range of the transport aircraft.

My bad. [:@]

[Canoerebel]

Nah. You know so much about the game. I admire those with the self-discipline to read the manual. But it's encouraging that sometimes I'm right on a point of minutiae that means something tangible in playing the game.

[RangerJoe]

After working on computers as well as some programming courses a long time ago, I learned to read the manual. I also look at a map for directions. [X(]

[CaptBeefheart]

If both players agree, can you turn off combat replays? Heck, in games I've taken to 1945 I usually don't even read the combat report unless I see something unusual in the losses.

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

I suggested that to Erik about four or five days ago. He tried it but couldn't get it to work in time for that turn, which is the only one he's sent since then. But I think he intends to fiddle with the switches more.

I get the feeling that his exhaustion goes beyond the tediousness of the replay. I think he has too many games, taking too much time. Last week, when he posted a bunch of AAR entries, I wondered if he wasn't burning his candles at both ends.

He may need a long stretch of down time to recharge his batteries.

[tolsdorff]

Vishy Anand lost a heartbreaking match to Caruana yesterday in the Tata Steel Masters. He gave away a completely winning position. These things can be extremely upsetting for grandmasters of that level.

Erik must be very demoralized, reaching 1946 only to still lose, knowing he would have won against practically anybody else.

[Canoerebel]

Thank you. That's a nice compliment.

Erik and I both are playing the game, as a game, versus simulating real life. As such, we're bound by the rules and victory conditions, etc. By that measure, the game currently assigns the Allies a "Major Victory." But, as I've noted above, by my measure this match is a draw.

Why? Because I don't think the victory conditions do a reasonable job of measuring the skill with which the the game has been played. The creators of the game did a magnificent job. They put alot of thought into the victory conditions. Playing by those conditions is fun. But I'm persuaded that those conditions are unintentionally biased towards the Allied player.

So I call it a draw. I'm very pleased to have achieved that, against a player of Erik's caliber.

[RangerJoe]

I don't think that either of you lost. I think that both of you are winners. Granted, Eric has many games going on but at least he didn't activate the Soviets early in this game.

[Canoerebel]

Nearing (but not at) the Endgame

We're at mid-January 1946 (I'll post an update later), so I've been thinking over the game and its turning points. For me, as the Allied player, there were three crucial decisions in the game. Remember, I stepped in for Joseph (SqzMyLemon) effective 3/1/1944.

1. The entire Allied OOB was weighted in SWPac, from Rabaul and PM back. (The secondary front in Burma was in the woods, low on supply and still fighting with 1941 squads!) From reading Obvert's and Joseph's AARs, I knew Obvert was prepared to counter any thrust out of SWPac. So, where to for the Allies? Based on all kinds of info and hunches, I chose NoPac. It took more than three months to shift everything around for the late June '44 invasion of Sikhalin Island. That big gamble succeeded but it also resulted in about four months of nip-and-tuck fighting, as Erik fought viciously. Hey, the Allies prevailed!

2. But then, by late '44, I found that the Allies were stuck in a corner. Due to Erik's immense fighter corps, pilot quality, AA, and thin Allied fighter pools, strategic bombing wasn't going to be efficient for the Allies from what few large enemy bases are within decent range of Sikhalin Island. Moreover, the Allies were bottled up in Burma and Erik held all of China in a vice-like grip. Somehow, I had to open a new front to the South. The decision was made to shift the Allied army from Sikhalin Island to China via invasion, while also awaiting the right chance to move the army in India/Burma to Malaya via invasion. All that took a very long time but was ultimately successful, which then opened up Singers, Sumatra, Java, Borneo, Luzon, Formosa and Indochina.

3. With the Allies holding a good lodgment on the China coast, the Russians activating, and a huge Allied force moving north from Indochina/Luzon, the question was whether to immediately invade the Home Islands or Korea or to instead work deep into China to handle Chungking and other huge points centers. I chose the latter. I felt confident that the Allies could take Chungking before the end of February 1946 (when I think the game ends). I had doubts whether there would still be enough time to handle most of the other big enemy bases, like Hong Kong, Changsha, etc. I didn't think there was any chance of time enough remaining to then move on to Korea or the Home Islands.

I was wrong. The Allies steamrolled through China and took Chungking by early January. Now they're expeditiously moving on the remaining enemy bases, which are all falling or cracking quickly. And most of the huge Allied army in China will make it to Korea by late January or early February.

I also had notions of an Allied invasion of Hokkaido, most likely Bihoro, but I didn't like the idea of a big amphibious op under meager carrier protection close to huge enemy airfields, when Erik has been shepherding his kamikazes for the entire game (and I have little confidence in LRCAP under these conditions). Eventually, I decided to land a massive reinforcing army at Wakkanai for an overland campaign starting from there and aimed at Sapporo. The first key attack will take place tomorrow, in the forest hex south of Wakkanai.

The Allied OOB is utterly immense at this point, so the game is little fun for Erik. The challenge is whether the Allies can achieve 2:1 by the end of February. I think it's 50/50.

There's also indications Erik's economy may be cracking. The Jap army in China has no supply, which isn't a surprise. He's not defending air attacks from Hiroshima on south. And recent Allied air raids vs. airfields on Hokkaido did heavy damage that Erik doesn't seem to be repairing. Repairs don't take supply, but I wonder if his engineers are inactive or gone? Even if he is hurting now, he'll be marshalling his assets for final battles around his core bases (Tokyo to Osaka), so there's a need for caution until the situation clarifies.

[RangerJoe]

The biggest reason why the game is taking so long is, as you pointed out, redirecting and upgrading your forces. That is a good reason for having multiple vectors to advance, especially if the Japanese fleet and air units are relatively intact and his pilots are experienced and have deep pools. Both of you have done very well and I am sure that both of you have learned a lot.

I hope that Joseph is looking down and smiling at both of you.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/46

Intel Screen: The Allies are about 18.5k from victory with about 45 days left. So I need to score roughly 500 points per turn while holding Erik to 0 points overall (not impossible due to him regularly losing base points).

There's a chance, mainly because Japan will still lose a lot of base points and army loss points in China, with little or no losses for the Allies. And there are some good points in the Ryukus, though at greater risk of effective enemy counterattack (from a points standpoint).

The Allies will also try to score points in Korea, Hokkaido and via strategic bombing.

There's a small chance of an invasion of the southern Home Islands, but only if Japan's air defenses collapse early enough to permit pulling together such an op.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/46

China: Japanese defenses have collapsed. It's a race now, as Allied armies spread out to pick off remaining high-value enemy bases. A sizeable amount of the Allied army will move directly to Korea.

[Canoerebel]

1/13/46

Home Island and Korea: Except for strategic bombing, these areas have been quiet the past year. Things are about to heat up, beginning with Hokkaido.

[RangerJoe]

You should send this to Eric and suggest it as the new Japanese Army's Chinese theme song:

The Animals - We've Gotta Get Out Of This Place

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUpBSvN1a50

[Canoerebel]

Somehow, when I clicked on your link, I must've clicked twice and the second click must've directed me elsewhere, because I ended up with a video of The Band and its version of "The Weight." Hey, that was good.

I then figured out my boo-boo and watched your link.

P.S. Thanks for the to Joseph aka SqzMyLemon.

[Canoerebel]

1/14/46 to 1/17/46

Erik found the way to turn off combat animations, cutting his turn time by 75%. Now he's flipping turns.

The Night They Drove Ol' Dixie Down: For the past few months, the game has felt like the Civil War in the winter of 1865, especially since the Japanese position in China fell apart. The Allies are moving all over the place, steamrolling, striking effectively, taking important bases, and the enemy seems holed up, licking its wounds. Erik still has a strong airforce and enough of a navy to put power on a particular point under the right circumstances. What I don't know is whether his economy is collapsing or whether he still has a strong reserve. I have to assume the latter, so I remain cautious about placing assets in positions where his air force could attack en masse.

Hokkaido: The Allies blew through the enemy force in the woods hex south of Wakkanai. That force, it turned out, was mixed brigades. Tomorrow, Allied armor will attack another hex to the SW. If the Allies prevail - and they will, tomorrow or the day after - then the Allies will be proximate to Sapporo. To this point, I don't see evidence that Erik is reinforcing - supply may be the issue. Sapporo is key because it's airfield is 11 hexes from Tokyo - the max range of the P-80 Shooting Star and the P-51H (the late-war Mustangs and Corsairs have far less range than the earlier models). The Allied army at Kushiro is moving west, towards Sapporo/Hakodate. And a sizeable amphibious force will take station north of Bihoro tomorrow, with D-Day the day after, if things go well. Here I'm exposing ships, but Erik doesn't seem to have patrols up and most of his airfields are wrecked. I'll monitor detection levels carefully before committing but I'm thinking Hokkaido may turn into "stole second base on catcher's indifference."

China: Changsha is likely to fall tomorrow. Major Allied army to coalesce at Canton in about four days - far more than is needed for the base. Western and Russian 2EB and 1EB are handling the Japanese stacks that have retreated off road. I don't think the enemy will have any bases in China in two weeks, except for a couple of meaningless ones in the Himalayas and other extremities. Many Allied units are reporting to Shanghai, for likely invasions of the Ryukus and Pescadores and a possible invasion of Moppo. Another sizeable continents of units is moving by rail to reinforce Korea.

Victory Conditions: The score fluctuates a bit, as Japanese bases fall below the supplies needed or recover the amount needed, effecting the denominator by about +/- 500 each day. Overall the IJ lead is down to about 16.5k. The imminent fall of Changsha, Canton and Hong Kong, and the possibility that Sapporo, Asahikawa and Bihoro will follow suit inside ten days, will bump things considerably. If Erik continues passive, I think there's a decent chance of 2:1 by the end of February. But he's a good and aggressive player, so unlikely to sit on his hands while Richmond burns.

[Canoerebel]

I just looked at Victory Conditions in the manual (my first look in that book in years, 'cause I'm lazy).

It appears to me the game ends March 31, 1946.

The Allies can achieve AV by reaching 2:1 anytime before then. I think that would be rated an Allied marginal victory, under the rules. If the Allies don't achieve 2:1 by then, the game is rated a draw (because the current ratio merits a Decisive Victory nudged down two levels due to the late date).

So, basically, draw it is, which mirrors my own feelings.

[RangerJoe]

Excellent game, you are both winners. Which is better than being Weiners.

[Canoerebel]

1/18/46

Points: Allies are about 15.5K from 2:1 and scoring well, with a lot of "easy" points coming from high-value bases and enemy army losses. I think for Erik to Battle of the Bulge, he needs to configure a strong setback of the Allies forces in and around Hokkaido or the Allied shipping in and near Tungchow, China (including Death Star). He shows no signs of counterattacking, yet, but then a surprise counterattack always follows a nice, quiet spell in which "the Allies will be home by Christmas, etc."

Strategic Bombing: Nagasaki is pretty much destroyed. There is some pockets of surviving industry, but pretty soon only the Kobe to Tokyo corridor will remain. I don't want to probe there until I have airfields within range 11 of any particular bases, so that the P-80s and P-51Hs can take a stab at daytime sweeps against the enemy's big fighter bastions.

China: Changsha and Paoshan fell today. Chengtu (big denominator) is cracking and may fall in a few days. Remaining enemy pockets of value for bases and army points: Canton/Hong Kong; Kunming/Tuyun; Wuchang; Chengtu; Liuchow. That's it.

Hokkaido: Allied armor easily brushed back remnant army in the forests; next stop, Asahikawa. Movement dot indicates Erik might be withdrawing from Bihoro, on the north coast. Major Allied amphibious landing there tomorrow (this exposes a lot of valuable shipping, but the ships show no detection and many of Erik's airfields are badly damaged - I don't think he's even paying attention up here any longer.

I think and hope Erik still has at least one major counterattack left, but its possible that the Japanese economy has gone up the spout, so that he can only put up fighters to defend and that's about it.