OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[RangerJoe]

With 20/20 hindsight, it would have been known to lock down the nursing homes and assisted living facilities and not force them to accept Covid-19 patients. It would have also been known to check the staff of those facilities at the start of every shift as well as during the shift if needed. Any business, governmental entity or organization should have also made it clear that if you are sick, stay home!

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

With 20/20 hindsight, it would have been known to lock down the nursing homes and assisted living facilities and not force them to accept Covid-19 patients. It would have also been known to check the staff of those facilities at the start of every shift as well as during the shift if needed. Any business, governmental entity or organization should have also made it clear that if you are sick, stay home!

Certainly agree on the care homes. I can't really comment on what happened in NY but in the UK at least I think the government got spooked by seeing the hospitals get overwhelmed in Italy and reacted by 'clearing the decks' on the wards. That almost certainly cost far more lives in the care homes than it saved in the hospitals. I don't think the 'hindsight' argument gets the UK government of the hook for that.

[RangerJoe]

I have been a patient in a nursing home. The staff does not have the training for the care needed except for maybe the nurses but there are no quarantined rooms with a negative pressure with exhaust sent to the outside. That is the type of room needed and the staff needs to be trained with constant training for that type of situation so skill don't get old and forgotten. Assisted living facilities are even worse as far as the number of nurses per resident. Been there are well.

[RangerJoe]

This makes sense:

Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson will isolate from wife, Catherine, for entire football season

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 262622001/

[Canoerebel]

He's got it backwards.

[:)]

[Canoerebel]

The media has finally begun picking up on the disparity between rising cases and falling mortality, which we've been discussing here in great detail for a week or two. Today there were stories in The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. The latter seemed to miss the main focus in our discussions = that the biggest reason is protection of the elderly and vulnerable. Bloomberg is also all over the fact that death is a lagging indicator, stressing over and over that it can be "14 or 15 days," but missing the point that many states have had rising cases but falling mortality for far more than 14 or 15 days.

[Canoerebel]

And daily mortality in the US continues to decline. The rate of decrease seems to be slowing - the curve flattening. Over the next week, it'll be instructive to see if it begins to rise. Again, hoping for the best but wondering.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The media has finally begun picking up on the disparity between rising cases and falling mortality, which we've been discussing here in great detail for a week or two. Today there were stories in The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. The latter seemed to miss the main focus in our discussions = that the biggest reason is protection of the elderly and vulnerable. Bloomberg is also all over the fact that death is a lagging indicator, stressing over and over that it can be "14 or 15 days," but missing the point that many states have had rising cases but falling mortality for far more than 14 or 15 days.

In the early stages of this, before the evidence was out on how it behaved, we failed to lock down early enough not knowing the spread was accelerated by a predominance od mild or asymptomatic cases as well as a lack of testing for symptomatic cases.

As predicted in the earlier thread, opening risky indoor businesses (bars, restaurants, hair cutting, tattooing, etc) before cases are low, Ro is below one and testing is high to provide possibility of track and trace, this will take off again.

You're stuck on mortality at a time when we know we won't see mortality figures. The rising of cases has happened in the past two weeks for the most part. With 3-14 day incubation (now thought to be sometimes longer), by the time you see the cases it's already well into exponential growth without extensive testing and then some isolation. By the end of the second week the severity usually sets in and it's only then most severe cases actually begin going to hospitals.

There is no silver lining in this recent second wave. It's bad. We hoped summer and measures would lessen it. That isn't happening.

[JohnDillworth]

Lower mortality in and of itself is a hollow victory. Lets exaggerate the numbers for a moment.
10% of 1 million is 100,000 dead
1% of 100 million is 100,000 dead

I know people that survived this are are back at work. They were really sick for a long time and may have permanent effects. We had one back in 2 weeks but most were out 6 weeks or longer. Some still can't stand or walk for long. Not dead is better then dead but hardly a victory. Many people are going to get sick. I'm starting to think that all those people that made all those sacrifices, the hundreds of thousands that got sick, the millions that lost their jobs, the lost business have all been for nothing. We are no better off then we were in March. The country did not quarantine long enough or effectively enough. Hope is a terrible strategy and it failed completely in the United States. Had we locked down hard in the first place, and I don't think much of the country did, and for just another 4 weeks, we would not be where we are now. Where we are now is not good.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


That's why I have a concern level of 1 in a scale of 1-10.

On what level though? The US as a whole? The USA as a whole with the caveat of higher concern about the apparent trouble spots? Georgia in isolation? Your home county and your own personal situation?

I'm not trying to have a pop - just trying to get a handle on where you are coming from. My own 'concern levels' vary pretty wildly depending on what perspective I look at the situation from.

Our concerns vary over time here. With a baby in mum's tummy for much of the pandemic, and a birth that happened days after the peak here in the UK our fears were mostly for my wife and child. We still all think we may have had it already, but not sure if there would be any protection for the little one from mum's antibodies. He did get his BCG immunization two weeks ago which is thought to offer some protection.

In my Borough of London we've fared relatively well, and since 99% of our time and interactions have taken place here during the past almost four months, we've felt somewhat less worried about seeing our friends once allowed and going to the store and parks. Waltham Forest has a 1 per 388 infection rate at present.

Wandsworth, where Sammy5IsAlive is based has 1 in 303. The hardest hit in London has been Southwark, at 1 in 223.

Personnel perspective is potentially misleading in terms of actual risk. In the States obviously the NYC area has a very high per capita infection rate, at 1 in 39 in NYC but even higher at 1 in 28 in Westchester County.

For Dan, Floyd County is much lower than NYC at 1 in 199 people infected. That is however, a higher rate than any area in London, another of the hardest hit urban areas. Georgia now as a whole has a higher new case rate per day than all of the UK over the past 7 days, with the highest of those being the past three days. The partying summertime festivities here might change that soon, although I hope the low case rate, sun, and outdoors keep the spread low.

We might all feel less risk in our own bubbles, but the data supports some care in terms of continued social distancing in many areas that haven't lowered case numbers or are seeing a daily increase, including mask wearing and other precautions, until this recent new wave is under control.

[fcooke]

That's a tough one JD. I think it will be years before we really have the data (accurate that is) to figure out what the best approach to this thing would be. You really cannot lockdown. Still need to buy food unless you are on a farm. It will slow the spread and 'crush the curve', but until there is a vac it will be out there and the heartless part of me says we got to get out there again. And as stated earlier, the vac probably is not coming for a while. Meanwhile all kinds of collateral damage is occurring, and it going to take the over-taxed medical community a while to figure everything out, though as you mentioned, they are learning many things in the crucible.....tough way to learn.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: fcooke

That's a tough one JD. I think it will be years before we really have the data (accurate that is) to figure out what the best approach to this thing would be. You really cannot lockdown. Still need to buy food unless you are on a farm. It will slow the spread and 'crush the curve', but until there is a vac it will be out there and the heartless part of me says we got to get out there again. And as stated earlier, the vac probably is not coming for a while. Meanwhile all kinds of collateral damage is occurring, and it going to take the over-taxed medical community a while to figure everything out, though as you mentioned, they are learning many things in the crucible.....tough way to learn.

Yes, you can really lockdown. One only need to look at NYC. look at Korea, look at most of Western Europe............They didn't need to be prefect, they just needed to be good. They were good and the results speak for themselves. They are where the rest of the country needs to be. Not perfect, but any uptick can quickly be tamped down until there is a vaccine. Texas and Florida can lockdown again now, or lockdown again later, but there is not other way forward. They tried the easy way. There is not easy way. Infections are higher than they were in March. That is astonishing. That should not have happened. You know what else is years away? Single digit unemployment, manageable deficients, restoration of the economic ruin of many lives and business, economic growth, tourists, nice vacations, safely going to gyms, bars, restaurants, sporing events and movie theaters. But hey, we got haircuts.

[BBfanboy]

JohnDillworth: But hey, we got haircuts.

[:D]
You forgot manicures, pedicures and massages!

Lockdown here has never meant not being able to go out for essentials. Grocery stores limited the number of customers in the store, required masks, set up one-way aisles and disinfected hands and carts. It worked well, except for the queueing in the cold before spring. I hope we don't have to do it in the depths of winter.

I think the comment on mortality not being the key consideration is correct when looking at getting the economy moving again. Europe is already banning travel from the USA because of the outbreaks which indicate the epidemic is not controlled enough to take a chance on travel from there. Here in Canada, we changed the border lockdown to allow some residents of Alaska who were in the lower 48 to pass through on their way back to Alaska. But the rule was, no tarrying on the way back - get gas, get takeout food and rest in the vehicle at rest stops. Within a few days, Alaskan vehicles were seen spending days at Banff National Park. That stirred a considerable resentment against US visitors. I haven't followed closely enough to know if restrictions were re-imposed for Alaskan pass-through, but opening of the border to general travel is certain to be delayed.

[BBfanboy]

The race for a vaccine seems to have a few good candidates. A week or so back, the UK announced that trials on hamsters had shown a vaccine they were developing (at Oxford?) had proven very effective and they were moving on to human trials immediately. Because of the lag time on giving a large number of people the vaccine and then comparing with the spread of the virus in the general population months later, they estimated the earliest possible production would be April 2021. The good news was that the vaccine type is very easy to produce and could be scaled up very rapidly with producers around the world.

Meanwhile, Brazil is so desperate for a way out of its epidemic that it is going to use a new vaccine right away:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06 ... ccine.html

[RangerJoe]

Well, I guess that the hamsters are feeling safer now that there is a vaccine for them . . . [8|]

Either that, or move to the Lake of the Woods county in the very northern Minnesota:

Lake of the Woods County, the only county in the state that is yet to record a single COVID-19 case, is one of the state’s most northern, bordering Canada and the eponymous lake. Cook County — also in far northern Minnesota — recorded its first positive case of COVID-19 in early June.

The region’s biggest county, St. Louis County, has so far seen a total of 75 cases per 100,000 residents throughout the entire epidemic. Put in context, Stearns County has seen its COVID-19 case rate grow by more than 75 cases per 100,000 in a single day — four different times.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/06/2 ... -the-state

With so few cases, why should that area be locked down and its economy trashed?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He's got it backwards.

[:)]

He got it the right way. He may see over 100 people a day and his wife had cancer so she is at a greater risk.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He's got it backwards.

[:)]

He got it the right way. He may see over 100 people a day and his wife had cancer so she is at a greater risk.

I think Dan meant that the Coach should have decided to spend the time with his wife rather than with the football team. She has cancer, after all.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He's got it backwards.

[:)]

He got it the right way. He may see over 100 people a day and his wife had cancer so she is at a greater risk.

I think Dan meant that the Coach should have decided to spend the time with his wife rather than with the football team. She has cancer, after all.

Had cancer, it left her blood counts low.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The race for a vaccine seems to have a few good candidates. A week or so back, the UK announced that trials on hamsters had shown a vaccine they were developing (at Oxford?) had proven very effective and they were moving on to human trials immediately. Because of the lag time on giving a large number of people the vaccine and then comparing with the spread of the virus in the general population months later, they estimated the earliest possible production would be April 2021. The good news was that the vaccine type is very easy to produce and could be scaled up very rapidly with producers around the world.

Meanwhile, Brazil is so desperate for a way out of its epidemic that it is going to use a new vaccine right away:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06 ... ccine.html

The Oxford and Astrazeneca vaccine was in human trials about two months ago after some success in chimpanzee trials.

They're looking at going into production much sooner than next spring should the phase three trials prove successful.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]The British drugmaker has already begun large-scale, mid-stage human trials of the vaccine, which was developed by researchers at University of Oxford.

This week, AstraZeneca signed its tenth supply-and-manufacturing deal.

“Certainly in terms of how advanced they are, the stage at which they are, they are I think probably the leading candidate,” WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan told a news conference.

“So it’s possible they will have results quite early.”

Swaminathan said Moderna’s (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccine candidate was “not far behind” AstraZeneca’s, among more than 200 candidates, 15 of which have entered clinical trials.

“We do know that Moderna’s vaccine is also going to go into phase three clinical trials, probably from the middle of July, and so that vaccine candidate is not far behind,” she said.

“But I think AstraZeneca certainly has a more global scope at the moment in terms of where they are doing and planning their vaccine trials.”[/font]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The race for a vaccine seems to have a few good candidates. A week or so back, the UK announced that trials on hamsters had shown a vaccine they were developing (at Oxford?) had proven very effective and they were moving on to human trials immediately. Because of the lag time on giving a large number of people the vaccine and then comparing with the spread of the virus in the general population months later, they estimated the earliest possible production would be April 2021. The good news was that the vaccine type is very easy to produce and could be scaled up very rapidly with producers around the world.

Meanwhile, Brazil is so desperate for a way out of its epidemic that it is going to use a new vaccine right away:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06 ... ccine.html

The Oxford and Astrazeneca vaccine was in human trials about two months ago after some success in chimpanzee trials.

They're looking at going into production much sooner than next spring should the phase three trials prove successful.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]The British drugmaker has already begun large-scale, mid-stage human trials of the vaccine, which was developed by researchers at University of Oxford.

This week, AstraZeneca signed its tenth supply-and-manufacturing deal.

“Certainly in terms of how advanced they are, the stage at which they are, they are I think probably the leading candidate,” WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan told a news conference.

“So it’s possible they will have results quite early.”

Swaminathan said Moderna’s (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccine candidate was “not far behind” AstraZeneca’s, among more than 200 candidates, 15 of which have entered clinical trials.

“We do know that Moderna’s vaccine is also going to go into phase three clinical trials, probably from the middle of July, and so that vaccine candidate is not far behind,” she said.

“But I think AstraZeneca certainly has a more global scope at the moment in terms of where they are doing and planning their vaccine trials.”[/font]

Thanks - that clarifies the connection between Oxford and the drug company. It gets confusing with all the various research efforts reporting their progress and the media giving hopeful broadcast of their chances. The hamster results I was mentioning came in a BBC broadcast, but I didn't make a note at the time of the research group that achieved it.

And far from making hamsters happy that they can be immune to the virus, it makes them nervous that we now have a contamination free source of food ...[:'(]