Hairy Yankee Reports: Q-Ball (A) v Greyjoy (J)

[Dan Nichols]

I would spend 50 PPs and get a much better commander.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Dan Nichols

I would spend 50 PPs and get a much better commander.

I thought about it, he's one of the many great subordinates that Percival was blessed with, including "Piggy" Heath and that Australian General that took off just as Singapore was falling. I'm hoarding PPs for a US Infantry Division buy, and I'm almost there.

1/19 to 1/26

China.....this is the bad. It's my own private nightmare. I'm sure you have some advice, so go ahead, wade in while the water is warm...

You can see by the map I'm pretty screwed. I should have taken advice I have dispensed several times and evacuated the Central Plains, but I stayed, because I wanted to keep that supply production going. GJ took advantage of my complacency, and I'm in big doo doo.

So, I am going to lose a chunk of the Chinese Army. I am in serious risk now of losing China entirely. GJ found a weakness, and exploited it. Good on his part. And I didn't see any of this coming.

Oh well. That just means the USN will have to carry more of the load.....

[PaxMondo]

Against a competent axis opponent, I don't believe the allies cannot hold the China plains.  If the allies try, then the IJ can take china as you have now realized.  You need to get units digging in now in the rough terrain in an arc from Kweiyang to Ankang.  Sian cannot be held, but if you don't let your forces get disrupted there and get them entrenched as fort 3 in the forest behind Sian, he won't be able to dislodge you.
 
So, forces you have in the Chengtu and Chungking have got to move forward into the forest and you need to retreat everything you can as fast as you can from everywhere else.  Hex 81,41 is your key hex right now.  You need to get a couple of corps there now and add more as you can.  Then get a few more units in supporting flanking positions.  78,47; 76,46; and 75,46 are the other hexes you need to garrison as well.  At the moment, they are of less import given where his armor stack is.
 
Yes, you are giving up a lot, but if you don't you will lose Chungking.  If you can stop him, it is a huge victory.  He will have trashed units that he needs to take Burma (you know he can't replace those AFV's, IJ just doesn't have the VEH pts to do it) ... which means you will either keep the Burma road open or get it back open early in late '42.
 
Good LUCK! 

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
I should have taken advice I have dispensed several times and evacuated the Central Plains, but I stayed, because I wanted to keep that supply production going. GJ took advantage of my complacency, and I'm in big doo doo.

Q-ball,

You should have evacuated the central plains. Your complacency will result in the butchery of a large number of your troops. You're in big doo doo. [:'(]

Having said that, I agree with PaxMondo. Evacuate to just past Sian and use the supply generated from Sian to rebuild. It's what you've got. Good luck, Allied dog!

[Canoerebel]

"GreyJob", eh?
 
Well, we readers have a tradition in GreyJoy's AAR.  Whenever he does creative spelling like that, we all hoist a cold one.  In that spirit:
 

 
Yeah, your in for it now.  Losing several thousand squads in China early on isn't fatal, but bumping that up into the tens of thousands may be.  But you might be able to cobble together something in the forests and mountain hexes.  Use your bombers to slow his advances where possible.
 
If things get really bad in China, you might want to confer with crsutton.  I think he lost all or most of China in his game vs. Viberpol, so he might have some good insight.  (For that matter, I think GJ did lose all of China in his game vs. rader except maybe Chungking.)
 
Good luck!

[crsutton]

I lasted until the last quarter of 44 in China. He finally took out my last bastion, Lanchow. But I never let him surround major troop concentrations. I ran for the hills in 42 and was able to stalemate him into a slow campaign. However we started the game when it first came out so he got a big head start due to the river crossing exploit and the uber Japanese artillery stacks that we all suffered through back then. But basically, I played my finest game in China with hardly any mistakes and still lost it.

The Allies are most likely going to lose China to a good Japanese player. The longer it takes the better. You are going to go down sooner than later.

The good news is that if he takes out China, you will discover that Burma does not matter so much and you can focus on running deeper into the DEI if you want rather than worry about Burma.

One thing I recommend, either fly or march shattered corps to Ledo and North India. It takes a long time but you will not be able to rebuild units in China. There is just not enough supply. Even a dozen Chinese corps can be built back up to full monster size and be very useful. You might have a HR about moving units over the border but you should discuss this with GJ as it is not really very fair that the Chinese units can't be rebuilt. Personally, I think that this HR should automatically come to an end if the Japanese reach Kumming.

Its important for all AFBs to know. Losing China is not a game breaker. If you keep your wits about you, you will win the war regardless of what happens in China.

[aztez]

Don't bother defending the plains in China. The chances are that it will be an complete disaster if you do.

Use the terrain bonus to slow him down... and eventually things should be bogged down there.

Good idea to fly/move those Chinese units to Ledo for rebuild.

[Wirraway_Ace]

China can be held....Entice/ecourage/force GJ to destroy the encirled units and they will reappear in Chungking in time. Ship as much supply to Rangoon as you can afford. Set your supply targets in China high and it will be drawn into China over a period of a few weeks, assuming the route to China is open. For those who are conscious of the political situation that existed in late 1941, restrict yourself to using only American flagged transport for this mission. Move your two AT units to confront his Panzer Army. They help a little. Defend the river line south of Kweiyang in the X3 wooded rough. Defend the X3 terrain south of Sian for as long as you can. Try to keep him from getting the oil centers North of Sian. The mountains are a tough place to dislodge a 1000 AV of Chinese. Abandon Yenan and move everything east towards Sian.

My 2 cents

[Q-Ball]

Thanks for the advice gents...couple different viewpoints. crsutton says China is doomed against a good Japanese player, and Wirriway Ace says no. I'm not sure myself.

I think GJ is showing a very good understanding of land warfare, better than me in fact. I will post an update on China in a bit.

Let's focus on elsewhere first, where things are a bit more favorable to me

1/29/42

As January comes to a close, some patterns are emerging.

Japanese Plans: I can't tell the master plan yet, and I haven't received any real juicy intel. Here is what I can tell:

1. Japanese are making a major push in China (duh). Alot of his early PP buys are tanks, and there are a ton of planes, including Zeros. INTEL reports units prepping for Sian and Yenan. There are also alot of extra air units in China, including ZEROS.

2. After those 2 initial landings in the Aleutians, nothing. This feels like defensive perimeter moves.

3. I think he is bypassing Luzon, and letting the US Army there rot. That's what I would do, but looks like he is doing exactly that.

Beyond that, can't tell if a move is planned to Australia, Pacific, whatever. If he is going all-in on China, which is the strongest possibility, a landing in NE India would help support that. I think that is a strong possibility.

Singapore:

Still no crossing to Singapore....our troops are tanned and rested, and ready to rumble behind size-3 forts. GJ admitted in e-mail he had a stacking problem at Johore, which is why no crossing yet. But they are coming......

Probably the #1 thing I can do to help China right now is hold Sinagpore. The die is cast in terms of steps I can take, but I think I managed to get set-up pretty well, and I bet it will take GJ a good chunk of February to clear it. We'll see. The AV count is 990, and most units have decent morale now.

SRA

The blob of ships is now moving SW of Ambon; my guess is Koepang, that would make the most sense. There is another large group of ships off Singkawang, and I suspect they are preparing to invade Java. Ambon has fallen. The remaining major bases are Balikpapan, Makassar, Koepang, and Java.

Many Betties sortied from Singkawang to try to torpedo some Dutch cruisers refueling at Tjitilap, but my P-40s really did a number on them, shooting down between 4 and 12 depending on the report you read. The pilots were credited with 12 kills. No torp hits either.

I've lost alot of my Dutch fighters, so the 25 P-40s are mostly what's left in terms of fighters on Java. The AVG is already withdrawn, I ran out of planes basically.

The ground forces from Medan re-captured Sabang, which had earlier fallen to paras. The paras were gone, but we destoyed the base force there. Nice!

Aleutians:

I bombed Adak with CV aircraft; this was a "show-me" move, designed to chase any reinforcement convoys away for awhile, because I know all his CVs are around Australia right now. I also bombarded it; mostly to build night experience for cruisers. None of these attacks really did much damage.


Horn Island:

Looks like Horn Island is getting invaded tomorrow....see the screenshot. We have about 100 AV, lvl 3 forts, and enough supplies to last awhile. He would need about a Division to storm it outright, I think. The units I have there are generally pretty good quality.

[Q-Ball]

1/29/42: China

Here things are critical; another para drop, in a very bad place for me. I can block him before he gets to that critical road juncture, but I am in danger of serious rout. Really bad.

Pretty soon I may have to start asking "Can you win this game if you lose China?" I think you can, but I would rather not find out

[PaxMondo]

If he gets control of the mountain hexes to the west of XIAN, game over for China. 
 
Now, you bring up an interesting point: can the allies win without China?  I think so, but I haven't tested that.  Certainly, putting China out makes things very much better for IJ.  A lot of forces are freed up that can be used in India and in garrisoning islands.
 
However, at the end of the day, the USN only needs 9 or so successful Amphib assaults to be in Formosa or coming from the North 3 or 4 Amphib assaults to be in Hokkaido.  Once in either location, IJ is in real trouble as the 4E's can hammer the economy and win the game.
 
Effectively stopping an amphib assault is really tough (PzB is one of the few to consistently do it).  Hence, I would still bet on the allies to win even if they lose China.  Losing India is a far bigger problem for the allies as it gives a huge HI boost to the IJ.  Both China and India are similar: if the allies attempt to defend too far forward, the IJ forces can disrupt enough of the allied forces that they are never able to recover.  You need to get India defenses in place well back ... say along a Dehli line with Bombay and Karachi heavily invested.  Once you have that in place, then you can attempt to move your defense line forward.
 
Like you, I am an IJ player.  I know what I want to see from the allies.  I want forward defenses that I can smash/disrupt/break morale.  In China those are even better than dead forces as they eat supply.
 
 
Just my thoughts....  really enjoying watching this one. 

[JeffroK]

Iff China falls, would Chinese Army units in India continue to be able to rebuild??

If so, would flying out a few fragments be worth the effort?

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Iff China falls, would Chinese Army units in India continue to be able to rebuild??

If so, would flying out a few fragments be worth the effort?

To the best of my knowledge: Yes to both questions. But there are only a few unrestricted corps, 6 I think, that can be bought out.

[Q-Ball]

2/1/42

Good feedback...as a note, we have a House Rule against Restricted units crossing national borders. I have 1 Chinese Division marching to India, and will send a couple more.

It is a race for that mountainous intersection; not sure who will win, I have a head start, but he has airpower, which I don't have.

SRA Update

KB enters the Timor Sea near Darwin, and Baby KB is 7 hexes off Soerbaya, in the Java Sea. There are large convoys heading for Lautem, and also gathering at Singkawang. I think he's moving on Java. If his goal is to clear me out of the Indian Ocean by bringing KB into it he will reach that goal: No way I am hanging around.

I thought about giving battle with Baby KB (KAGA, RYUJO, ZUIHO), with my CV group near Cocos (ENTERPRISE, INDOMITABLE). But I don't have a safe port nearby, so I declined it. We'll see if I can get an advantage. To my knowledge, he doesn't know I have CVs near Cocos.

Horn Island:

No landing...it's like he pulled back the invasion again? Very strange. Maybe he's getting more bombardment support.

[Q-Ball]

2/2/42 through 2/10/42

The last few days is still slow motion disaster in China, but we're doing fine elsewhere. In fact, I think Greyjoy is going to have to show his hand pretty soon on phase 2.

China:

First, the bad.

At Nanyang, 4 Corps are being liquidated; we still have another 6-8 corps in trouble, thanks to my generalship (and Greyjoy's). I'll look on the bright side: Fewer mouths to feed!

We are going to lose China I think. We are going to try to hold out as long as we can. but this is a mess!

SRA:

SINGAPORE is now invested; the first two attacks for Japan managed to drop the forts twice, and the last attack was 1-1. Not sure how long it's going to hold, I think he'll have it cleared in another week at most.

The Entire IJN, basically, is in the Java Sea covering landings on Java. What is this about? I like to think this is a product of my fierce resistance the first couple weeks. Maybe. But the entire KB is in the Java Sea as far as I can tell, which seems like overkill.

Still, I can tell when it's time to fold, and it's time; my CVs and remaining warships are clearing out of the SRA.

It's LAST CALL for the Sub Fleet. Subs are visiting Singapore to top-off torps and fuel, before it's not available any more.

Elsewhere:

With KB in the Java Sea, we are clear to reinforce Noumea and other points. Noumea has almost 300 AV now, and plenty of engineers, and a Tank Bn. Not sure if he'll come that far, but it won't be easy.

Japanese Plans?

Why are all his carriers in the Java Sea? Either a) he is that worried about my ability to interfere, or b) he is planning a move into the Bay of Bengal. I am leaning toward the latter. I have been shipping everything I can to India, including 6 US Army air units that are landing in a couple days, to augment the RAF.

Speaking of the RAF, they gave a very good account of themselves over RANGOON, downing 40 aircraft over 2 days, without many losses. Hurris are GOOD if set properly!

Sub War Update:

I estimate I have sunk 19 Transports, 1 AV, 1 DD, and 1 DMS. USN Subs have done surprisingly well, with 1/2 that damage, though much of that is against unescorted ships.

I just lost my first sub, USS GUDGEON, to a 250kg bomb off Truk. He's starting to use ASW planes, obviously.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

We are going to lose China I think. We are going to try to hold out as long as we can. but this is a mess!

So this will be a "keeper" of an AAR. How do the allies work out having lost China? [;)]

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

We are going to lose China I think. We are going to try to hold out as long as we can. but this is a mess!

So this will be a "keeper" of an AAR. How do the allies work out having lost China? [;)]

Perhaps my purpose in life is to serve as a cautionary tale to others![:D]

At any rate, the war continues.....

2/11 to 2/13/42:

Singapore Falls:

That was quicker than I expected; we had alot of good troops dug-in behind size 3 forts, but Greyjoy made a priority out of Singapore, bringing over 7 Divisions plus other elements. Divisions present include: Imperial Guards, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 18th, 21st, 33rd, plus elements of the 56th, and a couple Guard Regts. That's a ton! When you commit that much, you'll get Singapore quickly, which he did.

So, now we shift to phase 2, as the straits are cleared, and he has 7+ divisions ready for trouble.......

China

See below.....

[ny59giants]

Brad,
I'm a week behind you playing the same scenario and my map of China looks a lot different, thankfully. [:)] I ran away from the clear terrain as fast as possible. [:D] I have a good semi-circle three hexes out from Sian that has caused my opponent, Olorin, to pause. Using para and then some of the armor from Manchuria was a move not seen before, at least by me. Great job by GreyJoy in doing that.

Ichang - this area starts out with a sizable force. Can you afford to send a corp NE to cut his supply lines to Ankang?? Looks like some guerrilla warfare tactics are in order to cut supply lines.

[Q-Ball]

We blocked the rail lines for awhile, but some armored cars cut them off.

Yes, my problem was a) I was tardy evacuating the plains, and b) Greyjoy waited, and massed ALL his tanks and paras in China to spring them at once. Plus a good chunk of the IJAAF. He must have taken about a month to pull that together.

So, tip of the hat....I will be able to form a perimeter, but I don't think it holds long term. Not enough supplies...


2/14 through 2/16:

These turns are fairly quiet.

Japanese Intentions:

The big question is: What are the Japs up to? What's the plan?

This turn, on Feb 16th, I spotted KB at Cam Ranh Bay. This is key intel (courtesty of my seaplane base at Sambas; GJ probably needs to take care of that one. Cam Ranh is within Dutch Catalina range). It also increasingly makes me think a move into the Bay of Bengal is in order. Why else would it park at Cam Ranh, without disbanding?

I also can reach Singapore via Flying Boat, so we will keep an eye on traffic in and out, and see if a move is brewing. I should see them coming through the Malacca Straits, since I still hold Medan.

Burma:

I am not fighting in Burma, pulling out the best units and leaving a garrison behind in Rangoon. I don't want to fight in the open terrain, but mostly, I don't want to get flanked by a move on Akyab or elsewhere.

India:

I do have reinforcements in NE India; 18th UK is at Chittagong, with 7th Arm Bde up there, as the Aussies. All the points on the rail lines are guarded by 2 units; no para drops up there!

I also have 3 USAAF Fighter Units, 3 USAAF B-26 units, and some 4Es coming.

I don't have much navy though; if he makes a move, it should be with KB, and if he brings KB, there is no point in sending in the RN to get killed.

[ny59giants]

Even the Japanese tanks look like King Tigers in China. [:D]