Olorin [J] vs JocMeister [A]

[Encircled]

Is there any Allied player that doesn't hate it? Any kind of Japanese offensive makes China into a boondoggle. Only a "quiet China" isn't a thorn in your side. And even that has consequences, as the IJ player can just use all those LCUs elsewhere, because it doesn't take nearly as many IJA to just make sure the Chinese are sitting tight.

Of course China is a problem for the Allies, but a clear reading of Jockes AARs so far suggests no real attempt to do anything different other than hang on.

Thats alone gives the Japanese player a lot of leeway in the theatre early on.

[Olorin]

Dec 11, 1941

Busy turn.
We 'll soon have to make important decisions after Singapore falls.

CenPac:
- Nihau captured by 1st Sasebo SNLF Coy. Useful float plane base for a few days.
- Lihue invaded by two regiments of 48 Div. Enemy PTs, subs and minefields are the only opposition. CM Yaeyama is sunk by a PT.
- CV Soryu is attacked by SS Pompano. Four torps are launched, all miss. No sign of enemy CVs.
- Wake invaded by an SNFL battalion. Shock attack fails, battalion trashed. Reinforcements must be sent from Kwajalein.
- Guam invaded by an IJA regiment.

Ground combat at Wake Island (136,98)
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 1920 troops, 19 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 63
Defending force 1476 troops, 22 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 18
Japanese adjusted assault: 2
Allied adjusted defense: 10
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 5 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
817 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 82 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
23 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
Maizuru 2nd SNLF

Defending units:
141st USN Stn Base Force
Wake (Det.) Defense Battalion

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Lihue (178,106)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 1053 troops, 10 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 33
Defending force 5619 troops, 50 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 206

Allied ground losses:
25 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
3rd/298th Infantry Battalion

Defending units:
1st Formosa Inf. Rgt /1
Sasebo 1st SNLF /3
47th Infantry Rgt /1

NoPac:
- Dutch Harbor captured by 16 Div. About 4000 enemy troops surrender.
- Base forces, supplies and fuel are on their way.
- 16 Div will remain at Dutch Harbor for now. Going further to Kodiak and Anchorage without air cover is dangerous at this point.

Western DEI/Malaya:
- 25th Army marching to Johore Bharu.
- Miri is captured. Oil installations intact.
- Victoria Point captured.
- Singkawang and Kuching invaded by one SNFL battalion each. Not sure they are enough to take them, reinforcements are on their way.
- Lots of small unidentified TFs are loittering the waters north of Borneo.

Eastern DEI/Philippines:
This is our weakest theater. We are begining to worry about Luzon.
- Perplexed about the lack of bomber sorties from Takao. Only one bomber sentai attacks Manila.
- Four enemy DDs sortie from Manila and sink a small transport TF which had just finished unloading stuff at Busuanga. 6 small xAKs and a CM are sunk.
- A reinforced regiment of the 16th Army will invade Butuan tomorrow.
- Manado invaded by two SNFL battalions carried on cruisers and destroyers. Jolo is providing CAP and naval search.
- MKB replenished at Badeldaob.
- After these events, we decide to capture Bataan and Polilo. They are safer than Busuanga. Also, some of the cruisers at Manado will return to Takao to escort supplies and engineers to Busuange.

Hong Kong:
First deliberate attack fails to reduce forts. Disablmements in our favor.

Ground combat at Hong Kong (77,61)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 20365 troops, 289 guns, 181 vehicles, Assault Value = 677
Defending force 8047 troops, 132 guns, 72 vehicles, Assault Value = 225
Japanese adjusted assault: 387
Allied adjusted defense: 389
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
976 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 32 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 15 disabled
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
702 casualties reported
Squads: 10 destroyed, 89 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 18 (1 destroyed, 17 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Assaulting units:
38th Division
67th Ind.Infantry Battalion
20th Ind Engineer Regiment
19th Ind Engineer Regiment
68th Ind.Infantry Battalion
66th Infantry Regiment
20th RGC Division
2nd Mortar Battalion
10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
5th RF Gun Battalion
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd RF Gun Battalion
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion

Defending units:
1st Middlesex Battalion
Winnipeg Grenadiers Battalion
Rifles of Canada Battalion
Kowloon Brigade
102nd RN Base Force
Hong Kong Fortress

SoPac:
- Hollandia invaded by a small base force. Will keep a watchful eye on the Torres Strait.
- 144 Rgt, Guards Mixed Bde, 90 Rgt and a few SNFL units are tasked with capturing Rabaul, Buna, PM and Horn Island. Still more than week before the offensive begins.

[Encircled]

The big advantage of you invading Hawaii is that his carriers won't be anywhere near the SWPAC theatre.

[Olorin]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

The big advantage of you invading Hawaii is that his carriers won't be anywhere near the SWPAC theatre.

I 'm not sure he will keep them in the WC or SoPac to be honest. He might send them to the DEI. If they pass through the Torres Strait I'll know it.

[ny59giants]

Bomber group leaders - I want their aggression around 55. Anything above 60 and they tend to fly to their death without fighter escort. [X(]

[MrKane]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Bomber group leaders - I want their aggression around 55. Anything above 60 and they tend to fly to their death without fighter escort. [X(]

There are no such leaders in Japanese roster. I would like to have them either.

[Olorin]

Final R&D program (almost):

2x60 A6M2-N Rufe
1x30 A6M2-N Rufe
1x8 A6M2-N Rufe
1x30 A6M3
1x15 A6M3
2x30 A6M3a
1x20 A6M5d-S Zero
1x60 A7M2 Sam
2x30 A7M2 Sam
3x60 A7M2-J Sam
1x60 B6J1 Jill
2x30 B6J1 Jill
2x60 B7A2 Grace
1x60 D4Y1 Judy
2x30 D4Y1 Judy
1x30 G4M1-L Betty
1x60 G4M2 Betty
1x10 G4M2e Betty
1x2 H6K2-L Mavis
1x30 H6K1 Emily
1x15 H6K2-L Emily
1x30 J2M2 Jack
1x15 J2M2 Jack

1x60 Ki-100-J Tony
1x5 Ki-102a Randy
1x45 Ki-102b Randy
2x30 Ki-115a Tsurugi
1x30 Ki-119
1x60 Ki-201 Karyu
1x15 Ki-21-IIb Sally
4x30 Ki-43-IIa Oscar
3x30 Ki-44-IIa Tojo
2x30 Ki-45-KAIa Nick
1x15 Ki-45-KAId Nick
1x30 Ki-46-III Dinah
1x30 Ki-48-IIa Lilly
1x30 Ki-49-Ia Hellen
1x15 Ki-49-Ia Hellen
1x15 Ki-49-II KAI Hellen
2x30 Ki-61-Ia Tony
1x30 Ki-61-Ib Tony
1x60 Ki-61-II KAI Tony
1x60 Ki-67-Ia Peggy
1x30 Ki-67-Ia Peggy
1x15 Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy
1x2 Ki-83
2x60 Ki-84a Frank
1x60 Ki-84b Frank
1x5 Ki-93-Ia
1x5 Ki-93-Ib
4x60 Ki-94-II
1x15 Ki-95
1x30 N1K1-J George
1x15 N1K1-J George
1x2 P1Y2-S Frances
1x2 Toka

Total Cost: 2.546.000 tons of supplies.

[Olorin]

Any comments on the above are welcome. Where do you think I overspent?

[castor troy]

Everywhere you have increased R&D over 30 as 30pts are the max one gets out of a single factory for R&D and only that if the factory is fully repaired. A 30pt factory probably gives you the max R&D 6-8 months earlier than a 60pt factory if talking about an aircraft coming online in 44/45 (without R&D). Those 60pt factories will be repaired 1-3 months earlier than historic date of an ac going online so that won't be a real step forward IMO. At least if you aren't really lucky with the dice.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: castor troy

Everywhere you have increased R&D over 30 as 30pts are the max one gets out of a single factory for R&D and only that if the factory is fully repaired. A 30pt factory probably gives you the max R&D 6-8 months earlier than a 60pt factory if talking about an aircraft coming online in 44/45 (without R&D). Those 60pt factories will be repaired 1-3 months earlier than historic date of an ac going online so that won't be a real step forward IMO. At least if you aren't really lucky with the dice.

+1 Those 60 point late war plane factories is a mistake.

[Encircled]

+2!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Olorin

Any comments on the above are welcome. Where do you think I overspent?

Why the size 60 Rufe factories? Why the size 15 Peggy-T factory? Both seem sub-optimal. Are you really going to use that many Rufes, or is it to get to the A6M5?

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: castor troy

Everywhere you have increased R&D over 30 as 30pts are the max one gets out of a single factory for R&D and only that if the factory is fully repaired. A 30pt factory probably gives you the max R&D 6-8 months earlier than a 60pt factory if talking about an aircraft coming online in 44/45 (without R&D). Those 60pt factories will be repaired 1-3 months earlier than historic date of an ac going online so that won't be a real step forward IMO. At least if you aren't really lucky with the dice.

+1 Those 60 point late war plane factories is a mistake.

Not necessarily. If he plans for those to turn into production factories for the first model, then it's fine. You start with a Frank-a size 55 R&D factory, for example. I let this turn to production while I have my others keep on the R&D. Keep in mind that the factories will repair at the same rate relative to their maximum size. Over many trials, a 60-point factory will repair to 60 in the same amount of time that a 30-point factory will repair to 30. So as long as the expansion is all done at the beginning... that being said, I definitely would not do this many 60-pointers (such as those in the A7M line). That's way too much supply consumption in the beginning. You would be running really low in mid-42 and if you end up having to repair a lot of Oil centers, then you're in trouble.

Bump that A6M5d-S up to 30 also.

Why bother with the G4M2? The G3M3 and P1Y1/P1Y2 are better. Only reason to use a Betty model that isn't the G4M1 is for the Okhas.

Honestly, I would not R&D so many 1945 models right now, such as the Tsurugi, Toka, and so much on the A7M. The factories just won't repair significant levels until sometime in 1943 anyway. You may as well focus the R&D more on the earlier models and switch factories to later models as the war progresses. This will cost you more supply, but you can make up for it by being more judicious in your other R&D and air production. Don't overproduce anything that won't become a kamikaze. I have a few hundred A6M2 in my pools, for example, that I'll never use. That's about 1000 HI that I won't get back! [:'(]

[Olorin]

Guys,

Regarding the x60 factories, my understanding is that:
- all factories will be repaired and go into production eventually, there is no extra supply cost.
- once repaired, they give 2% R&D points instead of the 1% of the x30 factories. This is my experience in my previous game with this mod.
- the rate of repairs is the same for all factories.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Olorin

Any comments on the above are welcome. Where do you think I overspent?

Why the size 60 Rufe factories? Why the size 15 Peggy-T factory? Both seem sub-optimal. Are you really going to use that many Rufes, or is it to get to the A6M5?

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: castor troy

Everywhere you have increased R&D over 30 as 30pts are the max one gets out of a single factory for R&D and only that if the factory is fully repaired. A 30pt factory probably gives you the max R&D 6-8 months earlier than a 60pt factory if talking about an aircraft coming online in 44/45 (without R&D). Those 60pt factories will be repaired 1-3 months earlier than historic date of an ac going online so that won't be a real step forward IMO. At least if you aren't really lucky with the dice.

+1 Those 60 point late war plane factories is a mistake.

Not necessarily. If he plans for those to turn into production factories for the first model, then it's fine. You start with a Frank-a size 55 R&D factory, for example. I let this turn to production while I have my others keep on the R&D. Keep in mind that the factories will repair at the same rate relative to their maximum size. Over many trials, a 60-point factory will repair to 60 in the same amount of time that a 30-point factory will repair to 30. So as long as the expansion is all done at the beginning... that being said, I definitely would not do this many 60-pointers (such as those in the A7M line). That's way too much supply consumption in the beginning. You would be running really low in mid-42 and if you end up having to repair a lot of Oil centers, then you're in trouble.

Bump that A6M5d-S up to 30 also.

Why bother with the G4M2? The G3M3 and P1Y1/P1Y2 are better. Only reason to use a Betty model that isn't the G4M1 is for the Okhas.

Honestly, I would not R&D so many 1945 models right now, such as the Tsurugi, Toka, and so much on the A7M. The factories just won't repair significant levels until sometime in 1943 anyway. You may as well focus the R&D more on the earlier models and switch factories to later models as the war progresses. This will cost you more supply, but you can make up for it by being more judicious in your other R&D and air production. Don't overproduce anything that won't become a kamikaze. I have a few hundred A6M2 in my pools, for example, that I'll never use. That's about 1000 HI that I won't get back! [:'(]

The Rufe factories will convert to the A6M5.
You may be right about 1942 supply shortage, it will probably happen and I will need to shut off a few 1945 factories.
As for why the G4M2... I thought with PDU off there isn't a single air group that uses the frances. It turns out there are a few. I have a couple of unused R&D slots available which can be converted.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Olorin

Guys,

Regarding the x60 factories, my understanding is that:
- all factories will be repaired and go into production eventually, there is no extra supply cost.
- once repaired, they give 2% R&D points instead of the 1% of the x30 factories. This is my experience in my previous game with this mod.
- the rate of repairs is the same for all factories.

The real difficulty is that it just takes longer to repair and thus you're not getting R n D during that time. 30 is optimum. With the Rufe it should be fine as you want to upgrade it to A6M line anyway so you're trying to get as many as possible to repair quickly.

The rate is not equal for RnD factories. It's variable, and finicky! All dice rolls.

[Encircled]

As my game is PDU-off as well, I've just researched into the planes I get the most use of.

Lots of research into the Zero and Oscar range for example.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


Keep in mind that the factories will repair at the same rate relative to their maximum size. Over many trials, a 60-point factory will repair to 60 in the same amount of time that a 30-point factory will repair to 30.


That's about 1000 HI that I won't get back! [:'(]

Not my personal experience that they repair in the same amount of time, but there is a die roll involved so perhaps I am just unlucky.

You can use those Zeroes as trainers somewhere surely. Barring that they make great long range escorts for strikes in unexpected places during the late game. 1000 hvy industry points surely won't be a factor...

[Olorin]

Dec 12, 1941

Eastern Operation:
- Lahaina invaded by 65th Bde, Hiei and Kirishima detach from KB to cover landing. No air attacks from PH.
- Deliberate attack at Lihue reduced forts to 0, but didn't capture the base.

Ground combat at Lihue (178,106)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 6247 troops, 50 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 339
Defending force 1026 troops, 10 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 30
Japanese adjusted assault: 82
Allied adjusted defense: 46
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), leaders(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
46 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
127 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
Tanaka
Sasebo 1st SNLF
1st Formosa Inf. Regiment
47th Infantry Regiment
Kanno
1st Sasebo SNLF Coy
24th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
3rd/298th Infantry Battalion

- Four Allied DDs sortie to Lihue and Nihau without causing any disturbance to the landings.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lihue at 178,106, Range 9,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Nagara, Shell hits 1
DD Yukikaze
DD Tokitsukaze
DD Yamakaze
DD Kawakaze
DD Umikaze, Shell hits 1
DD Suzukaze, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
DD Litchfield
DD Ward, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Chew, Shell hits 2, on fire

- Minefield at Nihau reduced. No casualties to mines yet.
- Wake bombarded by 2 CLs & 4 DDs.
- Guam falls.


Philippines/Eastern DEI:
- 41 Zeros sweep Manila, no opposition again. Army bombers scarcely damage Manila and Clark Field.

Morning Air attack on Manila , at 79,77
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 33 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 9
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 28

Allied aircraft
no flights

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 5 damaged
P-35A: 5 damaged
P-35A: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 10

- Four allied DDs sink another 4 small xAKLs transporting supplies to Busuanga, before meeting their doom.

Day Time Surface Combat, near Puerto Princesa at 74,85, Range 20,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Myoko, Shell hits 1
DD Shinonome
DD Shirakumo, Shell hits 1
DD Sazanami
DD Ushio

Allied Ships
DD John D. Ford, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
DD Peary, Shell hits 3
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Pope, Shell hits 17, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

- Deliberate attack at Manado is inconclusive. Will try again tomorrow.

Ground combat at Manado (75,99)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 3627 troops, 24 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 121
Defending force 1516 troops, 18 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 42
Japanese adjusted assault: 18
Allied adjusted defense: 19
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: op mode(-), leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
51 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
62 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
15th Naval Guard Unit
16th Naval Guard Unit

Defending units:
Manado Garrison Battalion
1/12th Avn Sup Afd

Malaya/Western DEI:
- Deliberate attacks at Singkawang and Kuching reduces forts to o.
- A Dutch sub sinks a DD.

[ny59giants]

Manado - Your troops not in "Combat Mode?" I like to land a small LCU at dot base next door to prevent retreat.

Luzon - there are five bases with some level of Aviation Support for Allies to use - Iba, Clark, Bataan, Manila, and (one next to Manila, but cannot remember name while at work). Recon them all. [;)]

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Olorin

You may be right about 1942 supply shortage, it will probably happen and I will need to shut off a few 1945 factories.

Just thought I'd offer my viewpoint as a counter to some of the comments regarding your air R&D. Like you, I'm kind of a pay early and often for expansion and then rely on making up the supply later as expansion costs level out. I should add that I have NO experience of the late game, so my opinions have no hard evidence to back them up. I have no idea whether my economy would have collapsed in 44/45. [:D]

1. The biggest supply hit you will take early is the 100 supply per point of expansion setting up all your factories.

2. Your R&D factories will not repair everyday (only engine factories will repair daily), so the supply cost is spread out over months/years.

3. You will capture some supply from the Allies, which will facilitate your expansion supply costs.

4. In my games, I too spent over 2 million in R&D and was still able to pool 5-11k of supply/day.

5. You can turn off repairs if you find yourself draining too much supply at times.

Now a caveat to all this is that I have never played for AV. I've always played a conservative Japan by essentially capturing the historic perimeter and then playing for the mid/late game. Because I've not had much combat in 1942 and early 1943, I've been able to divert that supply into R&D. I'm also a believer in expanding factories earlier than later. I'd rather expand in 1942 when I can, rather than risk not being able to expand in 1943 and onwards due to military commitments. The fact you are attempting AV and have such an extensive supply expenditure for R&D could mean you run into supply deficits, but you'll be a better judge of what is happening to your economy during this period than any of us. I get the impression you understand what you are doing and why, we'll all just have to see how things develop for you moving forward. I'm optimistic you'll be fine. [8D]

P.S. I do agree with the others on the size 60 factories. I think size 30 is optimal, 31 is you want to cover all the bases. It's easy enough to expand them to size 60, but after they reach size 30 and building up each point individually, or better yet having multiple factories rather than one size 60.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Olorin

Guys,

Regarding the x60 factories, my understanding is that:
- all factories will be repaired and go into production eventually, there is no extra supply cost.
- once repaired, they give 2% R&D points instead of the 1% of the x30 factories. This is my experience in my previous game with this mod.
- the rate of repairs is the same for all factories.

The real difficulty is that it just takes longer to repair and thus you're not getting R n D during that time. 30 is optimum. With the Rufe it should be fine as you want to upgrade it to A6M line anyway so you're trying to get as many as possible to repair quickly.

The rate is not equal for RnD factories. It's variable, and finicky! All dice rolls.

Nope, over the long run it is equal, although random. The equation for R&D repairs is given somewhere (in the manual?) and there is a linear relationship between total factory size and chance of repair. Takes the same amount of time to repair a size 60 as a size 30, if you start them far enough in advance. You can see this in-game with the size 55 Frank factory that you start with. In my game, that one finished just after 2 size 30 factories that I had started, and before the other 3 reached 30. I had them set up from week 1.

Obviously they can only repair 1 point per day at maximum, so if you start them closer to the current arrival date of the airframe such that you're getting a point of repair more often than every 2 days, then the larger factories will of course take longer in that case.

I had read in older posts about receiving 2% from size 60, but I thought maybe that wasn't correct. If they're going to production and you want at least 60 production from the factory though, in the long run the supply isn't wasted.