Saper (Axis) vs Tyrone (Soviet). (no Saper)

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Are you able to show OOB numbers? Feels like so far you've met your initial objective of avoiding any disastrous pockets. If you are still on this turn I'd be looking to get those two 10CV stacks around Moscow out of harms way - I think the city is doomed in the short term and you could really do with those stronger units come blizzard.

[tyronec]

Losses after soviet bombing, T14.
It is a risk but will try and hold on for one more turn around Moscow. Am guessing his Panzers north of the city will be low on fuel.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

You have survived very well Tyronec. Excellent job and excellent job on the "spider" sense around Pskov on the coming Panzers. IMO Sapper needed more surrendered units to my liking. Of course, he has his agenda

[Callistrid]

It's not done yet. Sapper is the second best german player ever (Mktours holds the fist pole), and the last 3 turn is crucial. Moscow is in a great danger, but the most threatened position is Leningrad. Sappers breakthrow north from Moscow threaten the crutial way to Leningrad.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

It's not done yet. Sapper is the second best german player ever (Mktours holds the fist pole), and the last 3 turn is crucial. Moscow is in a great danger, but the most threatened position is Leningrad. Sappers breakthrow north from Moscow threaten the crutial way to Leningrad.

I concur with you 100% on Mktours being first pole. I get shivers down my spine thinking of playing a game against Mktours.

Will see what the next few turns have for Tyronec, but yes, Moscow will more than likely fall.

[tyronec]

It's not done yet. Sapper is the second best german player ever (Mktours holds the fist pole), and the last 3 turn is crucial. Moscow is in a great danger, but the most threatened position is Leningrad. Sappers breakthrow north from Moscow threaten the crutial way to Leningrad.

Would not agree that there is danger to Leningrad from the breakout north of Moscow, I don't think the panzers can get enough fuel to cut north far enough in the time available.
If he had wanted to push for Leningrad he would have been better to bring in all of PG1 at Pskov.
By no means is the '41 blitzkrieg done though, things are on a knife edge and could lose a lot of divisions before the blizzard if I have misjudged.
T14 is with Saper and am waiting in trepidation to see what mayhem he has got up to...

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: tyronec

It's not done yet. Sapper is the second best german player ever (Mktours holds the fist pole), and the last 3 turn is crucial. Moscow is in a great danger, but the most threatened position is Leningrad. Sappers breakthrow north from Moscow threaten the crutial way to Leningrad.

Would not agree that there is danger to Leningrad from the breakout north of Moscow, I don't think the panzers can get enough fuel to cut north far enough in the time available.
If he had wanted to push for Leningrad he would have been better to bring in all of PG1 at Pskov.
By no means is the '41 blitzkrieg done though, things are on a knife edge and could lose a lot of divisions before the blizzard if I have misjudged.
T14 is with Saper and am waiting in trepidation to see what mayhem he has got up to...

I feel your trepidation Tyronec. I hate playing the Soviets in 41

[tyronec]

T14.
Zhukov does the job and clears the Moskva.
Around Rostov attack in the north with the SWest front, towards Stalino and out of the Crimea.

[tyronec]

T15 after recon.
Leningrad. No attack from Pskov, the panzer corps is still there.
Moscow. Major breakthrough pocketing Moscow from both sides, 12 divisions caught. Can count 23 armoured units around Moscow and they had little difficulty making a secure pocket. Bad misjudgement on my part.
Rostov. My pincer from the north has been pushed back and 5 cavalry divisions pocketed, they are lost. In the south my cavalry swarm has been cut off. In front of Stalino Axis have pulled back. Can count about 23 German infantry divisions and 3 motorised which is more than I had thought.

Air war. 36 (bombers) for 43 (fighters), at least no bases overrun.
Germans have pulled the Luftwaffe back from AGC, there are some below Pskov and some around D'town.

Thoughts for the turn.
My worst turn by far, 18 divisions lost (1 more south of Moscow).

Leningrad. Am not sure whether to stand or run. Think I could cope with what's there but there is a panzer corps missing.
Moscow. Pull back and reform the lines. Will strengthen up the route towards Leningrad.
Rostov. I cannot get through to the 5 cav. Divisions from NWest front.
Will attack towards Stalino and see what the garrison is.
The group of 7 units south of Stalino appears to be inviting me to cut them off, not sure what that is about or maybe my recon has missed something.
There is no problem getting my cavalry on the Azov coast back in supply, will advance and attack any Romanian units I can.
Can expect more German reinforcements to be arriving from the West and not at all sure how far to come out of the Crimea.

[timmyab]

The group of 7 units south of Stalino appears to be inviting me to cut them off,

This seems most likely to me. There might be a pz corp lurking to the North somewhere. If an evacuation through the Crimea and the Azov ports is possible I think I'd go for it.
Gutsy attempt by you in the South. It just goes to show though that large scale Soviet offensives are doomed in Summer 1941.

You should be able to hold the Luga line in 41 which would make for an interesting 1942.

[tyronec]

Well I did cut them off so am now waiting to pay for my impudence.
One of them had 'orange' fuel so they will have no trouble breaking out, I think any reinforcing panzers will be over 20 MPs away but it was probably a mistake to take the bait even though I don't know where the hook is.

[tyronec]

T15.
Withdraw in the North and Centre, no attacks.
Rostov. Pocket the seven units and another motorised corps, none will hold and next turn there are a stack of German infantry divisions coming down plus anything getting railed in. They will be short of supply.
Costly in tanks attacking Slovak infantry !

[tyronec]

T16 after recon.
All the pockets are eliminated, cost me around 100k.
Leningrad. Breakthrough north of Pskov and 2 divisions pocketed. However nothing is trapped and can fall back to the next river line. The three missing Panzers have appeared, now 7 armoured units attacking.
Central area. Only a couple of attacks. Some armoured units heading for the gap between Ryazan and Lipetsk. There are just 11 armoured units left of the 23 that were here last turn.
South. A lot of my cavalry has been pushed back and some routed. Both pockets opened but nothing cut off this turn. One of my tank divisions got depleted after beating up the Slovaks twice.
Looks like the 4 divisions from Odessa are moving along the coast.

Air war. 20 for 27. About 100 German fighters up north, the rest in the south where the there has been some ground bombing.

Thoughts for the turn.
Where is the mud !!! Should have had at least some mud by now…

Leningrad. Will reform my lines and move some more units over to cover the direct attack. He can't take Leningrad in the snow turns but don't want to get too much pocketed. Axis rail still stops 3 hexes short of Pskov and no sign of any conversion around.

Centre. I don't think it makes sense for him to advance through the gap. More likely he is considering an attack on Litebsk/Voronezh, which are garrisoned by shell units. Will shift a couple of armies that way.

South. The big move is next turn, then anything pocketed by either side could have three turns of mud to sit out. Will be conservative this turn, do a few safe attacks and isolate those 7 units again but try not to expose myself too much.
Need to make sure the entrance to the Crimea is secure.

The big question is where are the 12 missing armoured units from the centre going, perhaps Leningrad or Stalino ?

[M60A3TTS]

Random weather seems to have virtually no impact in 1941 due to the lateness of mud in this version.

You've done as well as anyone could have expected under the circumstances. Losing all that cavalry in the south was certainly a bad turn for you, but Rostov now should be safe enough.

[chaos45]

think your off on predicting mud turns? isnt it the middle of october for absolute no chance of anything but mud?

Also think you got to aggressive to early...your going to miss those cav divisions come winter IMO, if you save anything as the soviets in 1941 its cav and mountain divisions.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

Random weather seems to have virtually no impact in 1941 due to the lateness of mud in this version.

You've done as well as anyone could have expected under the circumstances. Losing all that cavalry in the south was certainly a bad turn for you, but Rostov now should be safe enough.

I have mentioned this a couple of times about random weather not being random at all in the AAR's that I have been in. I have seen it ALL the time in those games. I am done beating that dead "non-random" horse. Now, where is that next "non-random" horse to beat on? It should be here by now!!!!

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

think your off on predicting mud turns? isnt it the middle of october for absolute no chance of anything but mud?

Also think you got to aggressive to early...your going to miss those cav divisions come winter IMO, if you save anything as the soviets in 1941 its cav and mountain divisions.

The #1 thing to save as Soviets imo is the high morale infantry. But again that is just me.

[chaos45]

well the high morale stuff as well I agree...thats kinda a given and as the soviet player you should know where your handful of actual good divisions are for most of 1941 for sure. The reason I advocate for the cav in 1941...is you can make them corps once blizzard hits and they have decent movement in blizzard plus decent CV if they are fully trained.

[tyronec]

think your off on predicting mud turns? isnt it the middle of october for absolute no chance of anything but mud?

Also think you got to aggressive to early...your going to miss those cav divisions come winter IMO, if you save anything as the soviets in 1941 its cav and mountain divisions.

As I read it there is a 1/11 chance at least of getting mud throughout the summer in each zone (so 51 die rolls). Chance of no mud is around half a percent.
I did misjudge losing the cavalry, but no risk -> no wins and no morale gain.

Just looking at the move some more I don't think he will make a big push for Leningrad in the snow. Have put a fair effort into defending it so if he now proceeds to crush my screen am going to look pretty dumb. Interesting, if I had been in his position around T10 would have diverted all available PG1 to Leningrad then.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: tyronec

As I read it there is a 1/11 chance at least of getting mud throughout the summer in each zone (so 51 die rolls). Chance of no mud is around half a percent.
I did misjudge losing the cavalry, but no risk -> no wins and no morale gain.

Just looking at the move some more I don't think he will make a big push for Leningrad in the snow. Have put a fair effort into defending it so if he now proceeds to crush my screen am going to look pretty dumb. Interesting, if I had been in his position around T10 would have diverted all available PG1 to Leningrad then.

I've got the probabilities different [&:]

Going off the weather table morvael put up tm.asp?m=4354016

The two June turns will always be clear

That leaves 14 turns until the weather table changes significantly (there is a slight increase in the chance of mud in the South in Sept which I'm going to ignore for the sake of simplicity)

For each weather zone in these turns there is a 95% chance of clear weather each turn. So for each weather zone in isolation the probability of getting clear all the way through is

.95x.95x.95x.95x.95x.95x.95x.95x.95x.95x.95x.95x.95x.95 = 0.49, 49% or pretty much 1:1 expressed in odds

So the probability of all 4 zones being clear all the way through to the 'mud season' in October is

.49x.49x.49x.49 = 0.06, 6% or 15.5:1 in odds

Going off HLYA's experiences in the thread linked above, whether (weather?!?) the table is working as advertised is another matter.