OT: Corona virus

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Just stopped by the local shoe store. the inventory was low. I Asked "Not much to choose from, Corona Virus?"<Chuckle>. "Yes" she replied, "the manager said she is scared to order anything that comes from China."

I hear tales of pharmaceuticals, diabetic testing strips, custom clothing lines and other textiles (e.g., shoes) being in short supply due to the Chinese industrial slowdown from quarantine. Woe unto the operational officers that haven't taken the last two years' 'opportunity' to diversify their supply chain. For a time, the world's 'factory floor' is closed for business.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: cantona2

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Forum is a repository of smart, well-reasoned folks, and some of them might offer informed opinions about the Corona virus outbreak and how it might play out. Chickenboy comes to mind, given his background, and there may be others. I hope you'll chime in, as your thoughts should be very interested to those of us who are laymen and have no clue what's going on.

To be perfectly honest the media is not helping one bit. News of people getting ill in a certain region are largely exaggerated, for example headline Coronavirus spreads to Southern Italy - one reported case!!! Look at the screenshot below from a local paper. Look at the thicknesses of the fonts and the colours for each piece of information!

I do not understand the mass hysteria on evidence when one reads a little deeper into the matter. I gave my maths group in school the task to work out the % of the world's population that has died (well published figures that is) using an estimated figure of 8 billion. I think it worked out at 0.0000000009% death rate.

Social media is not helping either with this being constantly thrust in peoples faces and lives every second of the day.

I mostly agree. Fear-mongering and jostling for the limelight are running amok.

In the hysteria attached to 'bird flu' (remember that?) from about 2004-2007, I spent part of my lectures with veterinary students reviewing comparative risks of humans dying from H5N1 avian influenza to other commonplace and not so commonplace diseases. You are and were significantly more likely to die from bubonic plague (BLACK DEATH-remember that?) globally than you were from bird flu.

I've taken the opportunity to start nibbling at some stock positions that I've wanted to own, but balked at the price tag. Panickers gonna panic, so I'll take the good stuff on discount. Thanks guys!

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus solidifies US-China decoupling
https://asiatimes.com/2020/02/coronavir ... ecoupling/

"In November 2019, Henry Kissinger was in Beijing for the Bloomberg Next Economy Forum, warning that the US and China are in the “foothills of a Cold War”, saying that conflict could be worse than World War I if left to run unconstrained."


"One month later in December, there was an outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan, which resulted in worldwide panic and the de facto quarantine of the Chinese economy via city lockdowns, business shutdowns, and travel bans from the international community."

"Given Kissinger is known to have prescient observations, at this critical juncture it appears his warnings in regard to a new Cold War seem apt. Paul Haenle, a former Asia adviser to presidents Bush and Obama, said: “If you talk to folks in the Pentagon, they say they’re no longer debating whether or not China is an enemy. They’re planning for war… and if you talk about cooperation, you’re [seen as] naïve.”'


"Yale historian Odd Arne Westad agrees. He noted: “The pre-1914 parallel is, of course, not just the growth in German power. What we, I think, need to focus on, is what actually led to war. What led to war was the German fear of being in a position where their power would not strengthen in the future, where they were, as they put it in the summer of 1914, at the maximum moment.”"

[Jorge_Stanbury]

the human race is way past the times when a virus could be a cause of serious concerns; last big one was the spanish flu of 1918, and that happened before antibiotics. Sure a few thousands might die, no big deal when you consider sustained population growth explosion in the last decades

[BBfanboy]

I am not one to panic about threats that I know are only affecting a very tiny portion of the population, and those people only in a given hot spot, but .....

Last night I was returning from holiday in Montego Bay and had to connect to another flight at Pearson Airport in Toronto. Connection time was about 2 and a half hours but got extended by the winter storm delaying the incoming aircraft we would take to Winnipeg. In the departure lounge were several families, two of which had children coughing harshly and one of the parents also coughing occasionally. Oh-oh ...

It happened that the latest Covid-19 case in Ontario (the sixth) was a woman who had been visiting family in Iran. That news came out the day before my trip.
The families in the lounge had the appearance of being from Iran or perhaps India - judging by features, manner of dress and, yes, skin shade. They sometimes spoke in a foreign language to their kids.

I try hard not to make assumptions about people but that damn virus sure had me wondering if these people could have come in contact with it somewhere! As if to drive the point home, a flight from Hong Kong arrived at the adjoining gate and masked airport security staff led masked oriental people in a group past the duty free shops toward airport admin areas. Not confidence building for me, but probably a reasonable precaution.

In the end I got on the plane home with the families and their coughing children and only made a point of washing my hands every chance I got. But I still have to keep the threat in mind for a couple of weeks and self monitor ...[:(]

[btd64]

I hear you BB. My wife has students from around the world and they have been traveling too....GP

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

ORIGINAL: Ian R

C to F - double it and add about 28.

So 24C about = 76F.

This only works in the span of about 10C to about 30C, outside those parameters 28 does not work.

F = (C x 9/5) +32.

-40 F = -40 C!

I have seen colder than that outside.

[DOCUP]

Thanks Chickenboy. My background: I am a former army medic, now I am a Pediatric ICU nurse, I am also trained in ER, Adult ICU and Neonatal ICU. I work at a medium size tertiary hospital. During the Ebola fear a few years back, my hospital was the first one to build PICU rooms in my state capable of taking a patient under the age of 17 with Ebola.

Thanks guys for the extra information. I was able to get some from my hospital Infection control Doc's today, pretty much said the same thing that has been posted on here.

A quick breakdown for you all.

Ages 30-79 has been the most affected. Less than 3% has been under the age of 19 or over 80 (now those over 80 have been hit hard with it). Men are more apt to get it than women. People who or have these issues are at a higher risk or mortality smokers, COPD, cardiac disease, diabetes and any type of immune suppression issues.

My take on this: I am more worried about the Flu than I am about COVID-19. If you are not in a confined area, IE airplane, cruise ship, dorm, barracks, you should be ok. Wash your hands (most people wash them wrong, take notice do you wash your thumbs and between your fingers, get up under your nails?)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

[Ian R]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn'


"Yale historian Odd Arne Westad agrees. He noted: “The pre-1914 parallel is, of course, not just the growth in German power. What we, I think, need to focus on, is what actually led to war. What led to war was the German fear of being in a position where their power would not strengthen in the future, where they were, as they put it in the summer of 1914, at the maximum moment.”"

According to Paul Kennedy, Imperial (2nd Reich) Germany's war making potential, or rather its % share of the global potential of the great powers, peaked in 1913.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn'


"Yale historian Odd Arne Westad agrees. He noted: “The pre-1914 parallel is, of course, not just the growth in German power. What we, I think, need to focus on, is what actually led to war. What led to war was the German fear of being in a position where their power would not strengthen in the future, where they were, as they put it in the summer of 1914, at the maximum moment.”"

According to Paul Kennedy, Imperial (2nd Reich) Germany's war making potential, or rather its % share of the global potential of the great powers, peaked in 1913.

The other side of the coin is that Britain's empire was at its peak, but didn't know it yet. Because the British nobility/lords felt superior and more powerful than the rest of the world, they felt they had the right to constrain Germany and any other competitor. Conflict with the US could have been in the cards but the US was more into economic empire than territorial empire. Point is, the Germans felt aggrieved by the British cutting them out of their own empire based economy and they were spoiling for a fight. The whole naval race thing was about Germany trying to break out of the strait jacket and Britain reinforcing it.

France had already lost most of its empire and bet on Britain being able to help it keep Germany from continental ambitions.
The sad thing is that if these empires had peacefully negotiated who got what and then traded with each other, they all would have been better off economically. Trade, not war, is the normal state of human relations.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: cantona2

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Forum is a repository of smart, well-reasoned folks, and some of them might offer informed opinions about the Corona virus outbreak and how it might play out. Chickenboy comes to mind, given his background, and there may be others. I hope you'll chime in, as your thoughts should be very interested to those of us who are laymen and have no clue what's going on.

To be perfectly honest the media is not helping one bit. News of people getting ill in a certain region are largely exaggerated, for example headline Coronavirus spreads to Southern Italy - one reported case!!! Look at the screenshot below from a local paper. Look at the thicknesses of the fonts and the colours for each piece of information!

I do not understand the mass hysteria on evidence when one reads a little deeper into the matter. I gave my maths group in school the task to work out the % of the world's population that has died (well published figures that is) using an estimated figure of 8 billion. I think it worked out at 0.0000000009% death rate.

Social media is not helping either with this being constantly thrust in peoples faces and lives every second of the day.

I mostly agree. Fear-mongering and jostling for the limelight are running amok.

In the hysteria attached to 'bird flu' (remember that?) from about 2004-2007, I spent part of my lectures with veterinary students reviewing comparative risks of humans dying from H5N1 avian influenza to other commonplace and not so commonplace diseases. You are and were significantly more likely to die from bubonic plague (BLACK DEATH-remember that?) globally than you were from bird flu.

As in the linked article from the LA Times, the scary part of this one is that it isn't as much a killer as a replicator. Mortality rates are not incredibly high per case, but it has the potential to proliferate and infect larger segments of the population, as well as hindering economic activity around the globe as industries close down to prevent spread of the disease.

Economic downturns are also dangerous, and this disease is causing a major market correction from recent gains, as much in some recent trading as during the 2008-09 financial crisis if these numbers hold or worsen. Pandemics, if this is one, are very expensive.

If this does prove to be a disease without season, if it can exist and transfer just as easily in warm climates/seasons, it could be a continuing threat, which would make it's potential danger much greater. No one, really, is afraid to catch a common cold. What if the common cold suddenly had a 2% mortality rate? And everybody caught it once or twice a year? To me that is the danger of a disease that seems more able to survive outside a host for longer periods of time, in most atmospheric conditions, and which may have a long gestation period, combined with very light symptoms in some, giving lots of opportunity in which to transfer to new hosts.

I've also read it has proven to reappear in several cases after a patient has seemed to recover and been released from treatment. This seems similar to Dan's example of the 1918 flu. That flu also had a fairly low mortality rate of 2.5% as I understand it. But 20+ million died.

[Ian R]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Ian R

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn'


"Yale historian Odd Arne Westad agrees. He noted: “The pre-1914 parallel is, of course, not just the growth in German power. What we, I think, need to focus on, is what actually led to war. What led to war was the German fear of being in a position where their power would not strengthen in the future, where they were, as they put it in the summer of 1914, at the maximum moment.”"

According to Paul Kennedy, Imperial (2nd Reich) Germany's war making potential, or rather its % share of the global potential of the great powers, peaked in 1913.

The other side of the coin is that Britain's empire was at its peak, but didn't know it yet. Because the British nobility/lords felt superior and more powerful than the rest of the world, they felt they had the right to constrain Germany and any other competitor. Conflict with the US could have been in the cards but the US was more into economic empire than territorial empire. Point is, the Germans felt aggrieved by the British cutting them out of their own empire based economy and they were spoiling for a fight. The whole naval race thing was about Germany trying to break out of the strait jacket and Britain reinforcing it.

France had already lost most of its empire and bet on Britain being able to help it keep Germany from continental ambitions.
The sad thing is that if these empires had peacefully negotiated who got what and then traded with each other, they all would have been better off economically. Trade, not war, is the normal state of human relations.

Well, the Brits accelerated their demise by getting involved in WW1, and expending much blood and treasure on it. War truly is a [moderator edit] thing.

The war that I find oddest of all, is the War of 1812. On the up side, it did not take long for the protagonists to realise that it was a very bad idea in terms of trade and economics, and sort out a suitable resolution.

[MakeeLearn]

A dog in Hong Kong has tested ‘weak positive’ for coronavirus
https://fortune.com/2020/02/27/coronavi ... hong-kong/

The pet dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong has been found to have a “low level” of the virus, the Hong Kong government said early Friday.

The dog tested “weak positive” for the coronavirus, the city’s agricultural and fisheries department said in a statement, without giving further details. Officials will carry out further tests to confirm whether the dog has really been infected with the disease, or if it was a result of environmental contamination of its mouth and nose.

[Ian R]

The dog is being quarantined at an animal facility, the Hong Kong government said. The department strongly advised that pets of confirmed virus patients also be put under quarantine.

So, we are talking about your actual pets, not chow dogs?

[btd64]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

A dog in Hong Kong has tested ‘weak positive’ for coronavirus
https://fortune.com/2020/02/27/coronavi ... hong-kong/

The pet dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong has been found to have a “low level” of the virus, the Hong Kong government said early Friday.

The dog tested “weak positive” for the coronavirus, the city’s agricultural and fisheries department said in a statement, without giving further details. Officials will carry out further tests to confirm whether the dog has really been infected with the disease, or if it was a result of environmental contamination of its mouth and nose.

Just read that story on my news feed....GP

[Macclan5]

The interest in historical references is not surprising around here ; but interesting and informative.

Jorge posted - and I fully agree - that humanity is in a much better place scientifically / medically than ever before. There will be a cost but that cost must be compared to a population of 6 billion not 1 billion as historical examples equate to.

What is somewhat interesting is "thematic history seemingly repeating itself - at least superficially"

During the outbreak of the "Spanish flu pandemic" we seemed to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change. Industrialization, world travel, trade and communication had exploded like never before. Traditional agrarian - religious societies were be transformed in a dramatic way. Prior to 1900 the vast majority of the population world wide were born - lived - died within a 50km radius. Post 1900 that could no longer be said.

During the 2020s we seem to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change. The information economy, robot-ization, artificial intelligence seemed poised to explode like never before. The percentage of the world population subsisting on $1USD (1980 inflation adjusted) is at an all time low. Traditional Industrial - religious societies maybe transformed in a dramatic way. Prior to 2020 the vast majority of the world supply of everything - food - goods - resources were built up in interconnected Global Supply Chains. Perhaps post 2020's the economic risk of Global Supply Chains will have to be reconsidered ???

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

The interest in historical references is not surprising around here ; but interesting and informative.

Jorge posted - and I fully agree - that humanity is in a much better place scientifically / medically than ever before. There will be a cost but that cost must be compared to a population of 6 billion not 1 billion as historical examples equate to.

What is somewhat interesting is "thematic history seemingly repeating itself - at least superficially"

During the outbreak of the "Spanish flu pandemic" we seemed to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change. Industrialization, world travel, trade and communication had exploded like never before. Traditional agrarian - religious societies were be transformed in a dramatic way. Prior to 1900 the vast majority of the population world wide were born - lived - died within a 50km radius. Post 1900 that could no longer be said.

During the 2020s we seem to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change. The information economy, robot-ization, artificial intelligence seemed poised to explode like never before. The percentage of the world population subsisting on $1USD (1980 inflation adjusted) is at an all time low. Traditional Industrial - religious societies maybe transformed in a dramatic way. Prior to 2020 the vast majority of the world supply of everything - food - goods - resources were built up in interconnected Global Supply Chains. Perhaps post 2020's the economic risk of Global Supply Chains will have to be reconsidered ???

RELEASE THE ROBOTS!

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

Thanks Chickenboy. My background: I am a former army medic, now I am a Pediatric ICU nurse, I am also trained in ER, Adult ICU and Neonatal ICU. I work at a medium size tertiary hospital. During the Ebola fear a few years back, my hospital was the first one to build PICU rooms in my state capable of taking a patient under the age of 17 with Ebola.

Thanks guys for the extra information. I was able to get some from my hospital Infection control Doc's today, pretty much said the same thing that has been posted on here.

A quick breakdown for you all.

Ages 30-79 has been the most affected. Less than 3% has been under the age of 19 or over 80 (now those over 80 have been hit hard with it). Men are more apt to get it than women. People who or have these issues are at a higher risk or mortality smokers, COPD, cardiac disease, diabetes and any type of immune suppression issues.

My take on this: I am more worried about the Flu than I am about COVID-19. If you are not in a confined area, IE airplane, cruise ship, dorm, barracks, you should be ok. Wash your hands (most people wash them wrong, take notice do you wash your thumbs and between your fingers, get up under your nails?)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

I don't see where the page you linked to says what I put in red/bold above. In fact they are only currently listing the stats of those who died, not the stats of those infected.

The flu pandemic of 1917 (and the following years) was quite deadly to the healthy, in their prime with strong immune systems. COVID-19 is worst for those already in a weakened state. On the page you linked, the section "COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY" says that only 0.9% fatality of cases with no pre_existing condition. That's obviously still a bad disease but the people most at risk of dying from it are those in some way already at risk when they get COVID-19.

[MakeeLearn]

Here is a coronavirus map that tracks the Coronavirus cases and number of deaths per country around the world.

https://infographics.channelnewsasia.co ... 9/map.html

[DOCUP]

witpqs: Information is taken from multiple sources, some from articles I have read and other from word of mouth from physician's or other healthcare workers(I trust). Back on page 2 are two articles sited by Makeelearn and Erik Rutins that provide some age ranges. I chose the worldometers page due to it had a lot of information in an easy to digest form.

Most pathogens will hit the weak harder than normally healthy people.

I have been wondering how many patients went home when they were feeling better, but not completely healed. What I mean is the treatments worked but the virus/bacteria was only beaten down, if you stop treatment during this phase, the pathogen will come back even worse than before and faster. The body is already weakened from the first bout the second bout has a higher mortality rate. I heard this recently and can't remember where. Say for example its 1917. A normally healthy person gets the flu, they stay in be and take whatever home remedies they choose. After a few days they start feeling better (but not fulling recovered). They go out and start working in the fields, factory, or trenches. The flu comes back with a vengeances, this time they don't have the same type reserves (stored fat, energy etc) they had during the first battle with the flu.

I also wonder how many healthier people held off until it was to late or didn't go in until late because they don't have the money or insurance. We see this a lot in the US.