Success: remaking the Trade AI

[SittingDuck]

If what I am thinking is true, then what you'd really want is the program to 'shift' its value from ratings to stats as the player accrues PA or IP.  So after a certain value PA or IP there is an incremental shift towards stats, then another one sometime down the road, and then so on.

Thus, the AI will properly view player's value over time according to accumulated stats and not on a static percentage as it currently does.

[lynchjm24]

Yes, the stats should be considered across the lifetime of a player - not just the season.

Something like Game 1: 15% 3 years prior/20% 2 years prior/30% last year/balance ratings:
By game 81: 10% 3 years prior, 20% 2 years prior, 25% last year, 25% this year 20% ratings

It shouldn't just weigh current season stats.

[puresimmer]

ORIGINAL: lynchjm24

Yes, the stats should be considered across the lifetime of a player - not just the season.

Something like Game 1: 15% 3 years prior/20% 2 years prior/30% last year/balance ratings:
By game 81: 10% 3 years prior, 20% 2 years prior, 25% last year, 25% this year 20% ratings

It shouldn't just weigh current season stats.

I think you are on to something there. Noted...

[verizon32]

ORIGINAL: puresimmer

ORIGINAL: lynchjm24

Yes, the stats should be considered across the lifetime of a player - not just the season.

Something like Game 1: 15% 3 years prior/20% 2 years prior/30% last year/balance ratings:
By game 81: 10% 3 years prior, 20% 2 years prior, 25% last year, 25% this year 20% ratings

It shouldn't just weigh current season stats.

I think you are on to something there. Noted...

Shaun is that something your thinking of tweaking for Puresim 2007?

[SittingDuck]

Hmmm.  Yeah, I hope this can get adjusted.  This could be crucial.

I guess I was always under the impression that it considered career (sim) stats. 

I also wonder if import ratings are affected by the previous year's (historical year) totals?  Because I often see mediocre guys coming in after a career year with what I think are inflated ratings.

[puresimmer]

ORIGINAL: verizon32
Shaun is that something your thinking of tweaking for Puresim 2007?

I'm not sure. Probably not.

[puresimmer]

ORIGINAL: SittingDuck

Hmmm.  Yeah, I hope this can get adjusted.  This could be crucial.

I guess I was always under the impression that it considered career (sim) stats. 

I also wonder if import ratings are affected by the previous year's (historical year) totals?  Because I often see mediocre guys coming in after a career year with what I think are inflated ratings.

I'm not sure I'll be able to do that for 2007. BTW, when real players are imported they are typically modeled over about a 5 year average of their real stats (2 before) (1 current - most weight as well) (2 after)

[SittingDuck]

Great. Thanks for that bit of info. That's an intelligent modeling format.

Although, I've been seeing fielding ratings go all over the place (I've built 10+ 1966 associations in testing things out). But not batting so much (for the regulars - light use guys, yeah).

I guess fielding is very difficult to rate? Because I saw horrid Lee May get a 7/7 on arm/hands once. And you know that just ain't so.

Generally there is an average, but I do see sometimes it imports them at different ratings (like Carlton had some lower ratings recently). Interesting.

[lynchjm24]

There are no fielding stats in any of the databases, so I'm guessing it is just random.

[lynchjm24]

I should add that to use stats from 3 years prior in AI evaluations there needs to be a mechanism that creates Major League Equivalancies from minor league stats or those big minor league years are going to be overrated.

[SittingDuck]

ORIGINAL: lynchjm24

There are no fielding stats in any of the databases, so I'm guessing it is just random.

Yeah, that explains it. It is also why I was thinking of abandoning historical play altogether. The ratings have little relevancy (not being Shaun's issue or fault) to history. Meaning the outcome is kakapoopy.

At least with fictional you can't have any presupposed expectations.

[SittingDuck]

So I am working on this trade AI some more this afternoon.  Not sure what is driving some of these bizarre trades...

CIN trades Pete Rose (!) for SF's Frank Linzy (decent reliever). 

Dear Lord...  we need divine intervention.

[puresimmer]

ORIGINAL: SittingDuck

So I am working on this trade AI some more this afternoon.  Not sure what is driving some of these bizarre trades...

CIN trades Pete Rose (!) for SF's Frank Linzy (decent reliever). 

Dear Lord...  we need divine intervention.

Just stating the names does not help me. If you see a suspect trade, it would really help if you posted ratings and stats as well, thanks. PureSim has no idea who "Pete Rose" is, the entire thing is based on algorithms. Obviously AI can always be improved, so the more info you post the better chance I have of improving things.

[SittingDuck]

OK, I'll post relevant stats and ratings for the players. Nothing outlandish on ratings or stats on that trade - each was doing well and had good stats.

[SittingDuck]

I apologize if I sound overly critical; I don't mean it that way.  I mean it more from a standpoint of something that I'm trying to pinpoint and it's driving me crazy.

Obviously I wouldn't put this work into a game that I didn't think was stellar.  [;)]

[SittingDuck]

OK, I think I've got the weirdo trades ironed out. I am basically using near-default trade values for evalation (hedging a bit more towards ratings then previously in ratings vs stats) now. And a swapped PH for CH values. That's about it.

However, I continue to see the odd player traded while injured (or maybe he has just finished healing) while he has a few days left on the DL. And this type of trading is always done by the team with the DL player. Here's an example (Briles traded for a scrub - always seems to be a scrub that is getting traded for). This is the third such trade I've seen. Gibson was the first, someone else, now Briles. I think this has nothing to do with the XML.

[SittingDuck]

Some more info on this situation.  I have the assn archived on June 1st and sim until the trade deadline to watch trades.  So this assn on June 1st has Briles on DL with about two weeks to go (one day after his injury).

Anyhow, in the first week of June St. Louis is not actively pursuing trades.  Then after about a week they switch into 'Getting Younger' mode, which is odd, considering their avg team age is towards the younger half of the league [&:]    Plus, Briles is all of 23 y.o and the scrubs - well, who knows.  So I am day-by-day simming this league to see what happens.  I'll keep reposting any info that I find.

[SittingDuck]

Ha! I think I found it. This was causing problems in other assns when I was using it for every evaluation mode. Salary = "0" seems to set this up. The only mode I currently have doing this is 'Getting Younger' (zero being the default xml setting - not altered). St. Louis, of course, is now in that mode. I'll sim a bit further and see what happens.

If I guess this right, they view Briles (only injured player) as expendable because he isn't playing. Even though he is young.

[SittingDuck]

Couldn't get it to reproduce.  No outstandingly weird trades this time, although Philly successfully traded Willie Montanez for Boog Powell.  Montanez hitting well, high potential and very young, small contract.  Powell w/ big homers, .242 BA and BIG contract.  So I can somewhat accept that.

I still stand by the Salary = "0" thing causing problems.  I'll continue to sim this two months over and over and check every trade to see if any more Good-4-Scrub trades happen again. 

[SittingDuck]

Well, it ain't the salary thing. I currently have all salary stuff at '1' and had another injured player traded for a scrub. Arrrgh...