OT - The New Coronavirus

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:

Total Cases: 213557
Total Recovered: 84317
Total Deaths: 8790

Death Rate: 8790 / (8790 + 84317) = 9.4%

That's up from 8.5% yesterday.

Note that the above figures are all we have to work with. If you don't like the results you can:

1. Manipulate the data. That means cherry-picking the data you like and ignoring the data you don't like. That's an obvious vector for bias.
2. Speculate about unknowns. That seems to be the balm most of you are turning to (especially for the recoveries - not the deaths). But this will only result in a guess and everyone's guess will vary wildly. (And deaths are unknown as well - victims that died at home alone may not be found for months, and N. Korea's and Iran's numbers are suspect).
3. Cram the unresolved cases into the "recovered" column. Obviously wrong.
4. Wait months for a fully accurate accounting. We can't do that. We need the best estimate NOW.

The figure above is the only one we have that is available NOW, and has no data MANIPULATION or SPECULATION.

Let me know when your number reaches 100%. At that point I will go to all the active cases and let them know they have to die to support your logic.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:

Total Cases: 213557
Total Recovered: 84317
Total Deaths: 8790

Death Rate: 8790 / (8790 + 84317) = 9.4%

That's up from 8.5% yesterday.

Note that the above figures are all we have to work with. If you don't like the results you can:

1. Manipulate the data. That means cherry-picking the data you like and ignoring the data you don't like. That's an obvious vector for bias.
2. Speculate about unknowns. That seems to be the balm most of you are turning to (especially for the recoveries - not the deaths). But this will only result in a guess and everyone's guess will vary wildly. (And deaths are unknown as well - victims that died at home alone may not be found for months, and N. Korea's and Iran's numbers are suspect).
3. Cram the unresolved cases into the "recovered" column. Obviously wrong.
4. Wait months for a fully accurate accounting. We can't do that. We need the best estimate NOW.

The figure above is the only one we have that is available NOW, and has no data MANIPULATION or SPECULATION.

Let me know when your number reaches 100%. At that point I will go to all the active cases and let them know they have to die to support your logic.

Especially if he were to catch it. Then, if it is not allowed where he lives, he could relocate to someplace where assisted suicide is legal. [;)]

[RangerJoe]

People with blood type A may be more susceptible to coronavirus

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 09331.html

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:

Total Cases: 213557
Total Recovered: 84317
Total Deaths: 8790

Death Rate: 8790 / (8790 + 84317) = 9.4%

That's up from 8.5% yesterday.

Note that the above figures are all we have to work with. If you don't like the results you can:

1. Manipulate the data. That means cherry-picking the data you like and ignoring the data you don't like. That's an obvious vector for bias.
2. Speculate about unknowns. That seems to be the balm most of you are turning to (especially for the recoveries - not the deaths). But this will only result in a guess and everyone's guess will vary wildly. (And deaths are unknown as well - victims that died at home alone may not be found for months, and N. Korea's and Iran's numbers are suspect).
3. Cram the unresolved cases into the "recovered" column. Obviously wrong.
4. Wait months for a fully accurate accounting. We can't do that. We need the best estimate NOW.

The figure above is the only one we have that is available NOW, and has no data MANIPULATION or SPECULATION.

Let me know when your number reaches 100%. At that point I will go to all the active cases and let them know they have to die to support your logic.

Especially if he were to catch it. Then, if it is not allowed where he lives, he could relocate to someplace where assisted suicide is legal. [;)]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Note the numbers on the right. [:D]

[RangerJoe]

Does that information include the cases where people got sick from the virus but it was not reported as such? That number should be included.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:

Total Cases: 213557
Total Recovered: 84317
Total Deaths: 8790

Death Rate: 8790 / (8790 + 84317) = 9.4%

That's up from 8.5% yesterday.

Note that the above figures are all we have to work with. If you don't like the results you can:

1. Manipulate the data. That means cherry-picking the data you like and ignoring the data you don't like. That's an obvious vector for bias.
2. Speculate about unknowns. That seems to be the balm most of you are turning to (especially for the recoveries - not the deaths). But this will only result in a guess and everyone's guess will vary wildly. (And deaths are unknown as well - victims that died at home alone may not be found for months, and N. Korea's and Iran's numbers are suspect).
3. Cram the unresolved cases into the "recovered" column. Obviously wrong.
4. Wait months for a fully accurate accounting. We can't do that. We need the best estimate NOW.

The figure above is the only one we have that is available NOW, and has no data MANIPULATION or SPECULATION.

Let me know when your number reaches 100%. At that point I will go to all the active cases and let them know they have to die to support your logic.

Especially if he were to catch it. Then, if it is not allowed where he lives, he could relocate to someplace where assisted suicide is legal. [;)]

warspite1

Zorch, RangerJoe I really wouldn't bother. He's clearly enjoying his five minutes of fame and appears to be getting off on the numbers rising higher. He knows that if this thing does prove worse than we are currently being led to believe then he can be the all knowing sage - and if in time the numbers prove to be lower, then he can use his 'mathematical formula' as his defence. I note he hasn't broken his numbers down by country - after all that would expose the absurdity of his 'methodology'. You mention 100% Zorch, but the US is around 50% death rate (according to him) so instead of telling the active cases in the US they have to die, just tell them they need to flip one of those coins he keeps banging on about before knowing what is the appropriate course of action for them to take.

One thing that is clear is that he isn't going to stop, he's on a roll and loving it. So in responding we are just going to get the same thing everyday; The poor man's grim reaper pipes up with his daily shock headline based on selected, cherry-picked data for maximum effect, then calmer, more measured heads take exception, and others get angry that the same conversations are being had.

So perhaps the "ignore him and he'll go away approach" is best?

[rico21]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:

Total Cases: 213557
Total Recovered: 84317
Total Deaths: 8790

Death Rate: 8790 / (8790 + 84317) = 9.4%

That's up from 8.5% yesterday.

Note that the above figures are all we have to work with. If you don't like the results you can:

1. Manipulate the data. That means cherry-picking the data you like and ignoring the data you don't like. That's an obvious vector for bias.
2. Speculate about unknowns. That seems to be the balm most of you are turning to (especially for the recoveries - not the deaths). But this will only result in a guess and everyone's guess will vary wildly. (And deaths are unknown as well - victims that died at home alone may not be found for months, and N. Korea's and Iran's numbers are suspect).
3. Cram the unresolved cases into the "recovered" column. Obviously wrong.
4. Wait months for a fully accurate accounting. We can't do that. We need the best estimate NOW.

The figure above is the only one we have that is available NOW, and has no data MANIPULATION or SPECULATION.

I agree that 10% of the 20% who have severe complications die.
That is to say,
About 2% of the more or less declared contaminated.
About 1% of all infected.
About 0.5% of the global population.
About 10 to 20 times, more than the flu.
All this over the entire duration of the epidemic.
My calculation method is simple;
I compile all the information, I analyze, I calculate, I post.
A little like you.
Cheers.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: warspite1


...

So perhaps the "ignore him and he'll go away approach" is best?

agree, every now and then he seems to delight in sticking to this sort of banal idiocy. He's clearly too intelligent to believe in what he is saying, so its trolling.

I'm on a notice board used by social statisticians and of course that includes experts in interpreting health statistics. In this context, the only honest answers are 'we don't know' around mortality/infection rate etc. I could cross post some of it but mostly its someone trying out a methcdology and asking for advice both as to the approach and the conclusions they are trying to draw.

[Pvt_Grunt]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

So this is the first day of working from home while my little warspites are still at Uni/School and Mrs W is at work. Weird.

I believe they are called "Destroyers" [:D]

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Zorch



Let me know when your number reaches 100%. At that point I will go to all the active cases and let them know they have to die to support your logic.

Especially if he were to catch it. Then, if it is not allowed where he lives, he could relocate to someplace where assisted suicide is legal. [;)]

warspite1

Zorch, RangerJoe I really wouldn't bother. He's clearly enjoying his five minutes of fame and appears to be getting off on the numbers rising higher. He knows that if this thing does prove worse than we are currently being led to believe then he can be the all knowing sage - and if in time the numbers prove to be lower, then he can use his 'mathematical formula' as his defence. I note he hasn't broken his numbers down by country - after all that would expose the absurdity of his 'methodology'. You mention 100% Zorch, but the US is around 50% death rate (according to him) so instead of telling the active cases in the US they have to die, just tell them they need to flip one of those coins he keeps banging on about before knowing what is the appropriate course of action for them to take.

One thing that is clear is that he isn't going to stop, he's on a roll and loving it. So in responding we are just going to get the same thing everyday; The poor man's grim reaper pipes up with his daily shock headline based on selected, cherry-picked data for maximum effect, then calmer, more measured heads take exception, and others get angry that the same conversations are being had.

So perhaps the "ignore him and he'll go away approach" is best?

I shall henceforth hold my tongue (in a hygienically safe manner).

[loki100]

if anyone is interested, this is the model that is driving the UK government's response:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

The annex has some US based data

Table 1 (p. 5), I've repeated below, its probably still the best estimate of both the likelihood of an instance of infection meaning admission to hospital and the mortality rate - (pick your age group):



edit: if you want a model you can investigate (& change key variables/assumptions) this is a decent attempt:

https://alhill.shinyapps.io/COVID19seir/

[Zovs]

Thanks loki100 that is the most reasonable thing I have seen posted in days.

[rommel222]

Greetings RangerJoe,
Wife and I are both A+ blood type and we stay indoors as much as possible. We make use of the reserved 1 hour senior shopping in supermarkets here in Saratoga, NY.
Wife and I do not have the corona virus and hope to keep it that way since we both have compromised immune systems and both in our 60's.

[rico21]

Any info on the fact that a person infected by only one other, is more likely to get out of it than if it was contaminated by 10 person at the same time?

[z1812]

Worth Reading. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy ... re-testing

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Does that information include the cases where people got sick from the virus but it was not reported as such? That number should be included.

Now you are being silly.

There are millions more flu cases than are reported annually but no one is sick enough to go to the doctor. Yet I see people reciting flu deaths as if every flu illness was reported. Reciting those numbers as proof and then doing the opposite for some other virus is plainly irrational. So, we either go with reported cases for every illness or we shut up. Consistency is vital.

[Curtis Lemay]

warspite1

Zorch, RangerJoe I really wouldn't bother. He's clearly enjoying his five minutes of fame and appears to be getting off on the numbers rising higher. He knows that if this thing does prove worse than we are currently being led to believe then he can be the all knowing sage - and if in time the numbers prove to be lower, then he can use his 'mathematical formula' as his defence.

You do not know what my motives are. All the above is a lie. This is some sort of "shoot the messenger" syndrome.

I note he hasn't broken his numbers down by country - after all that would expose the absurdity of his 'methodology'. You mention 100% Zorch, but the US is around 50% death rate (according to him) so instead of telling the active cases in the US they have to die, just tell them they need to flip one of those coins he keeps banging on about before knowing what is the appropriate course of action for them to take.

Breaking it down by country would be data manipulation. The virus didn't originate in the US. Sick people were shipped here from elsewhere. The US can't be viewed in a stand-alone way. The Worldwide numbers are the only ones that matter.

One thing that is clear is that he isn't going to stop, he's on a roll and loving it. So in responding we are just going to get the same thing everyday; The poor man's grim reaper pipes up with his daily shock headline based on selected, cherry-picked data for maximum effect, then calmer, more measured heads take exception, and others get angry that the same conversations are being had.

So perhaps the "ignore him and he'll go away approach" is best?

Just more lies. Again, you do not know my motives. For the record, my motive is that I am very concerned about the figures I'm getting. Yes, others are arguing against them, but not cogently.

[Curtis Lemay]

Today's figures:

Total Cases: 225252
Total Recovered: 85826
Total Dead: 9276
(Wikipedia)

Death Rate = 9276 / (9276 + 85826) = 9.8%

Up from 9.4% yesterday.

[Canoerebel]

Some of the math in here reminds me of the guy starting a round of golf, scoring an eagle on the first hole, and projecting confidently that he'll finish at 36 under par.

[Erik Rutins]

Please keep it civil. Curtis can post what numbers he wants to post. Feel free to discuss, don't make it personal.