MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Isn't there a song lyric about "know when to hold them, know when to run away"? Well, probably not quite those words.

Could that be from "The Gambler" with Kenny Rogers? The song has a similar line.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q2mFiN7GIc


Sorry for the off topic.

"Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away . . . and know when to run."[:D]

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Black arrows are the moves you suggested. Blue arrows are the moves the Japanese would make to counter. Orange boxes indicate units that would end up either disorganized or OOS. And, the 2 circled units in green would most likely be killed off by the Japanese in attacks.


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Edit: I may have missed a unit or two in the south being OOS, but units destroyed by these attacks would put the Chinese in almost the same situation as they are in now. The purpose of moving the Kunmind Warlord to the hex between the Alpine hexsides was to force the Japanese either to mount a large force to destroy him, buying time, or to make them go around him, also buying time for Kunming to get the 4-2 INF reinforcement next turn.

Also, this is only one set of options that could be used to destroy Nationalist units. The unit replacing the 3-3 would also have been a fine target for the Japanese.

I would have moved the 2-2 Kunming militia NW (every unit has to earn its portion of rice).

The Japanese 5-3 moving east towards Ankang would be moving out of supply and become disorganized. This would leave the attack on the 2-3 Chengtu Warlord as 14.5:4. The attack on the 5-2 Warlord would be 33:10 (if I counted the strength of the units that are not immediately visible correctly).

As the Chinese I would welcome these attacks. Both of these odds calculations assume that Japan throws the HQ's into the attacks. Even if only one of them fails, the Japanese will be hard pressed to create strong attacks for the rest of the turn.

The Japanese 5-3 moving SW towards Kunming and the 5-4 moving due west would both be out of supply after they move. If the 8-4-3 HQ gets disorganized, they won't be going anywhere. Putting the 5-4 OOS can probably be avoided if there are moveable units under the 6-3 marine.

Once the Japanese HQ's are disorganized any hopes of a flanking or oozing advance will be difficult to do.

===

My main point here is that with the units in the mountains the aggregate defensive strength for the Chinese is doubled. I think of the 5-2 in the mountains as if it were a 10-2. Moving it to a clear hex, cuts it ability to defend off at the knees.

[Red Prince]

My main point here is that with the units in the mountains the aggregate defensive strength for the Chinese is doubled. I think of the 5-2 in the mountains as if it were a 10-2. Moving it to a clear hex, cuts it ability to defend off at the knees.

True enough, but stacked with the 5-3, as it is, in the clear hex, the Japanese were unable to move their slow troops close enough to make an attack on it. This buys one impulse. The next move, into Chungking, gives the same effect as the mountain hex -- halving attacker values instead of doubling the defenders -- plus gives an extra -1 on the die roll for a multi-stack factory. This should hopefully buy a second impulse.

And, yes, there was an ENG under the MAR that could keep at least the 5-4 Japanese unit in supply, I think. I'd have to run it to see it properly. I've always been good with math, but I never was able to play a game of chess in my head, and that's basically what I'm trying to do here with these hypothetical situations. [:D]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

For the CW the choice is easy: Bilbao should be covered with shore bombardment factors, so the Germans are going to be in a lot of trouble if they attack the place. No way a conquest of Spain is going to happen... Also they should attack the Italian Navy in the Western Med. The Italians cannot afford to leave the place, since Tangiers is than out of supply. I suggest taking a naval impulse and sail a fleet into the Western Med. Be as agressive as possible towards that rather small Italian fleet (or are there more Italians that those shown here?). Also ground strike the units in Tangiers. By doing so, you are reducing a possible attack on Gibraltar this turn and also might lower the defense of Tangiers if the Italians are leaving the Western Med (you just have to pound those spaghetti-eaters heavy enough...). Also: without a fleet present in the Western Med, those units in Tangier are isolated and will not get reorganised end of this turn.
By the way: always look for attacks on the Italian TRS...

The CW fleet may be large, but it is not endless.

Units need to be stationed in the North Sea, the Bay of Biscay and Cape St. Vincent (to protect Convoys and provide Shore Bombardment for Bilbao and Gibraltar). A fleet is already in the E. Med, and small fleets totaling about 8-10 ships are still stationed in the near- to far-East to respond to any Japanese surprise attacks (hoping for a shot at TRS) that might come. I don't think that is an unreasonable amount of CLs to station away from the current action. All of the ships in Gibraltar are disorganized from failed attacks on the Italians in the W. Med. I have 5 CA in Port Said that could possibly get there, but would have to fight through the E. Med first, and another 5 rounding Africa to rejoin the main fleet.

The point here is that I can't do everything I'm asked to do with the CW fleet (by you or by me in my role as Grand Admiral). Bad luck in the W. Med has made it difficult for the CW. There must come a point when I stop throwing "adequate" forces at the Italians and wait for the opportunity to throw "unbeatable" forces at them.

The other point is that there reaslly aren't any ships with range and movement points available to get into a high enough sea box to gain the advantage in the W. Med.

There are still a few ports in France that Germany has not yet taken in its rush to get troops to the Spanish border. I've considered sending the Montreal MIL into one of these ports to be an annoyance to the Germans, forcing them to pull back some frontline troops, but that would put another transport at potential risk.

I know the CW is a very lonely nation to play in the early game -- until the USSR and USA are into the war -- and I think that perhaps the 6 weeks I've been working on these 5 turns may be creating a bias toward a more aggressive CW playing style than would normally be expected. Granted, the aggressive Axis play has been somewhat overwhelming in Europe and China -- possibly more so than in most games, but what can really be done about it until another major power enters the game?

If the CW strips a fleet in order to try something offensive rather than defensive, the Axis can adjust and strike hard somewhere else. I think that the US Entry Option to Repair Western Allied Ships is going to have to become a priority very soon.

I also want to remind everyone that Lend Lease to the Western Allies is Option 27 and to the USSR is Option 30. To this point in the game, the US has not had the ability to choose either yet, so that bug in the game is not actually doing any harm to either the CW or the USSR -- yet.

What it comes down to, is that a) I screwed up the CW Naval Unit placement at the beginning of the game, b) I'm a better player on the offensive than on the defensive, c) despite early US Entry being very high, things are now evening out, d) I've made more mistakes that hurt the Allied effort than I have that hurt the Axis effort, and e) overall, the die rolls have been to the advantage of the Axis.

Take special note of d) above. While this is a very public game (being an on-going AAR), I don't expect this is necessarily unusual in a game of WiF. Once side or the other is going to make more mistakes. And, if the other side recognizes them, it's going to take advantage of them.
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This started as an explanation of why I don't know exactly what to do with the CW, but I'd like to hear some thoughts on the other things I brought up as well. Since I've only ever played one Barbarossa game against a real opponent (Orm), I don't know if my perceptions are correct.

[Red Prince]

Using the "Units in Game" form, I edited this image together, so that you could see exactly what I have available -- as well as where the units all are at the moment.

This list only includes units that are currently in port (naval) or on land (air/land), and that are not currently disorganized. For clarity, I have also edited out Convoy Points in port and Oil Point markers.

The CW has 25 naval units available, but they are a varied combination of ship types, nationalities, and in numerous different locations. Additionally, some are very limited in either Range or Movement Points. The two CVL in Plymouth are pretty much useless, since they don't have any CVP.

There are 30 land units available to the CW. Most of the units in Southeast Asia cannot help out in Egypt due to non-cooperation. Those that can do not have transport available yet. When/if it becomes available, I can move some TERR units to India as garrisons, and then move the Indian troops to Egypt -- if there is time left for that. I don't want to leave India with too low a garrison value. Calcutta, and Bombay both need to have units in them (or next to them), or there is a risk of a Partisan showing up and destroying a useful factory.

There are only 5 available aircraft at the moment, and they are all needed where they are. In addition to these, there is a disorganized LND in the UK (failed Strategic Bombing), a disorganized NAV in Gibraltar (failed attempt in W. Med), and 5 CVP at sea. Of these 5, only one is a Class-2 . . . the other 4 are all Class-1 aircraft. Two CVP are on ships in Cape St. Vincent (on the way to the Med), and the others are guarding the North Sea. CW air units have killed off some German air units, but have overall failed miserably. With limited BP, and a demand for land units, it's been very difficult to find the spare BP to build any new FTR, LND, or even CVP units.

It's still the first year of the war, and it is not going well for the Alies (perhaps history does repeat itself). Rather than expending more resources, I think the best option is to let Wavell defend Egypt as long as he can, maintain the resistance in Gibraltar, and not try to do anything fancy. The CW needs to build up air power before it can dominate with its sea power.
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Switching point of view, I've started plans in motion to attempt a German invasion of the Azores when it comes time to DOW Portugal.
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Switching back, it's a very large empire to protect, and the Mean Green Giant is still asleep, and Comrade Joe has his own agenda -- which unlike the actual history books say -- is to use up most of his actions to assist the faltering Chinese.

[Centuur]

There are still CW controlled ships in the W.Med, are they? So start a fight, by disorganising a ship. From RAW:

You don’t need to have moved a unit into the sea area in the impulse
to initiate combat and you can still pick an area even if you fought an
interception combat there.
Turn the chosen unit face down. You only need to turn a unit facedown
to initiate the combat, not to fight each round in the combat.

The trick when playing the CW is to send fleets into a sea area where there is an Italian or German Fleet at that point, or where the Italians might send the TRS and stay there, initiating combat every combat phase, whenever a Italian or German fleet is present. Simply don't abort as the CW, except when fighting against impossible odds. The CW fleet is huge, compared to the combined fleet of the Italians and the Germans, so it can absorb losses more easily than the Euroaxis. A fleet in a sea area can initiate combat every impulse (even during the enemy impulses). You can only fight one time per impulse (so if the Axis initiated one, the allies can't do so also in the Axis impulse). As the CW, you're ships should get a lot of bumps and scratches while fighting the Italians.
Another thing I tend to do is not to send a fleet into the North Sea after France has been conquered/vichied by the Axis, when there isn't an invasion force waiting in German ports to conduct a Sealion. It is usually better to react on moves by the small German surface fleet, since this gives you ships in reserves which might come in handy later.

Now some people did already say it, but I will also state this: the Japanese are of no importance to the CW at all at this point. They aren't ready for an attack on the CW. If they were, even then I would say that they are of no importance to the CW. The message to Japan coming from the CW should be: please DoW me. That means the green monster is going to appear very soon with all those extra chits going his way and full production to repair CW ships.
So strip the Far East of the ships and forces. Just keep small garrisons in India, Burma and Singapore (to prevent nasty things by Partisans) and get the rest of the units and ships out to where the fighting is. They are needed there and shouldn't sit on the proverbial ass doing nothing. Every CW ship should earn their pays, fighting the Italians and Germans in the first full two years of the war. I usually strip the Pacific of all ships, except for a few CA/CL doing escort duty to protect CW controlled TRS.

[Red Prince]

I just did some calculations, and through impulse #5 of M/J '40, the CW has had 38 BP worth of units destroyed. This includes only CW units, and does not include any units it gained through alignment of minor nations. It also does not include naval units that were "damaged" and sent to the repair pool (much more trouble to track down).

During the first 4 turns, they only had 64 BP to use to build new units. That's a net gain of only 26 BP over the first 4+ turns. Continuing aggressive play by the CW, particularly with ships that take a long time to rebuild, seems inadvisable to me.

There are still CW controlled ships in the W.Med, are they?

See the image below. As I noted in post #610, the remaining Spanish force retreated to Gibraltar. If it had not, it would likely have been smashed.

The CW fleet is huge, compared to the combined fleet of the Italians and the Germans, so it can absorb losses more easily than the Euroaxis.

Yes, it is huge, but it has more territory to cover, and it has more tasks to accomplish. And, it has already absorbed so many losses in the W. Med that it has had to regroup in order to gain the advantage again.

Another thing I tend to do is not to send a fleet into the North Sea after France has been conquered/vichied by the Axis, when there isn't an invasion force waiting in German ports to conduct a Sealion. It is usually better to react on moves by the small German surface fleet, since this gives you ships in reserves which might come in handy later

Unfortunately, I can't afford this luxury. There is an AMPH in Kiel and ships that can carry divisions far away from the North Sea. I need to have a strong enough fleet there to discourage any attempt at Sea Lion or Sea Lion-like actions -- by being in position to intercept them -- especially since I've had to strip the UK for the time being in order to support Africa.

So strip the Far East of the ships and forces. Just keep small garrisons in India, Burma and Singapore (to prevent nasty things by Partisans) and get the rest of the units and ships out to where the fighting is. They are needed there and shouldn't sit on the proverbial ass doing nothing. Every CW ship should earn their pays, fighting the Italians and Germans in the first full two years of the war. I usually strip the Pacific of all ships, except for a few CA/CL doing escort duty to protect CW controlled TRS.

Please review the range of the ships in the Far East. Many of them would take half a year to get into the action. The others can reach the E. Med by next turn, but without any air cover, they are just begging to be destroyed by the soon-to-come Italian NAVs.

Also, even if the USA gets an extra chit per turn starting now, chances are it won't help all that much. In fact, those chances are 55% per turn of a 0 or a 1 being added. Yes, every little bit helps, but stripping the CW Far-East is begging for an attack that might last a full year or more before the USA can successfully DOW Japan. Is that really a safe thing to do, particularly with China in such a dire situation?

[Red Prince]

I should add to this that there is a MAR division in Canton, just waiting for the chance to strike, and a 2nd MAR division coming in for Japan at the start of next turn. With those two units and whatever I can put on my current AMPH, a lot of damage could be done to the CW before the USA gets into it. At the moment, Australia is completely defenseless. With just those 2 MAR divisions and some fleet elements to provide supply, Melbourne and Canberra could be taken very easily -- with no reinforcements in sight -- at the start of next turn.

Suddenly, autumn falls in the northern hemisphere, and Australia is a Japanese Island !!!

And the USA is still twidling its thumbs, wondering if it really should get involved or not. [:)]
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Edit: And, in the meantime, the effort to wipe out China continues without being effected by this "little war" with the CW. If China chooses then to Surrender, all the better! Japan won't end up Neutral, and it can redeploy however it wants to with lots of land movements -- because the CW has abandoned the seas of the South Pacific in order to try to stabilize a failing Med.

Where the hell are those Americans, anyway! [:@]

[Red Prince]

Okay, I chose a Naval Action for the CW, so that I could:

• move the TRS from the E. Coast to Casablanca (Montreal MIL)
• move the TRS from Cape Basin to Casablanca (RSA TERR)
• move the fleet from French Polynesia (at Centuur's urging) to the N. Atlantic
• move ships from Scapa Flow into both Faeroes Gap and the N. Atlantic (to have a tiny chance to intercept an invasion of the Azores)
• place sentry ships in the S. China and Timor sea areas
• try once more to clear out the E. Med (good luck, Admiral!)

The deciding factors were the need to "protect" the Azores from future invasion, and the fact that a Naval Action allows Gort to reorganize both TRS that returned to Casablanca. They can then start heading out toward the Far East to begin the redisposition of troops there a full turn sooner than expected.

[Red Prince]

Someone suggested hoping for luck in surprise points against the NAV in the E. Med (for the CW).

Well, I tried it, and here were the results:

CW initiates combat in the E. Med, using CA Devonshire; Allied Roll: 1, Axis: 7
.....Italy chooses Naval Air Combat, CW uses 6 Surprise Points to Increase AA Columns
.....AA Rolls: 2, 1 (reduction of 1 Air-to-Sea Factor)
.....Italy Aborts CA Liverpool

With any luck at all, the -1/2 (lowest of 2 rolls) should have either eliminated both Air-to-Sea Factors of the NAV or Aborted it from combat. Guess what? I'm starting to think the CW doesn't want to keep the Med. I let this attempt go on for a total of 4 combat rounds, and the CW didn't get lucky again. In fact, the Axis didn't fail to find again, while the CW only found in 1 more round. After the first round (failure by the CW to eliminate the NAV), the Axis was able to use its Surprise Points to clear the NAV through without AA fire.

Final results:

Italy was completely undamaged by the attack . . . and managed to damage/abort a CA and abort 4 others, leaving only 4 sea-worthy ships remaining.

So, the CW was forced to abort to Suez or risk losing even more ships. If it stayed, it would have had 9 Surface Factors on 6 ships (-X/1D/3A) vs. 18 Surface Factors on 4 ships (1X/-D/1A) or 2 unstoppable Air-to-Sea Factors on 4 ships (-X/-D/2A), so the only hope of salvaging any kind of victory required search rolls that gave the CW at least 4 Surprise Points to use to choose the combat type. That seemed unlikely.

I tried, with what I had available, but failed. You can say a lot of things about my game as the CW, but you can't say I didn't try.
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Edit: Correction: the CW aborted to Port Said, not to Suez, since Suez is not a Major Port

[Red Prince]

It's going to be another hot one, as we return to the extreme end of the weather chart for Axis impulse #7:

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I just did some calculations, and through impulse #5 of M/J '40, the CW has had 38 BP worth of units destroyed. This includes only CW units, and does not include any units it gained through alignment of minor nations. It also does not include naval units that were "damaged" and sent to the repair pool (much more trouble to track down).

During the first 4 turns, they only had 64 BP to use to build new units. That's a net gain of only 26 BP over the first 4+ turns. Continuing aggressive play by the CW, particularly with ships that take a long time to rebuild, seems inadvisable to me.

There are still CW controlled ships in the W.Med, are they?

See the image below. As I noted in post #610, the remaining Spanish force retreated to Gibraltar. If it had not, it would likely have been smashed.

The CW fleet is huge, compared to the combined fleet of the Italians and the Germans, so it can absorb losses more easily than the Euroaxis.

Yes, it is huge, but it has more territory to cover, and it has more tasks to accomplish. And, it has already absorbed so many losses in the W. Med that it has had to regroup in order to gain the advantage again.

Another thing I tend to do is not to send a fleet into the North Sea after France has been conquered/vichied by the Axis, when there isn't an invasion force waiting in German ports to conduct a Sealion. It is usually better to react on moves by the small German surface fleet, since this gives you ships in reserves which might come in handy later

Unfortunately, I can't afford this luxury. There is an AMPH in Kiel and ships that can carry divisions far away from the North Sea. I need to have a strong enough fleet there to discourage any attempt at Sea Lion or Sea Lion-like actions -- by being in position to intercept them -- especially since I've had to strip the UK for the time being in order to support Africa.

So strip the Far East of the ships and forces. Just keep small garrisons in India, Burma and Singapore (to prevent nasty things by Partisans) and get the rest of the units and ships out to where the fighting is. They are needed there and shouldn't sit on the proverbial ass doing nothing. Every CW ship should earn their pays, fighting the Italians and Germans in the first full two years of the war. I usually strip the Pacific of all ships, except for a few CA/CL doing escort duty to protect CW controlled TRS.

Please review the range of the ships in the Far East. Many of them would take half a year to get into the action. The others can reach the E. Med by next turn, but without any air cover, they are just begging to be destroyed by the soon-to-come Italian NAVs.

Also, even if the USA gets an extra chit per turn starting now, chances are it won't help all that much. In fact, those chances are 55% per turn of a 0 or a 1 being added. Yes, every little bit helps, but stripping the CW Far-East is begging for an attack that might last a full year or more before the USA can successfully DOW Japan. Is that really a safe thing to do, particularly with China in such a dire situation?

Repairing ships doesn't take very long. It is being destroyed that is a problem. If the risk of losing naval units seems dangerous to the Commonwealth, imagine what it feels like to the Italians and Germans. Each EuroAxis naval unit is much more valuable to them than comparable units to the Allied side. As Grant noticed in his first combat in the Civil war (paraphrasing): the enemy is just as afraid of you, as you are of the enemy.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I should add to this that there is a MAR division in Canton, just waiting for the chance to strike, and a 2nd MAR division coming in for Japan at the start of next turn. With those two units and whatever I can put on my current AMPH, a lot of damage could be done to the CW before the USA gets into it. At the moment, Australia is completely defenseless. With just those 2 MAR divisions and some fleet elements to provide supply, Melbourne and Canberra could be taken very easily -- with no reinforcements in sight -- at the start of next turn.

Suddenly, autumn falls in the northern hemisphere, and Australia is a Japanese Island !!!

And the USA is still twidling its thumbs, wondering if it really should get involved or not. [:)]
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Edit: And, in the meantime, the effort to wipe out China continues without being effected by this "little war" with the CW. If China chooses then to Surrender, all the better! Japan won't end up Neutral, and it can redeploy however it wants to with lots of land movements -- because the CW has abandoned the seas of the South Pacific in order to try to stabilize a failing Med.

Where the hell are those Americans, anyway! [:@]

Not really.

Japan has a long list of things it wants at the start of the war: Singapore, Manila, Batavia, Borneo, an attack on the US fleet in Honolulu, Guam, ... They are going to get some of those regardless of how the Allies defend. Making each of them a little bit more difficult to get is the best the Allies can do. Going for Australia is not in Japan's best interest. Oil is much more important. Invading from low section boxes is quite difficult. Maintaining supply to far flung units while the enemy has major ports adjacent to the supply path is very difficult. Japan is going to have nightmares with the activity limits if it is trying to move both land and naval units aggressively. Virtually all of the US Navy is going to be in the Pacific - and they arrive quickly once war is declared. Japan does not want to wait until the US declares war (because of surprise).

Say Japan devotes a couple of good invading units, plus transports and support naval units to Australia. When the US arrives it goes to ports in the South Pacific and threatens the supply lines. It can also use Singapore and/or Manila if those haven't been taken out. Then what it the life expectancy of the Japanese units in Australia?

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I should add to this that there is a MAR division in Canton, just waiting for the chance to strike, and a 2nd MAR division coming in for Japan at the start of next turn. With those two units and whatever I can put on my current AMPH, a lot of damage could be done to the CW before the USA gets into it. At the moment, Australia is completely defenseless. With just those 2 MAR divisions and some fleet elements to provide supply, Melbourne and Canberra could be taken very easily -- with no reinforcements in sight -- at the start of next turn.

Suddenly, autumn falls in the northern hemisphere, and Australia is a Japanese Island !!!

And the USA is still twidling its thumbs, wondering if it really should get involved or not. [:)]
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Edit: And, in the meantime, the effort to wipe out China continues without being effected by this "little war" with the CW. If China chooses then to Surrender, all the better! Japan won't end up Neutral, and it can redeploy however it wants to with lots of land movements -- because the CW has abandoned the seas of the South Pacific in order to try to stabilize a failing Med.

Where the hell are those Americans, anyway! [:@]

Not really.

Japan has a long list of things it wants at the start of the war: Singapore, Manila, Batavia, Borneo, an attack on the US fleet in Honolulu, Guam, ... They are going to get some of those regardless of how the Allies defend. Making each of them a little bit more difficult to get is the best the Allies can do. Going for Australia is not in Japan's best interest. Oil is much more important. Invading from low section boxes is quite difficult. Maintaining supply to far flung units while the enemy has major ports adjacent to the supply path is very difficult. Japan is going to have nightmares with the activity limits if it is trying to move both land and naval units aggressively. Virtually all of the US Navy is going to be in the Pacific - and they arrive quickly once war is declared. Japan does not want to wait until the US declares war (because of surprise).

Say Japan devotes a couple of good invading units, plus transports and support naval units to Australia. When the US arrives it goes to ports in the South Pacific and threatens the supply lines. It can also use Singapore and/or Manila if those haven't been taken out. Then what it the life expectancy of the Japanese units in Australia?

Nil, of course.

The idea is to get into Australia just long enough to conquer it, forcing the Allies to retake it, then get those units out of there and on to more useful places. The hope would be to do this all to the CW before the USA is prepared to enter the war, in those 3-4 turns a 1940 DOW on the CW might gain.

Truth be told, this isn't really part of my plans at all. I was just offering it as an example of what kind of trouble the Japanese might be able to create, if it so desired. I'm not even looking at the Pacific yet. All I've done so far is to send a few air and naval units to Truk. I'll start examining it in greater detail toward the end of this turn and at the beginning of the next.

Point of fact: a low sea box may not be needed on a Surprise impulse. East Timor is just waiting to be taken -- thus the CW units in the Timor Sea at the moment. If all of the CW fleet is stripped away from this area, the Japanese Marines can start from East Timor and invade Australia from the Tasman Sea 3 Box, and even have Shore Bombardment as well. That could be done with a Combined or Naval Action. Next comes a Land Action to take both Canberra (and possibly on to Sydney) and Melbourne. After that, another Combined or Naval action can evacuate them to invade New Zealand or Borneo, or any of a number of places.

Meanwhile, during that first Combined/Naval Action, it's possible that the AMPH and/or TRS (with MAR Corps) can take Batavia, also with Ground Support and Shore Bombardment. That gets the Oil that is so important. This, of course, means I need to start getting those MAR back to a port soon, but that might be possible.

Yes, it might take some luck, but with Australia, New Zealand, and the NEI no longer in their hands, and the USA still not in the war yet (thought it probably would be in a few more turns), what will the CW do? Lie low and continue trying to keep the Med? Or will they try to get back their posessions that the Japanese have taken but not fortified?

[Red Prince]

I'm about to take some big risks in Spain.

Also, with all due respect to Steve, I think I made the right decision in China (see previous page). I now have a 5-factor stack in Chengtu, a 10-factor stack in Chungking, a 6-factor stack due west of Chungking, and the 4-3 MIL NW of Chungking. As the Japanese, I can't get better than a 3:1 attack anywhere, and the very best I could do is a 31:10 on Chungking, which could move up to 4:1 -1, if I succeed in using HQ Support. That would give me a 50% chance of taking the city, but would leave a large number of units disorganized (80% chance).
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Edit: I forgot that using an ENG unit negates the multi-factory -1, so this actually has a 60% chance of success, and a 30% chance to remain organized.
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My other options are to try a 15:4 attack on the MIL unit and a 17:6 attack on the 6-factor stack. Due to the river lines and ZOC of the Chungking stack, even if I wait an impulse, I probably can't do much better than that. These two attacks would risk disorganizing a total of 9 units. The Chungking attack risks disorganizing 11 units. Even if I win both of the other 2 attacks and get disorganized, I'll have nothing left in good position to try for Chungking.

Given that I have all summer to try to conquer China, and I do have some other plans to put in motion that will require either Naval or Combined Actions (East Timor), I think I'm going to make this an impulse of risks and try for Chungking.

Cross your fingers, all (if you are rooting for the Axis). Or laugh in glee (if you are rooting for the Allies). [:D]

The way I figure it, the Chinese retreat did buy at least 2 impulses, and maybe even a full turn. If China is to be conquered (even just Nationalist China), it's going to be bloody, and I can't count on perfect weather every turn. As I've said before, I'm a player who likes to take risks. That creates possibilities for large gains or large failures. In this case, though, a failure (if you can't afford the worst possible result . . . ) is not going to be the end of the world for the Japanese. It will be very annoying, but that's the meaning of "risk".

[Red Prince]

And here are the insane attacks I decided to make this impulse:



And the results:

Attack on Chungking; Assault, Fractional Odds .174 (No), Roll = 5 = 1/2 (ENG destroyed, attackers disorganized) USE-10 (no chit)
Attack on Matruh; Blitz, Fractional Odds .420 (Yes), Roll = 5+2 = 7 = -/1R (2-4 TERR destroyed, attackers disorganized)
Attack on Cartagena; Blitz, Fractional Odds .789 (No), Roll = Automatic = */2B
Attack on Spain [63,23]; Assault, Fractional Odds .500 (Yes), Roll = 7 = 1/2 (7-3 INF destroyed, attackers disorganized)
Attack on Bilbao; Assault, Fractional Odds .570 (Yes), Roll = 8+2 = 10 = */2S

As you can see, I was semi-lucky in China; HQ Support was successful, and the roll did gain the city, but now my Engineer is dead and I have 10 disorganized units there. However, the 2 best remaining Nationalist Chinese units are also dead, and Japan is in control of the capital.

The attack on Matruh, Egypt (which I'll show a little more about in the next post), was actually only made possible by the CW failure in the E. Med during its impulse. Forced to retreat, no Defensive Shore Bombardment was available, while the Italians were able to use 5 Factors to make this attack worthwhile.

The Panzers rolled through Cartagena, and the assault SE of Bilbao was another semi-victory. 6 units ended up disorganized, and a 7-3 white print INF was killed. The reason I chose that unit was because it was the slowest unit and in the least useful position. I can rebuild it at the end of the turn and have a nice white print INF "magically" appear on the border with the USSR at the start of S/O '40 -- and it might not have been able to get back there otherwise

The riskiest (and luckiest) attack, of course, was on Bilbao. Even with 7 defensive factors doubled by the mountain hex to 14 and redoubled by 14 factors of Shore Bombardment to 28, I managed to get close to 3:1 odds by using every Ground Support Factor I could find -- 32 in all. A good Fractional Odds roll, and then a brilliant attack roll left all of the attackers ready for more. This I did not expect, and I'm very happy with the result -- the attack included 5 Oil dependent units, and with my entire air force needing Oil at the end of this turn, it could have been a very dry summer indeed. As it is, I'll probably have to pick and choose which bombers to reorganize when the time comes. But, and this is a big one, Spain is done. Germany can now focus on preparing for an assault on Portugal and Gibraltar, returning troops to Poland, and even potentially trying to take the Azores and/or get some troops over to help in either N. Africa or Egypt.

[Red Prince]

Now for that additional info about the attack in Egypt:


Under that MOT is a MECH unit. I didn't advance either one into the hex I attacked. The reason for this? The best Wavell can do is get to the hex just west of Alexandria, or he could join the remaining Egyptian TERR. If he moves west of Alexandria, he'll be OOS unless the CW can get some ships back into the E. Med, and at the moment, that's going to be a challenge. If he joins the TERR, he risks being put OOS for a long long time.
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Edit: I may be wrong about Wavell heading west of Alexandria . . . as you know, I sometimes have a hard time remembering supply rules.
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So, instead of moving the disorganized units (which I knew would be likely to happen) into the attacked hex, next impulse I can move the MTN and Libyan TERR into that hex instead. Then they can make a 2:1 +2 attack on the TERR. That has an 80% success rate, and only a 10% chance of both units being destoyed. Sure, they'll end up disorganized, but trading 1 TERR which can be rebuilt in Africa for 2 Egyptian TERR seems like a fair exchange to me, particularly since the CW has too much to do with its BP, and even if it tries to rebuild these 2 TERR, there will be a total of 16 to choose from, and that means a minimal chance of these both getting rebuilt.

In the meantime, HQ-A Graziani and another unit can be transported into Egypt if the CW continues to fail, particularly once the new NAVs come into play.

Egypt leads to Palestine and Transjordan, and that leads to the alignment of Iraq (and probably the capture of Syria, too).

For all of you shaking your heads about the attacks I made this impulse, saying, "those were ridiculous risks you took", you're right. But get ready for others to do the same thing once MWiF is released. I suspect a lot of players who have never actually found a group to play with will be doing a lot of things like this. See, we don't know all of the old tricks, and so they are new again.

Isn't there something about that in the Bible? Everything old is new again . . . or some such?

[brian brian]

Long post deleted, beyond noting that it is too hard to watch one side (Kriegsmarine) take risks to shoot at enemy transports while the other side (Royal Navy) won't. The CW should begin fortifying Martinique (seriously) and Montreal (half-seriously, but it seems to be the CW style so far).

World in Flames is a great game of timeless strategy and tactics. The tactics of the game flow from the rule system, and have to be learned, but they do flow from history to a large degree, rewarding combined arms - air/naval; air/ground; armor/infantry, which is, come to think of it, also timeless, think trireme/phalanx, chariot/cavalry/phalanx. Strategy in the game, however, is more purely classic, as well as fairly independent of the game components, and this is why so many people play it I think. I would like to point out to any non-WiF-experienced lurkers reading this that the Axis taking Gibraltar and Chungking in the first year of the war is not an every-game occurrence.

In this game, the CW and China are using poor strategy. The CW has a superior naval force, but is using a strategy of force protection at (almost) all costs, along with poor tactics. Sending inferior forces to fight the Axis (a handful of cruisers in the Med, even a big handful, is not trying), reverses the strategic situation, and the Axis navies have been the superior force with every advantage that entails.

Conversely in China, an inferior force would not use a strategy of force protection until it is now too late.

Be lucky, and all strategy is brilliant. Suffer from bad luck, and good strategy overcomes that.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Long post deleted, beyond noting that it is too hard to watch one side (Kriegsmarine) take risks to shoot at enemy transports while the other side (Royal Navy) won't. The CW should begin fortifying Martinique (seriously) and Montreal (half-seriously, but it seems to be the CW style so far).

World in Flames is a great game of timeless strategy and tactics. The tactics of the game flow from the rule system, and have to be learned, but they do flow from history to a large degree, rewarding combined arms - air/naval; air/ground; armor/infantry, which is, come to think of it, also timeless, think trireme/phalanx, chariot/cavalry/phalanx. Strategy in the game, however, is more purely classic, as well as fairly independent of the game components, and this is why so many people play it I think. I would like to point out to any non-WiF-experienced lurkers reading this that the Axis taking Gibraltar and Chungking in the first year of the war is not an every-game occurrence.

In this game, the CW and China are using poor strategy. The CW has a superior naval force, but is using a strategy of force protection at (almost) all costs, along with poor tactics. Sending inferior forces to fight the Axis (a handful of cruisers in the Med, even a big handful, is not trying), reverses the strategic situation, and the Axis navies have been the superior force with every advantage that entails.

Conversely in China, an inferior force would not use a strategy of force protection until it is now too late.

Be lucky, and all strategy is brilliant. Suffer from bad luck, and good strategy overcomes that.

I agree with that.

WIF is like almost all war games in that the goal is to make overwhelming attacks. When defending, you should use slightly less forces than the attacker can concentrate (e.g., Napoleon at Jena). If the attacker wants to make 2:1 attacks, so be it. For the Egyptians,I would have taken the Assault table. There is a reasonable chance that both attackers would be destroyed. Then let the Italians rebuild the Mechanized and Motorized and transport them over from Italy again (after the requisite delay for them to be built). Meanwhile the territorial has a good chance of reappearing next turn in Egypt at a cost of 2 BP.

Concentration of forces when attacking applies to all branches of the armed forces: air, land, and sea.

The only times the defender should avoid combat are: when faced by the an in-supply Wehrmacht and at sea when lacking air support and the enemy have naval air factors.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Long post deleted, beyond noting that it is too hard to watch one side (Kriegsmarine) take risks to shoot at enemy transports while the other side (Royal Navy) won't. The CW should begin fortifying Martinique (seriously) and Montreal (half-seriously, but it seems to be the CW style so far).

There has been only one occassion when the Royal Navy failed to shoot at enemy transports when it had the chance, and that was "in exchange" for the evacuation of the Barcelona INF going unhindered (which you are all welcome to disagree with). Those transports had to traverse 2 sea areas with CW forces . . . the first was given to them for free, but the second one the CW tried to intercept and failed. What more do you want? Likewise, the Kriegsmarine took advantage of a situation caused by unexpected weather (and a risky move on my part with the CW). Even so, things could have been a lot worse for the CW, as 2 of the 3 TRS escaped unharmed.

World in Flames is a great game of timeless strategy and tactics. The tactics of the game flow from the rule system, and have to be learned, but they do flow from history to a large degree, rewarding combined arms - air/naval; air/ground; armor/infantry, which is, come to think of it, also timeless, think trireme/phalanx, chariot/cavalry/phalanx. Strategy in the game, however, is more purely classic, as well as fairly independent of the game components, and this is why so many people play it I think. I would like to point out to any non-WiF-experienced lurkers reading this that the Axis taking Gibraltar and Chungking in the first year of the war is not an every-game occurrence.

Agreed. However, the European scale map may change some of this in China. There is a lot more territory to defend with the same number of units, and that means fewer opportunities for fully-stacked hexes. MWiF scale may change the dynamics of the game to some degree that we can't know until several hundred games are run by two seperate opponents.

In this game, the CW and China are using poor strategy. The CW has a superior naval force, but is using a strategy of force protection at (almost) all costs, along with poor tactics. Sending inferior forces to fight the Axis (a handful of cruisers in the Med, even a big handful, is not trying), reverses the strategic situation, and the Axis navies have been the superior force with every advantage that entails.

I disagree with much of this, but others might not.

The CW used extremely poor strategy in its setup. Two days later I was hospitalized and delerious with pneumonia. That's my only excuse. Since then, I've been trying to follow (sometimes conflicting) advice from forum members. I was urged to keep the BB near the UK after the transport debacle, so I did. I was then urged to charge into the Med with whatever I had available, so I did. I needed to set up enough Defensive Shore Bombardment to help both Bilbao and Gibraltar, so I did.

At no point did I send a force up against the Italians that was unable to take them on successfully.

The CW has gotten rotten rolls for the most part in its battles at sea. Is that poor strategy? No. It's bad luck. Is it a poor tactical decision to abort a force from a sea area once it is outgunned and unlikely to damage the opponent without being destroyed? I don't thinks so, but maybe I'm wrong. If I stay to fight to the death every time the CW is in that situation, perhaps I'll damage an Italian cruiser, but when do you draw the line? At some point the losses will add up so that the CW no longer has Naval superiority anywhere.

The only real "cheat" I've used is setting up the situation that allowed Yugoslavia to be aligned by Italy, and that only required the USSR to claim Bessarabia. This should not have had any effect on the naval war. Is it possible I am simply playing a good (and lucky) game with the Italian and German fleets?

The errors that I can be accused of making idiotically are the move of forces into Gibraltar too early, but I've already explained why the BEF couldn't enter France when it "should have" -- a bug that wouldn't allow Gort and company to debark (since fixed). The other ones are poor setups in China (which I took from a post by Steve -- sorry to lay the blame on you, Steve, but my setups never seem to stop the Japanese either) and placing the wrong unit in Tangier.

Conversely in China, an inferior force would not use a strategy of force protection until it is now too late.

As far as this goes, until the last impulse, I have taken the defenses for France and China directly from suggestions found in this forum, so you can't blame this problem on inexperience. By the time I did choose a defensive position that was considered "wrong" by forum members, it was already too late for the Nationalists. And taking Chungking was only acheived by a major sacrifice on the part of the Japanese.

Be lucky, and all strategy is brilliant. Suffer from bad luck, and good strategy overcomes that.

I'll counter this with: Take risks and get lucky, and all strategy is brilliant. Suffer from extremely bad luck, and good strategy can't do a damn thing to help.

I apologize if this post sounds harsh, but I'm doing my best to play both sides well. I'm also doing my best to follow the advice of the forum members who post here. Sorry to say this, but even if the advice is good, it isn't always going to work.

I've noted an interesting fact, though: most of the advice has been for playing the Allied side of things. Does this mean you approve of the way I play the Axis?