MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Long post deleted, beyond noting that it is too hard to watch one side (Kriegsmarine) take risks to shoot at enemy transports while the other side (Royal Navy) won't. The CW should begin fortifying Martinique (seriously) and Montreal (half-seriously, but it seems to be the CW style so far).

World in Flames is a great game of timeless strategy and tactics. The tactics of the game flow from the rule system, and have to be learned, but they do flow from history to a large degree, rewarding combined arms - air/naval; air/ground; armor/infantry, which is, come to think of it, also timeless, think trireme/phalanx, chariot/cavalry/phalanx. Strategy in the game, however, is more purely classic, as well as fairly independent of the game components, and this is why so many people play it I think. I would like to point out to any non-WiF-experienced lurkers reading this that the Axis taking Gibraltar and Chungking in the first year of the war is not an every-game occurrence.

In this game, the CW and China are using poor strategy. The CW has a superior naval force, but is using a strategy of force protection at (almost) all costs, along with poor tactics. Sending inferior forces to fight the Axis (a handful of cruisers in the Med, even a big handful, is not trying), reverses the strategic situation, and the Axis navies have been the superior force with every advantage that entails.

Conversely in China, an inferior force would not use a strategy of force protection until it is now too late.

Be lucky, and all strategy is brilliant. Suffer from bad luck, and good strategy overcomes that.

I agree with that.

WIF is like almost all war games in that the goal is to make overwhelming attacks. When defending, you should use slightly less forces than the attacker can concentrate (e.g., Napoleon at Jena). If the attacker wants to make 2:1 attacks, so be it. For the Egyptians,I would have taken the Assault table. There is a reasonable chance that both attackers would be destroyed. Then let the Italians rebuild the Mechanized and Motorized and transport them over from Italy again (after the requisite delay for them to be built). Meanwhile the territorial has a good chance of reappearing next turn in Egypt at a cost of 2 BP.

Concentration of forces when attacking applies to all branches of the armed forces: air, land, and sea.

The only times the defender should avoid combat are: when faced by the an in-supply Wehrmacht and at sea when lacking air support and the enemy have naval air factors.

The CW didn't have the choice of CRT, the Italians did because of the MECH.

And, please recall that the CW has no Naval Air Factors in the Med. When it did, the bad luck eliminated them.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

The attack in Egypt by the Italians was premature. They should have waited for the other 2 units to join in the combat. That way they would have had a territorial available to take a loss.

I can't comment on the other attacks. That would require having the entire board at my disposal and being able to analyze every stack for choosing which hexes to attack and which units to include in the attacks. I doubt that any of the forum readers can seriously critique most of the attacks without doing the same. Defense involves fewer units, which are visible. Hence the preponderance of comments about defending vis-a-vis land operations.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Someone suggested hoping for luck in surprise points against the NAV in the E. Med (for the CW).

Well, I tried it, and here were the results:

CW initiates combat in the E. Med, using CA Devonshire; Allied Roll: 1, Axis: 7
.....Italy chooses Naval Air Combat, CW uses 6 Surprise Points to Increase AA Columns
.....AA Rolls: 2, 1 (reduction of 1 Air-to-Sea Factor)
.....Italy Aborts CA Liverpool

With any luck at all, the -1/2 (lowest of 2 rolls) should have either eliminated both Air-to-Sea Factors of the NAV or Aborted it from combat. Guess what? I'm starting to think the CW doesn't want to keep the Med. I let this attempt go on for a total of 4 combat rounds, and the CW didn't get lucky again. In fact, the Axis didn't fail to find again, while the CW only found in 1 more round. After the first round (failure by the CW to eliminate the NAV), the Axis was able to use its Surprise Points to clear the NAV through without AA fire.

Final results:

Italy was completely undamaged by the attack . . . and managed to damage/abort a CA and abort 4 others, leaving only 4 sea-worthy ships remaining.

So, the CW was forced to abort to Suez or risk losing even more ships. If it stayed, it would have had 9 Surface Factors on 6 ships (-X/1D/3A) vs. 18 Surface Factors on 4 ships (1X/-D/1A) or 2 unstoppable Air-to-Sea Factors on 4 ships (-X/-D/2A), so the only hope of salvaging any kind of victory required search rolls that gave the CW at least 4 Surprise Points to use to choose the combat type. That seemed unlikely.

I tried, with what I had available, but failed. You can say a lot of things about my game as the CW, but you can't say I didn't try.
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Edit: Correction: the CW aborted to Port Said, not to Suez, since Suez is not a Major Port

You should have spent 4 surprise point by the CW to select the combat type. You had to choose a surface combat and aim those large guns on enemy ships in stead of aiming them at enemy aircraft...

[brian brian]

I haven't seen a single BB or CV of the Royal Navy's in the Med, just lots of cruisers = inferior force. I can't see the whole game, but a poor set-up can be fixed in a single naval impulse, to a nearly global degree, and it's now the 4th turn. When the Royal Navy fought in the North Sea, it sent out 2 BB, again an inferior force. The Royal Navy has a superior force overall, but seems to refuse to fight with local superiority, which it can easily achieve against the Euro-Axis, though this is challenging when operating on exterior lines compared to interior lines (not basing sufficient capital ships in Gibraltar is just not good). Just this turn the RN refused to sail from Plymouth to the West Med and sent the Spanish instead, yet another inferior force. A superior force could handle a bad roll or two as BBs have defense factors that can take bad luck, CA's don't. The RN is also repeatedly fighting last turn's war. There is no value to the North Sea any more except as a trip-wire to discourage Kriegsmarine raids and just a couple-three-four BBs can cover Bilbao, perhaps with one CV or enough AA cruisers to discourage the German NAV-3, that should leave the BattleCruisers, several CVs and even a few R Class BBs in a lower box to contest the West Med with. Instead the Home Fleet mostly sat home waiting for the "perfect" battle opportunity and will soon be holding on for dear life in the Atlantic. The Axis hold Tangier and won't be dislodged. Gibraltar is doomed.

Here is what I deleted on China:

I have never wrestled with a decision about surrendering China because I don't find it so difficult to defend the place. I think this applies on either scale map, for any experienced paper-WiF players aghast at these Chinese results on the new scale. I have not watched the Chinese manuever much on the screen-shots beyond a few glances, but I do not think they tried defending with double stacks in the mountains, as was suggested by several of us early on. China needs to do that, as well as picking the Blitz table whenever they have a retreat route, which is largely under their control as they manuever their land units. They should retreat whenever necessary to have a retreat route, and before the Japanese get their maximum possible attack built-up, which should be slow in mountains while they also take occasional combined impulses to reinforce in China. Instead I think they held in too-forward positions and lost their units in non-essential areas (Fukien in general) faster than they could replace them, as well as picking the Assault table in a higher-risk choice of hoping to disorganize the Japanese while still losing their single units at high odds. Their HQs and oil also need to remain behind the front, retreating and preserving themselves and allowing the regular combat forces to stay in supply while they retreat. The Chinese have such excellent defensive terrain that they shouldn't just crumple like this; all of the preceding would be a force protection strategy, rather than a gamble and hope the Japanese roll low type choice. The Chinese are weak and need to be conservative until their forces grow in size.

Your Axis have been playing well, this game featured a better USE management of at least DOWing Greece in J/F 40, though the Allies have been playing directly into their hands over and over by ceding control of the seas and generally defending rear areas where the Axis will be next year (Polynesia?) rather than front-line areas where the Axis is today. Australia looks threatened to you now because you spent perhaps 20 BPs on offensive units (they'll wish they had AMPHs soon) for the CW, rather than sufficient heavy ground troops (INF, MOT), when the Axis are surging across the map.

[Centuur]

Always, the right Generals and Admirals are sitting on there asses, drinking tea and aren't in command. You however, are the one in command of the CW forces. It isn't necessary for you to make excuses, since you've pronounced yourself to be an newbie on the WiF gameboard.

I've come to the conclusion that the mistakes (of which especially the losses of CW controlled TRS are really hurting the Allied cause) you have made are the ones a new player makes. That's the reason why new players should always start playing Axis countries (and not Allied ones), since they usually are better with attacking than with defending. By doing so, the new player learns how things are going and is also capable of seeing how especially the CW is played. The CW is by far the most difficult MP to play.

I see you are constantly exploiting advantages on the Axis side. However, you fail to see the same advantages on the allied side. This is due to the fact that you are very worried about the loss of units. Why for example are you so worried about losses to the Spanish fleet? You shouldn't be, since this worry means you're constantly moving away from fighting the enemy and therefore giving to much room for the Axis to exploit the situation. You should try to stand ground, throw cheap units in the path of the Germans, attacking key units (especially TRS). There is always a 50% possibility of the Axis not finding you're Spanish fleet in the Western Med. What if they are killed? Is it hurting the CW war effort if Franco's fleet is going to die? I don't think so.
Look at the post you have written about the Japanese attacking Australia in the surprise impulse. Let him do so, if he can. Trust me, you need oil first with Japan, before he is able to do all kinds of things in regards of attacking Australia. So no invasions in surprise impulses in Australia. If the Japanese do so, he'll get in trouble later, since it isn't easy to invade the oil hexes without a surprise impulse.
The problem is that the longer you keep playing this way, the faster the CW is going to get weaker and weaker. Both China and France are examples of how the Axis can slowly demolish the key forces necessary for a reasonable defense (I'm not saying a defense which can hold against the enemy). The CW is suffering from this too.

Regarding the attacks the Axis made last impulse: I think they are extremely lucky here, even with all those disorganised units appearing on the map. There are going to be some promotions of Generals to Fieldmarshalls, I believe. The Bilbao attack I might have done an impulse later, getting more units in place. Chungking I would have attacked this impulse, looking at the defenses the Chinese had in place. I like to gamble a little bit (but not as much as you did). The Italian attack in Egypt was foolish and could have been very, very costly for them. Lucky bastards. Don't ever do that again, since there comes a time when luck is going against you and loosing a MOT and a MECH is very, very bloody for the Italians...

Oh, the Japanese are the ones to DoW Portugal, aren't they...

[composer99]

Generally, I think your Axis play has been strong, aided in part by your weaker Allied play. To be fair, the CW is comparatively very hard to play with its global reach but also the need to build up an army and air force essentially from scratch, the need to defend far-flung convoy lines, and the need to balance early offensive and defensive builds.

I also won't complain about low-odds attacks. It's hard to get "good" (in terms of probability of success + staying organized) attacks on the 1d10 Assault CRT, compared to the CRT I play with (the 2d10), especially against city hexes in mountains. Really, as long as you have the losses to suffer a worst-case result, any land attack is acceptable. He who dares, wins, and all that.

The naval game is also very difficult to master and can be subject to wild swings. The addition of CLiF units tends to favour the Axis IMO since they reduce the relative Allied advantage in numbers while giving the Axis more cannon fodder to keep their BBs and sealift in play.

Things have not been helped by the bugs which occured, which IMO also favoured the Axis - the Gort debark bug, the Malta bug forcing the relocation of the CW defences, and what I understand is a bug remaining preventing Allied resource/bp lending overseas?

I think one way of getting on top of the CW's naval and garrison issues is to take a break for a day or two, then to come back and look at the map with an eye to where the CW needs to have land & air units and to allocate naval assets, with the goal of having a force in each theatre/area of operations equal to 150% of the available comparable Axis forces.

Australia may seem defenceless at the moment, and for good reason: in 1939-1940 it has two regular land units (one of which must be built) and two TERR, which may or may not ever appear in a game. 1941 adds but one additional Aussie unit to the force pool. However, as long as one of these units is on the map and blocking the routes to Canberra the Japanese need to field a real army to conquer Australia. Reinforcing Australia is a good place for American infantry units which aren't quality enough to go to Europe or to be used for offensives in the Pacific (or just as a staging ground for the American forces pushing through along the southern perimeter of the Pacific).

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Someone suggested hoping for luck in surprise points against the NAV in the E. Med (for the CW).

Well, I tried it, and here were the results:

CW initiates combat in the E. Med, using CA Devonshire; Allied Roll: 1, Axis: 7
.....Italy chooses Naval Air Combat, CW uses 6 Surprise Points to Increase AA Columns
.....AA Rolls: 2, 1 (reduction of 1 Air-to-Sea Factor)
.....Italy Aborts CA Liverpool

With any luck at all, the -1/2 (lowest of 2 rolls) should have either eliminated both Air-to-Sea Factors of the NAV or Aborted it from combat. Guess what? I'm starting to think the CW doesn't want to keep the Med. I let this attempt go on for a total of 4 combat rounds, and the CW didn't get lucky again. In fact, the Axis didn't fail to find again, while the CW only found in 1 more round. After the first round (failure by the CW to eliminate the NAV), the Axis was able to use its Surprise Points to clear the NAV through without AA fire.

Final results:

Italy was completely undamaged by the attack . . . and managed to damage/abort a CA and abort 4 others, leaving only 4 sea-worthy ships remaining.

So, the CW was forced to abort to Suez or risk losing even more ships. If it stayed, it would have had 9 Surface Factors on 6 ships (-X/1D/3A) vs. 18 Surface Factors on 4 ships (1X/-D/1A) or 2 unstoppable Air-to-Sea Factors on 4 ships (-X/-D/2A), so the only hope of salvaging any kind of victory required search rolls that gave the CW at least 4 Surprise Points to use to choose the combat type. That seemed unlikely.

I tried, with what I had available, but failed. You can say a lot of things about my game as the CW, but you can't say I didn't try.
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Edit: Correction: the CW aborted to Port Said, not to Suez, since Suez is not a Major Port

You should have spent 4 surprise point by the CW to select the combat type. You had to choose a surface combat and aim those large guns on enemy ships in stead of aiming them at enemy aircraft...

You're probably right, but I wanted to test out the suggestion. Hindsight, you know. If that NAV had been aborted or shot down, surface combats would have continued.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I haven't seen a single BB or CV of the Royal Navy's in the Med, just lots of cruisers = inferior force. I can't see the whole game, but a poor set-up can be fixed in a single naval impulse, to a nearly global degree, and it's now the 4th turn.

Not when the setup was as bad as the one I started with, and also not when you are trying to satisfy as many suggestions as possible. I had my BB fleet at Gibraltar and was told I needed to move it back to Plymouth after the TRS debacle. So I did.

When the Royal Navy fought in the North Sea, it sent out 2 BB, again an inferior force.

You are mistaken. The RN fought in the North Sea defensively and unexpectedly in bad weather -- during the first impulse of a turn before it was able to reinstate its full fleet -- with several useless CV because of the weather, a few BB, and some cruisers. The Germans got lucky and got to pick the TRS. Then, when they stuck around, the entire BB fleet of 8-9 ships was sent to destroy the Germans. And failed. That isn't my fault.

And, the reason you haven't seen a CV in the Med is because there haven't been adequate CVP to load onto them. Why send a CV out without any planes? Please make sure of your facts before criticizing my gameplay.

The Royal Navy has a superior force overall, but seems to refuse to fight with local superiority, which it can easily achieve against the Euro-Axis, though this is challenging when operating on exterior lines compared to interior lines (not basing sufficient capital ships in Gibraltar is just not good).

As above, I did base them there, and was then told I needed to send them back to Plymouth. I can't satisfy everyone at once.

Just this turn the RN refused to sail from Plymouth to the West Med and sent the Spanish instead, yet another inferior force.

What ships were to be used? The BB needed to be in the Bay of Biscay to support Bilbao. Besides, sailing them from Plymouth to the W. Med puts them in the 1 Box, where they have to be extremely lucky to be included in a combat.

A superior force could handle a bad roll or two as BBs have defense factors that can take bad luck, CA's don't. The RN is also repeatedly fighting last turn's war. There is no value to the North Sea any more except as a trip-wire to discourage Kriegsmarine raids and just a couple-three-four BBs can cover Bilbao, perhaps with one CV or enough AA cruisers to discourage the German NAV-3, that should leave the BattleCruisers, several CVs and even a few R Class BBs in a lower box to contest the West Med with. Instead the Home Fleet mostly sat home waiting for the "perfect" battle opportunity and will soon be holding on for dear life in the Atlantic. The Axis hold Tangier and won't be dislodged. Gibraltar is doomed.

You are mistaken again. It took 7 BB to supply enough Shore Bombardment to make Bilbao a risky attack. I am not fighting last turn's war. The North Sea fleet has 9 ships in it at this point, and those are there to prevent a Sea Lion. The Bay of Biscay also needs to be protected from the 4 SUBs the Italians have in Bordeaux, and the Cape St. Vincent needs protection from the SUBs, too. There are currently too many ships in Cape St. Vincent, including CVs, because I am trying to get the fleet you want to the Med. Range and movement point limitations have made that difficult.

Here is what I deleted on China:

I have never wrestled with a decision about surrendering China because I don't find it so difficult to defend the place. I think this applies on either scale map, for any experienced paper-WiF players aghast at these Chinese results on the new scale. I have not watched the Chinese manuever much on the screen-shots beyond a few glances, but I do not think they tried defending with double stacks in the mountains, as was suggested by several of us early on. China needs to do that, as well as picking the Blitz table whenever they have a retreat route, which is largely under their control as they manuever their land units. They should retreat whenever necessary to have a retreat route, and before the Japanese get their maximum possible attack built-up, which should be slow in mountains while they also take occasional combined impulses to reinforce in China. Instead I think they held in too-forward positions and lost their units in non-essential areas (Fukien in general) faster than they could replace them, as well as picking the Assault table in a higher-risk choice of hoping to disorganize the Japanese while still losing their single units at high odds. Their HQs and oil also need to remain behind the front, retreating and preserving themselves and allowing the regular combat forces to stay in supply while they retreat. The Chinese have such excellent defensive terrain that they shouldn't just crumple like this; all of the preceding would be a force protection strategy, rather than a gamble and hope the Japanese roll low type choice. The Chinese are weak and need to be conservative until their forces grow in size.

Two comments:

1. The initial setup was bad. That led to other problems.
2. If the Chinese double-stack on the European scale map, the Japanese could easily out-maneuver them. Have you played a game with the new scale map? (that's a real question -- not sarcasm) If not, try it and see what it's like.

Your Axis have been playing well, this game featured a better USE management of at least DOWing Greece in J/F 40, though the Allies have been playing directly into their hands over and over by ceding control of the seas and generally defending rear areas where the Axis will be next year (Polynesia?) rather than front-line areas where the Axis is today. Australia looks threatened to you now because you spent perhaps 20 BPs on offensive units (they'll wish they had AMPHs soon) for the CW, rather than sufficient heavy ground troops (INF, MOT), when the Axis are surging across the map.

For the record, I corrected my CW builds from last game. Everyone wants something different, and I can't satisfy everyone. I'm sorry your view didn't take hold.

I also think your "ceding control of the seas" comment is a little out of context. The only seas that have been "lost" are in the Med. If you are beaten at sea, is it ceding control? Or is it a defeat? For land units in Southeast Asia, see the posts earlier about those. I'm not going to repeat myself. And, with a limited number of transports (please get over the fact that I should have two more -- I don't, so deal with it), how am I supposed to reinforce everything that needs to be reinforced?

And, I will ask you this: do you really think that the 4 ships in French Polynesia would have made the difference in any of these battles?

If I spent the BP on AMPHs, you'd be complaining that I should have built more land units; if I spent more on land units, you'd be complaining about the lack of AMPHs. Yes, they'll wish they had them soon, but wishes are just that. If I had 30 BP to spend each turn from the start of the game, maybe I could have built everything you want built.
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Until now, you've had some very constructive comments. I'm doing the best I can with a game that isn't completely bug-free, and with the advice I've been given. As someone mentioned before (Centuur, I think), it's hard for me to maintain a consistent naval strategy when I am inundated with things that need to be done ASAP, without the resources to do it.

I've created this AAR so that people can enjoy a view of the game, and so that they can see that it can be played through to completion, not to demonstrate that I am an expert player. It has been fun for me, and I welcome criticism, but I don't welcome abuse, and this disagreement is beginning to feel like abuse. If you don't agree with my gameplay, suggest something useful for current and future impulses, but please stop telling me how stupid I've been up to this point.

If it is really annoying you (my previous playing), take a break from it. Come back in a few days and see if you like it any better.

Three final notes:

1. Please re-read post #1 on page 1 of this AAR. It describes the goals I began with.
2. If the Axis had been less successful, things would not seem so urgent.
3. Frankly, I think I've planned and played the Axis extremely well so far, and combined with extremely bad luck for the Allies, the CW is bound to be in a fearful position.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Regarding the attacks the Axis made last impulse: I think they are extremely lucky here, even with all those disorganised units appearing on the map. There are going to be some promotions of Generals to Fieldmarshalls, I believe. The Bilbao attack I might have done an impulse later, getting more units in place. Chungking I would have attacked this impulse, looking at the defenses the Chinese had in place. I like to gamble a little bit (but not as much as you did). The Italian attack in Egypt was foolish and could have been very, very costly for them. Lucky bastards. Don't ever do that again, since there comes a time when luck is going against you and loosing a MOT and a MECH is very, very bloody for the Italians...

A 3:1 +2 Blitz attack had only a 20% chance of losing 1 unit. If I waited another impulse, the CW would have had Defensive Shore Bombardment in place, and I would never have had even this good an opportunity again -- even if I left it until next turn when HQ-I Graziani and the Rome MIL might manage to get into the battle.

I still don't see it as foolish. Even if I had lost the MOT, I felt it was the right opportunity to begin clearing the path toward Wavell . . . before the CW can bring in reinforcements.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Generally, I think your Axis play has been strong, aided in part by your weaker Allied play. To be fair, the CW is comparatively very hard to play with its global reach but also the need to build up an army and air force essentially from scratch, the need to defend far-flung convoy lines, and the need to balance early offensive and defensive builds.

I also won't complain about low-odds attacks. It's hard to get "good" (in terms of probability of success + staying organized) attacks on the 1d10 Assault CRT, compared to the CRT I play with (the 2d10), especially against city hexes in mountains. Really, as long as you have the losses to suffer a worst-case result, any land attack is acceptable. He who dares, wins, and all that.

The naval game is also very difficult to master and can be subject to wild swings. The addition of CLiF units tends to favour the Axis IMO since they reduce the relative Allied advantage in numbers while giving the Axis more cannon fodder to keep their BBs and sealift in play.

Things have not been helped by the bugs which occured, which IMO also favoured the Axis - the Gort debark bug, the Malta bug forcing the relocation of the CW defences, and what I understand is a bug remaining preventing Allied resource/bp lending overseas?

I think one way of getting on top of the CW's naval and garrison issues is to take a break for a day or two, then to come back and look at the map with an eye to where the CW needs to have land & air units and to allocate naval assets, with the goal of having a force in each theatre/area of operations equal to 150% of the available comparable Axis forces.

Australia may seem defenceless at the moment, and for good reason: in 1939-1940 it has two regular land units (one of which must be built) and two TERR, which may or may not ever appear in a game. 1941 adds but one additional Aussie unit to the force pool. However, as long as one of these units is on the map and blocking the routes to Canberra the Japanese need to field a real army to conquer Australia. Reinforcing Australia is a good place for American infantry units which aren't quality enough to go to Europe or to be used for offensives in the Pacific (or just as a staging ground for the American forces pushing through along the southern perimeter of the Pacific).

You're right about the first two bugs being in the favor of the Axis, but the 3rd one hasn't yet come into play -- the Entry Options aren't available yet. By the time they do come into play, it is possible this bug may be fixed. I don't know. The solution is known, but Steve has higher priorities at the moment. By the way, this is only a BP bug, not a RP bug. Those arrive as intended.

Again, for the record: the Australia scenario was/is not a serious proposal. It was simply to demonstrate one of the annoying things that can occur if the CW abandons all of its Far-East posessions when China is on the verge of collapse.
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Almost forgot to say this, but I did take about 4 days off, not looking at the game at all. Apparently it didn't help. [;)]

[Klydon]

Hang in there Aaron.

Honestly, I think its a good sign the AAR has gotten so much attention and people are "in to it" as far as advice/critisim. While I agree some posters need to remember their place and be a bit more courteous, sometimes it is very hard to do that in the heat of a campaign when things are going hot and heavy. It is exciting to see the game up to this point as it shows what progress has been made and the possiblities of the game make everyone itch to get their hands on it.

I think one of the things that people are overlooking is just how bad the CW's naval battle luck has been. I don't recall a die roll that has gone their way yet really and the Axis have had more than their share of luck when it comes to the naval actions. Such results are going to understandibly put the RN under even more severe pressure than normal. Add to the fact that the French fleet is no longer around to help out, the RN is in the "stand alone" phase of the game and their CV air just sucks horribly at this point. It takes awhile to fix.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Hang in there Aaron.

Honestly, I think its a good sign the AAR has gotten so much attention and people are "in to it" as far as advice/critisim. While I agree some posters need to remember their place and be a bit more courteous, sometimes it is very hard to do that in the heat of a campaign when things are going hot and heavy. It is exciting to see the game up to this point as it shows what progress has been made and the possiblities of the game make everyone itch to get their hands on it.

I think one of the things that people are overlooking is just how bad the CW's naval battle luck has been. I don't recall a die roll that has gone their way yet really and the Axis have had more than their share of luck when it comes to the naval actions. Such results are going to understandibly put the RN under even more severe pressure than normal. Add to the fact that the French fleet is no longer around to help out, the RN is in the "stand alone" phase of the game and their CV air just sucks horribly at this point. It takes awhile to fix.

Thanks you for your supportive perspective, not only on the difficulties with the CW & French fleets, but also on the enthusiasm this AAR generates. I do understand that given the chance, others might do things differently.

I also want to say that to in order to run 2-3 impulses, including notes and screenshots and comments on my actions, it takes between 6 and 7 hours in all. By the end of this time (and the beta-testers know this about me, so I should probably tell you guys, too) I tend to be very tired. When I'm tired, I get cranky. I apologize for that.

I'm going to attempt to look up in my notes (which total 33 pages and 13,000 words for 4 1/2 turns) as much as I can find about the French and CW fleet actions that led us to this point. If it is easy enough to do, I will post it shortly.

[Red Prince]

I'm afraid I don't have die rolls for every round of combat, nor do I have the exact number of ships on each side. That is not needed for the debugging I do with this information. The best I can do is show you what happened and offer a summary for each battle.

S/O '39

Impulse: 3
.....Weather: 3
.....Italy DOW France (Surprise)
Italy initiates combat in the W. Med, using CL Diaz; no Air Support; Axis Roll: 3, Allies: 6; Italy includes 3 & 4 Sections
.....Italy has 10 Surprise Points to spend: 8 go toward Increasing Columns, 2 go toward Decreasing Columns
.....Italy Destroys CL Jeanne D'Arc, CA Suffren, CA Algerie, Aborts BB Lorraine, BB Jean Bart, 1/2 Aborts BB Provence, BB Bretagne
.....France Damages CL Diaz, Aborts CL Attendolo
.....Italy chooses to Fight On; France chooses to Abort from Combat
.....Italy aborts its 2 units to La Spezia; France aborts its 5 units to Marseilles
Italy initiates combat in the Italian Coast using CL Taranto; no Air Support; Axis Roll: 2, Allies: 8
.....Italy has 12 Surprise Points to spend: 8 go toward Increasing Columns, 4 go toward Decreasing Columns
.....Italy Destroys CA Duguay Trouin, CL Emile Bertin, CL Gloire, Damage-1/2 Aborts CL La Galissonniere, 1/2 Aborts BB Strasbourg, BB Dunkerque
.....France Damage/Aborts CL Taranto
.....Italy chooses to Fight On; France chooses to Abort from Combat
.....Italy aborts its 1 unit to La Spezia; France aborts its 8 units through the W. Med; Italy attempts to Intercept using CL Cadorna; Roll: 3 (Success)
France must fight through from the 0 Box; Allied Roll: 4
.....Italy has 8 Surprise Points to spend: 4 go toward Increasing Columns, 4 go toward Decreasing Columns
.....Italy Destroyed CL La Galissonniere, CL Georges Leygues, Damaged CA Foch
.....France Damaged CL Cadorna (CL Barbiano instead due to bug fix)
.....Italy chooses to Fight On; France chooses to Abort from Combat
.....Italy aborts its 1 unit to La Spezia; France aborts its 6 units to Malta (due to the bug issue)

German SS Div takes Copenhagen, 6-4 INF takes Frederikshavn (CP captured, both CA escaped to Scapa Flow)
German 6-5 MOT moves W to Isolate the NED INF, allowing the 8-6 ARM in Essen to overrun it and circle the coast all the way to Rotterdam (2 CP captured, 1 destroyed, 2 escaped to Liverpool, TRS destroyed, SUB escaped to Liverpool)

Results
Germany:
Destroys: 1 x Convoy, 1 x TRS
Captures 3 x Convoy

Italy:
Destroys 5 x CL, 3 x CA
Damages 1 x CL, 1 x CA

France:
Damages 3 x CL
Aborts 1 x CL

All French ships remaining Aborted from Combat


Impulse: 5
.....Weather: 6
.....Italy DOW CW (Surprise)
Italy invades Malta (Automatic)
Attack on Malta (Automatic); French ships in port: BB & CL Destroyed, 2 CA Escaped to Marseilles, BB Dunkurque Captured by Italy

Results
Italy:
Destroys 1 x CL, 1 x BB
Captures 1 x BB

2 x French CA escaped to Mareilles


Impulse: 7
CW initiates combat in the Red Sea, using CL Coventry; Allied Roll: 2, Axis: 9
.....CW Destroys Italian CP
CW initiates combat in E. Med, using CL Dragon; Allied Roll; 5, Axis: 3; Both searches succeed (?), 3 & 4 Boxes included
.....Italy chooses Naval Air Combat, spends 2 Surprise Points to Increase Columns
.....Italy Damages French CA Montcalm, CW CL Capetown
.....Both sides choose to Fight On; Allied Roll: 7, Axis: 8; Both searches failed
.....France aborts CA to Beirut, CW aborts CL to Suez
CW chooses No Combat in W. Med

Results
Italy:
Damages 1 x French CA, 1 x CW CL

CW:
Destorys 1 x Convoy


Impulse: 9
.....Weather: 5
Italy chooses No Combat in the E. Med
Italy initiates combat in the W. Med, using CL Cadorna; Axis Roll: 4, Allies: 1; both succeed, 4 Box included
.....CW spends 2 Surprise Points to Decrease Columns
.....Italy Destroys CL Colombo, Damages CL Delhi
.....CW Destroys CL Montecuccoli
.....Both sides choose to Fight On; Axis Roll: 6, Allies: 2; Allies include all Boxes, spend 4 Surprise Points to Avoid Combat
.....CW aborts CL to Gibraltar

Results
Italy:
Destroys 1 x CL
Damages 1 x CL

CW:
Damages 1 x CL

S/O '39 Summary
Losses
Germany: None
Italy: 1 x CL, 1 x Convoy Destroyed; 4 x CL Damaged
France: 6 x CL, 3 x CA, 1 x BB Destroyd; 1 x CL, 2 x CA Damaged; 1 x BB Captured by Italy
CW: 1 x CL, 1 x Convoy, 1 x TRS Destroyed; 2 x CL Damaged, 3 x Convoy Captured by Germany

Axis Destroyed Allied Naval Units: 7 x CL, 3 x CA, 1 x BB, 1 x Convoy, 1 x TRS
Axis Damaged Allied Naval Units: 3 x CL, 2 x CA
Axis Captured Allied Naval Units: 1 x BB, 3 x Convoy

Allied Destroyed Axis Naval Units: 1 x CL, 1 x Convoy
Allied Damaged Axis Naval Units: 4 x CL
-----
In just the first turn alone, the Axis ratio of Naval Units removed from play was 22 to 6, including most of the French fleet due to the Surprise impulse and a lot of luck.

Should I bother working up summaries of the next 3 turns? Or does this help explain why the CW is in such trouble now?

I will work up summaries, but I won't give the full details of each battle. I'll simply do a summary for each turn, since this post is very long, indeed (unless you really want to see what happened). Once I've done that, I'll give you a full summary of all naval issues from S/O '39 to the current impulse. I think, that even though you can't see the specific die rolls for each "Damage Risk", that you can see the tendancy toward terrible luck for the Allies.

[Centuur]

You've committed the whole French fleet in the first impulse. That's normally not a very wise move. It is better to use a small fleet to trigger an Italian attack and have a slightely bigger one sitting in port to wait what happens. If the Italians DoW you, you than are faced with a first attack on the first fleet. Statitically in a surprise impulse, that fleet will take a beating and will have to abort (except when the Italians don't find you). Next impulse: move the reserve fleet into the area and start gunning without a surprise impulse giving the Italians all kind of nasty advantages.

Yes, there was bad luck occuring. However, you have to agree that that isn't the only thing which made life miserable for the French fleet in the first impulse of war with Italy. By the way: keep up the good work. I'm still loving how things are looking...

By the way, I don't want to give the impression I'm a little abusive toward you. That isn't my intention at all. If that happens, start shouting at me (but by PM please...).[:D]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

You've committed the whole French fleet in the first impulse. That's normally not a very wise move. It is better to use a small fleet to trigger an Italian attack and have a slightely bigger one sitting in port to wait what happens. If the Italians DoW you, you than are faced with a first attack on the first fleet. Statitically in a surprise impulse, that fleet will take a beating and will have to abort (except when the Italians don't find you). Next impulse: move the reserve fleet into the area and start gunning without a surprise impulse giving the Italians all kind of nasty advantages.

Yes, there was bad luck occuring. However, you have to agree that that isn't the only thing which made life miserable for the French fleet in the first impulse of war with Italy. By the way: keep up the good work. I'm still loving how things are looking...

By the way, I don't want to give the impression I'm a little abusive toward you. That isn't my intention at all. If that happens, start shouting at me (but by PM please...).[:D]

This was utterly and entirely my fault -- due to inexperience, but see the next post for further details. [:)]

[Red Prince]

In the following summaries, I will add one important factor: the number of times the Allies attempted to initiate combat, but failed to do so -- which is another indicator of bad luck.

N/D '39 Summary
Failed combat initiations: 2

Losses
Germany: None
Italy: None
France: 1 x CA, 1 x BB Destroyed; 1 x CA Damaged; 1 x CA, 1 x BB Captured by Italy
CW: 1 x CL Damaged, 2 x CL Aborted

Axis Destroyed Allied Naval Units: 1 x CA, 1 x BB
Axis Damaged Allied Naval Units: 1 x CL, 1 x CA
Axis Captured Allied Naval Units: 1 x CA, 1 x BB

Allied Destroyed Axis Naval Units: None
Allied Damaged Axis Naval Units: None
-----
This was a semi-short turn, and the damage done to the fleets in the first turn had to be corrected. Therefore, in the 3 Allied impulses, there were few opportnites to make attacks that made sense.

The N/D '39 ratio of Naval Units removed from play was again in favor of the Axis, 6 to 0 . . . cumulative totals: 28 to 6.
-----
J/F '40 Summary
Failed combat initiations: 0
.....Hoever, there was essentially 1 failed initiation:
CW initiates combat in North Sea, using CA Hawkins; CW sends FTR (Hurricane) to the 1 Box; Germany sends NAV to the 2 Box; Allied Roll: 10, Axis: 2
.....Germany selects the 3 Box only, spends 4 Surprise Points to Avoid Combat

Losses
Germany: 2 x CL Damaged
Italy: None
France: None
CW: 1 x CL Destroyed; 3 x CL Aborted

Axis Destroyed Allied Naval Units: 1 x CL
Axis Damaged Allied Naval Units: None
Axis Captured Allied Naval Units: None

Allied Destroyed Axis Naval Units: None
Allied Damaged Axis Naval Units: 2 x CL
-----
This was a 5 impulse turn, so very little happened at sea.

The J/F '40 ratio of Naval Units removed from play favored the Allies, 2 to 1 . . . cumulative totals: 29 to 7.
-----
M/A '40 Summary
Failed combat initiations: 5

Losses
Germany: 1 x FTR-2 Destroyed; 1 x CA Damaged; 1 x CA Aborted
Italy: 1 x CL, 2 x Convoy Destroyed; 4 x CA Aborted
France: None
CW: 1 x CL, 1 x Convoy, 1 x TRS (w/GARR), 1 x CV (w/CVP) Destroyed; 1 x CL, 1 x CA Damaged; 1 x CL, 1 x BB, 1 x Convoy, 2 x TRS Aborted

Axis Destroyed Allied Naval Units: 1 x CL, 1 x Convoy, 1 x TRS, 1 x CV
Axis Destroyed Allied Land/Air Units: 1 x GARR, 1 x CVP
Axis Damaged Allied Naval Units: 1 x CL, 1 x CA

Allied Destroyed Axis Naval Units: 1 x CL, 2 x Convoy
Allied Destroyed Axis Land/Air Units: 1 x FTR-2
Allied Damaged Axis Naval Units: 1 x CA
-----
This turn was 8 impulses long. I've started including Abort results in this because (especially the Italian units) many of these were failed attempts to Damage.

The M/A '40 ratio of Naval Units removed from play favored the Axis, 6 to 4 . . . cumulative totals: 35 to 11. Land/Air Units eliminated also favored the Axis, 2 to 1.
-----
M/J '40 Summary -- through Impulse #7
Failed combat initiations: 0
.....Hoever, there was essentially 1 failed initiation:
CW initiates combat in E. Med, using CL Dragon; Allied Roll: 7, Axis: 3;
.....Italy spends 4 Surprise Points to Avoid Combat

Losses
Germany: None
Italy: 1 x CL Destroyed; 2 x CA Damaged; 3 x CA Aborted
France: 1 x CA, 1 x NAV Destroyed; 1 x CA Damaged
CW: 5 x CL Destroyed; 2 x CL, 1 x CA Damaged; 1 x CL, 4 x CA Aborted

Axis Destroyed Allied Naval Units: 5 x CL, 1 x CA
Axis Destroyed Allied Land/Air Units: 1 x NAV
Axis Damaged Allied Naval Units: 2 x CL, 2 x CA

Allied Destroyed Axis Naval Units: 1 x CL
Allied DamagedAxis Naval Units: 2 x CA
-----
Through the first 7 impulses of M/J '40, the ratio of Naval Units removed from play favored the Axis, 10 to 3 . . . cumulative totals 45 to 14. Land/Air Units eliminated also favored the Axis, 1 to 0 . . . cumulative totals: 3 to 1.

Something which is difficult to show, unless I were to include all of my notes, is that the CW has had few sustainable targets. When targets are available, they get terrible rolls. Also, when Italy feels it cannot sustain any more damage, it Aborts from Combat and only comes back out to sea when it can do serious harm to the enemy fleets. How is the CW supposed to attack ships that aren't there?
-----
Cumulative totals for S/O '39 through Impulse #7 of M/J '40
Failed CW combat initiations (including Avoided Combats): 9

Losses
Germany: 1 x FTR-2 Destroyed; 2 x CL, 1 x CA Damaged
Italy: 3 x CL, 3 x Convoy Destroyed; 4 x CL, 2 x CA Damaged
France: 6 x CL, 4 x CA, 2 x BB, 1 x NAV Destroyed; 1 x CL, 4 x CA Damaged; 1 x CA, 2 x BB Captured (It)
CW: 8 x CL, 2 x Convoy, 2 x TRS, 1 x CV, 1 x GARR, 1 x CVP Destroyed; 6 x CL, 2 x CA Damaged; 3 x Convoy Captured (Ge)

Axis Destroyed Allied Naval Units: 14 x CL, 4 x CA, 2 x BB, 2 x Convoy, 2 x TRS, 1 x CV (25 units)
Axis Destroyed Allied Land/Air Units: 1 x GARR, 1 x NAV, 1 x CVP (3 units)
Axis Damaged Allied Naval Units: 7 x CL, 6 x CA (13 units)
Axis Captured Allied Naval Units: 1 x CA, 2 x BB, 3 x Convoy (6 units)

Allied Destroyed Axis Naval Units: 3 x CL, 3 x Convoy (6 units)
Allied Destroyed Axis Land/Air Units: 1 x FTR-2 (1 unit)
Allied Damaged Axis Naval Units: 6 x CL, 3 x CA (9 units)
-----
I seem to have miscounted something somewhere, because the above shows a 44 to 15 ratio instead of 45 to 14 in the Axis favor. I'm not going to bother trying to figure out which is correct. In the naval battles of this game, the Axis has essentially eliminated the enemy at a 3:1 pace. Even the worst player in the world can't accomplish that without a lot of bad luck on one side and good luck on the other. I don't care how enormous the CW fleet is to begin with. If you lose ships at this rate over the course of the first year -- for whatever reason -- there just isn't enough left over to do everything I'm being asked to do with the CW.

I hope this summary demonstrates that the poor initial setup, a few risky moves, and a huge amount of luck have all conspired against the Royal Navy. And, hopefully, you'll begin to forgive me for my "bad play".

-Aaron

[Klydon]

Even if you toss out the 22 to 6 for the surprise turn, it is still 23 to 8 or so, which is extremely painful. I saw a lot of "avoid combat" on the part of the Axis when it suited them.

Also painful is the amount of CW speed that has been removed in terms of CL's. I would think that makes it harder to respond/intercept and reduces the flexibility the RN has.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Even if you toss out the 22 to 6 for the surprise turn, it is still 23 to 8 or so, which is extremely painful. I saw a lot of "avoid combat" on the part of the Axis when it suited them.

Also painful is the amount of CW speed that has been removed in terms of CL's. I would think that makes it harder to respond/intercept and reduces the flexibility the RN has.

I think this is very true. Germany has Kiel (and now Brest) to work from. Italy has Malta. The CW has to work around the entire world from less convenient locations.

Oh, and, by the way:

Happy New Year!

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Even if you toss out the 22 to 6 for the surprise turn, it is still 23 to 8 or so, which is extremely painful. I saw a lot of "avoid combat" on the part of the Axis when it suited them.

Also painful is the amount of CW speed that has been removed in terms of CL's. I would think that makes it harder to respond/intercept and reduces the flexibility the RN has.

I know I already quoted this, but it brings up a related question:

Last game I was derided (correctly) for building too many CW naval units and not building enough land and air units to start the game. This game I've tried to limit that somewhat, building more land and air units than before, and averaging 1-2 naval units each turn.

With the enormous losses suffered by the CW and French to this point, and with the USA not yet able to Repair Western Allied Units (not to mention the fact that it has not yet chosen the Option: Gift of Destroyers to the CW), at what point do I either choose these options -- which may result in a delayed US Entry -- or begin rebuilding a higher percentage of Naval Units for the CW?

[Klydon]

I think you would get a very helpful benefit from repairs. The gift of the destroyers is a one time shot and doesn't really alter your economic situation while repairing would free up CW build points to work on air and land items (or whatever you wanted; it would effectively raise the CW economic value as long as there are ships to be repaired).

Given the strategy the Axis is pursuing, the CW has issues and needs some help now.