MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Very little to report about the Allied impulse. Most of the CW navy is disorganized, so it was time for a Land Action to get TERR units into position to be picked up by the recently recharged TRS in Casablanca. A little of this, a little of that filled out the rest of it:

*The USA now has 2 units in each of Dutch Harbor and Honolulu . . .
*Communist China reclaimed Ankang (chew on that, Japan!)
*Nationalist China tried to keep things difficult for Japan, which wasn't really too difficult with all of those disorganized units sitting there useless.
*HQ-A Wavell decided to try to be a bit of a road-block west of Alexandria, but still has a retreat route open to him. He's hoping that the Spanish TRS will be able to get him an Indian INF early next turn -- which is the earliest that Italy could really move on his position, anyway.

And the weather roll for Impulse #9 was another "close-but-not-quite" for the Allies:

[Red Prince]

As it turns out, not much is happening on the Axis side of things either. Right now it's pretty much a war of maneuver, preparing for the next stage in the Strategic Plan.

There is one attack this turn, and I'm including what both Blitz and Assault CRT look like for this one. It's an attack most will think is foolish, just as they thought the previous attack in Egypt was foolish, but with either table there is a mere 10% chance that I'll be forced to destroy the MTN unit. The TERR is pretty much useless and easily rebuilt, and until I can get HQ-A Graziani over into Egypt, these units have nothing better to do.

Yes, it's a risk, but one I've already committed to with the attack last impulse. Now, given the choice of CRT, Blitz offers the Egyptian TERR a 40% chance of survival and a 30% chance of destroying the Lybian TERR. Choosing an Assault offers only a 20% chance of survival, but a 50% chance of killing the rival TERR (plus the chance of taking the MTN away, too).

If this battle were being fought by the Chinese, I don't know which I'd pick, but it is in Egypt, and every unit the CW manages to destroy means that Italy has to ship another one over (or rebuild the TERR). So, I choose Assault:



And the results:

Attack on Egypt [83, 56]; Assault, Roll = 6+2 = 8 = 1/2 (TERR destroyed, attackers disorganized)

If you care to check the tables again, this turned out to be the right choice . . . a Blitz would have resulted in a result of -/1R but instead Itally loses its TERR.

[Red Prince]

After rebasing some German FTRs to better protect against Strat Bombing and rebasing an Italian FTR to Tangier, I considered using both Japanese HQ units to reorganize enough troops to clean house near Chengtu.

However, the location of the units I would want, and the Chinese potential blocking moves caused me to select HQ-I Umezu only for reorganizing land units. He's at the farthest range he can be at and still maintain the supply link for all of the other units in the region, so he might as well do what he can now. If necessary, I can use the other one in a later impulse, though I doubt it will be the next Axis impulse . . . I have a not-so-surprising surprise planned for the Allies when that comes around.

[Red Prince]

I actually debated having all of the Allied powers Pass this impulse, improving the chances of ending the turn from 40% to 60%, but decided against it. I still want to pick up those TERR units, and while very few things can still be done, if everyone but China takes a Combined Action, what needs to be done can be done. That's because there just aren't a lot of units left to move for the Allies. If the Allies are un-lucky enough to hae yet another impulse of their own, then everyone will pass and pray the turn ends at that point.
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Edit: Okay, so we all know what the surprise is . . . a double-DOW on Portugal (depending on the weather), so that Japan can take East Timor and Germany can finish off its claims to Europe and focus on Gibraltar starting next turn. The true surprise is that I have a very tiny German fleet ready to make a bid for the Azores . . . if it can successfully escape interception in the North Sea, it should probably have an easy ride through Faeroes Gap and into the North Atlantic. Those sea areas aren't covered very high up, and it would take a miracle-roll by the CW to intercept in either sea zone. But the North Sea . . . . well, we'll see what happens.

[Centuur]

A nice German gamble indeed, going for the Azores with only a division on a SCS, I presume. Until the CW has got an AMPH you are probably quite save on the Azores, even if that division will be constantly out of supply. Capturing the Azores will mean that it won't be an airbase for the Allies for a while.
I like a small gamble now and than, and this sure looks like one I would like too.

Don't you ever worry about US entry? I would be a little more careful with double DoW's and such, since as the Axis you know US entry is already very high for the time of the game. The way things are going, will mean the US is going to be in the war very, very soon...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

A nice German gamble indeed, going for the Azores with only a division on a SCS, I presume. Until the CW has got an AMPH you are probably quite save on the Azores, even if that division will be constantly out of supply. Capturing the Azores will mean that it won't be an airbase for the Allies for a while.
I like a small gamble now and than, and this sure looks like one I would like too.

Don't you ever worry about US entry? I would be a little more careful with double DoW's and such, since as the Axis you know US entry is already very high for the time of the game. The way things are going, will mean the US is going to be in the war very, very soon...

I actually do worry about US Entry, but in order to get the job done right, it needs to be a double-DOW. Both Japan and Germany need surprise for the DOW on Portugal. The reason I risk it is that the odds favor only a 0 or a 1 being drawn 55% of the time, and after this, there are very few actions remaining that will potentially boost US Entry levels. Sure it's a gamble; one of the chits (if any chits are drawn) could be the dreaded '5' but I'm playing the odds here.

Suez, Gibrlatar, 2 more Nationalist cities, and an as yet to be determined number of Communist cities remain. If I can get at least half of these in 1940, it isn't going to increase US Entry very much at all (cross fingers). It's a risk/benefit analysis kind of thing. There are others on this forum who are better at it than I am (it's their profession, after all), but unless Japan is forced to DOW one of the "Western" major powers, adding an extra chit per turn, I think the benefits outweigh the risks.

US Entry is actually stabilizing. The USA needs to increase its Entry Pools, but it also needs to pass some very important Entry Options: Repairing W. Allied Ships, Gift of Destroyers, Resources to the USSR (not to mention lend-lease), and all 3 options required to force the Oil Embargo. That means the Tension Pools are going to be going up, possilby faster than the Entry Pools. That isn't good for the US Entry situation. The embargo rolls can be manipulated, since the fleet is at Pearl, but the others can't. Also, until War Appropriations are passed, there is a negative effect on the USA being able to DOW any Axis power, and the production multiple will remain where it is.

Early in the year it looked like War Appropriations might get passed in mid-1940. Well, it's already mid-1940 and it hasn't happened yet, and the US Entry strategy has to be altered to account for the CW failures at sea.

So, to contradict myself, no, I don't worry about US Entry. Even if I didn't know the actual numbers as the Axis player, the failure to pass certain Entry Options in the last two turns should tell me that things that were looking bad when the US chose the option to move the fleet to Pearl should indicate that things are swinging a little more in my (Axis) favor.

[Red Prince]

With little left to do for the Allies this turn, it was mostly re-arranging units to provide better positions. Then the turn failed to end yet again, and the weather roll was exactly what the Axis hoped for:



This means the plans on Portugal can proceed as planned, and also that there is a fair chance the Axis won't lose an Initiative point this turn, which might be very important depending on the circumstances for the beginning of J/A '40.

[Orm]

I think resources and lend-lease to USSR should wait. No need to pass them untill the German DOW on USSR is imminent.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

I think resources and lend-lease to USSR should wait. No need to pass them untill the German DOW on USSR is imminent.

You're right. I just mentioned them as things the USA needs to do in the next year or so.

As for the Axis plans to bring Portugal to its knees (and also for those who have been waiting for the Sub war to get underweigh), things have so far worked out beautifully:

Impulse: 11
.....Weather: 8
.....Germany DOW Portugal (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
.....Japan DOW Portugal; USE-5 (no chit)
CW sets up GARR in Lisbon, CA in Lourenco Marques (Mozambique -- to block Mozambique Channel), Convoy in Porto

Germany: Combined
Italy: Combined
Japan: Combined

*Germany moves loaded CA from Kiel to North Sea, (intercept with CA Effingham fails - Roll of 10), and on to Faeroes Gap (intercept with CA Peder Skram fails - Roll of 9), and finally to the N. Atlantic, (intercept by CL Neptune fails - Roll of 4), stopping in 3 Box

*Italy moves fleet of 4 SUBs from Bordeaux to Bay of Biscay 3 Box
*Japan moves fleet of 4 ships, with MAR Division loaded, from to Timor Sea 3 Box
*Japan moves TRS from Pakhoi to China Sea 2 Box, loading GARR from Fukuoka

The text in red was the most dangerous of the potential intercepts. The others had practically no chance of success, but the attempt had to be made.

So, while Germany will obviously not initiate combat in the North Atlantic, the Italians are going to make an attempt on the Bay of Biscay convoy pipeline. If successful, it could put the CW in even more trouble than it already is in.

[Red Prince]

Call it what you will, but this is not bad strategy. It is bad luck.

[Red Prince]

And the Axis attacks for this impulse, aiming to dismantle Portugal as much as possible:



And the results:

Attack on Lisbon; Assault, Fractional Odds .226 (Yes), Roll = 8 = */2S
Attack on Ponta Delgada: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attack on Dili: Assault, Roll = Automatic

Hardly a surprise for any of these, but a nice break for Germany at Lisbon.

[Taxman66]

I've never played with the new sub/ASW units, but presuming the old rules (i.e. ASW values for surface ships) still apply... I have never seen such a complete lack of defense of the convoys. We always put a few cruisers in the zero box and a few more in the 1 box to move down to 0 box at the end of the turn (so they CPs are defenseless at the start of the next turn). In the fat juicy target lanes (such as here) Naval air points in the 0 box (or at least able to react into the 0 box) are also a requirement. Cruisers in the 4 box or 3 box with a NAV points are near necessities too.

Sigh, maybe I'm just used to much more active sub wars. But the above is not just bad luck it was/is a disaster waiting to happen.

[Red Prince]

Once again, the turn failed to end. With nothing remaining to accomplish, and only a potential furthur collapse in China to look forward to, the Allies all Pass, hoping to pay off on that 80% chance of the turn ending. Not that the future looks very bright . . . or actually, it does look particularly bright, with only a 1% chance of bad weather in the primary theatres during J/A '40. It's just going to be a tough summer on the Allies, I guess.

3 minutes later:

"Oh, my Lord" just slipped out of my mouth, uncontrolled . . .

The turn didn't end. The roll of '9' prevented it. Actually, this is as bad for the Axis as it is for the Allies. It probably will mean a loss of another Initiative point, and there isn't much left to do right now except a little more harm in China and some relocation of troops toward Gibraltar, which will all be possible due to the new weather roll:

[Orm]

I wonder what the Axis had said if the Portuguese Garrison had set up in The Azores or in East Timor instead.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

I've never played with the new sub/ASW units, but presuming the old rules (i.e. ASW values for surface ships) still apply... I have never seen such a complete lack of defense of the convoys. We always put a few cruisers in the zero box and a few more in the 1 box to move down to 0 box at the end of the turn (so they CPs are defenseless at the start of the next turn). In the fat juicy target lanes (such as here) Naval air points in the 0 box (or at least able to react into the 0 box) are also a requirement. Cruisers in the 4 box or 3 box with a NAV points are near necessities too.

Sigh, maybe I'm just used to much more active sub wars. But the above is not just bad luck it was/is a disaster waiting to happen.

Actually, there were a lot of Cruisers in the 3 Box. I had no available cruisers to put in the 1 or 0 Box, and I did fly a FTR escort into the 0 Box (all I had available, since the CW is short on units). I forgot to mention the results of that combat . . . it took Italy 4 Surprise Points to choose a Submarine Combat, 4 more Surprise Points to Decrease Columns enough so that no Submarines were aborted, and then 2 points to boost their effectiveness.

In the end, only 3 Convoys were destroyed (2 of them French), and 3 more were aborted. This actually had no effect on the production plans for the CW. They still had enough convoys to get all resources they need to their destinations (this is the result of the collapse of France, and therefore the French convoys were helping before they died).

This wasn't a disaster waiting to happen. There is just no way to combat 10 Surprise Points. If it didn't happen here -- meaning, if I put had the units you wanted there (and I agree with you), it would have happened somewhere else. Right now, the CW just doesn't have the ability to cover everything. This is what I was trying to demonstrate in some of my earlier posts.

This was the 11th impulse. That means there was little left to assign to new sea areas. In the end, the damage was actually minimal.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

I wonder what the Axis had said if the Portuguese Garrison had set up in The Azores or in East Timor instead.

I debated that . . . in fact it came up in the last game, and there are two factors in play:

1. The only truly reasonable option other than Lisbon was to set up in East Timor . . . where it would end up pretty much useless anyway, because:
2. The German invasion of the Azores was a long shot that could not easily have been predicted by an average CW player without the inside information I had.

In the end, I decided just to let Portugal fall. A better choice might have been to set up in Mozambique, but I didn't think of that until just this moment.

[Red Prince]

Please also remember, that while I'm putting everything I've got into China and Western Europe, Russia and the USA loom very large. It's going to take quite the garrison force to keep Western Europe "safe" from the CW/USA, and the Med isn't closed yet. Barbarossa may be delayed for quite a while. If it has to wait until 1942, I'd say the Axis is in trouble, regardless of the gains its made so far. Nationalist China is near defeat, but once J/A '40 ends, it's going to be bad weather for the Japanese as they try to pound the Communists into submission.

Result: the Allies are having a tough time, but the game isn't over yet; in fact, it's barely even begun.

[Red Prince]

Now, if you want to talk about a disaster waiting to happen, just wait until those Italian SUBs have an opportunity to rebase to the Azores!

[Klydon]

Might be time for Winne to ring up Frankie and check on those old destroyers. [:D]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Orm

I wonder what the Axis had said if the Portuguese Garrison had set up in The Azores or in East Timor instead.

I debated that . . . in fact it came up in the last game, and there are two factors in play:

1. The only truly reasonable option other than Lisbon was to set up in East Timor . . . where it would end up pretty much useless anyway, because:
2. The German invasion of the Azores was a long shot that could not easily have been predicted by an average CW player without the inside information I had.

In the end, I decided just to let Portugal fall. A better choice might have been to set up in Mozambique, but I didn't think of that until just this moment.

I just reviewed the game map, and I made a glaring error in the placement of the Portuguese GARR. I should have put it in Macao. That would have forced the Japanese to reinforce Canton with an extra unit (there's just so much to try to remember in this game). As things stand now, I'd have to take a Combined impulse to take Macao from the Portuguese, but I really wanted to try a risky attack on Chengtu. If successful, it would have eliminated 3 units . . . the 2 in the city, plus the Chengtu Warlord. As it is, I'm going to skip that and take the combined impulse.
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Edit: Change of plan . . . after thinking more about it, I remembered that a land unit on a TRS at sea gets disorganized when the TRS moves back to a port, so Macao is safe. Moving the loaded TRS from the China Sea to Canton won't let me take Macao anyway, so it's going to be a Land Action for Japan after all.