OT - The New Coronavirus

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Toby42

I must be missing something. Using the posted figures the death rate is 4.2% (13071/308615 = 0.042 ?

warspite1

What you are missing is that by using your calculation, you assume all cases recorded that have neither died nor recovered, will recover. This - as we know from the critical patient data - is nonsense.

What is being done by Curtis Lemay is equally nonsense. He is assuming that every recorded case that has neither died not recovered, will die.

So two extreme (and false) ends of the same problem.

Both extremes are patently false and, as has been explained many, many times, trying to obtain a true mortality rate at present is incredibly difficult. The former calculation gives a false sense of 'comfort' (and I use that word in its broadest possible sense for obvious reasons). The latter is simply scaremongering. Nothing more, nothing less.

What can be done is for experts to make assumptions based on what they know about active cases and those that have recovered. This is open to interpretation and is proving difficult for a number of reasons. Simply put, a true mortality rate is probably impossible to calculate at this present time.

[Toby42]

Whatever you think! 12% is not a valid percentage of deaths!

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Toby42

Whatever you think! 12% is not a valid percentage of deaths!

warspite1

I think the thing is, we don't know what it will be. That there are massively differing rates from country to country - just look at Italy and Germany - at present, isn't helping the analysis. Add in all the other knowns and what the experts think they know, and yes, I agree, there is nothing to suggest (God willing) that this will come out at anywhere near that figure.

[Toby42]

Some British medical group estimated that th US could have 1.1 million deaths! I'm not sure how that number was arrived at?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Toby42

Some British medical group estimated that th US could have 1.1 million deaths! I'm not sure how that number was arrived at?

warspite1

I wish I have a fiver for every estimate on death toll and infections in the last two (almost three) months [:)].

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

...

I'm impressed too. Some people can spout the same tripe over and over like a school yard bully. Why do you people attack someone over and over again about the exact same thing? You made your point. It's shameful.

ok, lets have one last trip around this particular issue.

Bob's mindset is he doesn't understand two and half millenia of work in predictive/multivariate statistics (& as a field it is that old). No issue with that, a lot of people don't and mistakes like baserate neglect hamper good decision making on a regular basis (and I am not saying that statisticians can't make bad decisions). So Bob invents his own method and (since I assume he is intelligent) thinks this is better than any other (& most certainly cannot be wrong because ...)

Now lets have a wee analogy. I really understand nothing about nuclear physics. In my view, that makes me a truely rubbish person to put in charge of a nuclear power plant. In the Bob world, my ignorance makes me the ideal candidate.

I mean yes, its impressive that he can make a chart out of figures but that doesn't make it anywhere near right.

For the little its worth I think we are heading for 2 very different mortality ranges off this virus.

If, for the most part, the wider health systems don't collapse 1-5% (pick a number you're going to be as wrong as anyone else), if they do then I'd go for 10-15% (possibly hugher) for all the reasons that Franciscus gives.

And I'll stick to estimates generated by people with a grasp of statistical methods in the meantime.

[sPzAbt653]

Maryland closes beaches !

New Jersey orders all 'non-essential' people to stay at home.

Maryland National Guard assists testing stations [as seen in such films as The Crazies and Resident Evil [;)] ]

And yes, the return of the goofy irrelevant totted-up numbers argument !!

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Toby42

Some British medical group estimated that th US could have 1.1 million deaths! I'm not sure how that number was arrived at?

warspite1

I wish I have a fiver for every estimate on death toll and infections in the last two (almost three) months [:)].

[:D]

Aye. Everywhere I look I see different numbers and that's from people who are supposed to know what's going on. So how anyone can come down on anyone for posting their own is beyond me.

I'd like to say we'll know when the smoke clears we'll know what percent died but no one even knows if there will actually be an end. Corona virus have a penchant for mutating. So what if it mutates into something more deadly? Or less deadly? Maybe it's a permanent fixture like the seasonal flu. All of the facts are not even known for what's going around right now.

In any event one thing is for sure. The planet's economies are a shambles. That will likely kill more than the disease. But pollution is way down.

[Lobster]

This should prove interesting: https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus ... ket-newtab

[Red2112]

At you´re discretion...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2ZRT-gWZ8M&feature=emb_logo

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Toby42

Some British medical group estimated that th US could have 1.1 million deaths! I'm not sure how that number was arrived at?

warspite1

I wish I have a fiver for every estimate on death toll and infections in the last two (almost three) months [:)].

So how anyone can come down on anyone for posting their own is beyond me.

I'd like to say we'll know when the smoke clears we'll know what percent died but no one even knows if there will actually be an end. Corona virus have a penchant for mutating. So what if it mutates into something more deadly? Or less deadly? Maybe it's a permanent fixture like the seasonal flu. All of the facts are not even known for what's going around right now.

warspite1

Re the first point my answer is simple. Its not just how he has calculated and posted what he has - remember the opening post was to say how he hates to be the bearer of bad news but we've been calculating this the wrong way. So he thinks his patently false calculation is an accurate way to look at the current situation - and, as shown above, its not. Without any caveat, without any explanation re the active cases, presenting in this format is quite simply scaremongering. A simple caveat to his posts would be fine. Something like, note: these numbers do not take account of the active cases whose outcome we do not know and, because of its size, this data could have a major bearing on the numbers presented.

Re your second point yes, we don't know where this hideous thing will end up and, god-forbid, if it does mutate (or whatever viruses do) or swamps health systems, or causes people to really panic if they see its not getting any better, then maybe his 'calculations' will come to pass - who knows? But that does not make this irresponsible posting right.

ORIGINAL: Lobster

But pollution is way down.

warspite1

Monty Python have a song about that [:)]

[Red2112]

I think a 17 year old kid beat him and some...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXFm2u4EHrs

To be honest I would not trust the Wiki for serious stuff either.

[TulliusDetritus]

"WHO launches global megatrial of the four most promising coronavirus treatments"

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... treatments

No vaccine = à la Frankenstein trial and error treatments. I guess what might work for x might not work for y. And vice versa. It has already cured people though. In China, SK, Thailand etc etc.

[Blond_Knight]

Im done with this virus drama. I had two dates scheduled for last weekend and due to the virus, whether fear of it or having to having work late due to it the actual number of dates I had this weekend was zero.

I know what youre going to say, the virus had nothing to do with it.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

What is being done by Curtis Lemay is equally nonsense. He is assuming that every recorded case that has neither died not recovered, will die.

That is false. I am omitting the cases that haven't resolved - just like all those coins that were still in the air. We don't know how those cases will resolve, so they can't be included.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: loki100

Bob's mindset is he doesn't understand two and half millenia of work in predictive/multivariate statistics (& as a field it is that old).

I'm pretty sure that pandemics weren't spread by jet aircraft 2.5 millennia ago. There has never been a pandemic like this one. Old models are just guesswork.

[Curtis Lemay]

Today's chart:

[*Lava*]

It is pretty clear that due to the lack of testing we haven't a clue what the death rate is. What we can be sure of though is that 350,000 is total Bullshite. Infection rate is more likely in the millions and the death rate is somewhere around 1%.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: Lava
Infection rate is more likely in the millions and the death rate is somewhere around 1%.

Prove it. Your claims are Complete and utter Bullshite.

See, anyone can make any claims they want and there's no proof of otherwise because no one know for certain. [:D][:D][:D]

[*Lava*]

ORIGINAL: Lobster
Prove it.

In the one country which first started large scale testing (South Korea) and where the numbers published can be somewhat believable (almost certainly still lots of folks who had it but weren't confirmed)...

South Korea has 8961 confirmed cases and 111 deaths. That is a 0.012 death rate.