MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Ready for the first attack on Gibraltar?

Well, here it is, along with the attack on Chengtu:



And the results:

Attack on Chengtu: Assault, Fractional Odds .754 (Yes), Roll = 9 = */2S; USE-9 (no chit)
Attack on Gibraltar: Assault, Fractional Odds .223 (Yes), Roll = 5+1 = 6 = 1/1 (Berlin MIL destroyed, attackers disorganized, AT destroyed)

And don't I wish those rolls had been reversed. If so, I still would have steamed through Chengtu, but I also would have taken Gibraltar by shattering its units!

Oh, well. I was only hoping for 1 or 2 units destroyed there this impulse, and that's what I got . . . a single unit destroyed. The reason I chose the AT instead of the London MIL is that because both sides lost an equal number of units, the MIL remains organized . . . and the AT started out disorganized. Germany can still put up a fight using non-armor units for a while yet, so I was looking at either 12 doubled to 24 or 9 doubled to 18 by the terrain. Easy choice for me. Also, I know I can easily get another division into Gibraltar quickly. I'm not so certain about another Corps.

I was hoping (as Germany) for somthing a little more brilliant, but I'll take it. Now it's time to bring in the heavy bombers to help with the job.

Oh, and another thought . . . I didn't use the LND that is in Gibraltar for the CW as Ground Support because it would have had to fight an Air-to-Air combat at +4/-4 (not on the good end) in order to help out. During the Allied impulse, the RSA FTR will be able to join the fun, evening the odds out a little bit.

Damn good thing the rolls went the way they did and weren't reversed. Not only would it have been almost ridiculously lucky for the Axis, but Rob (warspite1) probably would have ripped my head off . . . from all the way across a very big ocean, even. [:)]

What about an attack on Tangiers by the British? There is either one less German in the hex or else there are two disorganized Germans there. With BB support that might work out to a nice number. Success would kill off the Italian fighter too - and disorganize whatever else the Axis have stacked there.

The last unit is a light Italian AA 2-3 . . . so the total stack becomes about 30 factors (assuming the CW uses the MECH), I think, with German Air support close enough to nearly double that. Even with a +2, The CW will find it to be a very costly attack.

[Centuur]

If the CW makes an attack on Tangier, it better be a good one, since he needs to clear the hex. If he doesn't clear the hex, that means there are a lot of shore bombardment factors the CW can't use to defend Gibraltar and he hasn't got the opportunity walk units into Gibraltar to replace units lost. That's a situation I wouldn't want to get in.
Also: it needs a land or combined impulse to do so. And that's something I wouldn't want to do as the CW now. I would want to take a naval impulse and start moving the fleet and be as aggressive as possible against the Germans in the North Sea and the Italians in the Western and Eastern Med. Kill as much enemy ships as possible. Also, the CW will block the Italian TRS moving around. If the Italians abort from the Western Med, you get even an out of supply situation in Tangier, and that makes that the target for next land impulse. And with you're shore bombardment factors in place to defend Gibraltar, you're gaining time.
If the Germans haven't got land units on the AMPH/TRS capable of invading the UK, I wouldn't bother with that German fleet in the North Sea now.

Communist China should start a slow withdrawal, aiming to defend with double stacks against Japanese units coming from the south. You might want to leave Sian, since you don't want to get cut off from Lan Chow. That city is better to defend than Sian. However: keep looking for opportunities to kill Japanese units by the Commies...
Don't even think of surrendering China. You can start that debate again after the turn has ended.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

You've done the right thing with you're attack on Gibraltar last impulse. However, things are probably going to get worse the next two impulses, because of CW shore bombardment factors, which are going to aid the defenders. However: keep attacking the Rock ever impulse. I would suggest using the PARA after the CW has exhausted his defensive shore bombardment (probably the third Axis impulse from now). In the that impulse, it's time to really gamble: use the best HQ you've got to assist in the attack (using HQ support). Also: try to get ART into the area (the heaviest one available), since it can add his factors from the hex northeast of Gibraltar.
"It is summertime, and the living is easy"... Meaning: it is a long turn, so take you're time weakening the defenses of the Rock, before making you're final assault...

That's my intent . . . I need to get my HQs down there quickly, though. They are somewhat scattered from the front to Bayonne. I do have the ART in the hex you are talking about, and used him already. I'll reorganize him with the first available HQ. If I can get an HQ in range each impulse to keep the hex beside Gibraltar available, I can then use my O-chit to "flip" them all once they are all used up, if that becomes necessary.

[Orm]

Now, here's a question for you. Even reading the rules, I sometimes have trouble with this: is it worth adding a PARA into an attack on Gibraltar in the first wave? or does the Notional Unit it creates actually make things harder?

In low odds attacks (using 1d10 table and fractional odds) on Gibraltar adding a PARA is always a benefit. If Germany adds a PARA in the attack on Gibraltar I doubt that there is a benefit to add the Notional Unit to the defence. Most likely the Notional increase the odds for Germany to capture Gibraltar.

Edit: I forgot to mention that the Blitz bonus is in play here and that has a huge impact.

[composer99]

Orm: Do you mind showing the working for that conclusion? I don't know the 1d10 table very well at all and would appreciate the lesson. [:)]

[Orm]

I think it would be nice if Royal Navy could make an attempt to break the Italian sea supply in the eastern Med.

Two more CW land units defending Egypt could work a long way in securing Suez.

I belive USSR needs to DOW Iraq as soon as possible. USSR should be able to get one HQ down to Persia this turn with one, or more, land units. A declaration of war on Iraq next turn would secure the south front from German influence.

[composer99]

Also, if the CW gets the army & air force in place to go on the offensive in northern Morocco, I would suggest first clearing out hexes around Tangiers so as to attack it from all sides, including by invasion & paradrop (reducing the requirements for shore bombardment, it so happens).

At the moment I don't think the CW has the land unit numbers to handle a bad land combat result. Best to wait until the German HQs and air force are needed against USSR.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Now, here's a question for you. Even reading the rules, I sometimes have trouble with this: is it worth adding a PARA into an attack on Gibraltar in the first wave? or does the Notional Unit it creates actually make things harder?

In low odds attacks (using 1d10 table and fractional odds) on Gibraltar adding a PARA is always a benefit. If Germany adds a PARA in the attack on Gibraltar I doubt that there is a benefit to add the Notional Unit to the defence. Most likely the Notional increase the odds for Germany to capture Gibraltar.

Edit: I forgot to mention that the Blitz bonus is in play here and that has a huge impact.

I agree on the use of the PARA. However, wait until later in the turn. The defense of Gibraltar have to be as weak as possible, to give the Germans the chanche to clear the hex. At this time, if the CW gets shore bombardment in place, it is better to weaken that defenses by making attacks in the next two Axis impulses, without the PARA. That will exhaust the CW shore bombardment capabilities, so that the fourth attack this turn should be made with the PARA and hopefully it than gets to clear the hex. And don't forget: a 1-1 attack always might result in a 10 being rolled, thus clearing the hex. Every unit the CW lose, he needs to replace in Gibralter. And the replacements aren't going to be better units than the ones which are there now.
The blitz bonus in 1D10 is only used in clear terrain. Gibraltar isn't. The only modifiers available are from attacking face down units and the PARA gives another modifier.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Orm: Do you mind showing the working for that conclusion? I don't know the 1d10 table very well at all and would appreciate the lesson. [:)]

In my post I forgot to mention that the Blitz bonus is in effect and that gives the attack +1 on the die roll ïf the PARA is included in the attack.

Some years ago I was in the position to attack Gibraltar with the 1d10 in play and fractional odds and the blitz bonus. Since fractional odds is in play and there are already so many defence factors it is likely that just a couple of attack or defence factors extra will not affect the final combat odds as much as an extra die modifier. And if the defender has 3 land units in Gibraltar you need a shatter result. We counted alot on this and so did the defenders and we all reached the same conclusion. Bonus on the die roll is more important. Here is an example to show you.

Normal attack with 52 attacking factors versus 26 defending factors = 2-1 -> 20% to capture Gibraltar.
Adding a 4 strength PARA to same attack gives you 56:26 = 2-1 + 1 (with 15% to get 3-1 +1) -> 30% to capture Gibraltar (with 15% to get 40%).
And now I add the notional defender to the attack and that gives 56:28 = 2-1 + 2 -> 40% to capture Gibraltar.

So the die roll bonus recieved from the PARA and the notional increase the odds for Gibraltar to be lost.

[morgil]

Interesting thread. However, these odds calculations are baffling at best, but then I have never used anything but 2d10.
We just take (attacker/defender)*2 add the various bonuses from different units, roll for the fractional and then add that to the die roll.
Usually we also have one attack roll and a defence roll, more fun, less random.

[composer99]

Thank you Orm.

So PARA and notional each add +1 to the roll on the 1d10 CRT when playing with blitz bonus rule. That's certainly more powerful than a +1 die roll modifier on 2d10.

[Orm]

The para gets +1 from the blitz optional. The +1 from the notional is because it is disorganized. And that is actually the same bonus you would get from the 2d10 as well. But die roll bonuses are even more important on the 1d10 table than the 2d10.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

I think it would be nice if Royal Navy could make an attempt to break the Italian sea supply in the eastern Med.

Two more CW land units defending Egypt could work a long way in securing Suez.

I belive USSR needs to DOW Iraq as soon as possible. USSR should be able to get one HQ down to Persia this turn with one, or more, land units. A declaration of war on Iraq next turn would secure the south front from German influence.

I don't think this is such a good idea. "Next turn" is S/O '40, and there may not be time to even cross the mountains into Iraq, much less take it. By then, Italy has had control of it for 2 turns and would then have 2 units defending . . . and all the while, the USSR would be depleting its Garrison Value. It's going to take more than and HQ and 2 units (although, air support would help). I'd say an HQ and 4 units would work better, and that's too much to take off the German lines. Especially since I can't get more than a single unit to Egypt without risking the loss of Gibraltar this turn easily.

As it is, I wonder if the 2 TRS not dedicated to Egypt and the RSA FTR are going to be able to give Gibraltar the support it needs.

[Red Prince]

I just went back to the previous page, and I found 33 Shore Bombardment Factors available in Gibraltar. That's not going to be enough to take on Tangier. And I'm also thinking that a foray into the W. Med is going to be dangerous, though necessary.

Italy wisely removed the Convoy from that sea area to prevent a die roll modifier for the CW, and both Germany and Italy have their NAVs flying above the seas. The CW does have CVP available to counter that, but I'm going to have to be very careful/creative in my choice of ships. I'd like to limit it to 16, but I'll go up to 22 if I have to do that to get superiority. The real problem is actually going to be air power, which the CW doesn't have in great supply right now, thanks to the Ground Strike Italy made on Gibraltar . . . no NAVs for the CW heading into the Med this turn, I'm afraid.

I'll probably run this impulse in the morning. I'm very tired now, and I'll need to be fresh if I want to give the CW a chance to do right in the W. Med (at long last).

[Red Prince]

I should give you the numbers . . . Italy has 44 attack factors in the 3 and 4 Boxes of the W. Med. In order to get that 150%, that means I need to commit 66+ attack factors. Italy and Germany have 5 Air-to-Sea factors over the W. Med, and the CW CVP amount to . . . 1 Air-to-Sea Factor and a 3-factor fighter/CVP . . . plus a LND that could add 2 more. Italy and Germany (I think) both have FTRs that can intercept, though from a low sea box.

What this all means is that if the Italians have the option to call for Naval Air Combats fairly regularly, with the number of ships the CW is going to have to commit, I'll have to choose those ships very carefully to try to maximize AA fire and minimize Shore Bombardment factors. Italy, given the choice, is likely to try to target any ship with shore bombardment capabilities with the NAVs, improving the chances that Germany can take Gibraltar.

You can see the ships available on the previous page. I'm sure I'll figure something out . . . unless I wake up in the morning and see that the forum has decided that it isn't worth trying to take out the Italian Fleet and that the defense of Gibraltar is more important. Or, just as likely, I might sprout wings and fly to the moon when I wake up. [:)]

I'm getting loopy, so I'll talk to you (sort of) in the morning. Good night all (EST, USA).

[Orm]

Why should USSR be concerned about garrison values? I see no reason at all except bind a few German land units. And Germany has enough of them anyway. So DOW Iraq as soon as possible.

Gibraltar may fall very soon and it would be a sad day if CW lost Suez and Gibraltar the same turn. Few units in Egypt can make alot of difference at the moment.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

This is an edited together set of Flyouts showing all of the units currently in the Gibraltar hex:

Naval Review Details might have made this easier to display.

My monitor isn't tall enough to display all of the CA at once.

Looking at the AA CRT 29 AA factors against 2 air units yields a 1/1 which has a mean of 5.5 naval air factors sent home. If you go to 39 AA you get a -2/5, which has a mean of 6 naval air factors sent home. Things are even better if the Axis are sending in 3 air units to get their 5 naval air factors. As I count it, there are 42 AA factors in Gibraltar (excluding the carrier).

I wouldn't send the CW air force up against the Axis in the Med. Just send all those ships. You should put them all in the same section box (3) so if the Axis wants to fight them, it has to fight them all. If you send only the fast movers, you can make the 4 box with 31 AA factors (that means sending the carrier. Sitting in the 4 section with the carrier's +1, you have a 50% chance of finding the Axis. If the carrier does get involved in an air-to-air combat voluntarily abort after the first round. The carrier air units will still be able to fight in future rounds.

So, the choice is to send everybody except the carrier to the 3 box, or just the fact ships to the 4 box. Even just the fast group has 61 surface factors. That has some pretty bloody results for the Italians.

Like my weekly opponent of 20 years, I like a combat where I have the overwhelming advantage. If the Italians survive the Fast Task Force, you can send out the slower ships to the 3 box in the next impulse and have the units in the 4 section drop down a section so they are all together.

The shore bombardment support can come from the Med just as easily as from Cape St. Vincent.

---
Just a couple of possibilities.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets



Naval Review Details might have made this easier to display.

My monitor isn't tall enough to display all of the CA at once.

Looking at the AA CRT 29 AA factors against 2 air units yields a 1/1 which has a mean of 5.5 naval air factors sent home. If you go to 39 AA you get a -2/5, which has a mean of 6 naval air factors sent home. Things are even better if the Axis are sending in 3 air units to get their 5 naval air factors. As I count it, there are 42 AA factors in Gibraltar (excluding the carrier).

I wouldn't send the CW air force up against the Axis in the Med. Just send all those ships. You should put them all in the same section box (3) so if the Axis wants to fight them, it has to fight them all. If you send only the fast movers, you can make the 4 box with 31 AA factors (that means sending the carrier. Sitting in the 4 section with the carrier's +1, you have a 50% chance of finding the Axis. If the carrier does get involved in an air-to-air combat voluntarily abort after the first round. The carrier air units will still be able to fight in future rounds.

So, the choice is to send everybody except the carrier to the 3 box, or just the fact ships to the 4 box. Even just the fast group has 61 surface factors. That has some pretty bloody results for the Italians.

Like my weekly opponent of 20 years, I like a combat where I have the overwhelming advantage. If the Italians survive the Fast Task Force, you can send out the slower ships to the 3 box in the next impulse and have the units in the 4 section drop down a section so they are all together.

The shore bombardment support can come from the Med just as easily as from Cape St. Vincent.

---
Just a couple of possibilities.

I'm willing to try it. It's just the 2 NAV for the Axis. I guess the thing that would prevent me from having considered these options is that either option requires sending a huge fleet, which I've always hesitated to do. I don't like to commit so many ships in an early impulse, but that's probably the way to go.

Most likely I would want to send the fast fleet first -- just in case the next impulse sees Gibratar miraculously fall, but I'll check out the full values of both fleets before choosing one or the other.

Thanks for the thoughts, Steve. This is the kind of help I really need in learning how to use the CW fleet effectively.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Why should USSR be concerned about garrison values? I see no reason at all except bind a few German land units. And Germany has enough of them anyway. So DOW Iraq as soon as possible.

Gibraltar may fall very soon and it would be a sad day if CW lost Suez and Gibraltar the same turn. Few units in Egypt can make alot of difference at the moment.

The reason is that the Soviets are limited to 5 land moves each impulse, and are going to have to use many of them for the Communists over the next turn. If they use all of the spare moves working in Persia and Iraq, piecemeal, they'll never get those troops back to the border with Germany in time to try to prevent a '41 Barbarossa.

[Red Prince]

These are the ships that could currently be sent out against the German fleet in the North Sea, without using units from Gibraltar. I've pasted in the Flyout showing the German fleet.

Basically, the CW can get 28 factors from 6 ships to the 3 Box, while Germany has 27 factors from 5 ships in the 4 Box. While Germany does have an AMPH in Kiel stacked with a 7-3 white print INF, I don't think the North Sea is important enough right now to take this risk at the moment. I'd rather focus on the Med instead, which might require every last ship Gibraltar can supply. (I'll post a similar image showing Steve's sugggestions next).