The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)

[Lowpe]

Truk?

[Lokasenna]

Just got caught up on the week's worth of posts I missed. His moves confuse me.

Why no CVEs with the BBs? Was his southern flank really that vulnerable? That seems criminally negligent...

He didn't bombard enough to take the base. Or bomb. He needed to bomb the troops with the CV air groups. Maybe his goal was instead to lure your CVs out so he could destroy them, even in a "poor" trade, because of strategic concerns, but... this all looks very hasty.


Also, if you're going to overstack an atoll, I think you need to do it with Marines. The US Army divisions just can't punch through like the Marines can.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Just got caught up on the week's worth of posts I missed. His moves confuse me.

Why no CVEs with the BBs? Was his southern flank really that vulnerable? That seems criminally negligent...

He didn't bombard enough to take the base. Or bomb. He needed to bomb the troops with the CV air groups. Maybe his goal was instead to lure your CVs out so he could destroy them, even in a "poor" trade, because of strategic concerns, but... this all looks very hasty.


Also, if you're going to overstack an atoll, I think you need to do it with Marines. The US Army divisions just can't punch through like the Marines can.

I think he is a very good player who hasn't been this far before and had to really take atolls. Even Jocke his first time had a disaster, but figured it out very quickly after that.

I do sense there was some intent to lure out my CVs. A lot of hanging around and subtle shifting to take away any possibility of an advantageous strike for the IJN. He did eventually bomb two days with the CVs and his early bombardments were numerous, but with level 6 forts they didn't disrupt the troops. After the first day failure with that many troops it almost takes a miracle to get supply in and get a good result. if he'd removed some day 2 that might have done it actually.

The CVEs seem to still be with his CVs in the big TF. This gives him very good defensive ability and extra striking power. I get it, but it was a tad lackadasical to send them to Wake. I would have gone away NE then SE toward Midway. They could have had LR CAP too from Wake, but really, if I made this move the CVEs that could have been there would have been crushed too.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

If you go to Wake with your fast TF, where would you go with the others?

Well, that's a good question. The CVEs are not so mobile and it doesn't seem a good idea to have them stuck mid-ocean. Probably South to Truk. I can add LBA there. The others could just make it to link up and bring with them the CS cruisers that have extra search and Rex's for low CAP, which do really well against DB/TB with their cannons.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: obvert

If anyone has thoughts about next turn let me know soon. About to go work on it. Lots to consider. A very psychological moment, and I have to try to get into what he's going to be thinking seeing this.

Run south. You've got the VP's for his BB's in the bag.

He doesn't have Marcus, and I'm skeptical that he'll take it unless he comes back to smash it to dust.

Run south, get re-organized and refueled and wait for him to come back.

[obvert]

The turn is away. Now I must sleep.

Torsten sent a short message back after getting the turn. "I don't get combat reports."

Not sure what he means. Maybe the sync bug?

[koniu]

ORIGINAL: obvert

The turn is away. Now I must sleep.

Torsten sent a short message back after getting the turn. "I don't get combat reports."

Not sure what he means. Maybe the sync bug?

Or maybe You accidentally disable combat reports, that show up after combat animation, in game options.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: koniu

ORIGINAL: obvert

The turn is away. Now I must sleep.

Torsten sent a short message back after getting the turn. "I don't get combat reports."

Not sure what he means. Maybe the sync bug?

Or maybe You accidentally disable combat reports, that show up after combat animation, in game options.

Ahh, I'll check. I did hit f8 to redo the turn before turn, so that could be it. I had originally decided to do this but tried to replenish the CVEs from the replenishment TF and it took from the fast CVs too. Had to start over, run the replay again.

Thanks for the translation koniu. I think that's it.

[obvert]

So. Torsten did have a problem seeing the combat reports in the replay because I re-ran it to watch again with f8 pressed once I realized I needed to go back into the turn to correct my mistake. Now I know it affects the other side and not to send that reaply to him in future.

He requested that I do it again with the reports on, so I re-ran the turn. While running I noticed that the bombs on West Virginia often penetrated and several caused damage below the waterline, which is positive. Also, the Maryland took some good penetrating shots and has to at least be slowed down. Only one DD didn't take a bomb, so unless he has more here there is little escort to keep the subs out. I've got four 18 knot I-boats in range 2-4 hexes away. It would be a miracle not to get a shot off unless many ASW TFs flood the area from farther East.

The search from TB and FPs was 9-10 hexes, and no other TFs appeared after the replay, but during the replay something was at Wake. It may have retreated due to threat tolerance settings out of day search range, or it might have been hidden in clouds. Not sure, but I'm kicking myself I didn't get recon on Wake for this turn. It would have given me a better idea of what I'm getting into down here as well as the other potential targets for tomorrow, and increased their DL right off the bat.

I have a feeling Torsten will take his sweet time with this one, and he might also ask a few more questions to see if any info leaks about tomorrow's intentions. [;)]

From my incomplete knowledge of his position I'd say there are some difficult choices on the table. [8D]

[KenchiSulla]

These are the moments the game shines... Everytime I expect a major battle I run and re-run my moves and the numbers until I finally fall to sleep...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

These are the moments the game shines... Everytime I expect a major battle I run and re-run my moves and the numbers until I finally fall to sleep...

Yes. I think of so many things to do, or that I forgot to do! [:D]

Or that I just don't understand, like the next post.

[obvert]

Here are two of the four CVs that experienced groups not flying. I don't know why. Is this a simply a target choice issue? Didn't think those BBs needed a full strike? Or something else?

Good air leaders in each TF, groups rested, planes doing fine after repairing for a week, and pilots VERY experienced with very good, aggressive group leaders.

The DBs flew as you can see the sorties missing there, so why not the TBs?

[KenchiSulla]

I am pretty sure it is the AI determining the relative value of the target and what would be enough force to destroy it. I've seen 100 strike aircraft attacks against single TFs (lets say a dozen tankers or support ships with escorts) with 200 strikecraft being available.. It does make sense to keep a reserve for contingencies...

[obvert]

Here are the Allied BB losses so far in game. This is the one area of naval combat we're significantly ahead in right now. (Lost two fast IJN BCs)

Didn't get a lot at PH, but just made up for some of that (hopefully).

I don't think three BBs sank. I think only two are down so far, but it subs can contact the other damaged ones that could change in the night.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

I am pretty sure it is the AI determining the relative value of the target and what would be enough force to destroy it. I've seen 100 strike aircraft attacks against single TFs (lets say a dozen tankers or support ships with escorts) with 200 strikecraft being available.. It does make sense to keep a reserve for contingencies...

Good. I'm glad you think this! Just worried it was something else I hadn't considered, potentially. This could be good as he might not be able to predict just how strong our forces are here based on yesterdays strikes.

[obvert]

In addition to losing about 6-7 fleet subs in this op, we've definitely got a lot of them damaged and heading back to Yokohama for repairs. Five are already in the yards and most of the top of this list is on the way back too.

[KenchiSulla]

To support my thesis...

Morning Air attack on TF, near Raoul Island at 127,173

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 70
B5N2 Kate x 53
D4Y1 Judy x 57

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 4 damaged

Allied Ships
TK Vera, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
TK Manvantara, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires
AO Ramapo, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Sims, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
TK Esso Richmond, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
AO Tippecanoe, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Strong, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
TK Arethusa, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
TK Seirstad, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
TK Esso Durban, Bomb hits 2
TK Gulfcoast, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
20 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
9 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
17 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
3 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
16 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
12 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
9 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
3 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
8 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring TK Manvantara
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring AO Tippecanoe

This was a strike where 260 strikecraft where part of the TF, with about 10% of the total assigned to search. It did use the full escort compliment available...

It almost looks like it is mimicking doctrine I read about (sending up strikecraft per division - or in this case carrier). So, divebombers for carrier A, B and C and torpedobombers for carrier D, E and F....

[obvert]

Right. It seems like that here too.

Would have been nice to finish off the BBs. Oh, well.

[obvert]

Can anyone tell that I'm getting impatient for the next turn! [:D]

[KenchiSulla]

So, turn received yet? "taps foot"