MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Here's the full fleet currently in Gibraltar:

[Red Prince]

The top image is the "fast fleet" Steve was talking about, with its statistics, and the bottom image shows the "slow fleet".

If I drop out the 3 weakest ships from the fast fleet, I can get into the 17-22 row, and still have 56 attack and 30 AA factors. Neither of these changes effect the columns used to damage the Italians, so I think that's the way I'm going to do it. As steve said, if the Italians survive, the remaining fleet is there to finish the job, and it is highly unlikely that Gibraltar will fold next impulse.

[Red Prince]

Turns out I can't get the extra division into Gibraltar without some risk. With the German fleet in the North Sea and the Italian SUB fleet in the Bay of Biscay, sending a lone ship with the INF Division to Gibraltar is a risky move. If intercepted (and there's a 40% chance in both cases), both the CA and the division are likely to die a valiant but pointless death.

Perhaps I'm playing too conservatively, but I don't like the idea of trying to fight through from the 0 Box to get that division to Gibraltar. I could send the Plymouth BB fleet along for the ride, trying to kill off the SUBs, but if I understand the rules correctly, Italy doesn't have to commit its SUBs to combat, essentially "Avoiding Combat". There's a pro/con situation here. I could try this and then drop off the BB fleet (or part of it) in the 0 Box to protect the convoys while the CA moves on to Gibraltar with the division . . . that's the "pro", since it almost certainly will avoid an interception. The "con" part is that it leaves the North Sea in German hands for the rest of the turn, and I have Alexander near enough to reorganize the CV and a few other naval units.

Being inexperienced, I'm going to remain conservative and just hope I can keep Gibraltar for a while longer while I figure this out.

[Red Prince]

You wanted it, you got it: CW reasserts itself in the Med! (sort of)

CW moves fleet of 22 ships from Gibraltar to the W. Med 4 Box, 9 ships from Port Said to the E. Med 3 Box

CW initiates combat in E. Med, using CL Adelaide; Allied Roll: 6, Axis: 6; both searches failed
CW initiates combat in W. Med, using CL Neptune; Allied Roll: 9, Axis: 1; Italy spends 4 of 7 Surprise Points to Avoid Combat

I checked the charts to see what I could do with 7 surprise points before finally choosing to Avoid Combat. I couldn't lower the AA value or Surface values of the CW enough to make it worth trying to take out some of their ships. Yes, it means I'll either have to deal with them again in the next few impulses (maybe even with a tougher fleet), but it keeps Tangier in supply. That's crucial, so I think Italy made the right choice.
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I really do think that the CW politicians must be going through something like what Abraham Lincoln went through during the American Civil War. In the first 2 years of that war, Lincoln replaced his top General something like 5 times before finally putting Grant in charge of things. In this case, the CW just can't seem to find a competent Admiral to fight in the W. Med. At least this one didn't lose any ships this impulse . . .

[Red Prince]

I discovered something unfortunate. The RSA FTR has 2 choices: rebase from Cape St. Vincent to Gibraltar . . . or to Rabat.

If I choose Gibraltar, it can intercept Ground Strikes there, but will end up disorganized in Gibraltar after the fact. If I choose Rabat, it can't intercept as far as Gibraltar. That means I need to take a Land Action to move up one hex into Spanish Morocco with a CW unit, then rebase to that hex. I chose Rabat, since I need a Land Action to get the Indian MIL into Suez and rail the Delhi MIL to Bombay (not taking any chances of a Partisan destroying that factory), and need to get Wavell back to Cairo. Also, the Liner is now in the Cape St. Vincent 2 Box, and can reorganize an INF unit in Gibraltar if I decide on a Land Action.

I also should be able to hold onto Gibraltar for another impulse (I hope), since I have shore bombardment available. It's unfortunate that France has no ships available to enter the W. Med and trigger a Naval Combat. During the CW fleet restructuring, they were required for the defense of the Cape St. Vincent supply lines.

I'm using some reorganization abilities for the fleet this impulse in Plymouth:


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Edit: I know this impulse didn't go "as planned" and it was less exciting/damaging than hoped. But at least the CW didn't self-destruct again. That is an improvement, is it not?

[Red Prince]

In China, I tried to make my moves wisely. I'm now certain that the Soviets are going to have to use all of their Land Moves, and maybe even a rail move or two, to get the Communists into position to defend Lanchow, assuming that is the better city to defend. At the moment, I can still alter the destinations so that it is Sian that is defended, but that seems unwise.

The idea here is to abandon the Lanchow Warlord. It can't really do anything useful at the moment. Instead, I moved the MTN to block a direct push to either Lanchow or Tianshui, moved the CAV into position to fortify Tianshui next impulse, pulled Mao and the Lanchow MIL back to "head for the hills", and pulled the Sian MIL out of Ankang, seemingly in the wrong direction -- toward Sian.

The last move actually does make sense. If I moved him the other way, either to the west or to the northwest, he could easily be put OOS, though it might force the Japanese to disorganize one of its defenders to take Ankang away. From his present position, he can get into the mountain hex next to Sian, allowing the better INF unit to begin the retreat toward Lanchow. With the land movement limitations of the USSR, I might end up having to use both GARR as a "hero city" stack in Sian, while the rest of the units attempt to get to Lanchow. Unfortunately, there are 7 units that must relocate, and only 5 moves per impulse.

On the plus side, if the Communists can make it through the summer with a city still in their control, which should be easy enough (though it might be a remote city), there is that 5-3 INF coming in at the start of S/O '40 as a reinforcement.

[Red Prince]

I actually misquoted the chances (1%) of bad weather helping the Allies defend Egypt and Gibraltar earlier. I would not have realized this, except the weather rolls are back to the extremes again:



So, a roll of '10' (10%) requires another roll of '10' (1% cumulative) in order to have a chance at a 3rd roll of '10' to get a cumulative 0.1% chance of Rain in Gibraltar.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Orm

Why should USSR be concerned about garrison values? I see no reason at all except bind a few German land units. And Germany has enough of them anyway. So DOW Iraq as soon as possible.

Gibraltar may fall very soon and it would be a sad day if CW lost Suez and Gibraltar the same turn. Few units in Egypt can make alot of difference at the moment.

The reason is that the Soviets are limited to 5 land moves each impulse, and are going to have to use many of them for the Communists over the next turn. If they use all of the spare moves working in Persia and Iraq, piecemeal, they'll never get those troops back to the border with Germany in time to try to prevent a '41 Barbarossa.

But USSR would have to have those units there anyway if Iraq is aligned to Axis to stop Germany from reaching the Turkish border from the south.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Orm

Why should USSR be concerned about garrison values? I see no reason at all except bind a few German land units. And Germany has enough of them anyway. So DOW Iraq as soon as possible.

Gibraltar may fall very soon and it would be a sad day if CW lost Suez and Gibraltar the same turn. Few units in Egypt can make alot of difference at the moment.

The reason is that the Soviets are limited to 5 land moves each impulse, and are going to have to use many of them for the Communists over the next turn. If they use all of the spare moves working in Persia and Iraq, piecemeal, they'll never get those troops back to the border with Germany in time to try to prevent a '41 Barbarossa.

But USSR would have to have those units there anyway if Iraq is aligned to Axis to stop Germany from reaching the Turkish border from the south.

Iraq isn't going to align to Germany. It is going to align to Italy. Which means it doesn't count as "border".

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


The reason is that the Soviets are limited to 5 land moves each impulse, and are going to have to use many of them for the Communists over the next turn. If they use all of the spare moves working in Persia and Iraq, piecemeal, they'll never get those troops back to the border with Germany in time to try to prevent a '41 Barbarossa.

But USSR would have to have those units there anyway if Iraq is aligned to Axis to stop Germany from reaching the Turkish border from the south.

Iraq isn't going to align to Germany. It is going to align to Italy. Which means it doesn't count as "border".

1) USSR does not know that Iarq will align to Italy. And as USSR I would not care either way. Axis Iraq is a threat.
2) Germany must get the units into USSR regardless of the status of Iraq to align Turkey.
3) With Iraq in Soviet control USSR probably needs fewer units to defend the southern front. So the units "trapped" in Iraq can then be used as reserves to be transfered to the main front. With Iraq in Italian control the same units would probably be needed to transfer from the main front to the Turkish front. In my opinion it is better if USSR are there before Italy begins its offence.

[Red Prince]

I've just been doing some calculations . . . Gibraltar again.

With the new information about a Paradrop gaining a +2 on the die roll, (or is that +1 ?) . . . well, assuming it is a +1, if I successfully Ground Strike the 2nd unit in Gibraltar, I can get -- at worst -- a 30% chance to take the hex. That would be a 39:50 +3 attack, which means .560 Fractional Odds to get to 1:1 +3, which improves the success rate to 40%.

The worst case scenario stated above assumes that Germany fails to shoot down enemy LND trying to provide Ground Support. If they either don't fly or fail to be cleared through, the Fractional Odds roll improves to .777 (39:44). Either way, it's an attack worth making, because it will certainly use up a lot of CW Shore Bombardment (though if the attack fails, there is more sitting in Gibraltar).

So, I'll send the LND and hope for a successful strike . . .

Oops. I forgot about the CVP in the W. Med. They may be weak, but they can try to stop the Ground Strike, though the odds do not favor them, since Germany can also fly intercept:

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Orm



But USSR would have to have those units there anyway if Iraq is aligned to Axis to stop Germany from reaching the Turkish border from the south.

Iraq isn't going to align to Germany. It is going to align to Italy. Which means it doesn't count as "border".

1) USSR does not know that Iarq will align to Italy. And as USSR I would not care either way. Axis Iraq is a threat.
2) Germany must get the units into USSR regardless of the status of Iraq to align Turkey.
3) With Iraq in Soviet control USSR probably needs fewer units to defend the southern front. So the units "trapped" in Iraq can then be used as reserves to be transfered to the main front. With Iraq in Italian control the same units would probably be needed to transfer from the main front to the Turkish front. In my opinion it is better if USSR are there before Italy begins its offence.

The bottom line for me at the moment is:

1. The USSR can't afford the land moves necessary to do it at this time; they are needed for the Chinese Communists
2. The US Entry Pools are now back on track, and there is a 90% chance of a DOW on Iraq removing a chit
3. If the CW can't hold the Med, Germany and/or Italy are going to be able to take Iraq back anyway, so why give it to them for free?

[Red Prince]

Not Good. [:(] The chance of taking out the LND or even Aborting it may have been less than hoped for, but losing another CVP is just salt in the wound.

Time to Abort from the Air-to-Air Combat . . .

[Red Prince]

And, for the Allies, even worse. [:@]

I didn't happen to mention this, but I also tried a Ground Strike on Mao, since he was forced to move to a clear terrain hex as part of his retreat. Well, you can see the results for yourself below. The top screenshot shows the strike on Gibraltar, and the bottom one shows the strike on HQ-I Mao.

Honestly, I don't see this as poor planning (though some may disagree), since one way or another, Mao had to get out of Yenan and into or near one of the cities of Sian or Lanchow. At some point in the turn, he was going to be in an exposed position. Nothing to be done about it.

[Red Prince]

Now that I'm planning a serious attempt to clear out Gibraltar in the current impulse, I've decided to try something a little risky. I suppose you've probably come to expect that of me by now, though. [:)]

Here you can see where my remaining active HQs are located . . . all of them to the Northeast of Madrid. That means that none of them can get into "reorganization range" of Gibraltar before the end of this Axis impulse. If I allow that, and if the attack fails, then I've just given the CW a free impulse to repair the damage . . . meaning they'll have 2 impulses to try it instead of the 1 they should normally have, given a sustained assault each impulse.



So, I've decided to rail all 3 of these HQs into reorganization range. Sure, that doesn't fix the problem, but it does a few other things for me:

1. If the attack fails this impulse, it gives me a perfect moment to spend the O-chit (impulse #5) to flip all of my HQs at the same time while all of them are in reorganization range of the attack on Gibraltar.

2. If I can't manage to mount another attack during impulse #5, I can take either an Air or Land Action (depending on which offers the best options) and reorganize all the units I'll need for the next attempt.

3. Also, if the current attack fails, I'll have HQ-A Rundstedt nearby to attempt HQ-Support as part of the next attempt.

I'm determined to take Gibraltar this turn, if at all possible. That means I have to force the CW to use up its Shore Bombardment and its sealift capabilities (for reinforcement) on my terms. I think this "strange" decision will allow me to do that.
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In the event that I succeed in the current attack, it means I've gambled with my HQs . . . and still won!

So they end up disorganized "unnecessarily". Big deal. I can hold on to the O-chit, and start railing/marching people into positions for the "next" war, whatever that might be . . . Morocco, Egypt, USSR, Peru . . . who knows? [;)] I don't actually need my HQs for this task, though it would be nice to have them available. However, I'd rather have Gibraltar.

[Red Prince]

Somewhere around the time that Chungking was coming under attack, I think someone (Orm maybe?) said it was time to pull the Communists back to Lanchow. I thought, at the time, that it was premature, but looking at the situation now, I think you (whoever you were) probably had the right idea. The Communists looked strong, but their flank was very weak, and I had no idea how easy it would be to press hard against it.

This image shows the beginnings of a Communist collapse before Land Combat Declarations. Rest assured, that Lanchow Warlord doesn't stand a chance.

[composer99]

FTR can intercept at half range and return to base at full range, if I recall the rules correctly. The South African FTR should probably have had the range to base in Gib, intercept a ground strike, avoid the poor odds air combat, and return to base to Morocco.

Also, as far as sending a div to Gib goes, I would have sent 1 BB with the cruiser headed for Gib. That would have been enough to absorb damage from the subs in a surface combat (when they are less effective) while dishing out some damage in return, and maybe getting the division through after all.

Oh, the things you don't get to suggest until after the fact... [;)]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

FTR can intercept at half range and return to base at full range, if I recall the rules correctly. The South African FTR should probably have had the range to base in Gib, intercept a ground strike, avoid the poor odds air combat, and return to base to Morocco.

Also, as far as sending a div to Gib goes, I would have sent 1 BB with the cruiser headed for Gib. That would have been enough to absorb damage from the subs in a surface combat (when they are less effective) while dishing out some damage in return, and maybe getting the division through after all.

Oh, the things you don't get to suggest until after the fact... [;)]

Since Spanish Morocco was conquered by Italy, and the only hex controlled by the CW is a mountain hex, the FTR (with a range of 3) could not, in fact, rebase to Morocco after the intercept.
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Edit: Return to base at full range? I don't recall that at all. I'll have to look it up. (When I responded, I mis-read your post -- thus my confusion).
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RAC 14.1.1 Range
...
Reduced range
A fighter flying an interception mission flies with only half its printed range. It has its full range for
returning to base after the mission. Any aircraft unit flying a naval air interception mission flies with only half its
printed range.

Too many rules . . . just too many rules . . . [:(]

[Red Prince]

If you are eagerly awaiting the Gibraltar attack resolution, please be patient. I've been recalculating the odds, because I've started to worry about the chance that I'll end up with 22 CW naval units trapped in the Med if I use their shore bombardment factors and Gibraltar falls this turn . . . because Suez does not look like it's going to last the turn either.

Only 1 of the 4 hexes marked here needs to be occupied by an Italian land unit in order to close the Suez Canal. If that happens before this turn ends (likely) and Gibraltar falls (also likely), any CW units in the Med will be trapped there for a long time. Right now there are 31 CW naval units in the Med: 22 in the W. Med and 9 in the E. Med sea areas. That's 1/3 of the total fleet.



I held back the remaining fleet in Gibraltar to add support next impulse, if it was needed and/or to crush whatever remained of the Italian fleet in the W. Med after this impulse. Unfortunately, the CW couldn't find them, and there's a 40% chance (probably) of Gibraltar falling this impulse. I really don't think it can last the turn.

If I skip the shore bombardment, the chances of Gibraltar falling go up to 50%, but it lets the fleet evacuate the Med. If it survives, though, it allows the fleet that's still in Gibraltar to get into Cape St. Vincent next impulse (a Combined, probably) to provide some shore bombardment.

I don't know which way to go, but I'm leaning toward saving the fleet.

If you have comments, please make them soon. [&:]

[WIF_Killzone]

Got any transports in Gibralter, take the troops and head to Alexandria.