MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: WIF_Killzone

Got any transports in Gibralter, take the troops and head to Alexandria.

No, I don't. My TRS are currently:

1. in the Red Sea with a MIL waiting for the chance to debark into Suez
2. in the E. Coast, loaded with the Canadian TERR
3. in the Cape St. Vincent 0 Box, having transported the RSA FTR last impulse
4. in the Cape St. Vincent 2 Box, with the intention of reorganizing units in Gibraltar during the next impulse, which was supposed to be a Land Action, but may have to be a Combined one instead . . . or a Naval Action if I am feeling desperate.

Right now, Orm and I are trying to figure out what should be done. That means figuring out exactly how far the W. Med fleet can rebase or naval move before Suez gets closed, in the case that Gibraltar falls. That will help determine if any/all shore bombardment gets used this impulse in Gibraltar.
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Edit: Not to mention that it is all beside the point at the moment. I am now at the Defender Shore Bombardment sub-phase of Land Combat Declaration, trying to figure out what to do.

[WIF_Killzone]

Its hard to see a really clear picture of the situation, but, is there any way you can start to mobile the four transports in Britain, for an eventual debarkation of the units near Tangiers to suez (or Gibralter of things go well), you can't lose Suez....but you can lose Casablanca

[Red Prince]

I've been reviewing the situation, and you can see the ships I'm talking about below.

Here's the problem:

If I don't use their bombardment factors, the chance of losing Gibraltar goes from 40% to 50%, but the units can then move back to Gibraltar next impulse. Unfortunately, they can't go anywhere else outside the Med because they are in the 4 Box. If they return to Gibraltar, they end up disorganized. If (when) Gibraltar falls, that means a 10% chance of being captured, a 40% chance of being destroyed, and a 50% chance of escaping to fight another day. So, the odds in this case suggest that 11 ships will survive.

On the flip side, if I do use their bombardment factors, if Gibraltar and Suez both fall this turn, they have just 4 turns of life left in them as they slowly move down the sea box sections until they must return to base. Currently, there are ports available that they can go to . . . but by the time this happens, there won't be enough left for more than 4-8 naval units. In that case, at most, 8 ships survive.

On the third side . . . just realized there was another side . . . if I don't use their bombardment and Gibraltar falls now, using Naval or Combined Actions, they can move down a box each impulse. As long as the Suez Canal remains open, they might get into a low enough box to escape to Aden.

So, how important is that extra 10% chance of repelling the attack on Gibraltar?

[Red Prince]

Okay, folks. A decision has been reached.

After long and hard souls searching, and some even more difficult rules searching, Orm has helped me decide that I need to try to save the fleet. That means no Defensive Shore Bombardment for Gibraltar, and let the chips (or ships) fall where they may.

The next step is to hold either the Suez Canal or Gibraltar as long as possible so that these ships can move down a few sea boxes and get out of the Med.
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Edit: Good news, all! Orm has just reminded me that ships can move down as many sea boxes as they like in an impulse if they are available to move at all. That means I only need to hold one of these for a single impulse, and that should be more than easy to do. Two impulses would be better, but I'll settle for one.

And now, at long last, on to the attacks . . .

[Red Prince]

About time I got around to this, isn't it? The attacks for this impulse . . .

But first things first: I re-read the Blitz Bonus rules, and here's what they say:

There are 4 changes to the combat calculations when the Blitz Bonus is in effect:
• 1 is subtracted for attacking a 2 or 3 factory stack.
• 1 is added to the die roll for each two attacking armor, mechanized, and HQ-A units conducting a blitzkrieg
attack against a non-city clear or desert hex in fine weather.
• 1 is subtracted from the die roll per defending armor, mechanized, and HQ-A in a non- city clear or desert
hex in fine weather.
• 1 is added to the die roll for each unit that paradrops (after air to air combat and anti aircraft fire, if any).

I had to check on this, because I was confused about the non-clear hex thing. It doesn't apply to Paradrops, only to Blitz attacks using ARM/MECH units. Unfortunately, this means I've been working under false assumptions . . . this adds yet another 10% to the chance of success for this attack. Oh, well, rules confusion happens over-the-table even among the most knowledgeable players, so I don't feel too bad about it.

The second thing you'll notice is that the notional shows as adding nothing to the defense. This is an error that has already been corrected, but it hasn't yet been added in a patch. It's easy to work around in this case; since a 39:26 attack is exactly 3:2 odds, all I have to do is "cheat" so that the Fractional Odds roll doesn't help the attackers. That makes sure it stays at 3:2 odds, just where it should be.

So, the attacks:



And the results:

Attack on China [79, 133]; Assault, Fractional Odds .248 (Yes), Roll = 7 = */2S
Attack on Gibraltar; Assault, Roll = 5+4 = 9 = 1/2 (9-4 INF Destroyed, attackers disorganized); USE-3 (+1 chit, 292 [3])
.....A-22 Maryland (LND), Vildebeest (NAV) overrun and Destroyed
.....3 x BB rebased to Casablanca, 4 x BB rebased to Mogador, CA and 2 x CL rebased to Santa Cruz (Canary Islands)

Don't really know what to say about this. I'm sure others will have a lot to say about it. [:)]

The Med is now half-closed, and the CW is going to have to get its fleet out by way of Suez, which means holding it for at least 2 more impulses, and that shouldn't be a problem. Germany did pay a price for taking Gibraltar, though. The odds were very low that the US would draw another '3' chit this year. Well, actually the odds were the same as before, but the odds for a '3' are low for 1940, only 17% and including the draw when France was conquered, the USA has done it twice so far. US Entry is starting to look very bad for the Axis again.

This definitely suggests that Japan should try to finish off the Communists, but hold back near Kunming. A conquered China is not a good thing just yet. In fact, if the chit draws that are going to happen this turn (due to Chinese cities taken, and possibly Suez, too) get too high, the USA might be in position to Pass War Appropriations at the end of S/O '40 . . . something I doubted would be possible only 4 or 5 impulses ago.

Amazing how the winds can change, isn't it?

[Red Prince]

Here are the latest US Entry Pools:

[composer99]

Given the tension shortage in the Japan pool I don't see US passing War Appropriations until Nov/Dec 1940. On the other hand, that's still very early and means the US could be in the war in early 1941, still very early.

[composer99]

Also, while I have already mentioned it upthread, I feel it bears emphatic repeating - any more chits the US draws in 1940 for generic US entry draws should go vs Japan, particularly given the need for the US to boost Japanese tension.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Also, while I have already mentioned it upthread, I feel it bears emphatic repeating - any more chits the US draws in 1940 for generic US entry draws should go vs Japan, particularly given the need for the US to boost Japanese tension.

Thanks. Believe it or not, I was going to search for that post at the end of this turn, because I'd forgotten which way you said it should go. [:)]

[Centuur]

There's good news and bad news:

Here's the bad news:
The mistake you made as the CW, while defending Gibraltar:

From RAW:
"At the end of the attack declaration step (see 11.16.1), you can state
that your notional unit is to be ignored".

This was one of the cases where you always should say that the notional unit has to be ignored...
The added modifier for the die roll in this case was just enough for Germany to take the hex...

And now the good news...

I made a jugdment error in not looking at the situation in Egypt. I got the impression that the Italians weren't capable of cutting the Suez canal this turn. If I had seen that, I wouldn't have given the advise to attack the Italians in the Western Med...



 

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur
Here's the bad news:
The mistake you made as the CW, while defending Gibraltar:

From RAW:
"At the end of the attack declaration step (see 11.16.1), you can state
that your notional unit is to be ignored".

This was one of the cases where you always should say that the notional unit has to be ignored...
The added modifier for the die roll in this case was just enough for Germany to take the hex...

Yeah, Orm pointed this one out to me, too, but by the time we were trying to figure out what to do with Shore Bombardment I was already beyond that decision point. I'm gonna start using this as one of my new mottos:

Too many rules . . . too many rules . . . [:)]

And now the good news...

I made a jugdment error in not looking at the situation in Egypt. I got the impression that the Italians weren't capable of cutting the Suez canal this turn. If I had seen that, I wouldn't have given the advise to attack the Italians in the Western Med...

You weren't the only one. In fact, I used a slight variation on a plan Steve proposed. The variation had little impact on the potential damage results -- only improving the potential damage the CW might take . . . and in the end, it didn't matter what I did, because the CW can't seem to roll worth *bleep* in the W. Med when it comes to searches.

I think the mistake we all made was in not realizing that a strong attack could be made this impulse on Gibraltar. Composer99 was right that I probably should have risked bringing the INF Division over from Plymouth, but in the end the result would have been the same . . . might have bought an extra impulse, or thereabouts.

Oddly enough, Orm and I were talking about the fact today that Egypt has been largely ignored as a potential problem (though I think I've shown the situation there most impulses, or at least described it). I'm paying hard for the sealift trouble I created at the start.

However, even if Suez falls, I'm fairly certain almost the entire CW fleet should be able to get out safely. I'm going to have to take a dreaded Combined Action to get it done, but with Gibraltar gone, that's less of an issue. I'm certain I can keep the Italians out of those hexes for at least 2 more allied impulses . . . one to drop down some sea boxes in the Combined Action and to unload the Indian MIL into Suez, and another to evacuate the fleet to Aden.

Either way, the USA is going to enter the war earlier than it did in actual history, and that means that it will have a much longer period to build up and deploy its forces to destroy the Axis. This game certainly isn't over yet. As long as the USA is around and Sea Lion doesn't happen, the Allies can still win. If my defensive abilities are lacking (and we all know they are), just think what will happen in '43 or '44 when the USA and CW begin returning to Europe in force . . . and not just the "distraction" invasions they'll be able to make in '42.

[composer99]

Here's two pieces of good news for the Allies (in a game that has largely been bereft of same):

(1) Thanks to the early first Gear Up, production for the Allies has slightly edged out Axis production, even with China crippled. Normally in the dog days of mid- to late-1940 the Axis has the edge because France is down and the USA hasn't geared up.

(2) If indeed the US gets War Appropriations off in Nov/Dec as I think is the most likely outcome, and gets into the war by, say, Mar/Apr 1941, it will be a beast. 30 bps/turn by Nov/Dec 1940, 50 bps/turn by Mar/Apr 1941, and +10 bps/turn every Nov/Dec following?

Unless the Axis knocks either UK or USSR out in 1941 they'll be hard pressed to stop that juggernaut.

With Gibraltar gone the CW has to try and preserve a land base in Cape St Vincent (that is, Morocco) onto which plentiful American troops & aircraft can be poured in 1941. This won't be feasible if the Axis go in strength to Morocco (which they can do quite easily). Otherwise they have to work to establish naval superiority in Cape St Vincent and Bay of Biscay to allow CW/US forces to land up and down the coast of Iberia & Morocco.

[composer99]

However, even if Suez falls, I'm fairly certain almost the entire CW fleet should be able to get out safely. I'm going to have to take a dreaded Combined Action to get it done, but with Gibraltar gone, that's less of an issue. I'm certain I can keep the Italians out of those hexes for at least 2 more allied impulses . . . one to drop down some sea boxes in the Combined Action and to unload the Indian MIL into Suez, and another to evacuate the fleet to Aden.

(From Red Prince #791)

I must admit I am a bit baffled that Combineds are 'dreaded' in the early part of the game (I do realise this came from advice upthread). In 1939-1941 the CW often simply has very few land forces and few theatres of active land activity and, after the initial naval impulse to deploy convoy defences, often has few naval moves to make.

Now, by contrast, from 1942 on as Allied forces build up it becomes increasingly more important to perform non-combined impulses (one player I met at a WiFCon described how a US or CW combined in 1942+ is a mini-win for the Axis, with the exception of super-combined impulses, of course). This may also apply to the US by mid-1941 given its increased production compared to typical games.

Other players' mileage may vary, of course.

[composer99]

Edit: double post deleted

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Here's two pieces of good news for the Allies (in a game that has largely been bereft of same):

(1) Thanks to the early first Gear Up, production for the Allies has slightly edged out Axis production, even with China crippled. Normally in the dog days of mid- to late-1940 the Axis has the edge because France is down and the USA hasn't geared up.

(2) If indeed the US gets War Appropriations off in Nov/Dec as I think is the most likely outcome, and gets into the war by, say, Mar/Apr 1941, it will be a beast. 30 bps/turn by Nov/Dec 1940, 50 bps/turn by Mar/Apr 1941, and +10 bps/turn every Nov/Dec following?

Unless the Axis knocks either UK or USSR out in 1941 they'll be hard pressed to stop that juggernaut.

If I am calculating this correctly, the USA should be producing 120 BP per turn in the final year (1948) of the game. That's just insane, and I suspect that even if the USSR does fall in 1941-2, Germany and Japan (oh, and little brother Italy, too) will have a hard time fighting off the beast.

With Gibraltar gone the CW has to try and preserve a land base in Cape St Vincent (that is, Morocco) onto which plentiful American troops & aircraft can be poured in 1941. This won't be feasible if the Axis go in strength to Morocco (which they can do quite easily). Otherwise they have to work to establish naval superiority in Cape St Vincent and Bay of Biscay to allow CW/US forces to land up and down the coast of Iberia & Morocco.

I really don't know what I should be doing right now . . . attempting to take Morocco away from the Allies? or sending as much armor and infantry as possible over to the Soviet border? I'll probably want to try to get those 4 Corps into the Middle East, too, now that it's likely the Med will be free of interference.

I do have a lot of units in and aroudn Gibraltar that could probably take out the Moroccan base of operations, but it might mean using that O-chit after all to flip all of my HQ units, since the units in both Gibraltar and Tangier are all disorganized. That kind of blocks the way for units to move across. So, the question is this: is Morocco worth 15 BP?

I am betting you'd say "yes", particularly this early in J/A '40. If it can be used to clear Morocco by the end of the turn (or at least Rabat). Then I'd have to start up another O-chit either after the S/O turn or the N/D turn, depending on when I plan to begin the thrashing of the USSR . . .

Thoughts on the German O-chit situation anyone?

[Red Prince]

In the CW Combined Action, I'll need both naval moves to reduce sea box sections in both Med sea areas, but after that, I'm thinking about using the Plymouth fleet against the SUBs instead of the German North Sea Fleet. They are very annoying, sitting there in the Bay of Biscay, and while Rob (warspite1) may object to this, the North Sea is not as strategically important at the moment.

I'd appreciate thoughts on this, as well.

[Centuur]

The question you have to ask yourself first is: when do you want to attack the USSR. Personally, I would aim for an attack in the J/F turn of 1941, if snow comes around.
The reason for this is that, if the USSR defends the way they should, he needs to start a slow withdrawal from the border, since Germany should be able to crack the garrison rating in M/A or M/J. If the USSR forces are then on the border, they are going to be overwhelmed, so they need to start getting into better positions. This also means that the surprise impulse of the turn of DoW is going to be used by moving the Axis forces towards the enemy lines (which are probably around the river near Kiev and around the Smolensk-Minsk area. Just out of reach of the German Stuka's, of course).
The USSR should preserve the main body of the army (especially the airforce and the ARM/MECH/HQ's) by withdrawing them beyond the range of the Luftwaffe. Some so called speed bumps need to be created in cities to hinder the Germans (using low factor combat units).
The long summer turns can than be used by the Axis to attack the Russian army in full (without having to move a lot before getting to them, thus losing impulses in those turns).

To use the offensive chit now, means that you have to rebuild one. That's expensive. However: not attacking Morocco now is also not very desirable, since you've got the opportunity in the remaining impulses of this turn and the next, to clear the area of the CW. A CW who only got 4 or 5 land units in Morocco. There is also to take into account that next turn, the weather in the Med is probably not as bad as on the rest of the map. If I take that into account, I probably would try to grab Morocco next turn, since the German airforce is already in force in the theater. This saves me the offensive chit. Also take into account that Germany and Italy will need a lot of units on garrison duty in the West against possible invasions and partisans.
Offensive chits are so expensive, that I rarely build them before the map is getting full of units. Others probably disagree on that, however: the value of the offensive chit equals the costs of 2 ARM and a MECH div (or 3 LND3 with pilots...). That's an awful lot of build points to spend on something you can use only 1 time in a game. An offensive chit used wisely can have quite an effect on the game, that's true, however: you've grabbed Gibraltar without using one? And how many build point did you destroy with the first offensive chit you've used? Was that chit used in such a way that it was worth the 15 build point? Or would you rather have got that extra killstack on the map? I've come to the conclusion that in early war, the costs for building an offensive chit is to high.

After the capture of Rabat next turn, in the reinforcement stage of N/D 1940, I would simply remove all planes form Morocco/Spain from the map and into the reserve pool and next turn they magically re-appear in Eastern Prussia and Germany... In N/D, you can also start to railmove the HQ's, ARM and MECH from the area towards the USSR border.
So I suggest you use the rest of this turn to capture Suez with the Italians and that's all folks...

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

In the CW Combined Action, I'll need both naval moves to reduce sea box sections in both Med sea areas, but after that, I'm thinking about using the Plymouth fleet against the SUBs instead of the German North Sea Fleet. They are very annoying, sitting there in the Bay of Biscay, and while Rob (warspite1) may object to this, the North Sea is not as strategically important at the moment.

I'd appreciate thoughts on this, as well.

If Germany doesn't decide to use the offensive chit for the reorganisation of the HQ's, he might be tempted to use a combined or even naval impulses to try to get his SUB's into play. This should than mean the CW should be prepared to defend the convoys. Also: the Cape St. Vincent isn't going to be a save place for CW convoys anymore, since the Italian Fleet might sortie from Gibraltar next turn, aimed at the CW shipping line. You need to review the total CW convoy deployment. You've to calculate how you are going to get the highest number of resources into the UK, without having convoys in the Bay of Biscay or Cape St. Vincent. If you don't, coming winter might see a lot of convoy points killed by German and Italians surface and Sub raids.

[composer99]

I would generally concur with Centuur on the following:
(1) Under the circumstances, a Jan/Feb 1941 DoW seems ideal, especially if the USSR is defending in the rear and can't hold the pact.
(2) Whether or not you use the o-chit, building one at this stage may not be worth it (I should add that if the USSR defends in the rear and runs you may not need to use an o-chit vs USSR at all in 1941).

I would quibble that moving army units to Poland & Rumania for the Eastern campaign has to begin sooner than N/D 1940 if you want to start right away in 1941.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

The question you have to ask yourself first is: when do you want to attack the USSR. Personally, I would aim for an attack in the J/F turn of 1941, if snow comes around.
The reason for this is that, if the USSR defends the way they should, he needs to start a slow withdrawal from the border, since Germany should be able to crack the garrison rating in M/A or M/J. If the USSR forces are then on the border, they are going to be overwhelmed, so they need to start getting into better positions. This also means that the surprise impulse of the turn of DoW is going to be used by moving the Axis forces towards the enemy lines (which are probably around the river near Kiev and around the Smolensk-Minsk area. Just out of reach of the German Stuka's, of course).
The USSR should preserve the main body of the army (especially the airforce and the ARM/MECH/HQ's) by withdrawing them beyond the range of the Luftwaffe. Some so called speed bumps need to be created in cities to hinder the Germans (using low factor combat units).
The long summer turns can than be used by the Axis to attack the Russian army in full (without having to move a lot before getting to them, thus losing impulses in those turns).

To use the offensive chit now, means that you have to rebuild one. That's expensive. However: not attacking Morocco now is also not very desirable, since you've got the opportunity in the remaining impulses of this turn and the next, to clear the area of the CW. A CW who only got 4 or 5 land units in Morocco. There is also to take into account that next turn, the weather in the Med is probably not as bad as on the rest of the map. If I take that into account, I probably would try to grab Morocco next turn, since the German airforce is already in force in the theater. This saves me the offensive chit. Also take into account that Germany and Italy will need a lot of units on garrison duty in the West against possible invasions and partisans.
Offensive chits are so expensive, that I rarely build them before the map is getting full of units. Others probably disagree on that, however: the value of the offensive chit equals the costs of 2 ARM and a MECH div (or 3 LND3 with pilots...). That's an awful lot of build points to spend on something you can use only 1 time in a game. An offensive chit used wisely can have quite an effect on the game, that's true, however: you've grabbed Gibraltar without using one? And how many build point did you destroy with the first offensive chit you've used? Was that chit used in such a way that it was worth the 15 build point? Or would you rather have got that extra killstack on the map? I've come to the conclusion that in early war, the costs for building an offensive chit is to high.

After the capture of Rabat next turn, in the reinforcement stage of N/D 1940, I would simply remove all planes form Morocco/Spain from the map and into the reserve pool and next turn they magically re-appear in Eastern Prussia and Germany... In N/D, you can also start to railmove the HQ's, ARM and MECH from the area towards the USSR border.
So I suggest you use the rest of this turn to capture Suez with the Italians and that's all folks...

That's a good plan, but has a single flaw . . . you can only remove air units from the map if they are in home country cities, so I'd have to rebase them to Germany anyway. Other than that, it really doesn't tell me what should be done with the German units for the rest of the turn. If they are going to be needed in Morocco for S/O, then I can't start moving them back from that front . . . it seems a waste of a good summer to just sit in Spain. Besides, since the BB were forced to rebase to Moroccan ports, it's a potential opportunity to capture a few CW naval units or destroy them.

Yes, I know I should have rebased them farther from this dangerous front. but I didn't. I can "fix" that, if it seems necessary, and I probably should. I expect I'll send them to some Caribbean Island, perhaps. The honest reason I rebased them to Moroccan ports is that it took me 4 hours to figure out the correct course of action for the attack on Gibraltar, and I was too tired to deal with the interception bug I mentioned in an earlier post. I didn't bother to think of what Germany might do next.

So, if it looks as though Germany is going to be a threat to them this turn, I can "cheat" on behalf of the CW to fix this error in judgement and all will be well in the world.

I'm actually leaning toward flipping my HQs, taking a Land Action to get frontline land units reorganized, and then probably an Air Action to get my bombers flying again (though I still have several available and might not need to do this). I'd like to be able to take Rabat and Casablanca before the turn ends. Getting to Mogador is certain to require an HQ in Morocco, and the sooner all of this is taken care of, the better.

One more reason why I think I should press the attack now: With the CW losing ports all the way from Plymouth to Tangier, taking the last two on Cape St. Vincent puts them in a very difficult position for convoy protection.