OT: Corona virus

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.

In theory. In practice, quite different as there's someone desperate enough to work under poor conditions. As others have stated, it's not as if corporate interests were strongly interested in working conditions prior to all this...

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.

It is a crappy job. I would rather pick fruit or cut lettuce or push a broom at a work site.

I don't know, as an entry level job it teaches skills...I can see climbing the ladder to a grocery store butcher. In my neck of the woods that is a very good career for someone lacking a technical college degree. I know several grocery store butchers that went on to open their own small stores...I suspect that might be a bit suspect now though.

It is not for everyone, but as a boy growing up we were always cleaning fish to eat. That has probably changed over the years.

I genuinely struggle to imagine any serious career progression from something like a meat packing plant.

Granted, there will be some decent progression through the ranks so to speak, but let's not pretend that it is the norm for some guy on the factory floor will be CEO in twenty years time.

As far as the meat packing goes, one place where a lot of undocumented (illegal immigrant) workers were gone, the line for applicants stretched around the block. That was in the densely populated state of Iowa. That was just one situation, there are others.

As far as that kind of job, it is an incentive to better yourself to get a better job. Either in pay or working conditions. It does teach valuable job skills like being at a certain place, at a certain time, and be ready to work. Sadly, too many people don't have those skills.

I could post other things, but that could get difficult. PMs are welcomed to discuss things.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The market solution is for maltreated workers to quit and for the employer to be forced to raise wages until they can find a workforce willing to do the job.

In theory. In practice, quite different as there's someone desperate enough to work under poor conditions. As others have stated, it's not as if corporate interests were strongly interested in working conditions prior to all this...

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



I don't know, as an entry level job it teaches skills...I can see climbing the ladder to a grocery store butcher. In my neck of the woods that is a very good career for someone lacking a technical college degree. I know several grocery store butchers that went on to open their own small stores...I suspect that might be a bit suspect now though.

It is not for everyone, but as a boy growing up we were always cleaning fish to eat. That has probably changed over the years.

I genuinely struggle to imagine any serious career progression from something like a meat packing plant.

Granted, there will be some decent progression through the ranks so to speak, but let's not pretend that it is the norm for some guy on the factory floor will be CEO in twenty years time.

As far as the meat packing goes, one place where a lot of undocumented (illegal immigrant) workers were gone, the line for applicants stretched around the block. That was in the densely populated state of Iowa. That was just one situation, there are others.

As far as that kind of job, it is an incentive to better yourself to get a better job. Either in pay or working conditions. It does teach valuable job skills like being at a certain place, at a certain time, and be ready to work. Sadly, too many people don't have those skills.

I could post other things, but that could get difficult. PMs are welcomed to discuss things.

Yeah...about that. You've seen the current unemployment rate right? Where are these "better jobs"?

I think you've a narrow view on it - skills is absolutely a component, but there needs to be opportunity to apply those skills. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it's a challenge for, say, meat plant workers to get a new suit (and that assumes that the job is local and doesn't involve any transport costs).

The "bootstraps" narrative hasn't been working as many think it does for quite some time...

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing




In theory. In practice, quite different as there's someone desperate enough to work under poor conditions. As others have stated, it's not as if corporate interests were strongly interested in working conditions prior to all this...




I genuinely struggle to imagine any serious career progression from something like a meat packing plant.

Granted, there will be some decent progression through the ranks so to speak, but let's not pretend that it is the norm for some guy on the factory floor will be CEO in twenty years time.

As far as the meat packing goes, one place where a lot of undocumented (illegal immigrant) workers were gone, the line for applicants stretched around the block. That was in the densely populated state of Iowa. That was just one situation, there are others.

As far as that kind of job, it is an incentive to better yourself to get a better job. Either in pay or working conditions. It does teach valuable job skills like being at a certain place, at a certain time, and be ready to work. Sadly, too many people don't have those skills.

I could post other things, but that could get difficult. PMs are welcomed to discuss things.

Yeah...about that. You've seen the current unemployment rate right? Where are these "better jobs"?

I think you've a narrow view on it - skills is absolutely a component, but there needs to be opportunity to apply those skills. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it's a challenge for, say, meat plant workers to get a new suit (and that assumes that the job is local and doesn't involve any transport costs).

The "bootstraps" narrative hasn't been working as many think it does for quite some time...

Well then, since the economies are not going to get better, quit letting in the immigrants. Especially since so many are going to decide to retire early, there won't be any job openings. Nope, none at all.

There are places that accept donated clothing for job seekers.

I read where a lot of employers would rather hire someone who had a job that was beneath their skills when there weren't better jobs available instead of sitting at home.

As far as people living paycheck to paycheck, is that because they have a house payment, a car payment, a truck payment, a boat payment, an ATV payment and a snowmobile payment? Maybe even more than one ATV and/or snowmobile that they are paying on?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing



Granted, there will be some decent progression through the ranks so to speak, but let's not pretend that it is the norm for some guy on the factory floor will be CEO in twenty years time.

I didn't say that.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe




As far as the meat packing goes, one place where a lot of undocumented (illegal immigrant) workers were gone, the line for applicants stretched around the block. That was in the densely populated state of Iowa. That was just one situation, there are others.

As far as that kind of job, it is an incentive to better yourself to get a better job. Either in pay or working conditions. It does teach valuable job skills like being at a certain place, at a certain time, and be ready to work. Sadly, too many people don't have those skills.

I could post other things, but that could get difficult. PMs are welcomed to discuss things.

Yeah...about that. You've seen the current unemployment rate right? Where are these "better jobs"?

I think you've a narrow view on it - skills is absolutely a component, but there needs to be opportunity to apply those skills. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it's a challenge for, say, meat plant workers to get a new suit (and that assumes that the job is local and doesn't involve any transport costs).

The "bootstraps" narrative hasn't been working as many think it does for quite some time...

Well then, since the economies are not going to get better, quit letting in the immigrants. Especially since so many are going to decide to retire early, there won't be any job openings. Nope, none at all.

Hmm, I think you should think through the ramifications of that policy decision a little more...

There are places that accept donated clothing for job seekers.

Which will not provide universal coverage, but glad you agree that there is more to enhancing employment prospects that just skill.

As far as people living paycheck to paycheck, is that because they have a house payment, a car payment, a truck payment, a boat payment, an ATV payment and a snowmobile payment? Maybe even more than one ATV and/or snowmobile that they are paying on?

Not really the demographic that we're discussing, is it?

Extracts from the linked article:

"51 percent of those making less than $50,000 usually or always live paycheck to paycheck to make ends meet, 73 percent are in debt."

"The majority of workers (81 percent) have worked a minimum wage job, and 71 percent of them were not able to make ends meet financially during that time — more than half (54 percent) had to work more than one job."

So as much as you'd like to think that it's middle-class America spending on the prestige goods, it isn't.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert




Most of that write up focused on N95 masks. Most countries have asked people not use those due to the need by specialists in front line services and medicine.

The article didn't actually include the very relevant statistics about reduction in passing the disease to someone else while using a mask, and the smaller percentage chance of the person wearing to catch something. I posted those earlier in the study. You have to thin about situations that might be different than your own. Here, public transit needs people to wear masks to protect workers and other travellers.

A surgical or cloth mask doesn't restrict your breath and does not give you a higher does of your own Covid (if that is even possible. I'd have to read linked studies to really confirm that but they're only noted, not linked, and not quoted with any statistics). If it's coming out your nose it's already in your nose, so how does that make it more dangerous? [:D]

This is mostly an opinion piece. However masks are required now in many areas for good reason. To protect others even if you don't care whether you catch it.

Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

Why is Sweden not recommending face masks to the public?
https://www.thelocal.se/20200514/explai ... the-public

Thanks. Looks like the first confirms wearing a mask helps. It also calls into question Blaylock's entire premiss as he quotes and states;

“None of the studies established a conclusive relationship between mask/respirator use and protection against influenza infection." Keep in mind, no studies have been done to demonstrate that either a cloth mask or the N95 mask has any effect on transmission of the COVID-19 virus.

This from the study you posted.

We detected coronavirus in respiratory droplets and aerosols in 3 of 10 (30%) and 4 of 10 (40%) of the samples collected without face masks, respectively, but did not detect any virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols collected from participants wearing face masks, this difference was significant in aerosols and showed a trend toward reduced detection in respiratory droplets (Table 1b).

--------------------

We also demonstrated the efficacy of surgical masks to reduce coronavirus detection and viral copies in large respiratory droplets and in aerosols (Table 1b). This has important implications for control of COVID-19, suggesting that surgical face masks could be used by ill people to reduce onward transmission.

The Swedish concern seems more about human behaviour rather than the efficacy of face masks. They state;

"Face masks in public spaces do not provide any greater protection to the population," Johan Carlson from the Swedish Public Health Agency Folkhälsomyndigheten said at a press conference on May 13th.

Swedish health authorities argue that keeping a distance, washing your hands, not touching your face, and staying at home if you experience any symptoms are still the best ways to halt the spread of the coronavirus. There is a concern that wearing face masks would make people follow these guidelines less strictly.

Public spaces most likely means outside, where masks would obviously be less necessary. They failed to mention that masks are most protective of the person next to the person wearing one, rather than the wearer.

The EU infectious disease advice is contrary to Swedish policy, as quoted in this article.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the EU's infectious disease agency, at the start of April advised EU governments that masks could be helpful in reducing transmission.

"A face mask may help reduce the spread of infection in the community by minimising the excretion of respiratory droplets from infected individuals who may not even know they are infected and before they develop any symptoms," it reported.

So please wear face masks. Not for you, but for someone else.

It is amazing to read how very little we know on the subject, and I am referring to the CDC study recently released.

There is a reason why the CDC was initially against facemasks for the general populace to begin with.

Not mentioned in any of these studies is the, for lack of a better phrase, placebo effect. Being powerless sucks, and if you are only told not to touch your face and wash your hands, well that is not very satisfying. Wearing a facemask though is a huge public statement that is also inconvenient. You are in effect making a statement, and feel that you are being proactive and making a sacrifice to beat the virus. For a lot of people that feels really good.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Of course this is true and I'm sure most of the people that work in these places are trying to better their situation or if not for them, for their children. The problem is the world has changed overnight and the worker got the short end of things fairly quickly. The plants got shut down because people were getting sick. That's the right thing to do. It's what happened after that that is troubling.

As for crappy jobs? We have all had them. Ever see the guy on the road crew raking the hot asphalt out of the truck and onto the road on a blasting hot day? That was me one summer. Got great money for that......but my grades got a lot better the next semester. I don't mind a hard days work but I wasn't going to do manual labor for the rest of my life. Meat packing has a large percentage of 1st generation immigrants working those jobs. Also part of the America story. Last guy in gets the jobs nobody else wants to do, but you want better for the next generation.

Lols, John. My older brother had the same job. He said the only upside was once they came across a case of beer some underage drinkers stashed one day.[:)]

My first job was as a dishwasher. If you have just a little bit of drive and ambition you aren't stuck in that entry level job for long. I well remember my first holiday busboy earnings.

Back to meatpackers, 70% of teh beef consumed in the US is from UFCW plants. A pretty impressive number.

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: mind_messing




In theory. In practice, quite different as there's someone desperate enough to work under poor conditions. As others have stated, it's not as if corporate interests were strongly interested in working conditions prior to all this...




I genuinely struggle to imagine any serious career progression from something like a meat packing plant.

Granted, there will be some decent progression through the ranks so to speak, but let's not pretend that it is the norm for some guy on the factory floor will be CEO in twenty years time.

As far as the meat packing goes, one place where a lot of undocumented (illegal immigrant) workers were gone, the line for applicants stretched around the block. That was in the densely populated state of Iowa. That was just one situation, there are others.

As far as that kind of job, it is an incentive to better yourself to get a better job. Either in pay or working conditions. It does teach valuable job skills like being at a certain place, at a certain time, and be ready to work. Sadly, too many people don't have those skills.

I could post other things, but that could get difficult. PMs are welcomed to discuss things.

Yeah...about that. You've seen the current unemployment rate right? Where are these "better jobs"?

I think you've a narrow view on it - skills is absolutely a component, but there needs to be an opportunity to apply those skills. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it's a challenge for, say, meat plant workers to get a new suit (and that assumes that the job is local and doesn't involve any transport costs).

The "bootstraps" narrative hasn't been working as many think it does for quite some time...

I think most people sleepwalk through life. By that I mean that, as they go about their daily affairs, opportunities arise and they take what is available instead of taking the time to plan a life. I submit that the primary word to focus on in the preamble is "pursuit" as it applies to pursuit of happiness.

What do you want to be when you grow up? A plumber makes good coin. So does a weilder. the IT field has paid well. In California, within the community college and universities, the coin has been good to. In the end it is encumbent upon each of us to identify what we want and pursue it. I worked two part-time jobs and went to school full time when I was young. It paid off for me. Now in my case I was single and w/o children. In the state of California anyone can go to community college pretty much for free for their first two years of school. I know that you can take wielding classes and knock out a certification in less than a year. I know that you can go to school for driving a tractor-trailer - 3-5k and you can be on the road in about 6 weeks.
There are so many options available for us here in America. I assume the same is try in Europe and other parts of the world.

I don't have problems with a bootstrap approach. Hell - join the Peace Corps or the military for a 3-year stint.

I think that state and federal governments are still hoping that once we step back from the "Shelter-at-home" thing, businesses will perk up, people will start news businesses to take advantage of the misfortunes of others in the restaurant and hospitality sectors, and life will be great again.

I wish Trump would give me a call. I could really-really help him out... <wry grin>.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Another explanation of why wearing masks help stop the spread. Not entirely sure it this works for girls too

I think the write-up Lowpe posted (#7765) is much more convincing.

Most of that write up focused on N95 masks. I got the impression that a number of the figures he cited from studies were of surgeons and nurses wearing surgical masks during surgeries, not N95 masks. Most countries have asked people not use those due to the need by specialists in front line services and medicine.

The article didn't actually include the very relevant statistics about reduction in passing the disease to someone else while using a mask, and the smaller percentage chance of the person wearing to catch something. I posted those earlier in the study. You have to thin about situations that might be different than your own. Here, public transit needs people to wear masks to protect workers and other travellers.

A surgical or cloth mask doesn't restrict your breath and does not give you a higher does of your own Covid (if that is even possible. I'd have to read linked studies to really confirm that but they're only noted, not linked, and not quoted with any statistics). If it's coming out your nose it's already in your nose, so how does that make it more dangerous? [:D] He explained how containing it could often result in it being introduced into the brain through the olefactory nerves.

This is mostly an opinion piece. However masks are required now in many areas for good reason. To protect others even if you don't care whether you catch it.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Of course this is true and I'm sure most of the people that work in these places are trying to better their situation or if not for them, for their children. The problem is the world has changed overnight and the worker got the short end of things fairly quickly. The plants got shut down because people were getting sick. That's the right thing to do. It's what happened after that that is troubling.

As for crappy jobs? We have all had them. Ever see the guy on the road crew raking the hot asphalt out of the truck and onto the road on a blasting hot day? That was me one summer. Got great money for that......but my grades got a lot better the next semester. I don't mind a hard days work but I wasn't going to do manual labor for the rest of my life. Meat packing has a large percentage of 1st generation immigrants working those jobs. Also part of the America story. Last guy in gets the jobs nobody else wants to do, but you want better for the next generation.

Lols, John. My older brother had the same job. He said the only upside was once they came across a case of beer some underage drinkers stashed one day.[:)]

My first job was as a dishwasher. If you have just a little bit of drive and ambition you aren't stuck in that entry level job for long. I well remember my first holiday busboy earnings.

Back to meatpackers, 70% of teh beef consumed in the US is from UFCW plants. A pretty impressive number.

I used to teach a programming class and would get people from all over the world but made it to this country either by H1-B visa or by sheer force of will. These were smart, driven people, some from nasty parts of the world. That was one of my ice breaker questions. What is the worst job you ever had? Oh the things I heard. I suspect teaching those classes had more effect on me than the people I was teaching. The saddest answer, and one I got a few times, was "Worst job I ever had was no job". One answer stuck out. A guy from Trinidad. He was lucky to get a job at the Aluminum plant. This was in Trinidad. Hot as hell. His job? They gave him a broom and for 10 hours a day he was to stamp out the embers from the plant that might light the underbrush on fire surrounding the plant. Makes you realize you hit half the lottery just being born here.

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Of course this is true and I'm sure most of the people that work in these places are trying to better their situation or if not for them, for their children. The problem is the world has changed overnight and the worker got the short end of things fairly quickly. The plants got shut down because people were getting sick. That's the right thing to do. It's what happened after that that is troubling.

As for crappy jobs? We have all had them. Ever see the guy on the road crew raking the hot asphalt out of the truck and onto the road on a blasting hot day? That was me one summer. Got great money for that......but my grades got a lot better the next semester. I don't mind a hard days work but I wasn't going to do manual labor for the rest of my life. Meat packing has a large percentage of 1st generation immigrants working those jobs. Also part of the America story. Last guy in gets the jobs nobody else wants to do, but you want better for the next generation.

Lols, John. My older brother had the same job. He said the only upside was once they came across a case of beer some underage drinkers stashed one day.[:)]

My first job was as a dishwasher. If you have just a little bit of drive and ambition you aren't stuck in that entry level job for long. I well remember my first holiday busboy earnings.

Back to meatpackers, 70% of teh beef consumed in the US is from UFCW plants. A pretty impressive number.

I used to teach a programming class and would get people from all over the world but made it to this country either by H1-B visa or by sheer force of will. These were smart, driven people, some from nasty parts of the world. That was one of my ice breaker questions. What is the worst job you ever had? Oh the things I heard. I suspect teaching those classes had more effect on me than the people I was teaching. The saddest answer, and one I got a few times, was "Worst job I ever had was no job". One answer stuck out. A guy from Trinidad. He was lucky to get a job at the Aluminum plant. This was in Trinidad. Hot as hell. His job? They gave him a broom and for 10 hours a day he was to stamp out the embers from the plant that might light the underbrush on fire surrounding the plant. Makes you realize you hit half the lottery just being born here.

Amen to that!

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe




As far as the meat packing goes, one place where a lot of undocumented (illegal immigrant) workers were gone, the line for applicants stretched around the block. That was in the densely populated state of Iowa. That was just one situation, there are others.

As far as that kind of job, it is an incentive to better yourself to get a better job. Either in pay or working conditions. It does teach valuable job skills like being at a certain place, at a certain time, and be ready to work. Sadly, too many people don't have those skills.

I could post other things, but that could get difficult. PMs are welcomed to discuss things.

Yeah...about that. You've seen the current unemployment rate right? Where are these "better jobs"?

I think you've a narrow view on it - skills is absolutely a component, but there needs to be an opportunity to apply those skills. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it's a challenge for, say, meat plant workers to get a new suit (and that assumes that the job is local and doesn't involve any transport costs).

The "bootstraps" narrative hasn't been working as many think it does for quite some time...

I think most people sleepwalk through life. By that I mean that, as they go about their daily affairs, opportunities arise and they take what is available instead of taking the time to plan a life. I submit that the primary word to focus on in the preamble is "pursuit" as it applies to pursuit of happiness.

I see where you're coming from, but I think being able to "plan" life is a luxury that comparatively few people are genuinely afforded. You get dealt the hand you play when you're born, and that then feeds in to anything else that follows on.

What do you want to be when you grow up? A plumber makes good coin. So does a weilder. the IT field has paid well. In California, within the community college and universities, the coin has been good to. In the end it is encumbent upon each of us to identify what we want and pursue it. I worked two part-time jobs and went to school full time when I was young. It paid off for me. Now in my case I was single and w/o children. In the state of California anyone can go to community college pretty much for free for their first two years of school. I know that you can take wielding classes and knock out a certification in less than a year. I know that you can go to school for driving a tractor-trailer - 3-5k and you can be on the road in about 6 weeks.
There are so many options available for us here in America. I assume the same is try in Europe and other parts of the world.

Of course, the options are there.

What was interesting from the PNAS (what a truly unfortunate acronym...) paper was the fact that the inequalities in social mobility have really been thrown in the spotlight in recent years in the US.

Plus, as the paper states, the notion of opportunity clashes quite harshly with the evidence that your socio-economic outcomes reflect your socio-economic origins...

I don't have problems with a bootstrap approach. Hell - join the Peace Corps or the military for a 3-year stint.

I don't think anyone does - the problem is the evidence that suggests it's not an approach that's working as people think it should.

FWIW, having socio-economic progression driven by a term of service in either an organisation like the Peace Corps or the military reeks of Robert Heinlein - not quite sure I'd approve.

I think that state and federal governments are still hoping that once we step back from the "Shelter-at-home" thing, businesses will perk up, people will start news businesses to take advantage of the misfortunes of others in the restaurant and hospitality sectors, and life will be great again.

There certainly will be keen entrepreneurs there to exploit a very fluid situation in a quick manner (eg converting closed restaurants to takeaway eating, adapting to physical distancing, etc), but I think it will not make up for what is a gutted sector. Given how much income is driven by foot-traffic and wider events (theatre, concerts etc), it doesn't look good...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



I posted this before, but I believe Obvert was busy with other things.[:)]

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Maybe you could give a little context to why you're posing the link with me in mind?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

"Worst job I ever had was no job".

That is so sad.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



I posted this before, but I believe Obvert was busy with other things.[:)]

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Maybe you could give a little context to why you're posing the link with me in mind?

Because it talks about several factors, two of which (masks, droplets) you might find relevant and interesting, and that you probably missed the original post because you were having a baby.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth



I' sure you will see lots of changes in the way deaths are counted or if they are counted at all. Nebraska doesn't count the sick at the meat packing plants because it makes the rest of the state look bad. Not sure if they are counting the dead in those places. Florida only counts you dead from Corona if you are are a citizen of the State of Florida. If you are from out of state you don't count. Florida has hid lots of the nursing home deaths too. FOIA requests eventually get them but they have made a conscious effort to hide numbers. Every State seems to be not reporting nursing home deaths accurately. CDC official numbers are much lower than Johns Hopkins. They say it takes 3 weeks to tally the numbers but who knows? Once there are many truths who can tell any more?

I hate to ask this but I'm totally curious - is this a red state VS blue state thing in regards to reporting? Do you think some states are inflating their numbers?

I believe that the CDC requested all deaths, no matter the underlying cause(s), to be labelled a primary covid death if the person is tested or presumed to have covid. They are still free to assign co-moribidity causes.

Colorado's Governor is a Democrat.

In the best of times, the causes of death is wrong at least 33% of the time, going over 50% of the time in certain states.

Occam's razor I think holds primarily true and it is not a red/blue state thing.

Here is an article on it:

Just How Inflated Are Coronavirus Death Counts, Exactly?
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/t ... ly-n394897

Here are several articles detailing the trail of conservative media's campaign to cast doubt on the death counts from Covid.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/ ... 1f441a57d5


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/0 ... rus-241819

An increasing number of conservatives are convinced the medical community and the media are inflating the coronavirus death toll for political purposes, despite nearly all evidence indicating that, if anything, the figure is an undercount.

“By diminishing the fatality and the overall burden of mortality with Covid-19, what people are trying to do is diminish the gravity of the situation for whatever agenda,” said Dr. Felipe Lobelo, a former officer at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who worked on the agency’s response to the H1N1 virus. “That will lead to relaxing of public health measures, or lack of funding for contact tracing, which is critical or testing, or all the things that we need to do in order to keep the virus at bay.”

To skeptics, it’s an understandable response to a biased media.

The idea that death tolls are overblown originates in a kernel of truth — the fact that some authorities are including suspected, but not confirmed, coronavirus deaths in their initial totals. Health specialists say the approach is essential to ensure that the death toll is not significantly undercounted in the moment.

“The danger is to have a misrepresentation of how lethal the virus is,” said Lobelo, now an associate professor at Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health.

In fact, researchers say, even the commonly accepted totals likely don’t capture the full scope of the pandemic’s fatalities. Early coronavirus deaths may have been misidentified, while others may have died from coronavirus without getting a test or going to the hospital.

--------------------

The result is that, like many things during Trump’s presidency, the death toll has become politicized. A recent Axios-Ipsos poll found 40 percent of Republicans said the death toll was overreported, while 65 percent of Democrats said it was underreported. The poll noted that people who watched Fox News were more likely to believe the death toll was overreported.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

It is amazing to read how very little we know on the subject, and I am referring to the CDC study recently released.

A number of studies I've read including the one you posted have shown a surgical mask to protect the people around the wearer from a higher proportion of the virus than if they were not wearing it. How much more do we need to know about that?

There is a reason why the CDC was initially against facemasks for the general populace to begin with.

What was the reason?

Not mentioned in any of these studies is the, for lack of a better phrase, placebo effect. Being powerless sucks, and if you are only told not to touch your face and wash your hands, well that is not very satisfying.

What does this mean? Aren't we talking about droplets and aerosols here? There is no placebo involving whether or not virus particles pass through facemarks or not.

Wearing a facemask though is a huge public statement that is also inconvenient. You are in effect making a statement, and feel that you are being proactive and making a sacrifice to beat the virus. For a lot of people that feels really good.

With what we know about the asymptomatic nature of a high number of cases now it's about saving someone's life if you catch it and don't know that.

It is not a statement. It's empathetic to other humans around you. It also may offer you some protection.

[PaxMondo]

So trying to take the politics out of it, here is my take from inside the industry.

Testing: First off, there is to date only one test unit (Roche) that meets standards. Others have been given provisional approval because something is better than nothing, but some of these have false negatives approaching 20% and false positives in excess of 40%. Given that the Roche design is being ramped up and has been licensed by numerous companies, but the units are still is incredibly short supply. Each state was provided a few initially. More are being shipped each week, but the US alone is short 100's of thousands of these units. (each unit processes 1200 samples/day, 5M sample/day is what the CDC projects the US needs to have control on the COVID-19 virus, then don't forget the operators and the sampling staff to make this all happen, none of which exists today.)

So having set the baseline that there is grossly insufficient testing AND a great deal of current testing is inaccurate, let's move to the death certificate. Completed by attending MD or ME, it is based upon what is known at time of death. If a patient dies of pneumonia, unless there is a corresponding positive diagnosis of COVID-19, the CoD is pneumonia. Some states have the ability to list contributing factors, others do not. Where they do not, the MD must decide which to put on the DC, guildelines there vary state to state, county to county, hospital to hospital. EDIT: By guideline I mean whether it was the originating or ultimate factor in the cause of death. So even if COVID-19 was the originating, by some counties direction only the ultimate (pneumonia) is listed.

Now we come to agencies/researchers trying to come up with COVID-19 data. Read the prior 2 paragraphs and tell me how you collect the data. The answer to date is that you choose other metrics. For example, the metric most widely used right now to determine whether a state has "crested" in its current COVID-19 epidemic is not any COVID-19 number. Instead they use the UW numbers where the researchers are tracking ICU beds occupied within each state against the total number in that state. As that number tapers off the inference is that COVID-19 has as well. Hospital bed occupancy is easily and regularly tracked data.

So, no matter which side of the aisle you sit, no matter what news you watch/listen, the bias is equal. Each side chooses the COVID-19 numbers they prefer and at this time there is no way to reject either set. Hopefuly next month (June) testing in US will reach ~10M/week which will start to enable us to get accurate data. This means sometime in August we will actually be able to make some statistically meaningful statements about the COVID-19 pandemic. That data will be peer reviewed and issued by CDC/NIH.

Until then, my recommendation is to keep you and your family safe. If you have family members over 60 that you wish to continue to see, then be very careful.

Be Safe!

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

ORIGINAL: mind_messing



Yeah...about that. You've seen the current unemployment rate right? Where are these "better jobs"?

I think you've a narrow view on it - skills is absolutely a component, but there needs to be an opportunity to apply those skills. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, so it's a challenge for, say, meat plant workers to get a new suit (and that assumes that the job is local and doesn't involve any transport costs).

The "bootstraps" narrative hasn't been working as many think it does for quite some time...

I think most people sleepwalk through life. By that I mean that, as they go about their daily affairs, opportunities arise and they take what is available instead of taking the time to plan a life. I submit that the primary word to focus on in the preamble is "pursuit" as it applies to pursuit of happiness.

I see where you're coming from, but I think being able to "plan" life is a luxury that comparatively few people are genuinely afforded. You get dealt the hand you play when you're born, and that then feeds in to anything else that follows on.

What do you want to be when you grow up? A plumber makes good coin. So does a weilder. the IT field has paid well. In California, within the community college and universities, the coin has been good to. In the end it is encumbent upon each of us to identify what we want and pursue it. I worked two part-time jobs and went to school full time when I was young. It paid off for me. Now in my case I was single and w/o children. In the state of California anyone can go to community college pretty much for free for their first two years of school. I know that you can take wielding classes and knock out a certification in less than a year. I know that you can go to school for driving a tractor-trailer - 3-5k and you can be on the road in about 6 weeks.
There are so many options available for us here in America. I assume the same is try in Europe and other parts of the world.

Of course, the options are there.

What was interesting from the PNAS (what a truly unfortunate acronym...) paper was the fact that the inequalities in social mobility have really been thrown in the spotlight in recent years in the US.

Plus, as the paper states, the notion of opportunity clashes quite harshly with the evidence that your socio-economic outcomes reflect your socio-economic origins...

I don't have problems with a bootstrap approach. Hell - join the Peace Corps or the military for a 3-year stint.

I don't think anyone does - the problem is the evidence that suggests it's not an approach that's working as people think it should.

FWIW, having socio-economic progression driven by a term of service in either an organisation like the Peace Corps or the military reeks of Robert Heinlein - not quite sure I'd approve.

I think that state and federal governments are still hoping that once we step back from the "Shelter-at-home" thing, businesses will perk up, people will start news businesses to take advantage of the misfortunes of others in the restaurant and hospitality sectors, and life will be great again.

There certainly will be keen entrepreneurs there to exploit a very fluid situation in a quick manner (eg converting closed restaurants to takeaway eating, adapting to physical distancing, etc), but I think it will not make up for what is a gutted sector. Given how much income is driven by foot-traffic and wider events (theatre, concerts etc), it doesn't look good...

lol - it's OK to agree to disagree. I'm fine with Heinlein to an extent. (I'm doing my part) Here in America, a single person can work three jobs and eat bolonia for as long as it takes to climbed up to the next wrung of the ladder. Hey - I coulda been born to wealthy parents and not had to work for the rest of my life... Things are so unfair! [:D][:D]

There are inequalities all over the place. I wanted to be a race-car driver. The closest I've been is on the dirt track (raced in two rallies - placed 3rd and 9th). I wanted to be a fire fighter. I served with Inyo County as an on-call fire fighter for 4 years. I wanted to be a doctor. I got my EMT license as part of being an on-call fire fighter. I wanted to be a soldier. I spent 12 years as a gun bunny.

I'm just trying to say that pursuit is important - it's what America was built on. A belief that I can be or do anything with the gifts of mind and body that my Higher Power granted to me. I'm white. Are there additional hurdles for the non-white in America? My experience and observation say "Yes" to that question. Is it better to be a male than a female when it comes to most careers in America? Again I would say yes. But I've met a lot of men and women of all shapes, sizes, and colors. Those that climbed up to a status of middle-class and higher here in America, for the most part, have had a dream that they pursued.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lowpe



I posted this before, but I believe Obvert was busy with other things.[:)]

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Maybe you could give a little context to why you're posing the link with me in mind?

Because it talks about several factors, two of which (masks, droplets) you might find relevant and interesting, and that you probably missed the original post because you were having a baby.

I've seen several studies previous to the one you posted which analysed in laboratory settings how facemarks can reduce the amount of a virus that is transmitted to the air as both droplets and aerosols.

The CDC also only mentioned previous studies, mostly environmental in nature (not in a lab) which studies influenza types, not Coronavirus. The study you linked before studied both, and found conclusive evidence of reduction in virus transmission when wearing a surgical mask.