Gensui jdsrae (J) vs SolInvictus (A). IJ War Council room

[traskott]

comprehensive development of your plan of conquest.

Now we will have to see if it's completed sucessfully [;)]

[jdsrae]

ORIGINAL: traskott

comprehensive development of your plan of conquest.

Now we will have to see if it's completed sucessfully [;)]

Yes, we will see whether the plan survives contact with the enemy, and my tactical ability (or lack of) will soon be on display

I’m not expecting the turn back before the weekend so still have a few more days to go off on some planning tangents.

[rustysi]

massive HI/LI expansion

Never massive, always moderate.

At any rate, based on (mostly Solli's) AAR's I like to shoot for HI production of ~15k. So that's 7500 HI in the game. Given that you'll capture some of that, you only need small increases to what you already have. In my current game I miscalculated a bit and went to 15400. Not a big deal as my fuel level is at 5M and oil is ~1.4M in mid '43. Both BTW are rising. I know that includes Magwe, but I challenge any Allied player to come and get it. He will eventually, but I can assure him the 'juice will not be worth the squeeze'.

Oh, and HI is at 1.3M and increasing ~100K/month.

[rustysi]

Kwangtung Army: GEN Umezu. 20th Army will move to China. All engineers will move to Fusan. All Artillery and Armour, most AA to move to China. Low numbered Divisions will move to China. GEN Umezu isn’t happy, but he was reminded that he only needs 8000+ AV to deter the Soviets, he doesn’t need his current 11450 AV or A grade Divisions to man border forts.

Right, this is where you'll get most of your ID's to start with. I like the 14th ID first, then the 8th (needs to recombine and get a new leader as it will typically pick Col. Klink to be the commander). Both of these divisions have the best arty config for Japan at game start.

[rustysi]

Pilot Training

Once fighter pilots are at 50/70/70 (ex/air/def) putting them on CAP 100%, range 0, will increase their experience pretty quickly. Even works well for Jake's, and will even increase their 'air' rating modestly.

BTW, you'll need to watch them, for after a while the moral will go down and fatigue up. This can take a week or more.

[rustysi]

we will see whether the plan survives contact with the enemy

No plan survives contact with the enemy.[:D]

[jdsrae]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Pilot Training

BTW, you'll need to watch them, for after a while the moral will go down and fatigue up. This can take a week or more.

Pilots, complaining about not getting their regulatory “crew rest” hours since 1941...
The sweet spot for set and forget “advanced” CAP training of 50+ Xp pilots is probably around 70% isn’t it?

Similar for FP pilots flying Naval Search. I noticed last AI game that their morale was ok if they flew NS about 70% but dropped pretty quickly if they flew more than that.
Except small groups up to about 5 aircraft size. They seem to be happy flying 100%.

[jdsrae]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Kwangtung Army: GEN Umezu. 20th Army will move to China. All engineers will move to Fusan. All Artillery and Armour, most AA to move to China. Low numbered Divisions will move to China. GEN Umezu isn’t happy, but he was reminded that he only needs 8000+ AV to deter the Soviets, he doesn’t need his current 11450 AV or A grade Divisions to man border forts.

Right, this is where you'll get most of your ID's to start with. I like the 14th ID first, then the 8th (needs to recombine and get a new leader as it will typically pick Col. Klink to be the commander). Both of these divisions have the best arty config for Japan at game start.

I am just going in numerical order, I think there are a few other A grade Divs in the 20s that I’d like to bring out when the garrison allows.
1,8,9,10,11 Divisions are first on the train and will move directly to the front.
12 and 14 Divs will pause at the border (Jehol?) so I can check that the AV level is still above 8000.
They will be my theatre reserve for the first week or so, to either react to a forward move somewhere In China, or add themselves to the break through.

A plan involving >10 Divisions on a narrow axis might survive contact!

[Bif1961]

I like the way you laid all that out for the Japanese it is a primer for anyone taking on the task of being the Japanese, ty for sharing that with the rest of us.

[jdsrae]

Cheers bif, this is my first PBEM so none of this theory has been tested in anger yet.

More time this evening to check industry and a few other things while I await the turn.
My war machine production is directly linked to my overall war strategy.
My aim is to win an auto victory on points and expenditure of HI points is geared to making that happen.
I am not aiming to get 4x allied VP by 1 Jan 1943 to win, but I will see if I can get close to 4x allied VP by Dec 43 so that if I miss that target, then I will still have 3x allied VP on 1 Jan 1944.

If I don't win an auto-victory by mid-1944 then the tide will have turned and I will be fighting a war of attrition to try to keep the points ratio to a draw by end game.

Ministry for War
Assistant Minister for War Production (Heavy Industry)

This graph shows my forecast for all things to do with HI point production and expenditure.
I don't use tracker so I'm not sure if I have the data behind this 100% but I started preparing this about a year ago, and tested it for nearly 12 months of game time in my last AI game. Generally, my forecasts in my AI game overestimated HI point spend, so my HI pool was larger than this curve shows before I decided to jump into a PBEM game.
I don't need this forecast to be 100% accurate, but I feel it is good enough for me to check actual vs this forecast on the 1st of each month and make adjustments as the war unfolds.

This graph shows that I don't expect the HI Points pool to get much above 500k and it should peak in mid 1943, with the HI pool largely spent by the end of Q1 1945. I have based my estimates of HI point expenditure on the following:

The HI stockpile line is just total HI Production minus the sum of all HI Expenditure.
If the war is still going after April 1945 I am not expecting full HI production to continue so HI spend will probably have to be matched to production with the HI pool staying close to zero from then on.

There will be no expansion to starting HI production factories. I have considered the option but I don't see a need for any more HI points to help achieve victory even by late 1944 and I have higher priority uses for the supply and fuel it would use.

Captured HI Production. Compared to the starting HI factories it is a small contributor, and is based on HI factories halving when they are captured and estimates of when I will capture and lose HI production centres (mainly in the DEI and China). I won't spend supply on repairing any damaged HI.

Production of airframes and engines steadily increases throughout the war. There may be some potential here for temporary production pauses to save on HI points but against a human opponent I am expecting to have to fight a lot harder than against the AI, especially in the air. On that basis, I don't see the value in saving HI points to use in 1944/45 if they could have been used to produce more aircraft to help win the war in 1943/44. If the war is still going by late 1945 some engine factories will switch off (if they haven't been bombed out first).

Production of vehicles and armaments will remain steady for the duration of the war. I am probably producing a bit higher than needed but am also expecting to have to fight harder on land against a human than against the AI so might need the extras to replace losses.

Production of IJN ships is based on standard production with no acceleration, with only 2 x SS delayed for a few months and two classes of SST halted. All other IJN ships will be built meaning that I need to try and win the war without accelerating CVs. If the war is still going in 1945 I will use the later arriving CVs to try and hold on for a draw. Once IJN shipbuilding starts to tail off I will start shutting down Naval Shipyards in late 1944 to avoid wasting the HI points.

Production of merchant ships is based on building early war CVEs and only TK and Std-A/B/C for conversion to TK that arrive in 1944. I won't accelerate any merchants and will halt lots of xAK ships as part of the orders for turn 2. Merchant shipyards will start being shut down in early 1944 to avoid wasting HI points.

The HI spend on pilot training ramps up through 1943 and remains steady for the rest of the war.

HI points spent on industry expansion is negligible after the first month, mainly focussed on aircraft and engine production changes.

[RangerJoe]

If anything, I would stockpile essential engines for the late war part of the game. That way, if the engine factories are targeted instead of the aircraft factories, you can still produce the aircraft. The stockpiles are also useful for the research bonus which, while it can be considered expensive can save in the long run by having more capable aircraft earlier.

[jdsrae]

Hey Joe, this graph shows I am not planning to have a shortage of engines or aircraft.

I've been trying to plan my pilot training too so I just added the pilot line to this graph.
What I don't like about it is that it doesn't look like I will be able to train enough pilots fast enough to fly all the aircraft I will produce. The pilots line shows the total number of raw recruits that will graduate each month into the Trainee Repacement Pool, but they are good for nothing until they are trained up. This is before I even get into splitting the trainee pilots to IJA/IJN and also to the various aircraft types...

I'm going to go with this aircraft production plan anyway and see what happens. If my opponent doesn't end up fighting forward through 1942/43 then I will be able to reduce this planned aircraft (and associated engine) production and build more Armament points instead. But I'm not sure I will need more Armament points either...

[rustysi]

The sweet spot for set and forget “advanced” CAP training of 50+ Xp pilots is probably around 70% isn’t it?

Yup.

I noticed last AI game that their morale was ok if they flew NS about 70%

It varies by unit, but I have noticed morale drops at this rate. In general its what I use.

so I can check that the AV level is still above 8000.

Yes, watch the 8000 AV level closely. I would recommend you leave ~8500, just in case. No risk taking a chance of the Soviets getting involved.

That level should give you about 9-10 ID's. When I was referring to 'buying' some out, I meant so they would be able to load onto ships for non-contiguous land areas.

The whole chart thing just hurts my head.[:D] I don't ever want to get that much into math any more. Did enough with a career in electronics.

At any rate it looks, OK. Just want to add some words on aircraft production. Produce only what early frames you need to sustain your pace of ops. If you have to go for the long haul, you'll need lots of late-war model aircraft.

[RangerJoe]

Produce a lot of frames that have a long time of use like the Jake. You can get the A6M5 in June of 1942 but you will go through a lot of A6M2s before then. The older aircraft can be used in training units, secondary fronts, and emergency use. Basically, use as many of the air frames up as you can so they won't sit around gathering dust and mold. I like the later Nell for the nice, long legs. [;)] It is not armored but it can carry a torpedo out to 21 hexes. It will also make a good search aircraft.

[rustysi]

What I don't like about it is that it doesn't look like I will be able to train enough pilots fast enough to fly all the aircraft I will produce.

Its not so much to say if you will have enough pilots to fly all your A/C, as much as it is to say if you will have enough for you air units. At any rate it is difficult to know if you are training enough for your needs, and I for one never seem like I'm getting ahead of the curve, so to speak. I think it is difficult to maintain enough training.

Its like I need three or four units training to keep one in the field. That's not really possible. What has helped me though is that in those 'inactive' areas where I have air units I keep them training one way or the other.

[rustysi]

I like the later Nell for the nice, long legs. It is not armored but it can carry a torpedo out to 21 hexes. It will also make a good search aircraft.

Don't ignore its ASW capability either.

[rustysi]

While I'm here, I was wondering if you realize that 'obsolete' air frames will be 'recycled' for HI. When a plane is no longer in use most of them go to the scrap heap and you get a small amount of HI in return. You don't want to do this as a rule, so not having hundreds of aircraft of a dozen types is not a bad thing. Just saying you'll get back a little.

The formula may be found in the manual, 13.8, p237.

[jdsrae]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

The whole chart thing just hurts my head.[:D]

Excel spreadsheets have been my friend to try and figure out how the IJ economy works.

The plan is to produce enough aircraft to dominate the early war without being excessive, then try to maintain local air superiority through the mid war, to break allied morale and achieve victory by early 1944.
If the game is still going beyond mid-1944 I will have failed to win the war, but I will keep fighting anyway to try for a draw.
I am not going "all in" during the early war at the expense of later, but I am also not going to skimp on early war aircraft production as I feel that puts winning the war in 1944 at unnecessary risk.
If the game does get to 1945 I have research setup from day 1 so that I will be pumping out the late war aircraft by then.

I have some early plans for what to do with various Divisions that start in China, but GEN Hata needs to conquer China first before I start planning that in too much detail.

I like the legs on Ms Nell too, primarily in the naval search role.

I have seen the formula for scrapping obsolete aircraft, but I figured it wasn't going to make a big difference to my rubbery forecast figures anyway so I didn't include it in my spreadsheet. If it happens it will be gravy.

[jdsrae]

This image shows my latest random thoughts on pilot training.

- IJNAF starts with 150 trainee pilots arriving / month, so need about 3 x 150 pilots in each of Basic and Advanced Training units
- IJAAF starts with 195 trainee pilots arriving / month, so need about 3 x 195 pilots in each of Basic and Advanced training
- IJN/IJA replacement rates increase to 480/615 per month from Jan 1944 which triples the training throughput need
- I will test and adjust numbers of groups of IJN/IJA flying different aircraft types to:
- Provide the numbers of pilots with the required skills to keep the Regular Force full of 70+ experience pilots
- Then try and drain the Pilot Trainee Pool and empty it each month to maximise flow through the pilot training pipeline
- Once the Pilot Replacement Pools are empty, grow the size of the Regular Force and adjust as combat losses allow
- This has led me to decide that I will not be moving 80+ experience pilots to Training Command as I see no benefit in accelerating pilots into the Trainee Pool prematurely, plus it would take the best pilots out of the Regular Force.
- That means that all pilots will stay in the Regular Force until KIA/MIA/WIA
- If I can maintain a training throughput of 150 IJN pilots/month, I need to lose less than 5 x IJN pilots/day KIA or MIA in order to grow the size of the Regular Force.
- Based on 195 IJA pilots/month, I need to lose less than 7 pilots/day or the IJA Regular Force will not be able to grow.

The ratio between Basic Training : Advanced Training : Regular Force that I start with is based on the numbers of units that I know will arrive at later dates, and their roles, eg: F/NF, FB, MB, TB, DB, R, PA, TR, etc
I will check monthly and adjust to try and balance trainees coming in to combat losses going out the other end of the system.

[RangerJoe]

If you were to put pilots into Tracom, some pilots should graduate early at a savings of 5 HI per pilot per month accelerated. Plus, it will keep them alive to put into later model, more survivable aircraft for defensive purposes in case you get to that point. Highly skilled fighter pilots will do good flying night fighters at night.

If you put the highly experienced pilots as instructors into your Training Groups, they will train faster and to a higher level since those highly skilled pilots will raise the overall average of the unit which the trainees will try to achieve.